I've added a new feature to my website today, the Hottest 20 Communities in Calgary (in terms of MLS sales turnover). Here's the latest numbers as of December 2008:

Top 20 Hot Communities
as of December 1, 2008

Rank	Community	Average Absorption Rate (last 6 months)
1	Scarboro	2.14
2	Midnapore	2.20
3	Douglasglen	2.25
4	Collingwood	2.27
5	Vista Heights	2.53
6	Macewan Glen	2.60
7	Sundance	2.71
8	Lake Bonavista Downs	2.93
9	Lake Bonavista	2.95
10	Country Hills	2.96
11	Hidden Valley	2.98
12	Coventry Hills	3.08
13	Cougar Ridge	3.09
14	St Andrew's Heights	3.13
15	University Heights	3.15
16	East Mayland Heights	3.19
17	Riverbend	3.21
18	Evergreen	3.25
19	Fairview	3.27
20	Dalhousie	3.32

Condos: The absorption rate for condos at the end of September 2008 stands at 6.08 - a new high, and now breaking the psychological barrier of 6 - so that is more than 6 months of inventory of condos currently listed on the MLS system. The median price for 2 and 1 bedroom condos now stand at $262.5k and $222.0k respectively. This is down from $300.0k and $255.5k 12 months ago - price drops of 12.5% and 13.1% respectively in the last 12 months. In the last 3 months alone, median prices have fallen 6.9% and 4.1% for 2 and 1-bed condos respectively, supporting my feeling from the street that the fall in condo prices is starting to gain momentum and becoming "dramatic". See Chart A - Absorption Rate and Chart C - Median Prices

Note: See my market report from February 2008 for some insight into why the difference between the condo and house markets.

Houses: The absorption rate for houses at the end of September 2008 stands at 4.97 - still well in the territory to be considered a strong "buyer's market" but a slight improvement over the 5.12 it was last month and better than the high water mark of 5.47 in May of this year. So the SF House market seems to have stabilized and is very slowly improving over the last 6 months. Median prices continue to fall though as one would expect in a strong "buyer's market". The median price now stands at $395k, down from $420.5k (-6.1%) 12 months ago. The median price of houses three months ago was $408k, a drop of 3.1%. So the SF House market continues to be very soft and prices are falling, but not as dramatically as with condos. See Chart A - Absorption Rate and Chart C - Median Prices

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Advice For Sellers:
My advice to sellers continues to be to emphasize the critical importance of pricing your property for the new reality. It is crucial to get ahead of the price drops in this market. Most sellers instinctively want to err on the high side when choosing a list price - it is natural to do so. Frankly, it is also a mistake in this market. If anything you want to err on the aggressive side with respect to list price in this market.

For condo sellers this advice is even more important. There is 6 months of inventory of condos on the MLS system - and then much more in the form of new condos not listed on the MLS. And your options are running out too - the official vacancy rate in Calgary has risen from 2.0% in the spring of this year to 4.0% this month (and unofficially my sources in the property management business tell me it is now more like 4.5%). So I was advising many potential sellers who were reluctant to price their property for the new reality to consider renting out their condos instead - but now, so many people are doing just that, that the softness has spread from the condo resale market to the rental market. Condo sellers, you are in a very tough spot with limited options I'm afraid.

Advice For Buyers:
It's a great time to buy - simple as that. Prices are falling and the selection is great, even in the tighter SF House market. And if you are a condo buyer, well congratulations! It is an especially great time to buy a resale condo. If you are concerned that prices may fall even further and are wondering if you should wait, see my market report from last month where I discuss in detail some of the factors you should consider in deciding whether now is the time to buy for you.

Mortgage Availability Suddenly Becomes an Issue

Normally the mortgage rate update is the briefest part of my monthly market report, but there have been significant developments in the last month (and days) that are worth mentioning.

First, the "credit crunch" has hit home in Canada in the last few weeks. There is not nearly as much money out there for lenders to lend to home buyers. As a result, some people who would have been able to get a mortgage just a month ago will no longer qualify or will only qualify at higher interest rates or with a larger downpayment. These include the self employed, the underemployed, people who are a bit stretched financially and people with less-than-ideal credit. It is noticeably more difficult to get a mortgage today than it was just a few weeks ago.

Second, even though the Bank of Canada has lowered their trend-setting Overnight Rate (in a dramatic coordinated move with other federal banks around the world), it is not showing up in mortgage rates. In fact mortgage rates, both fixed and variable, are on the rise. See the weekly mortgage rate trend chart here. There are a few different reasons for this: 1. Banks are trying to recover their losses on the financial markets. 2. Banks/lenders have less money to lend, so they feel they can charge higher rates (supply and demand). 3. Banks/lenders are concerned about falling house prices and mortgage-defaults, and want higher returns because of what they see as higher risk.

So as a buyer, it is now more important than ever to get a mortgage pre-approval before home shopping. And as a seller it is now more important than ever to confirm your buyer has mortgage pre-approval before accepting an offer. The days of easy mortgage-access are over for now.

