I read statistics every day about how home sales are up or home sales are down or predictions that home sales will recover or predictions that homes sales won't recover. I'm in the business of real estate and I can't figure out what all these numbers mean. However, I did see some statistics that caught my eye and actually did make sense to me.

Everyday so far in 2011:

13,780 homes sell in the United States

72 homes sell in Orange County, Ca

500 homes sell every week in Orange County, Ca

2000 homes sell every month in Orange County, Ca

I speak with buyer's and sellers nearly everyday who are on the fence about buying or selling a home. They're afraid to make a move because of the economy or the thinking that prices will drop or a myriad of other reasons. We, buyers and sellers, forget that homes or listed and sold every single day. The reasons can be many; shelter, investment, upsizing, downsizing, schools, neighborhoods, and on a daily basis these decisions are made across the country. So if you are having trouble making a decision you can take solace in the fact that this decision is made by a large number of people every single day.

Courtesy of NAR 09/2011

1 Minute Housing Report

How do Americans view owning a Home?

Last week, Fannie Mae released the National Housing Survey. Here are the survey's more interesting findings. 

• 96% of all homeowners said homeownership has been a positive experience.
• 84% of Americans still believe that owning a home makes more sense than renting. Even 68% of renters believe owning makes more sense.
• 64% consider buying a home as a safe investment. Buying a home was considered safer than buying stocks by over three times the number of people (64% vs 17%).
• 2 in 3 Americans believe that lifestyle benefits of homeownership (65%) are superior to the financial benefits (32%).

Homeownership has always been an important part of the American Dream. Not only are there financial benefits to owning a home but the benefits of providing a secure place for your family and children may be the most important reason to consider homeownership.

Is now a better time to buy a home or to sell a home? The general consensus is that the housing market has hit a long-awaited neutral spot, meaning that prices have somewhat stabilized but could still go down a little or up a little.

It's a good time to sell! If you believe that the banks are holding on to a shadow inventory of homes that will be released on the market causing a downward pressure on prices then it's better to sell now before prices drop.

It's a good time to buy! Home prices have come down drastically from the highs and mortgage rates are the best we've seen in generations. The odds are that rates will be going up so even if home price were to decrease your monthly payment may increase.

It's always a good time to buy - and to sell. Every time a house rises in value, there's a person who makes money and a person who says "Darn!" And every time a house loses value, there's a person who says "Darn!" and a person who says, "I got a steal!"

Bottom line ~ it's a great time to sell and/or buy!

1 Minute Housing Report from Brian Jones 

Although home prices have fallen, interest rates are on the rise and that can have a huge impact on your cost. The monthly mortgage payment you can negotiate today may be the lowest it will ever be in your lifetime.

John Paulson, a multibillionaire hedge fund operator and the investment genius who made a killing betting against housing a few years ago, is now bullish on residential real estate market. He recently said:

"If you don't own a home, buy one. If you own one home, buy another one. If you own two homes, buy a third. And, lend your relatives the money to buy a home."

Stan Humphries, chief economist of Zillow, explains that Paulson is talking about COST NOT PRICE.

Paulson is not just betting on house prices, but also on the ability to lock in low financing now with the expectation that it will be easier to pay it back in the future because of inflation.

I was fortunate to attend UCI at a time when the Fine Arts department was enjoying a resurgence of attention to the arts. Every quarter we would have visiting artists come in and teach classes; there was Billie Al Bengston, Joe Goode, Ed Moses and other highly accomplished artists who would critique your work and tell stories but what we as students found most interesting was their insight into the fine art world.

The reason this comes to mind is the excellent show at the Laguna Art Museum featuring the works of John Paul Jones who died in 1999. John Paul Jones, a Laguna Beach resident, taught at UCI from 1969 to 1990 and I was lucky to be one of his students. He founded the printmaking department at UCLA in 1953 and was brought to UCI by Tony Delap to start the print department. He was my professor for many print classes as well as independent study.

He was an introspective, quiet man who encouraged every student to find his or her own voice. John Paul had a romantic sensibility of what art does and what the teaching of art is all about. He was never patronizing but engaged students with dialogue and ideas at whatever their level.

The show is a wonderful reminder of an artist who wasn't into following flashy trends but followed his own voice and vision.

Laguna Beach is home to many diverse and interesting people and over the years as I moved from an art student to being a Realtor I appreciate more and more this little city and our link to the arts.

