Critical News and Counter-Spin for October 2009 - 10/31/09 03:59 AM
Critical News and Counter-Spin for October 2009
News: 115 Bank Failures in 2009 And Counting... [news from MarketWatch.com]
Today was almost a double digit bank failure day and some are predicting triple digit day(s) before it is all over.  Today's 9 bank closings bring our 2009 total to 115 bank failures.
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is expected to lose approximately $2.5 billion as of the end of September.  With two more months left this year, it is reasonable to expect that cost to be $3 billion by the end of the year.
 Counter Spin: 3.5% GDP Is Not … (1 comments)

MAKE LOVE NOT HOUSES! - 10/28/09 10:24 PM
All else being equal, population growth will pull us out of the housing despair.  And having so few housing permits, will only accelerate that.  Now for the bad news... we overbuilt during the bubble years.
According to my calculations based on government figures of one net person growth every 11 seconds (about 1% annually against a population of 3.07m) and an average of 2.59 people per household, we need 1,106,915 more homes this year.  That 11-seconds may have been rounded because another source reports a need for 1.34m homes.  For now, let's use the lower, more conservative number.  Working back to 2000, we get … (2 comments)

Foreclosures spread from bubble markets - RealtyTrac metro-level report suggests shift in epicenter - 10/28/09 11:00 AM
If you don't follow Inman news, I recommend it.  Another good article about how the ripples of foreclosures are spreading out was just posted at: http://www.inman.com/news/2009/10/28/foreclosures-spread-bubble-markets
An analysis of foreclosure-related filings at the metro level by data aggregator RealtyTrac shows new hot spots emerging in cities not generally viewed as bubble markets, including Provo, Utah; Rockford, Ill.; and Lansing, Mich.
All but one of the 20 metro markets tracked by RealtyTrac as having the highest rate of foreclosure-related filings during the third quarter were located in four states where speculation helped drive up prices during the boom: California, Florida, Nevada and … (1 comments)

US: Shiller warns prices could be in "bubble territory" (re-blog w/ analysis) - 10/28/09 10:30 AM
In an article at http://www.globaledge.co.uk/news/us-shiller-warns-prices-could-be-bubbl-36169
Robert Shiller, the man who predicted the dot com bubble in his best-selling book Irrational Exuberance has warned that house prices in some areas of the US could be approaching bubble territory.
... and of course there is more ...
I think there is a certain truth to increasing prices, but Schiller does not seem to acknowledge that this little "bubble" is due to three things...
1. The homebuyer credit.  Right now, we have people who have accelerated their purchase decision because of an $8,000 tax credit.  This necessarily puts more demand.  Unless some form of … (0 comments)

Feared flood of foreclosures in California may be averted - 10/22/09 09:10 PM
From the LA Times - http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-foreclosures21-2009oct21,0,5605171.story
Signs are emerging that a much-feared escalation of California home foreclosures may not happen, as banks respond to government pressure and scale back their repossessions of troubled properties.
Statewide, the number of homes taken back by lenders dropped sharply in the three months ended Sept. 30, falling 37% over the same period a year earlier, when foreclosures were at an all-time high.
...
This is a well written and detailed article worth the read if you have a specific interest in California Real Estate
… (6 comments)

Broader homebuyers' credit considered: higher income, no first-timer rule - 10/22/09 08:51 PM
From MercuryNews.com - http://www.mercurynews.com/realestatenews/ci_13568327
WASHINGTON — Lawmakers are trying to extend and expand an $8,000 federal tax credit for first-time homebuyers, a stimulus-package tax break that many regard as a significant prop for the still-tottering economy.
... adding to its cost, estimated by congressional analysts at $16.7 billion
... only about 383,000 would be additional sales motivated by the credit
... the real cost of the credit would thus be more than $40,000, rather than $8,000, per buyer.
BUT
... this would also create more than 347,000 jobs, generate $16.1 billion in wages and salaries and $12.1 billion in business income
SO... … (4 comments)

Del Mar Real Estate and Homes for Sale - Months of Inventory - 10/21/09 12:52 AM
What is new with Del Mar real estate and homes for sale. The inventory level tells the story. The following chart breaks down the inventory into price range categories by single family attached and single family detached homes. The information is current as of October 20, 2009.

Price ranges with no sales but active listings assume are approximated based on nearby price ranges. The low price points show reasonable market strength, up to about $1.5m for a detached home. Overall, there are 12 months of inventory.
Other recent San Diego Real Estate Market Reports:Will SELL Your Home in 6 years … (0 comments)

Carmel Valley Real estate and Torrey Hills real estate - 92130 zipcode - Inventory Levels - 10/20/09 04:46 PM
What is new with Carmel Valley Real estate and Torrey Hills real estate - 92130 zipcode. The inventory level tells the story. The following chart breaks down the inventory into price range categories by single family attached and single family detached homes. The information is current as of October 20, 2009.

