http://www.bainmortgage.com/MortgageMarketWeekInReview

Newsletter-April 29th, 2013
Provided by
Dana Bain & Robin Dunbar Bain

Dana Bain
Premiere Mortgage Services

www.BainMortgage.com

11 Malvern Hill Road
Sterling, MA 01564
Phone: (978) 422-2311
Fax: (978) 422-2313
E-Mail: dana@bainmortgage.com

  
 
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Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices finished the week near unchanged, which kept rates relatively in check.Rates fell Monday as stocks were weaker and the data disappointed.Existing home sales came in at 4.92m versus the expected 5.1m mark.The small improvements were erased Thursday in response to the weekly jobs data.Weekly jobless claims came in at 339k versus the expected 351k.Fortunately most of the trading this week was within a narrow range.Rates moved up and down throughout the week but finished flat to better by 1/8 of a discount point.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic
Indicator

Release
Date & Time

Consensus
Estimate


Analysis
Personal Income and Outlays

Monday, April 29,
8:30 am, et

Up 0.4%,
Up 0.1%

 Important.A measure of consumers’ ability to spend.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
PCE Core Inflation

Monday, April 29,
8:30 am, et

 Up 0.2% Important.Measures price increases for all domestic personal consumption.Weaker figure may help rates improve.
Q3 Employment Cost Index

Tuesday, April 30,
8:30 am, et

 Up 0.2% Very important. A measure of wage inflation.Weakness may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Confidence

Tuesday, April 30,
10:00 am, et

 58.7 Important.An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
ADP Employment

Wednesday, May 1,
8:30 am, et

 132k Important.An indication of employment.Weakness may bring lower rates.
ISM Index Wednesday, May 1,
10:00 am, et		 51.4 Important.A measure of manufacturer sentiment.Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Fed Meeting Adjourns

Wednesday, May 1,
2:15 pm, et

 No rate changes Important.Few expect the Fed to change rates, but some volatility may surround the adjournment of this meeting.
Weekly Jobless Claims

Thursday, May 2,
8:30 am, et

 329k Important.An indication of employment.Higher claims may result in lower rates.
Preliminary Q1 Productivity

Thursday, May 2,
8:30 am, et

 Up 0.1% Important.A measure of output per hour.Improvement may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Trade Data

Thursday, May 2,
8:30 am, et

 $44.3b deficit Important.Affects the value of the dollar.A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Employment

Friday, May 3,
8:30 am, et

7.6%,
Payrolls +110k

 Very important.An increase in unemployment or weakness in payrolls may bring lower rates.
Factory Orders

Friday, May 3,
10:00 am, et

 Up 1.2% Important.A measure of manufacturing sector strength.Weakness may lead to lower rates.

Busy Week

Economic data is the roadmap investors and traders use to drive their trading decisions.As a general rule, economic data that is lower than expectations is good for bonds/interest rates and bad for stocks.The opposite is also true, better than expected data is good for stocks and bad for bonds/interest rates.The reason is simple, weak data will prompt the Federal Reserve to keep rates low.This week is packed with “event” risk.Rates are historically low.Floating into the data is risky.A cautious approach to float/lock decisions would be prudent.
 
 
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MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW Newsletter-April 29th, 2013
 

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