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Here are some insights on the direction of interest rates in Canada, in the upcoming years.
By The Canadian Press
CIBC: muted growth means Bank of Canada unlikely to raise rates till 2011
TORONTO - The Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates until 2011 because the lingering effects of the global economic meltdown will continue to mute both growth and inflation, according to a report issued Tuesday by CIBC World Markets.
"While the 2009 recession may already be over, the slack it created is both large and likely to persist," said CIBC chief economist Avery Shenfeld.
"Unlike the Bank of Canada, we don't expect growth to average above the non-inflationary potential until 2011," Shenfeld added.
"But even under (Bank of Canada) Governor (Mark) Carney's more optimistic trajectory, inflation will still be feeling the downward pressure of a sizable output gap next year, one as large as we saw in the early 1980s and 1990s downturns."
He predicted both headline and core prices would cross paths in the second quarter of 2010, at a level well under the Bank of Canada's two per cent target.
"As a result, Canada's inflation rate will be no threat to the bank easily fulfilling its pledge to keep interest rates at a slim quarter point through mid-2010," he said. "In fact, market expectations for rate hikes in the first half of 2010 could be a full year too premature."
While the core inflation rate did not decelerate as much as the Bank of Canada predicted earlier this year, there are reasons to expect a further easing in core inflation ahead, Shenfeld said, including "what economists call the income effect."
Shenfeld notes that by stripping out volatile items from the CPI, the Bank of Canada's core measure now excludes most of the items that have been deflating.
With the volatile measures included, headline CPI is negative, largely driven by the dive in gasoline prices from a year ago. Lower gas prices have pulled down costs for intercity transportation fares as well, which the Bank of Canada also excludes from core inflation. Other non-core items such as natural gas, fuel oil and mortgage interest costs have also eased off.
"The deep dive in non-core items has left those Canadians still working with some spending power," Shenfeld said in explaining the income effect.
"While nominal wages have begun to decelerate in a slack labour market, a negative year-on-year inflation rate has meant that in real terms, the buying power of the average wage has escalated."
"So after filling their gas tank and paying their new, lower, mortgage bills, Canadians simply have more money in their pockets when they go shopping for other items, keeping those prices aloft."
Shenfeld notes that economic slack usually takes time to exert its dis-inflationary force and believes the upward pressure on prices will ease in the coming months.
Meanwhile, less benign headline inflation expected next year "implies diminished buying power for other goods, contributing to a cooling in core CPI."
"With a lag, a strong Canadian dollar will also provide a dampening impact on retail prices for imported goods and services."
Meanwhile, unlike the central bank's outlook, the CIBC report does not see the Canadian economy gaining much benefit from a forecasted U.S. recovery.
CIBC's analysis finds that protectionist trade barriers and a tilt in U.S. stimulus spending towards industries that have less-than-average propensities to import from Canada, will dampen the benefits that this country typically sees from economic growth south of the border.
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This spring and summer market has had a shortage of good listings for active buyers. The demand has been high and the supply has been low. All of the classic ingredients of a sellers' market.
The fall market is around the corner, and predictions have already been made.
The experts are predicting that the current market we are experiencing in Toronto will cool off in the upcoming months - prices will stabilize and we will get back to a better inventory supply.
So frustrated buyers, dealing with bidding wars, and lack of choice, will most likely be pleased with the road ahead.
Of course, these are just predictions and the market activity (listing / buying) in the fall, will tell all.
THE WINNERS OF THE 5th ANNUAL PUG AWARDS ANNOUNCED
The fifth annual Pug Awards invited Torontonians to vote online from May 1st to May 31st this year for 24 new residential developments. The eligible buildings must have been completed in 2008, be located in the city of Toronto, have an area greater than 50,000 sq. ft., or be considered noteworthy by the Pug Awards Advisory Board.
