Belmont closed out the month of September with less than a stellar performance. There were 18 sales which is respectable--a couple more than last month--but still shy of even a normal market.

Is this still a Buyer’s market? We think so.

 

 

 

 

(Click on thechart to see an enlarged version).

 

Look at the percent a seller receives of their asking price. Few homes are selling over the asking price and if they are it's usually because the home is deeply discounted in the first place.

Another sign is the time a home languishes on the market, as expressed in Realtor speak as D.O.M. or Days on Market. Currently it stands at 45 days with six of the sales being listed for 3/4 of a year or more. One sale had to of broken the all time record when it finally closed after being on the market 700 days!

The median price took another beating in Belmont as the raw numbers show another 5% decrease over July values. Adjusted for smaller or larger homes selling, that percent is halved, but still, a 2.5% decrease is a downward trend that we hope will soon slow.

It's easy to see the numbers for June are much better for sellers than they were in May. Almost all indicators are up signaling a stronger market for sellers in June as compared to last month.

Looking at the same period over last year a similar pattern arises. Almost every indictor is in the seller's favor.

More homes sold this June and at a faster rate. The percentage the seller received was a healthy 98% of their asking price. The month's inventory-the time it would take to sell all of the homes currently listed at the current pace of sales-has dropped to a healthy 3.1 months-far below the national average of over 10 months.

Of course there's one nagging indicator which isn't easily seen, and certainly not reported by real estate groups or even the media. Although the median price is up in June 4.5% over May, the size home sold in June was a whopping 17% larger. Over the same period last year, the difference is even more staggering. So even though the median price is essentially the same as it was in June of 2008, the size home you get for you money has increase 25%.

What this all means is buyers are getting better deal this year than last.

Why then is the percent the seller received of their asking price higher than it was last year? Probably because sellers are pricing their homes more realistically; and although they are getting closer to their asking price as a percent, in real dollars they are receiving far less.

Looking at San Mateo County as a whole we see the same positive statistics. More sales, higher median price, fewer days on the market and less inventory. What is not available for the entire county is the median size home sold so we really have no idea if the median values are rising, or simply larger homes are selling. We tend to believe it's the latter.

 

 

	May-09	Jun-09	Δ from May	Jun-08	Δ from '08
Median	$840,000	$878,000	$38,000	$877,000	$1,000
DOM	46	25	21	43	18
Month's Inventory	4	3	1	3	0
Sales	14	21	7	20	1
Inventory	62	62	0	61	1
% Received	98%	98%	0.0%	91%	7.00%
Median Size Home	1,710	2000	290	1600	400
Price per Sq. Ft.	$502.00	$493.00	$9.00	$548.00	$55.00

 

What's happening in our local market is the number one question we receive so here's the good the bad and the ugly for May 2009 in Belmont.

The Good

The number of homes sold in creased in May to 15 from April's paltry 12. Still, compared to 2004 when 32 homes sold there's not a lot of activity.

The number of days it took to sell a home in Belmont went from 48 in April down to only 37 in May.

Of the 15 sales in May, 5 sold over the asking price, none sold at asking, and 10 sold under the seller's asking price.

And for buyers wanting to get into a home, interest rates remain low--for now--and home affordability is on the rise.

The Bad

Homes which were originally overpriced took a beating.

Overprice Homes	10	Homes Priced Well	5
DOM	76.8	DOM	18.8
Percent Received of Original List Price	89%	Percent Received of Original List Price	101.4%
Real Dollar change	$67,000 less	Real Dollar Change	$5,000 more

 

The number of overpriced homes reaching a factor of 2-1 over well priced homes is indicative of the disconnect between what sellers feel their home is worth as compared to what a buyer will actually pay. It's clear by looking at the numbers though that the number one mistake a seller can make continues to be overpricing their home.

The Ugly.

The median price in Belmont continued its correction in May.

	May 2009	April 2009	May 2008	May 2007
Median Price	$820000	$775,000	$1,098,750	$1,036,733
* Corrected for size of home	$820,000	$855,000	$952,300	$1,106,533
May Δ in percent		-4.09%	-13.94%	- 25.89%

 *We endeavor to report the true median price as accurately as possible. In doing so, we must take into consideration if larger or smaller homes are selling in a given period.

*Date retrieved form the Multiple Listing Service of San Mateo County.

The homes sale report for April shows a continuing slide in both sales and median price for the Peninsula cities, though we appear to have a lull in the action.

Take the median price of single family homes in San Mateo County for example. In April of 2008 it stood at $925,000. This April that number came in at $610,000-a whopping 34% decrease. Sales have dropped 15% over last year at the same time and 40% off the peak of the market in 2005. Yet every month so far this year the median price has been creeping back up-ever so slightly. Exciting news? Not really. The median price almost without fail creeps up this time of year.

