When I tell people I am a Realtor, I get the big sigh, a down trodden expression and the inevitable question, "how is the market these days : ( ?" In the grand scheme of things, it is pretty darn good. Housing is one of Maslow's hierarchy of needs and there will never not be a market. It is either a buyer's market or a seller's market. When it changes from one to the other, it is not terrible. You simply make adjustments. In order to do this effectively, you need to analyze and understand the market. This is where I come in. A little education is good for everyone and people who know me understand that I love to dispel a good myth. If you are not analytical in nature, read on and you may just learn something you didn't know. This information should not come as a surprise, however, that is not what I often find...
As for the market...I will give you my take on the matter. The problem we have is that the media has chosen to take a local phenomenon and make it into a national issue. What weather do you check in the morning? Is it the national weather? Is there one national temperature? No, you check the local weather...because it is different in each location. The real estate market is just like the weather (and changes just as frequently I might add). It is localized and should be evaluated from a local perspective. There are six economic elements that determine the health of a market. They are:
1. Unemployment
2. Interest Rates
3. Home Sales
4. Housing Affordability
5. Foreclosure Rates
6. Housing Vacancy Rates
If you are talking about Michigan (which most of the news programs are...) then all six economic elements are in the toilet. The state has major problems, for example 25% of all foreclosures in the country are from this state. However, if you are talking about Hampton Roads Virginia...
1. Virginia unemployment is at 3.5%, this is the lowest it has been in six years. The national average is 4.8%
2. Interest rates are at a historical low. Talk to a mortgage broker or lender is you want current figures but they are consistently around 6% lately and are forecasted to stay there for some time. You can find out more information on http://www.realtytrac.com/.
3. Home sales in Virginia for 2007were more than 24,000 units. There were over 49,000 listings so inventory is high and sellers are willing to offer incentives, which is a good thing. On the flip side, housing prices haven't fallen (actually they were up by .3% in 2007) so home buyers are getting value for their money. You can find more information at http://www.ofheo.gov/ and http://www.macromarkets.com/.
4. Housing Affordability indexes are available at http://www.realtor.org/ under local housing affordability index. In general, the best month was Oct of 2007 where median family income was 119% of what was necessary to qualify for a median priced home. Buyers that are serious are able to buy and that is a good thing. It also means that people who need unconventional interest only, arm, sub-prime products are not able to buy and that is also a good thing.
5. Foreclosure rates..everyone thinks this one is off the charts but they would be looking at the wrong local market. Virginia is ranked 24th in the nation in foreclosure rates with only 0.514%. Again, you will never get an accurate picture from the media since they generally focus on the top five hardest hit areas of the country because that makes for a better story. Michigan, Florida, Colorado, California, etc...do not apply to Virginia.
6. Housing vacancy rates should be considered from all aspects including new construction, resales and rentals. High vacancy rates generally occur when an area has a mass migration out in order for people to find jobs. This is occurring in Michigan since the market is not good there for real estate, people are unable to sell their homes for what they are worth so they are leaving them vacant and moving to another area to find work. This is not occurring in Virginia and our vacancy rates are consistent. You can find out more from http://www.census.gov/.
What I am saying is that a national temperature is no more valid than a national real estate market. You should base your decisions on facts, not hype and perception. Talk to a realtor in your local area or do the research on your own at the sites I have listed above. A little education goes a long way towards making good decisions. An informed consumer is the best kind of consumer. Contact me if you would like more information. Have a great day!
Angel Boord, e-Pro REALTOR
RE/MAX Allegiance 575 Lynnhaven Parkway, Suite 100 Virginia Beach, VA 23452
Office: 757-217-1900 x110 cell:757-705-0202 email: home4u@angelboord.com