Your budget is going to be a clear indicator whether you need to look at a condo or townhome or if you should be looking for a detached home.
Other recent San Diego Real Estate Market Reports:Will SELL Your Home in 6 years + 4 months, or less - … (0 comments)

Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate and Homes for Sale - 10/20/09 03:17 PM
With the end of the summer buying season for Rancho Santa Fe real estate and homes for sale, it is prudent to keep a close watch on the inventory level as it directly affects the the Rancho Santa Fe home prices and especially the time on market. The following chart breaks down the inventory into price range categories. The information is current as of October 19, 2009.

P.S. Unless you want to have your home on the market for 9 years, I suggest you avoid the $4.2m price range.
Other recent San Diego Real Estate Market Reports:Will SELL Your Home … (2 comments)

US administration bows to pressure to help stem foreclosure surge - 10/20/09 03:02 PM
Post originally at http://www.propertywire.com/news/north-america/foreclosure-worries-in-us-200910143584.html
New financial incentives for distressed property owners and for real estate lenders in the US are to be announced next week.
The US administration is bowing to calls from the industry to do something to stem the ever increasing rates of foreclosures which many experts fear will de-rail the property recovery.
The latest prediction is that property foreclosures could reach two million next year and rise to a total of 7.2 million by 2014.
... and more
[There is an substantial increase in the higher end homes falling to foreclosure.]
… (1 comments)

La Jolla Real Estate and Homes for Sale - 10/19/09 09:50 PM
With the end of the summer buying season for La Jolla homes for sale, it is prudent to keep a close watch on the inventory level as it directly affects the the La Jolla home prices and especially the time on market. The following chart breaks down the inventory into price range categories. The information is current as of October 19, 2009.

P.S. Unless you want to have your home on the market for 7 years, I suggest you avoid the $3.3m price range.
Other recent San Diego Real Estate Market Reports:Will SELL Your Home in 6 years + 4 months, … (0 comments)

Real Estate Speculation... - 10/19/09 09:22 PM
People often knock the "speculators" who are "responsible" for this housing mess that we are in.  It just isn't so... or perhaps it would be more realistic to say each and every one of us is a speculator... whether you buy real estate or not... so take that log out of your own eye first.
From the American Heritage Dictionary, first definition
a.     Contemplation or consideration of a subject; meditation.b.     A conclusion, opinion, or theory reached by conjecture.c.     Reasoning based on inconclusive evidence; conjecture or supposition.
Dictionary.com, "speculation," in The American Heritage® Dictionary of the English Language, Fourth Edition. Source location: Houghton … (0 comments)

Federal Reserve Board Delinquency Rates Soar Exponentially - 10/16/09 07:21 PM
In the attached image, we can see how mortgage delnquencies have shot up exponentially from 2006 and it looks like consumer credit delinquencies are following.

Not that it is any surprise, but we can clearly see that our situation is far worse than our last crash about 1990.  The data shown is through Q2 2009 (seasonally adjusted), directly from the Federal Reserve Board's web pages.  However, given the increase in unemployment, I can only imagine that the delinquency rate is growing.  (I'll post Q3 as soon as I see it come out.)  In fact, going back to 1990-1991, we can see that … (3 comments)

No Shadow Inventory of Bank Owned Homes - 10/15/09 12:13 PM
I just received an update from ForeclosureRadar, which focuses on California Real Estate Foreclosures titled
NO SHADOW INVENTORY OF BANK OWNED HOMESForeclosure Investors Still Finding Discounts at Trustee Sale
Discovery Bay, CA, October 13, 2009- ForeclosureRadar (www.foreclosureradar.com), the only website that tracks every California foreclosure and provides daily auction updates, issued its monthly California Foreclosure Report for September 2009. This month's report features not only a new look, but an important new statistic - Bank Owned (REO) Inventory. By looking at the number of foreclosures the banks have taken back and subtracting those that have since resold, we are able to … (4 comments)

Will SELL Your Home in 6 years + 4 months, or less - GUARANTEED!!! - 10/12/09 01:03 AM
I always love to hear the advertisements with a guarantee on the number of days it will take to sell your home - especially when you discover the small print requires massive discounting.  I decided it was time to take a look at just the higher end of our market - San Diego Homes for Sale at $1,000,000 and above.

