The red line is the units sold and is the most significant value.  Unit sales in June 2008 were 123, in 2007, they were 186 and in 2006 they were 207.  In 2009, June unit sales of homes in Vilas and Oneida Counties were a disappointing 79 units.  We are selling 38% of the homes that we were in 2006 and 64% of what we were in 2008.

This is normally our prime selling season.  Our inventory is excellent and there are terrific values out there.  There simply are not many buyers.

We were more optimistic about the second half of 2009 but I'm afraid that our expectations were set too high.  Other areas of the country are rebounding but there is a definite downward trend here right now.  If you are a Seller that is not good news as further discounting will be necessary.  If you are a Buyer, this is excellent news as terrific buys are out there and more will be coming.

Improving!  The average numbers have been boosted by 4 $1M sales on the waterfront side in both Oneida and Vilas Counties.  This is one area where the sales (and showings) have been sluggish. 

Off-water home sales have also improved.  The market under $200K has been active and continues to improve. 

The volume of showings continues to its upward move.  So, things are looking better.  I don't wish to throw a damper on the improving market but interest rates have climbed.  This is due to a number of factors including the devalued dollar and increasing budget deficits on both the state and national level.

I'm still optimistic about the second half of 2009.  Inventory is excellent and there are terrific values.  Buyers are only beginning to discover the value that is out there.

The red line is the one to watch.  This represents the unit sales in both Oneida and Vilas Counties.  It has not shown a significant increase yet in 2009.  In fact, after a disappointing 2008, the 2009 numbers show fewer unit sales than 2008.  Not the best of news for Sellers.  I still remain optimistic for unit sales to be in the 150 to 200 unit range in August and September, much healthier than 2008.

Some good news here is that the number of listings is below last year.  Our inventory is still high relative to the numbers of active buyers.  The one concern that I have is the number of buyers in the higher priced properties has not risen much.  At present, there are 1492 lakefront properties in the Northwoods' MLS and only 43 have accepted offers.  That is only 2.8%, a very low number.

The volume of showings have increased dramatically in the past 4 weeks.  Low interest rates, a good inventory and motivated sellers; it's a very good time to be a Buyer!

Is the bottom here?  Possibly but by the looks of the chart it appears that we may be in the negative for some time yet.  However, the volume of sales is still so very low, it is impossible to come up with any definitive conclusions.

Sales volume remains low with 30 homes sold thus far on-water in Vilas County and 32 off-water.  In 2008, only 103 on-water homes were sold so it appears that volume of on-water will surpass 2008 levels.  Keep in mind that historically, more homes are sold in the last half of the year than the first half.

In Oneida County, there were 26 on-water homes sold and 73 off-water homes sold.  Last year, there were 138 on-water home sold in Oneida County so it would appear that volume for on-water will be lower in 2009 for lake homes.

Volume of showings have increased dramatically in the past 3 weeks.  Low interest rates, a good inventory and motivated sellers; it's a very good time to be a Buyer!

Not great but headed in the right direction!

 We now are showing a positive trend.  50 units sold in March and 76 units sold in April.  That is still well below previous March and Aprils:  2008 saw70 and 77, 2007 had 95 and 166 and 2006 had135 and 148.  So, we are not anywhere near the volume we saw two years ago but we are improving! 

 The big change was the amount of buyer traffic. There are many reports of increased showings and offers.  We are optimistic that June and July may see increases over 2008.  I can only attribute this to market optimism.

 The bottom may be behind us already. 

 Low interest rates, a good supply of money and sellers willing to accept reasonable offers all say one thing. There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

 Rather intimidating!  This is what I use to monitor average home values here in the Northwoods.  This looks at the average home value in these 4 segments, Oneida County On-Water, Oneida County Off-Water, Vilas County On-Water and Vilas County Off-Water.  What we are seeing are price reductions across the board.

The trend is not encouraging for Sellers but keep in mind that there still have been only 15 on-water home sales in Vilas and 16 off-water home sales in that same county.  The data is statistically not accurate because of the lack of data.  This cases two problems:  one oversupply.  Two, lack of comparables for appraisers.  Its' tough for an underwriter when there are so few comparables!

Things will improve!  The weather is warming up and showings are increasing!

There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

 Ahhh Spring!  Nothing like snow and cold to welcome in spring!  We know all about climate change here in the Northwoods!

 Real estate sales have been on the cool side as well.  I have no doubt that the present state of the economy has many potential buyers still on the sidelines.  The cold and snow here and to our south has not helped the market.  We did see a 25% increase in sales vs. February 09.  The chart will temper our enthusiasm in that this was still the second worse month in the past 10 years.  We take any sort of positive news as a glimmer of hope.

 Obviously Sellers are enthusiastic with a large increase in the number of listings.  Showing activity which is difficult to track is showing a definite increase.  I don't anticipate a huge April but I do anticipate a much stronger May and June than 2008.  Booked sales are definitely up but we are seeing more reticence with the banks.  Commercial loans are simply not available.  Home loans are another story.  Freddie Mac said today that the average 30 year fixed mortgage last week came in at 4.875%.

 There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

We reached (perhaps not the best choice of words) a new low for unit sales in February.  40 units sold in the month and that is the lowest monthly volume that we have experienced in the past 10 years.  I can speculate as to the cause: the economy and the very cold weather.

Last February was less than spectacular too with 53 units sold.  2007 saw 94 units sell and 2006 saw 102 units move.

Listing activity is good.  The supply is getting better daily.  Sellers are wanting to sell in 2009.  That is a good sign.  In 2008, we saw a lot of Sellers that were "waiting for the market to improve".  We may not see as much of that in 2009.

Interest rates remain at historically low levels.  The supply is good and getting better.  We remain optimistic about the Northwoods' real estate market. 

There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!

I won't be like Jim Kramer or other television pundits who regularly arouse the audience with sell off everything and put cash under the mattress.  Is the sky falling?  Are prices plummeting?   When you look at the average figures, one can begin to come to conclusions.  This is my first look at the averages from the first 58 days of 2009.  Obviously, the trend is troublesome to say the least.  In particular, the off-water homes seem to be falling off a cliff.

The one thing to remember here is that statistically we have so few sales to look at.  Sales in units were:  Vilas On-Water - 11 units, Oneida On-Water - 7 units, Vilas Off-Water - 9 units, Oneida Off-Water - 25 units.  It's very difficult to make accurate conclusions with so few sales.  In fact, the only accurate conclusion one can make is that unit volume is quite slow.  Combined total unit sales in January 2008 was 158 units compared with 58 units in 2009.  It is slow.

I will continue the mantra, it's a great time to be a buyer!

If groundhogs had shades, they would have them here.  In these parts, we normally get another 10 weeks of winter.  We would be ecstatic with 6 weeks.  However, we snowmobile here.  We ice fish here.  We snowshoe and ski here so winter is an integral part of our life.

Yesterday, spring training started in both the Grapefruit and Cactus Leagues.  It is one of my favorite things about spring, visiting the small ballparks where baseball is still a game, not a multi-million dollar industry.  The players are approachable and willing to sign autographs and greet fans. They often bring their own kids to the ballpark.

There is even some optimism in BrewTown.  Lots of concern over the loss of 38 wins between CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets but they have a young talented core.  Its always nice to see encased meat again running around the bases!

Thank God for aircraft and the ability to fly someplace warm when I want to!