 (Click on the image to see a full sized graphic) 

For Belmont, April home sales came in at a disappointing 13 for the entire month, a 38% decrease over last year's more typical 21 sales for the month.

The median price came in at $775,000, considerably off of the $930,000 reported just last April. The size homes which sold last April were only slightly larger-3.7%. Which means that the calculated median home price loss of 16.6% might be closer to only 13%, if that makes anyone feel any better.

And don't expect to get close to what you are asking. On average in Belmont sellers are receiving only 94.84% of their asking price and it is taking about 33% longer for them to get less for their home.  Don't think that isn't hurting agents too. Agents who are listing homes for sale area finding it takes longer to sell a home. Longer listing periods can mean thousands more in advertising costs and with values dropping, thousands less in commissions.

Click here to see April sales report for surrounding cities.

The home sales are in for Belmont for the month of March 2009 and they exhibit all the indications of a continuing declining market. We wrote a short post on what the numbers mean when compared to the same period just a few years back.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is the same period just twoyears ago...

If you're wondering where the housing market is headed in Belmont you can get a good indication by these two snap shots taken for the month of March 2007 and 2009.

We use 2007 as a benchmark since it was the last year where the impact of the housing crises had not yet been realized in our market.

Here are some startling yet revealing statistics:

 

The far right column of this chart says it all-every indicator in red illustrates a deterioration of the seller's market which has prevailed for so long.

You may notice that even though larger homes sold in 2009 the median price still dropped $161,500 in 2009. Adjusting for this, the real median price drop is actually $252,850 or 26%.

Today, on average it will take almost three times as long to sell a home in Belmont; when you do sell you are likely to receive under you asking price. In fact statistically you no longer have any chance of getting over your asking price and the odds of getting less than your asking price has increased by 50%. Sellers now receive on average only 96% of what they ask for their home compared to over 103% in 2007. In real dollars that translates into a swing of $52,000.

In the end, this much anticipated market correction will produce a more stable real estate market. Affordability is increasing and eventually sales will increase as buyers feel more optimistic about the future-including job security and housing stability.

Considering the drop in value we are experiencing, for sellers who are debating a moving out of the area, sooner rather than later will probably produce a better result. In all likelihood it will be many years before inflation drives price points back to levels seen in 2007.

A down market is typically an attractive time for sellers who are thinking of a move up. The logic behind this is a more expensive home is less in real dollars-and also saves you thousands of dollars in property taxes over the life of your ownership. Our current market also includes attractive Interest rates that are at historic lows-though Jumbo loans are not enjoying the full benefit of the government's intervention.

Buyers who have stable jobs and are planning to live in their first home for five years or more are benefitting the most from the current conditions. Prices are at a low not seen in years, interest rates are at historic lows, the government is paying them $8,000 to buy a home this year, multiple offers are for the most part non-existent and the high inventory levels means there are a lot of homes to choose from.

In every market, there are opportunities. If you would like advice on how to make the most of our current economic climate give us a call at (650) 508-1441.

*Data retreived from the MLS

The information contained in this post is educational and intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute legal or tax advice, nor does it substitute for legal or tax advice.

The news is full of housing reform stores but the shelf life for reform legislation seems shorter than that of freshly baked bread—what made the news just yesterday is often obsolete by today.

We expect 2009 to be a turbulent time in real estate. Knowing how to weather the storm is paramount to the survival of homeownership.

Key Elements

President Obama signed a $787 billion stimulus bill which includes many features to protect homeownership.

These are a few of the incentives targeted to help 4-5 million responsible homeowners stay in their homes:

\\· Provide access to low cost refinancing where borrowers who have less than the required 80% loan-to-value could refinance to lower their monthly payment.

· Seventy-five billion will be spent on homeowner stability initiatives to help struggling homeowners who, because of the recession, are hard pressed to make their mortgage payments and cannot afford to sell or refinance their home due to a drop in value.

· No aide to speculators. The initiative has no provision for assisting investors or speculators.

· Provide support for homeowners who are at imminent risk of default before they miss a payment.

· Provide loan modifications to bring monthly payments to sustainable levels.

· ”Pay For Success”—Initiative for loan servicers to receive $1,000 per month each month a borrow stays current on their loan.

· “Help Borrowers Stay Current”—Provides a $1,000 per month reduction in a home owners’ principle loan balance for five years if the borrower keeps their payments current.

