In Another Good Sign For The Housing Market, Builders Are Clearing Out Their Inventory. - 07/06/09 07:50 PM

If you only saw the headlines this week, you may have missed another positive sign in the housing market.
According to the Census Bureau, the supply of newly-built homes for sale fell to 10.2 months in May, its lowest level in 10 months.
Unfortunately, the New Homes Sales story wasn't positioned as a positively by the press.  Instead, the most common headline on the data read "New Home Sales Dip 0.6%" with many journalists referring to the figures as "weak" or "disappointing".
Only, that's not completely true.
See, one of the nice elements of the monthly New Home Sales report is its footnote section … (15 comments)

Home Prices Show Improvement In 19 of the 20 Case-Shiller Markets. - 07/06/09 06:06 PM

Tuesday -- for the first time in a long while -- members of the press met the monthly Case-Shiller Index data with enthusiasm.  And why shouldn't they?  19 of the 20 measured markets showed a slowing pace of home price decline in April.
Here are some of the headlines about the story:
Case-Shiller Home Prices Decline Only 18% (Business Week) Case-Shiller Less Bad (Seeking Alpha) Home Prices In 20 Cities Drop Less Than Expected (Bloomberg) Now, the headlines feel negative, but they're actually highlighting some key strengths in April's figures.  For example, nearly half of the Case-Shiller markets posted gains in April … (0 comments)

With The Year Half-Over, How Accurately Did Economists Predict 2009. - 07/06/09 06:02 PM
At the start of the year, the "experts" made a lot of predictions about the U.S. economy and what to expect in 2009. 

Some said housing would rise. Some said housing would fall. Some said mortgage rates would rise. Some said mortgage rates would fall. And nobody predicted just how big the government's stimulus package would be.
Now, on June 30, with the year officially half-over, it's as good a time as any to remember that people are much better at interpreting the past than predicting the future.  Economists can make educated guesses about the future, but they're guesses nonetheless. 
… (0 comments)

What's Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : June 29th, 2009. - 07/06/09 05:58 PM

Mortgage markets improved last week on the heels of benign economic data and a non-inspired press release from the Federal Reserve.
Aside from trader momentum, 3 market-moving events helped set the pace last week:
Housing data hinted at strength. Jobless data showed softness. The Fed said growth appears on-track. The combination of the three created volatility that -- for just the second time in the last 8 weeks -- worked in favor of rate shoppers.
Mortgage rates changed a lot last week, but they trended lower overall.
Already, however, markets are looking ahead to this week's holiday-shortened trading sessions.  There is … (0 comments)

A Simple Explanation Of The Federal Reserve Statement (June 24th, 2009 Edition) - 07/06/09 05:51 PM

The Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged today within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent. 
The Fed also reiterated its plan to support the mortgage market to the tune of $1.5 trillion.
In its press release, the FOMC noted that the U.S. economy is not slowing with the same speed versus just two months ago and that financial markets, in general, are improving. 
These are two signs that the country may be emerging from recession, if it hasn't already.
The news isn't all good, however.  The Fed made a point to highlight the potential … (0 comments)