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Hi everybody! It is with great regret that I post my final blog here on Active Rain. As of this week I am exiting the retail lending business and heading back to my roots in wholesale mortgage banking. I have taken an incredible opportunity to work as an account executive for an FDIC-insured bank headquartered in San Diego. We are a portfolio jumbo lender and I am excited to be getting out there and introducing my clientele in the East San Francisco Bay to our unique and exceptional programs.
Economic News: The majority of the economic reports were concentrated at the end of the week. On Thursday Initial Jobless Claims and the Producer Price Index (PPI) were reported. The jobless numbers were higher than expected at 462,000 and there was a very slight increase in the four week moving average. The PPI figures showed an increase of .40% from last month and up 4% from last year. When the volatile food and energy components are excluded producer prices increased a modest 1.5% over last year. Friday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) revealed that inflation at the consumer level is very soft. The Retail Sales report was good news and came in at the high end of expectations with spending gains across most sectors. In a strange contrast to the retails sales results Consumer Sentiment was lower than forecast. 
Economic News: The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers were released yesterday. The 1.7% growth figure, while still a little weak, came in at the top end of the consensus range. Initial Jobless Claims were reported lower by 16,000 and the four week average trended lower for the fifth straight week. Today's Personal Income & Outlays reported that income was up .50% month over month and up 3.3% year over year. Consumer Spending was reported up .40% month over month and 2.7% year over year. Consumer Sentiment had a nice gain at 68.2 which was at the top end of consensus. Lastly, the ISM Manufacturing Index broke the trend of good news, although coming in at the mid-range of consensus, it showed a slowing in new orders and a climb in inventories.
Economic News: A fairly big dose of economic data will be released this week. Today brought us the Case-Shiller Home Price Index & Consumer Confidence readings. The HPI data was a bit of a mixed bag with the non-seasonally adjusted data showing gains in both the month to month as well as year over year measurements. When seasonally adjusted the data is basically showing a flat line. Consumer Confidence came in under consensus and was at the lowest point since the beginning of the year.
Economic News: Tuesday's Housing Starts figures beat the estimates by a wide margin. This was mostly due to the Multi Family sector starts which rose 32.2% for August. The Single Family component rose as well up 4.3% versus a 6.7% drop in July. Yesterday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement contained the language that "the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months." The FED signaled that the Fed Funds Rate would remain low for an "extended period" and it will review additional measures to "jump start" the economy.
Economic News: This morning's Housing Market Index was reported at 13 for September which is the same level as last month. We will get much more information on housing later this week as Existing Home Sales will be reported on Thursday & New Home Sales on Friday. Also out today was a report by the National Bureau of Economic Research (which per the Wall Street Journal is tasked with "dating changes in the US business cycle) that the recession officially began in December of 2007 and ended in June of 2009. If you subscribe to this 
Economic News: On Wednesday the Industrial Production numbers for August were reported and were in line with consensus. Thursday's Producer Price Index revealed a uptick in inflation but if you exclude to volatile food and energy sectors it was up only .10% from last month. Initial Jobless Claims numbers came in at 450,000 which was lower than anticipated and the four week moving average posted a nice decline. Today's Consumer Price Index release, in line with thePPI, showed that the food and energy sector was leading the way in the inflation arena. If you exclude this the CPI had no gain on a year over year level. Lastly, Consumer Sentiment was the big disappointment for the week. It was reported at 66.6 versus the expected consensus figure of 70.0.
Economic News: Today's Retail Sales Report beat consensus estimates, posted a second month of gains, and supports the opinion that while growth is tepid it is still growth. This data supports the notion that we may avoid a double dip recession.
Economic News: The economic reports this week boosted the Equity Markets at the Expense of the Bond Markets. Wednesday's Beige Book Report did not hold any surprises and reflected the sentiment that the recovery has slowed a bit but economic growth is still expanding. Thursday's Jobless Claims report revealed that Initial Claims came in well below expectations at 451K for the week and improvement was shown in continuing claims as well. Finally, the 30 Year Bond Auction on Thursday did not go well and put additional pressures on interest rates.
Economic News: It is going to be a quiet week for economic data. The stock market has started out lower this week due to questions over the "Stress Tests" in the European Banking Sector. Wednesday will also have the release of the "Beige Book" (released 8 times per year ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC) meeting.
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