· “Reaching Borrowers Early”—An incentive of $500 to loan servicers and $1,500 to mortgage holders if they modify at-risk loans before the borrow falls behind.

· “Home Price Decline Reserve Payments”—Holders of mortgages modified under the program would be eligible for an additional insurance payment (from a newly formed entity under the Treasury Department) on each modified loan to offset declines in the home price index.

There are quite a few more initiatives to help homeowners. Though many do not apply to the majority of the loans on the Peninsula since they are not held by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac.

Lenders Are Worried.

Recently, many lenders have been modifying loans without incentives just to keep their head above water. However in contrast to the President's incentive plans, many banks require the homeowner to be months behind in payments before any relief is possible.

►If your mortgage is scheduled for an interest rate increase which you feel you may not be able to afford, we encourage you to contact your mortgage holder immediately and see if they will modify your  existing loan. It’s in everybody's best interest if homeowners can continue to make their monthly payments, even if it takes a loan modification to make it happen.

This first month of the year is in the books as we close out the sales for January 2009 in Belmont.

With 40 homes on the market, inventory is showing signs of creeping up. Looking back on past January inventory levels, they usually hover in the low 20 range. Higher inventory levels typically means sellers will get less than their asking price as the supply and demand is in imbalance.

It's always interesting for us to look and see why inventory is up. There can be several factors but they almost all have a common thread and that's the market is slowing down.

Most buyers can easily get a loan, despite whatever impression from the media you might have. Sure you need to have a better credit score than last year, and you actually have to put some money down now, but lenders are happy to make good loans and they're doing so at a frenetic pace.

But if buyers are afraid that the market is tanking, or that they may be about of a job soon, they'll sit on the sidelines and the inventory will grow.

Seller's who think they had better get out now, or sadly ones who have perhaps already lost their job, need an exit strategy too-and they can't wait for the market values to return.

Together these factors cause inventory levels to grow and that has an inverse relationship on values.

Here are Belmont home sales for the month of January, 2009. The median price has dropped below $900,000 for the last two months in a row; and though we occasionally dip down under $ 900K due to a shift in the size of homes selling, one has to go back to 2004 to see the median price stay this low.

 

 

 

Before we wrote this year’s forecast, we went back and re-read our assessment of where the market might be headed in 2008.

 

Of course very few people could have predicted that the dire real estate woes would drag the entire economy to the brink of collapse and we were no better than most.

 

However, for your enjoyment we’ve clipped a segment out of our 2008 market forecast made on January 4^th 2008—and highlighted some of our more interesting comments:

 

“This is precisely why the Peninsula should fare better than other areas [in 2008]”.

 “However, it’s entirely possible we are on a precipice which could collapse at any time. What is [currently] impacting the Peninsula is the rising cost of energy—especially gasoline.”

“What could have an incalculable impact would be a prolonged recession and loss of local jobs; either of these would undoubtedly bring a decrease in home values to the Peninsula”.

In 2008, Investors eventually began to snap up undervalued properties in the central valley and a few of the nine bay area counties which were hard hit by foreclosures. This had the desired effect of liquidating the tidal wave of inventory but the undesirable effect of sinking the reported median price by skewing the sales mix to smaller homes (since smaller homes and distressed properties sell for less). The media meanwhile continued its relentless reporting of the falling median home price without appreciable application of responsible journalism. Bombarded by the media’s lack of analysis, invariably many buyers were frightened by the reports of falling home values and quite reasonably and expectedly took a “wait and see” attitude. That’s not to say the media’s information was wrong, but they do choose what to report and what to leave out and in many cases they reported numbers without the necessary perspective leading many to believe the housing situation to be far worse than it was in some areas, and far better than it was in others.

Although clearly there were several other factors which inhibited the ability of people to purchase homes—not the least of which was tighter lending standards and higher interest rates—our intrinsic evidence suggests that most credit worthy buyers on the Peninsula withheld from purchasing a home based on the fear of values spiraling down, not because they wanted to wait and “time the absolute market bottom” or couldn't get a loan.

 

We’ve got a lot to cover at the beginning of a new year as we go back and examine all of 2008 as well as the month of December.

This is our month-end report of home sales in Belmont for the month of December 2008. Note that while the median price dropped significantly from November, so did the size home which sold in December. The difference in size of homes in the two months was 190 square feet. At the price per square foot of $514 that could account for $97,660 of the difference in median home price—meaning that home prices were actually higher in December if you factor in for the size of home which sold.

Sales were up too. There were eight sales in November and eleven in December. That’s an anomaly as typically sales in November are greater than December. We’ll chalk that one up to the dire economic news in October (October sales are November’s closings).

Click on the chart for a readable picture.