wahlberg: Prepare yourselves.... - 05/21/12 12:45 AM

 
I'm just finishing up some broken apart reports by zip code for the greater Missoula and Lolo area as well as some city and county-wide stats.  I should have them up this afternoon and tomorrow!  Blog overload soon to come!
… (0 comments)

wahlberg: New Office - 02/14/11 06:01 AM
To our fellow clients, friends, and family; 
One of our favorite quotes on facing challenges comes from John F Kennedy.  When talking about the challenges our country was facing in the early 60's and rising to the occasion in a speech before Rice University he said that, "We choose to go the moon in this decade and to do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard."  Over the last 4 months in the midst of re-franchising and re-branding our office we have had to make some hard decisions and face challenges like never before.  After … (3 comments)

wahlberg: Early 2010 stats for Missoula - 01/06/11 08:19 AM
I'll give you both sides of the argument and leave it up to you the readers to decide!  These numbers aren't official as some records are usually a little delayed in reporting, but they'll give you the general idea.  As always, my source is from the Missoula Organization of REALTORS(R) MLS.
2010 Sales Statistics for Missoula (Residential):
- 830 total sales.  Compare to 913 in 2009, a decrease of 9% in volume.  The peak year was 2006 which had 1443 sales so the 2010 numbers reflect a staggering 42.5% decrease from the peak.  What's interesting though is this summer we saw … (0 comments)

wahlberg: CNN is here to freak us out, and comparing national to Missoula - 11/30/10 04:12 AM
"House prices fall 2% SIGNS OF DOUBLE DIP?!?!?!?!"
http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/30/real_estate/CaseShiller_home_prices/index.htm?hpt=T2
And then the article doesn't even mention about the dreaded double dip.  Sometimes national news media really frustrates me they latch on to a story and suggest future fears and concerns but then never expand upon it at all.  Yet, in their title they say this might be signs of a double dip, and most people who see that article will only read some of the headlines and not the body of the print.  I'll bet that a lot of people now are thinking that the nation is headed to a double … (1 comments)

wahlberg: Report from New Orleans #2 - Politics in the next 2 years - 11/15/10 05:01 AM
A major topic throughout the convention coming off the heels of a big election.  There was a lot of talk in many of the meetings about what the most recent election means for homeowners, tax payers, and political action groups ahead. 
1. As mentioned in the prior post on gridlock, both Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala commented on gridlock being a good thing because it forces compromise rather than extreme laws to be passed.  This should be good for the common Americans, we won't see far-reaching laws or massive slashing of programs, but hopefully something in the middle.
2. The major concern … (0 comments)

wahlberg: Report from New Orleans #1 - The Economy - 11/09/10 08:33 AM
In the elections the other week the economy was huge, it was also the main discussion point in many of the meetings I attended, I heard from NAR's chief economist Lawrence Yun, a cheif editor from Forbes, and pundits Tucker Carlson and Paul Begala. 
The general consensus was that it's a long haul ahead, there's no quick answers and don't look for overnight changes.  Generally speaking here's the big things to look at over the next few years:
1. Expect continued unemployment for 2-3 years at least.  No one was optimistic that unemployment would dramatically improve anytime soon.  While there are … (1 comments)

wahlberg: National Housing Sales up 10% - what about Missoula? - 10/25/10 06:05 AM
http://money.cnn.com/2010/10/25/news/economy/existing_home_sales/index.htm?hpt=T2
Some very good news on the national scene, we're seeing housing units still recovering in a post-tax credit market.  I remember my 1st day in economics class when my professor told me, "People respond to incentives," and so last year's numbers and activity shows that the overall action was inflated due to a great tax-credit for many 1st time home buyers.  There has been a lot of talk about the post-tax credit market, and that it would dip but then slowly recover.  So far, that suggestion (coming from NAR cheif economist Lawrence Yun) is exactly what we're seeing nationally.  A 10% increase from September from … (3 comments)

wahlberg: A good August for the nation, not so much for Missoula - 09/23/10 06:22 AM
So I was reading this CNN/Money article today: http://money.cnn.com/2010/09/23/news/economy/existing_home_sales/index.htm?hpt=T2
It talks about how existing sales rebounded in August, up from a big slide in July. I thought I’d check it compared to Missoula and unfortunately the news isn’t the prettiest. So lets look at the basic news nationally, we’ve got 11.6 months of listed inventory, sales came up 7.6% in August compared to July, and the August median sales price nationally was $178,600.
Now, look at Missoula’s August: 52 sales, median sales price of $195,300, and about a 16.8 month supply of inventory overall. Furthermore there were 82 sales in July … (0 comments)

wahlberg: The latest news from the Missoula Organization of Realtors - 09/07/10 05:16 PM
I just typed up a report for the Montana Association of REALTORS(R) yearly end of business meetings, it's all relevant stuff about what's been going on here and so I thought I'd share it here!  Message as follows:
 
Residential market, urban Missoula area:
 
