Some good news for a change!  We reached over 100 units sold for the first time in 2009 and the most units since last October.  109 units sold in October vs. 122 last October.  It's a start! 

 The above are home unit sales by month for the past 24 months.  Some bad news is that 2009 unit sales have been below 2008 unit sales for the past 12 months.  One month, April, almost surpassed the previous year 76 vs. 77 units.  The largest gap was between December 2008 vs. December 2007 where 72 units were sold in 2008 vs. 179 units were sold in 2007.

One thing becomes quite clear on this chart is the beginning of the real estate slowdown.  If you throw out February, March and April of 2008, the rest of the year was relatively strong.  Those three months are historically slow periods in Northwoods real estate.  October 2008 was the final strong month for Northwoods real estate with sales of 122 homes.    Since that time, we have had only one month with sales above 80 units (August 2009 saw 84 units sold).

What will the future hold?  The uptick in volume is certainly welcome news for sellers and REALTORS.  The $8000 stimulus has helped in other parts of Wisconsin and the nation but it has not made a significant impact on Northwoods real estate.  I remain optimistic that 2010 will surpass 2009 and that Octobers number, while not outstanding, are a step in the right direction.  The one common element that the Buyers are looking for are "deals".

Some good news for a change.  The average sales price rose $10K since our last look at the average sales price in mid-September.  While home prices most likely did not rise by this value, the mix of home values did rise.  What the market has lacked all of 2009 are some medium priced homes.  These are homes in the $400-$600K range.  This used to be the strongest market segment.  This past month there have been some sales in this segment and that has increased the average sales values.

Look for this trend to continue as there are some real attractive buys out there.  I expect the average sales price for both Oneida and Vilas Counties to be in the upper $300K range by year end.  Many sellers are offering significant discounts.

 The key word that buyers are looking for right now is "deals".  They are looking for homes below appraised, below assessed, bank-owned and fire sales.  They are willing to sacrifice desired features and benefits for the right price.

At least it is not going down!   The blue line is new listings while the red line represents sold units.   A definitive trend has evolved this summer and to REALTORS and sellers this will come as no surprise.  The volume was down in the summer of 2008 to around 120 units per month (homes and condos).  This summer, it's hovered around 75 per month, roughly a 35% drop.  The summers of 2005 through 2007 saw averages in the 200 units per month area.  So, we are moving approximately 37% of the homes that we were in previous summers.

 The news is not all negative.  The 84 units that sold in August were the most sold since October of 2008.  As far as the year-to-date numbers, the entire MLS is roughly 33% down from 2008 but that is better than the -45% we were down earlier in 2009.  We are digging ourselves out but at a sluggish pace.

 Interestingly, the market below $200,000 and above $1M are the most active (or lease inactive if you prefer).  The stimulus program is helping those in the lower market.  There are some great values out there for those who have been waiting on the sidelines.

There are market segments that are doing well.  Then there are some that are not doing so well.  Here is a chart of home sales the past 12 months compared with 2006.

 Price Range     Listed 2009     Sold 2009        Ratio     Listed 2006        Sold 2006         Ratio

$0 - $200K          1169                442              37.8         1293                 654              50.5

$200K-$500K       1076                225              20.9         1136                 430              37.8

$500K - $1M         318                  42               13.2          270                   84              31.1

$1M and up           82                   12               14.6           66                    12              18%

 This chart illustrates what market segments are hurting the most.  The $500,000 to $1M home market is off by 50% from 2006.  This represents the "lake home" market.  The $200K to $500K is down from 430 units to 225 units. The luxury $1M market is off but unit sales remain the same.

 Some good news here is that showing activity is way up.  Perhaps we will see a robust fall?  There has never been a better time to be a buyer!

Not going down!  That's the good news!  The average numbers did not decline from the past 30 days and we can all be thankful for that piece of good news (except if you are a buyer).   Some other good news is that Vilas County Transfer Tax is down only 15% from 2008.  That is better than it has been.   Transfer tax is the .3% that all sellers pay to the state when they sell their property.  For 2009, we are presently down 40% year to date.  So, the market is not falling as fast as it was earlier in the year. 