San Diego is home to communities of Coronado, Point Loma, La Jolla, Del Mar, Solana Beach, Encinitas, Carlsbad, Rancho Santa Fe, with the majority of the million-plus dollar properties being La Jolla homes for sale and Rancho Santa Fe homes for … (4 comments)

Property flipping guidelines extended by FHA until May 2010! What does this mean? - 10/10/09 05:03 AM
I thought this was a useful post to reblog to my people, especially as 50%+ of our market is resales and more than one client has exactly this consideration.
Via Colleen Craig (Southern California Mortgage Professional):
Property Flipping guidelines extended by FHA , until May 2010!  What does this mean and who does this affect?
What is property flipping?  
No .......it's not flipping your home with another couple as seen in trading spaces on  TLC!
                                                        
FHA GUIDELINES STATE THE FOLLOWING:  
Property flipping is a practice whereby a recently acquired property is resold, often for a considerable profit.
Most property flipping occurs within days or … (3 comments)

San Diego Homes for Sale - Months of Inventory - October 2, 2009 - 10/05/09 08:09 PM
With the end of the summer buying season for San Diego homes for sale, it is prudent to keep a close watch on the inventory level as it directly affects the the San Diego home prices.  The following chart breaks down the inventory into price range categorys.  The information is current as of October 2, 2009.

In terms of change, single family attached homes have less inventory, across the board, up to $900,000.  San Diego single family detached homes for sale had less inventory across most price ranges, with only a slight increase (less than 2/10th of a month) between $350,000 … (2 comments)

San Diego Homes for Sale - Median Home Price drops 7.24% in last 12 months - 10/05/09 05:05 PM
As the following chart shows in regards to San Diego homes for sale, the median home price has dropped 7.24% from September 2008 to September 2009.  Please note, the chart specifically targets 3-bedroom, 2-bath homes as this configuration provides the most stable method of measurement.

It is always useful to compare the price per sq ft to see if the buying pattern is affected by the size of home.  In the next chart the San Diego home sales are plotted both by price and price per sq ft.  Apparently the home sizes are shrinking slightly as the decline in the price … (2 comments)

Recession is over; Depression has just begun - 10/05/09 04:25 PM
In an article on Seeking Alpha, Edward Harrison writes, "Recession Is Over, Drepression Has Just Begun"
It is a strong article well worth the read.  It is a long article and I would do it a disservice to post any excerpts here.  I hope you will check it out.  And if anyone knows a better way to re-blog outside material, please let me know. 
… (5 comments)

The Effect Of Unemployment Upon Housing For 2010 - 10/03/09 11:20 PM
John has provided us with another well thought out post and the comments are great as well.
Via John Mulkey, Housing Guru (TheHousingGuru.com):
For the eighth consecutive month, year over year job losses have increased in all 372 U.S. metropolitan areas, and many are concerned about the effect of unemployment upon housing for 2010. How do job losses relate to the recovery and, more importantly, to the coming year? As a lagging indicator, employment is said to follow the economy, so it’s logical that we not expect joblessness to decline until the economy is improving. However, while employment may follow economic trends, it … (1 comments)

San Diego Home Sales Continue Normal Pace for September 2009 - 10/03/09 11:17 PM
The stats are in for September.  It would seem that for detached homes the sales for last month are only slightly below the median.  It is reassuring that we have bounced back from the premature August dip.  I have to wonder what we might have seen if San Diego foreclosures had not been so stymied by the moratorium.

The story is slightly better for single family atached homes.

As ONE indicator of market health, things would seem to be stable.  However, we will have to wait to discover if the first time homebuyer credit is extended and whether or not … (0 comments)

Strategic defaults are morally wrong - 10/03/09 10:04 PM
Is it just me, or is there something inherently morally wrong with this: Strategic defaults gain among homeowners underwater with home value
"So-called strategic defaults, in which homeowners stop paying their mortgages while remaining current on other debts, rose 128 percent to 588,000 last year, according to Experian, a credit-checking company, and Oliver Wyman, a New York consulting firm. Two-thirds of those who walked away defaulted on their primary residences."
 
… (4 comments)

 
Bob Rainmaker_large

San Diego Real Estate & Mortgage Loans | Robert T. Boyer, Ph.D. | VA Home Loan

La Jolla, CA

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The San Diego Real Estate Housing Market tends to lead the nation's real estate activities. This blog looks at current activity and trend data, including sales rates, months of inventory, median home price, unemployment, inflation, etc., with an intent to provide timely predictions for our market. Because such a large part of the current market is make up of San Diego Foreclosures and REOs we will also look deeply at how they affect the current environment. Additionally, specific market segments are monitored, such as La Jolla Real Estate, Del Mar Real Estate, Rancho Santa Fe Real Estate, and Carmel Valley Real Estate


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