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

 

Strong Buyer's Market Continues

The Calgary real estate market remains in territory that I think is best described as a "very much a buyer's market" according to the July 2008 MLS stats. Total Calgary Metro listings at the end of July was 9217, and properties sold was 1848, yielding an overall Absorption Rate of 5.15. (See Chart A and Chart A2) Although the number of listings continues to come down since the "high water mark" of 10,617 in May 2008, there are still far more properties on the market than there are buyers to absorb them. This continues to bring prices down as sellers who are serious about selling adjust to the facts of the market.Single Family (SF) House sales continue to outpace condos. The absorption rate for SF Houses stands at 4.92 at the end of July and for condos it is 5.72 a difference of 0.8. This is a significant gap and something condo owners need to consider when selling. Overall the market is very slow, and for condos it is even slower. This is not a monthly statistical "blip" - this divergence of the SF house and condo markets began in December 2007 and the gap has grown since. I predict condos will continue to lag behind houses in both sales and price for another 12 months or so, until the inventory of new condos coming on stream is absorbed. This bodes very well for condo buyers, as prices are coming down, but obviously bodes ill for condo sellers for the same reason.

(For interactive versions of all the charts in this report click here)

Median prices stand at $408,500 for houses, $267,500 for 2-bed condos, and $235,000 for 1-bed condos at the end of July. In July 2007 median prices stood at $435,000, $295,000, $255,000, for SF Houses, 2-bed and 1-bed condos respectively. So the drop in median prices over the last 12 months: $26,500 (6.1%), $27,500 (9.3%), and $20,000 (7.8%) for SF Houses, 2-bed and 1-bed condos respectively. Note that the drop in median price of 2-bed condos is greater than that of SF Houses - evidence that the lagging condo market is already showing itself in fairly dramatic price drops in condos. See Chart C.

For Sellers:
So my advice to sellers is the same as last month but perhaps with stronger emphasis; It is crucial that you price your property for the new reality - not just taking into account the price drops of the last year, but that even with those price drops, the market is still no where close to being in balance with respect to supply and demand. So in this market, if you are a seller, you want to get ahead of the curve - if you price your property incorrectly, it will simply sit there, and by the time you reduce the price, the market will have adjusted further and you will still be behind the game. Consider your list price very carefully - you want to be ahead of the curve, not behind it, in this market.

Sellers should also consider spending money to sell their home which they wouldn't in a more balanced market. For example, staging a vacant home or bringing in a staging consultant to "freshen up" a furnished home. These can be expensive services, but with so many homes on the market - a $300 to $5000 staging can often have a greater effect than a further list price adjustment of say, $10,000. Bringing in handyman to do minor repairs and upgrades can also be a wise expenditure in this very competitive market.

For Buyers:
My advice to buyers is that if the time is right for you personally to buy a new home then do it - you've got a great selection, and you can get more for money (almost 10% more to be precise) than last year. It is called a "buyer's market" for a reason - this is your market!

I get some buyers asking me if they should wait to see if prices drop further. My answer is that it depends on your personal situation and your priorities. If getting the lowest possible price was the only consideration in when to buy a home then there is really only one time to buy a home - when the market bottoms out before it begins to rise again. But there is problem with that; we never know when this instant in time is upon us - we only know looking back after the market bottomed out. But even more significantly, getting the lowest possible price is just one of the important considerations in when to buy. For example, you also want to consider the selection out there - the more homes on the market, the more likely you are to get everything you want in a new home. Also, if a first time buyer, you want to consider whether the amount you will save by waiting will be more or less than the amount you will save in rent by buying now. Also, you will want to consider your motivation for buying - if you want your own place, for example, to get away from an annoying roommate, then is it really worth putting off this dream for another 6 months to potentially get a better price?

So the answer to the "when to buy" question is a very personal one - it all depends on your priorities. But that is what good Realtors help their clients do - examine your priorities, talk about the pros and cons, and give you all the information for you to make the right decisions. If you are thinking of buying, call your favorite Realtor (suggestion: me) and schedule an appointment to discuss the market and your situation.

Mortgage Rates Steady
Only minor changes in mortgage rates this month. The one-year and five-year closed rates (average of all lenders) stand at 6.18% and 6.38% respectively. The variable rate is 4.35%. In the July, the Bank of Canada declined to change its trend-setting overnight lending rate - the Board of Governors is not scheduled to meet again until early September, so expect no significant changes in August unless there is an unexpected surpise in the financial markets. See my Mortgage Rate Chart here.

Andrew Kyle, B.ASc., is a REALTOR^® with Royal LePage Foothills and a Certified Condominium Specialist.

I came across this interesting 3-part series of videos on YouTube today. It's an explanation of what exactly happened regarding the sub-prime mortgage crisis. "How we got here" in otherwords. It's interesting stuff - good background info for Realtors, mortgage professionals and our clients. The video blogger is David Waring and he really seems to know his business. He runs the investing site: http://www.informedtrades.com

Part 1:

Part 2:

Part 3:

Below is my weekly market stats update. I call your attention to a growing gap between the condo and house markets (see the second chart and the red arrrow). If this trend continues I'll write in detail about it in next month's Monthly Market Report (in about 2 weeks). In the meantime... my advice is be careful if you are selling a condo - it is crucial that it be priced right if you are serious about selling it. For background you may want to read my Monthly Market Report from February 2008 or my blog post here from a few weeks ago where I talk about predictions regarding this emerging trend.