Is it time to celebrate?  Anyone who knows me realizes that anytime is a time to celebrate!!  However if you are a buyer it may be time to pop the champagne.  If you are a Seller, its still a bit of a drag out there..  The stimulus package has not improved the real estate market here in the Northwoods.  We still have many summer visitors as there is no place on earth better to be than the Northwoods.  The inventory is excellent.  Interest rates are very good, too.  There are incentives for those first time home buyers as well.  Has there ever been a better time to buy?

The red line is the units sold and is the most significant value.  Unit sales in June 2008 were 123, in 2007, they were 186 and in 2006 they were 207.  In 2009, June unit sales of homes in Vilas and Oneida Counties were a disappointing 79 units.  We are selling 38% of the homes that we were in 2006 and 64% of what we were in 2008.

This is normally our prime selling season.  Our inventory is excellent and there are terrific values out there.  There simply are not many buyers.

We were more optimistic about the second half of 2009 but I'm afraid that our expectations were set too high.  Other areas of the country are rebounding but there is a definite downward trend here right now.  If you are a Seller that is not good news as further discounting will be necessary.  If you are a Buyer, this is excellent news as terrific buys are out there and more will be coming.

Improving!  The average numbers have been boosted by 4 $1M sales on the waterfront side in both Oneida and Vilas Counties.  This is one area where the sales (and showings) have been sluggish. 

Off-water home sales have also improved.  The market under $200K has been active and continues to improve. 

The volume of showings continues to its upward move.  So, things are looking better.  I don't wish to throw a damper on the improving market but interest rates have climbed.  This is due to a number of factors including the devalued dollar and increasing budget deficits on both the state and national level.

I'm still optimistic about the second half of 2009.  Inventory is excellent and there are terrific values.  Buyers are only beginning to discover the value that is out there.

The red line is the one to watch.  This represents the unit sales in both Oneida and Vilas Counties.  It has not shown a significant increase yet in 2009.  In fact, after a disappointing 2008, the 2009 numbers show fewer unit sales than 2008.  Not the best of news for Sellers.  I still remain optimistic for unit sales to be in the 150 to 200 unit range in August and September, much healthier than 2008.

Some good news here is that the number of listings is below last year.  Our inventory is still high relative to the numbers of active buyers.  The one concern that I have is the number of buyers in the higher priced properties has not risen much.  At present, there are 1492 lakefront properties in the Northwoods' MLS and only 43 have accepted offers.  That is only 2.8%, a very low number.

The volume of showings have increased dramatically in the past 4 weeks.  Low interest rates, a good inventory and motivated sellers; it's a very good time to be a Buyer!

Is the bottom here?  Possibly but by the looks of the chart it appears that we may be in the negative for some time yet.  However, the volume of sales is still so very low, it is impossible to come up with any definitive conclusions.

Sales volume remains low with 30 homes sold thus far on-water in Vilas County and 32 off-water.  In 2008, only 103 on-water homes were sold so it appears that volume of on-water will surpass 2008 levels.  Keep in mind that historically, more homes are sold in the last half of the year than the first half.

In Oneida County, there were 26 on-water homes sold and 73 off-water homes sold.  Last year, there were 138 on-water home sold in Oneida County so it would appear that volume for on-water will be lower in 2009 for lake homes.

Volume of showings have increased dramatically in the past 3 weeks.  Low interest rates, a good inventory and motivated sellers; it's a very good time to be a Buyer!

Not great but headed in the right direction!

 We now are showing a positive trend.  50 units sold in March and 76 units sold in April.  That is still well below previous March and Aprils:  2008 saw70 and 77, 2007 had 95 and 166 and 2006 had135 and 148.  So, we are not anywhere near the volume we saw two years ago but we are improving! 

 The big change was the amount of buyer traffic. There are many reports of increased showings and offers.  We are optimistic that June and July may see increases over 2008.  I can only attribute this to market optimism.

 The bottom may be behind us already. 

 Low interest rates, a good supply of money and sellers willing to accept reasonable offers all say one thing. There never has been a better time to be a Buyer!