I'm continually AMAZED when I hear people predicting that the housing market is bottoming out and there should be a turn around in the next 6-12 months!!!!!!!
The market decline has slowed down (prices are still down, but sales are up) because some people are taking advantage of the extremely low rates for a mortgage - but it is temporary! Who cares if rates are low if next month they've lost equity?
I'm in the business of buying distressed properties and at the beginning of this decade I had to attract sellers to me. I had to pay for advertising. Lately, I've been making offers to banks using a friendly Realtor. Fresh bank-owned properties cross my desk almost daily. It's a blooming infestation!
As a result of an influx of distressed sales and the tight lending environment - prices are plummeting. What's scary is there is a back-log of foreclosures on their way to market in 09'. (check out these articles posted on Inman.com: 1. Obstacles delay REO sales 2.Banks to unleash flood of REOs).
Another HUGE point that I don't hear too many people talking about is regarding all the people who are current on their mortgage, but who owe considerably more than their property is worth. Maybe they bought at the peak of the market or maybe they refinanced or took out a home equity loan. What happens when these folks need to move, but can't sell? If prices have dropped 30%, then they have to go up almost 50% to be back. Are you expecting prices to go up 50% any time soon?
What about the fact that lenders were giving adjustable rate loans with five year balloons? IF 2007 was the last year they were pushintg these loans, that means we still have future balloons coming up for YEARS.
How long can the FED keep interest rates low without inflation raging out of control? What happens when rates go up and ARM loans become more unaffordable and even fewer people can get new loans?
Call me Chicken Little, but if you're planning to buy now - buy LOW!!