A pink toilet seat, pro football and 41 Laguna Beach homes - what's the connection? 

My wife and I take the dogs for a walk every evening and last fall we kept seeing a pink toilet seat move from house to house in the neighborhood. Finally, we asked the question, "So what's with the pink toilet seat? Is this some form of punishment and how do we avoid getting this pink badge of honor?"

It turns out that it is indeed a punishment for losing the weekly pro football fantasy pool. Based on some obscure formula - something to do with passing yards, rushing yards, well kept yards, unkept yards and figures only a statistician would love. (I'm guessing alcohol played a part in this somewhere), host Steve Collings calculates the winner and loser each week and emails a spreadsheet to all participants.

Sometime during the evening the pink toilet seat will magically appear on the loser's fence, porch or garage for all to admire.

This year we were invited to join the fantasy pool and so far we have avoided the dubious distinction of losing. I must admit that we do have a twisted desire to wear the crown of the pink toilet seat for maybe just one week.

This Week's Talking Point from ZipRealty Agent Brian Jones  

What's Ahead for Home Loans in 2010?

This year could bring significant changes from 2009 for those seeking home loans. Over the last year, home prices fell to 2003 and earlier levels in many parts of the country. In addition, home loan rates declined to the lowest levels on record and this combination led to the highest home affordability levels ever recorded. Here's a recap of what happened in 2009 and what you need to know for the year ahead.

Would You Like a Sweetener with that Rate?

Interest rates throughout 2009 were artificially low. That's because in late 2008, the Federal Reserve put into place a program for purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities with the intention of lowering mortgage rates. They were successful with reported rates by Freddie Mac falling below 5.00% several times in 2009.

Without this program mortgage rates would have been at least 1.00% higher, and potentially even higher than that. Did you know that a change of 1% in a home loan rate impacts the amount someone can borrow by roughly 10%? For example, if rates are in the low 5.00% range today and then shoot up to the low 6.00% range, $250,000 home buyers may become $225,000 home buyers. 

Look for rates to return to 2008 and previous levels as the Fed ends the program on March 31, 2010. While rates will not immediately increase to 6.00% or higher, know that without additional intervention, rising rates are inevitable. Expect that under worst case scenarios, rates could dance around the 7.00% range.

Show Me Your Docs

Contrary to what you may see or hear in the media, money is widely available for people who want to finance their homes. There is one caveat, though. People need to be able to demonstrate that they qualify for the loan amount they are pursuing and that they have been willing to repay debt they have accepted in the past.

To obtain financing today, a borrower needs to supply the lender with all documentation pertaining to their income, liquid assets and potentially items related to their credit reporting. The best preparation path to follow is to gather most recent pay stubs for 30 days of earnings, two years W-2s with complete tax returns and three months statements, all pages, for any liquid assets used for qualifying.

The free-wheeling days of borrowing whatever people thought they could repay are gone. While some exceptions may be granted for strong compensating factors, total debt to income level will be capped at 45%.

Have We Hit a Bottom in Housing?

If you simply look at the data that is reported, one could surmise that the bottom in U.S. home prices was hit in 2009. One nationally respected index for home price reporting, the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, indicates that home prices turned for the better around mid-year in 2009.

While all markets are different and some may continue to show signs of weakness, most communities have demonstrated strength and should continue to do so. However, some potential headwinds do exist for the second and third quarter of 2010, following the expressed expiration dates of several stimulus programs: The Mortgage Backed Securities purchase program and home buyer tax credits, both of which are directed at the housing and the mortgage markets.

Foreclosures and short sales will also continue to influence many of the hardest hit markets as unemployment and resetting adjustable rate mortgages weigh on distressed homeowners.

Dates to Remember

Two dates lie on the horizon that will impact interest rates and potentially home prices. The first program scheduled to end is the Federal Reserve's program for purchasing Mortgage Backed Securities. Announced in November of 2008, the Fed began purchasing $1.25 trillion in mortgage bonds in 2009 which will culminate at the end of March. As the intention and result of this program was to lower rates, mortgage rates will likely begin to rise after the program concludes.

In addition, April 30, 2010 is the last day to enter into a home purchase contract and still potentially qualify for a federal income tax credit of up to $8,000 for first-time home buyers and up to $6,500 for repeat home buyers. The credit can be claimed only on contracts that close by June 30, 2010.

