The news today is that February sales were below the sales in February of last year.  True.  The percentage of dollar sales for February for the major brokerages in our Conejo Valley was 85% of the dollar sales experienced last year.

Now for the good news.  If you look at the chart for the number of closed escrows, we are ahead of last year.  As a matter of fact, we are well ahead of the past three years. It looks like the low achieved for the early period this year was just short of 30 escrows per week, versus less than 20 for 2008 and 2009 and 25 for 2010.  The market is not crazy, but it is good.  We are seeing growth in the number of escrows closed.

We are not yet seeing growth in the number of active listings.  One significant factor is the relatively low number of REO and Short Sale listings. There has been talk for several years about the amount of inventory the banks are holding on to, and that there is going to be "a flood of foreclosures" on the market.   Hasn't shown up yet! This will be another interesting year, too early yet to forecast if the rebound we are all hoping for is taking place.

 

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TOTAL LISTINGS IN THE CONEJO VALLEY, IN VENTURA COUNTY CA
March 15, 2011

The Conejo Valley California is made up of the communities of Agoura, Oak Park, Westlake Village, Thousand Oaks, and Newbury Park.

The inventory remains stable, while sales are on the upward swing. 

The active inventory in the Conejo Valley, CA is 790 today, very close to what it was at the beginning of the year.  And the inventory is very balanced between different price levels.  This week 4 homes over $1 million closed escrow, a consistent pattern recently.  Unfortunately, none of those four sales were mine!

Of the 790 active listings, 35 were listed as REOs and 97 as short sales. At the beginning of the year those numbers were 60 and 120. Middle of last year we had REOs at 70 and Short Sales at 160. More short sales are actually closing than a few years ago.  If anyone knows what is really going on, please let me know.  Everyone says there are a lot of inventory at the banks, but they still are hesitant to put them onto the market.  We have been hearing for over two years that there is going to be a flood of REO's.  That has yet to happen.
 
We expect the overall inventory to start growing this year, as we get into the selling season, and may be a few weeks away from the upturn.

On the Closed Escrows chart, we are continuing to see strength.  Thirty eight escrows closed last week, 35 the week before.  The 8-week moving average is a line on which each point is computed by taking the average of the previous 8 weeks.  This smoothes out the line and helps us see trends.  At the beginning of 2008 and 2009, this line hit a low of 18 before heading upwards.  In 2010 it only dropped to 25, a figure elevated by the $8,000 tax credits.  For 2011 we are up to 31.  That's basically telling us that we have almost twice as many closing for this time of the year than we did in
2008 and 2009.    This year is starting out very strongly.

Computing the months of inventory figure is done by taking the 790 total and dividing by sales.  We have 4.8 months worth of inventory.  Since the inventory is stable and sales are on the upswing, that inventory measure is declining.  Lower inventory and higher sales traditionally means pressure for prices to increase.
Now if the rest of the world will cooperate, with tsunamis and civil wars and all the other problems that can arise, I think we can look forward to a decent housing market for the year.

 

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WHAT WILL THE NEW YEAR BRING TO THE HOUSING MARKET  
IN 2011 IN VENTURA COUNTY CALIFORNIA?

I have been busy reading every forecast of what our housing market will look like in 2011.

Richard Green, director of the USC Lusk Center for Real Estate, predicts home prices will remain flat in 2011

Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors, predicts home prices will rise 2% in 2011.

Bruce Norris, president of Norris Group in Riverside, expects home prices to fall 5% in 2011.  (note: he is in Riverside)

Christopher Thornberg, founding principal of Beacon Economics, predicts home prices will remain flat in 2011.

Those are the opinions of four full-time, highly respected housing economists.  There are many reasons for optimism, particularly for those in the Conejo and Simi Valleys CA.

We live in one of the most desired areas in Southern California.  Supply and Demand has kept our prices from falling as much as in other areas, and will help our home prices recover compared to other areas. In addition, the percentage of foreclosures and short sales in our area has not been as severe.  About 20% of sales in our area have involved financially troubled properties, versus much higher percentages in other areas.

Rental prices remain high, and investors have been snapping up properties for income, many times with immediate positive cash flow.  The return of investors to the home marketplace is a strong indication of a recovery.

In Ventura County, 63% of residents can afford a home at today’s prices and today’s interest rates.  Rates have risen slightly, but continue to be below 5% for 30-year fixed rate mortgages.

In my opinion, the most important factor remaining for a healthy market involves consumer confidence and unemployment.  People worried about their jobs, or out of jobs, don’t buy homes.  We have seen a dramatic decrease in new applications for unemployment, and full-time hiring is beginning to take place in private industry.  Companies are profitable with large hordes of cash, and increasing sales lead to the hiring of permanent employees.  As we see the unemployment rate decrease, we will see the housing market benefit.

What is your home worth?  For help determining the value of your real estate, call or text Carol Lee at 818-642-9445.

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HAPPY  HOLIDAYS TO ALL!

WISHING ALL MY  FRIENDS
A JOYOUS HOLIDAY AND
PROSPEROUS  2011
FILLED WITH LOVE AND LAUGHTER!

 

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