YTD sales: 595, which is almost exactly on point to where it was last year at this time which was 597 sold homes.  The difference is that the current YTD median sales price for this year is $199,900 while at this same point last year it was $214,000.  This reduction in the median sales price, 6.6% … (0 comments)

wahlberg: (un)special districts - 08/19/10 06:18 AM
Recently the Missoula City Council proposed a new special district tax on certain areas around town to help fund their upcoming budget shortfall.  The story is gaining ground as the protest provision is in effect right now.  Just yesterday Mayor John Engen was on CNBC touting the special districts to help Missoula's budget, and in this http://missoulian.com/news/local/article_b3421fa4-ab4b-11df-a18f-001cc4c03286.html article there's more talk of how the tax-exempt properties in town will not be part of the special districts.
The issue is this - the special districts are not what they seem, they go to the general fund, so even though the name of … (1 comments)

wahlberg: Who will lead? - 08/05/10 04:22 PM
As the REALTOR(R) image continues to slip in many aspects leaders of associations, brokerages, and the industry find themselves facing a critical junction as the new market emerges.  Gone are the days where the phone rang with new prospects almost every day, the lack of need for broker accountability, and endless association funds - instead those who skated by on new business and burned bridges are finding other lines of work, brokers are looking at quality over quantity, and REALTOR(R) associations are having to make tough choices in terms of services and benefits to local agents and the public. 
The market is changing too, … (7 comments)

wahlberg: The End of an Error - 08/02/10 05:47 PM
This is the the second attempt of a blog post, the first was a little narrow-focused and upon writing it I got to thinking about a listing practice in Missoula (and probably a lot of the US) that is now DOA.  The old trick, "Lets price it up and we'll negotiate down when a buyer comes along."  So that said, I'd like to thank you all for reading this eulogy for a dead practice that worked in NINA (no income, no asset) loan-era.
Pricing up to negotiate down had a good run, it was an awesome technique in an age when people could … (2 comments)

wahlberg: Lets Talk Supply - 07/30/10 07:06 PM
A Blog I read quite often is called The Calculated Risk Blog, in this story: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/07/existing-homes-double-digit-months-of.html the story I've linked to talks about expected supply of double digits in the months to come regarding re-sale homes.  CRB expects supply of existing homes to get into double digits and stay there for a while.  Usually when we talk supply 8 months or less is considered a "healthy" market.  Based on this blog I thought I'd see how Missoula stacks up.
Missoula active listed inventory: 941
Sales to date: 522
Using the CRB math for supply: 941/522 * 7 = 12.62 months so a slightly over-stocked market.  That's the total … (3 comments)

wahlberg: Looming housing shortage, and what it means for Missoula, MT - 07/26/10 07:55 AM
Two weeks back in Washington DC for the Realtor mid-year meetings I was pretty surprised to hear both Lawrence Yun and an economist with Moody's talk about an upcoming new construction housing shortage.  Yun talked about on average the US needs to be building about 1.6 million new homes per year, however in the last 3 years new builds are non-existent, and that currently the US is about 2.35 million homes short of meeting that need.  So what does that mean in the future?  A big shortage, and in doing a simple Google search I can see it's not just the … (0 comments)

wahlberg: Market Comparison Research - 07/26/10 07:22 AM
Lets take a look at an array of stats (For Missoula urban area only):
1/1/2010 - 7/26/2010 Sales: 504 houses
1/1/2010 - 7/26/2010 Median: $199,900
1/1/2009 - 7/26/2009 Sales: 464 houses
1/1/2009 - 7/26/2009 Median: $215,000
My analysis: Neither of these numbers are overwhelmingly surprising, the first half of last year was when the tax credits were just taking hold, interest rates were higher and the stock market collapse was still resonating for everybody.  Until March of 2009 I believe the tax credit for 1st time buyers was very different ($7500 and you had to pay it back) so the market was not dominated by … (0 comments)

wahlberg: Tracking pending sales, pre and post tax credit deadline - 05/03/10 10:52 AM
Forgive me on the choppy post, but I thought I'd cut and paste two of my most recent blog posts regarding the market in the Missoula, Montana area.  The 1st post was put online on April 23rd, the 2nd one I put up today.
4/23/2010:
With 1 week to go before the tax credit expires things are frantic to say the least, buyers are making offers left and right, and some houses are getting quite a bit of activity right now!
I thought it would be interesting to see how our market holds up with new buyer activity once this tax … (0 comments)

wahlberg: Thoughts / Summary after hearing economist Chris Thornberg - 10/16/09 08:50 AM
Every October Newwest.net holds a real estate conference regarding real estate and development in the Rockies.  Each year they've had an economist, Chris Thornberg, come and speak.  Chris has been on-target all three years, predicting the burst of the housing bubble, the effects of the stock market collapse, and the rise in foreclosures.  This year he was the keynote speaker, and here's what I took away from it:
The United States is pulling out of the recession, all signs point to that, we're no longer heading downhill.  In fact GDP growth in the 3rd quarter will be positive, the first time … (3 comments)

wahlberg: Thoughts after an over-priced home tour - 06/05/09 06:51 AM
Yesterday there was a 12 home Realtor lunch tour on the south side of Missoula.  All of the houses were larger/newer homes in newer subdivisions, priced between $350,000 - $600,000.  For those of you unfamiliar with our market, that's probably what you'd consider the "top end" right now, there's higher priced stuff, but these are mostly large homes with 4+ bedrooms, newer, big lots as high as 2 acres, etc. 
After completing the tour it was sobering what is going on in our "top end" market, the general disconnect between agents and sellers, and how people still don't realize the changing … (6 comments)

wahlberg: Lets talk stimulus & Montana! - 03/03/09 09:35 AM
Yesterday I took some notes from an economics professor at the UM. He had some info on how this stimulus affects Montana. Here's what I wrote down:
- $626 million for the State of Montana, in his opinion a little low per capita.
- 1/3 of that is for highway funding, he reminded us that many city streets are considered highways, such as Brooks, Russell, and Reserve here in town. He suggested that most likely this stimulus will allow projects such as the Russell St expansion to take place.
- In his opinion a lot of the stimulus money is going … (0 comments)

wahlberg: CNN's state of the economy tracker and Montana - 03/03/09 09:34 AM
http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/2009/map.economy/index.html
Some interesting stuff here:
 - Regarding unemployment, Montana appears to be pretty good, almost 2% below the national average
- Jobs by industry, Montana is one of the many Rocky Mountian states that is showing healthy growth
 - The lowest foreclosure rate in December of 0.009%
… (1 comments)