Act Now...Not Later

While no one knows for certain what the future holds, one thing does appear clear. Home loan rates and home prices both will be higher in the future. If you or anyone you know is looking to purchase a home, waiting could be costly!

I'm available to show property or answer any real estate questions you may have. Please give me a call at 949-422-1636 or email me at brjones@ziprealty.com

Laguna Beach Homes - Sales 2008

Sales Soar in September

Compared to the year before, sales of single-family, re-sale homes in Orange County rose 83.9% in September. This is the third month in a row home sales have been up year-over-year. The good news for buyers - the median price for single-family, re-sale homes in Orange County fell 4% from August. Year-over-year, the median price was off 26.7%.

Just as several years ago at the height of the market, the large number of million dollar plus sales skewed statistical prices upward. The current large numbers of bank-owned properties working their way through the market are skewing statistical prices downward.

As of November 1, 2008;

There are currently 324 Homes for Sale in Laguna Beach, ranging in price from $400,000 to $23,000,000 

•       Average Price: $3,144,325

•       Average Days on Market: 153 

There are currently 16 Laguna Beach Homes in escrow, accepting Back-Up offers. 

•       Average Price: $1,448,124

•       Average Days on Market: 146 

And 13 Laguna Beach Homes are Pending in escrow:

•       Average Price: $1,785,592

•       Average Days on Market: 114 

151 Homes in Laguna Beach have closed escrow in 2008

•       Average Price: $2,240,072

•       Average Days on Market: 111

•       Average Price per Square Foot: $915.75 

Laguna Beach homes for sale

For more information on a particular city or neighborhood please contact me.

Brian Jones, Realtor

ZipRealty, Inc.

cell: 949-422-1636 or 800-225-5947 x5220

email: brjones@ziprealty.com

My last post was about the Dia de los Muertos Festival in San Juan Capistrano that my wife and I attended. It was held at the public library and featured face painting, dancing and colorful altars dedicated to friends and family.

As we wandered through the library we found a small outdoor patio. Normally used as a location for a quiet read today the patio had been set aside for people to pay tribute to someone departed. Small pots of marigolds  were set neatly on the concrete benches and under the pots were placed notes. Marigolds are thought to attract the dead with their pungent scent.

As my wife wrote a note to her mother and sister, a particular note caught my eye. It read simply, "Dad, I hope there are BIG FISH  where you are. I love you."

I pictured a father and son or daughter spending time together after a busy week. Dad relaxing and enjoying the moment when your biggest worry is catching a fish.
I thought the note showed incredible strength from a child not thinking of himself but hoping that his father is doing ok. 

The Day of the Dead festival struck me as a very positive and joyful holiday, a time to celebrate and honor the lives of the deceased.



Brian Jones, Realtor
ZipRealty
Contact me at 949-422-1636 or800-225-5974 x5220
email: brjones@ziprealty.com

The San Juan Capistrano Library presented a Day of the Dead festival last weekend that my wife and I attended. Dia de los Muertos is a week-long holiday when the souls of the dead return to be with their families for one night, Nov. 1 and the early morning of Nov 2.

The Library featured altars, paintings and best of all ...dancing. But first the altars - the celebration is not sad and dreary but cheerful. People are happy to think that the person they loved will return to be with them and enjoy the pleasures of life with their family. The altar, or Ofrenda, is loaded with the things he or she loved in life because the spirits of the dead return to partake of them (tobasco sauce, adult beverages, etc.).

The altar includes four main elements of nature - earth, wind, water and fire.

Earth is represented by crop: the Mexicans believe the souls are fed by the aroma of food.

Wind is represented by a moving object: tissue paper is commonly used to represent wind.

Water is placed in a container for the soul to quench its thirst after the long journey to the altar.

Fire is represented by a wax candle. Each lit candle represents a soul and an extra one is placed for the forgotten soul.

The kids (and adults) enjoyed face painting, decorating sugar skulls and dancing. The stage was filled with colorful costumes and lively whirling dancers.

Death in the Mexican culture doesn't have the same meaning as it does among North Americans and Europeans. Mexicans joke about death and poke fun at it in their art, literature and music. You'll often see toys and candies in the shapes of skulls and skeletons. Death is thought of as in inevitable part of the natural cycle and like life, death is filled with ironies, not the least of which is that the dead are never really dead but return for this one night of the year.

Brian Jones, Realtor

ZipRealty

Contact me at 949-422-1636 or

brjones@ziprealty.com