"For the fifth consecutive year, the people of Toronto have embraced the Pug Awards as a platform from which to voice their opinions, thereby heightening the awareness of urban planning and architecture in our city says Anna Simone co- founder of the Pug Awards and a principal at interior design firm Cecconi Simone. As developers, architects and designers, we can only benefit from this feedback as a guide to improve future developments."
The big winner was One St. Thomas as the best new building in the residential category. One St. Thomas was designed by New Yorkís Robert A.M. Stern Architects in conjunction with Young + Wright Architects and was developed by St. Thomas Developments in association with the Lee Development Group. The development at 1 St. Thomas Street is a 29 storey stepped, point tower in downtown Toronto.
Honourable mentions went to Quantum 2 at MintoMidtown followed by Kilgour Estates.
The complete voting results for all the buildings nominated are as follows:
Residential Rank Project Name 1 One St. Thomas 2 Quantum 2 ñ North Tower 3 Kilgour Estates 4 Dia 5 West One 6 The Gallery 7 College Park 2 8 Garment Factory Lofts 9 Regency Yorkville 10 The Clairmont 11 High Park Lofts 12 Loggia 1 & 2 13 Verve 14 Meridian Residences 15 Mosaic 16 One Sherway ñ Phase 1 17 9T6 Condominiums 18 Panache Condominiums 19 Kingswood on Bloor 20 C-Condominiums 21 Nuvo 2 at Essex 22 Mansions of Humberwood 2 23 Skyscape 24 Hampton Plaza
The annual Pug Awards (formerly known as the Pugly Awards) were launched in 2004 and celebrate the best in Toronto architecture and planning. Founded by Anna Simone, principal of design firm Cecconi Simone, and Gary Berman, managing director of real estate financier Tricon Capital Group, the awards invite the public to vote on the best, the mediocre and worst of Torontoís newest real estate developments. The goal is to inform the public about design excellence and ultimately contribute to the growth and prosperity of Toronto.
As in June, the Toronto Real Estate Board is reporting another record setting month.
See the below excerpt from this month's Market Watch just released:
In July 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported a record 9,967 sales, up 28 per cent from July 2008. The average price for July transactions was $395,414 - up by six per cent compared to the same month last year.
"Households confident in their positioning within the current economic environment have taken advantage of housing affordability in the GTA," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "The real estate sector has been one of the sectors making a positive contribution to economic growth in the GTA, not to mention Ontario and Canada more broadly."
"The steep drop-off in sales experienced at the beginning of the year has all but dissipated," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "With five months left to go in the year, it is probable that total existing home sales in 2009 will be at or above last year's level."
In June 2009, Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported a record 10,955 sales, up 27 per cent from June 2008. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of sales in June was 100,700.
"The record result in June is testament to the fundamentally sound housing market in the GTA," said TREB President Tom Lebour. "An increasing number of households have been confident in purchasing a home in the region's affordable and diverse resale housing market."
The average price for June transactions was $403,972 - up by two per cent compared to the same month last year.
"The re-emergence of seller's market conditions has exerted upward pressure on home prices," explained Jason Mercer, TREB's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. "Look for sales to remain high relative to listings in the second half of the year. This will keep home prices growing."
Courtesy of the Toronto Real Estate Board - July 6, 2009
I can always tell when a sellers' market is upon us. When a condo has just been put on the market, and that same day I'm lining up in the hallway with my clients, along with other agents and their clients, trying to get in to show the unit. Multiple offers, buyers bidding irrationally, and negotiations are becoming more infrequent. A tough market for buyers, but the sellers are now back in the game. Consumer confidence is back up, and it looks like it's going to be a busy Summer for me. Usually in the Summer, the market tends to cool a little, but it is showing no signs of slowing down, as we go into July. A very good sign of a healthy market.
As stability returns to residential real estate markets across the country, buyers and sellers are breathing a sigh of relief. The carnage south of the border has failed to materialize in Canada and all indicators - economic and otherwise -- point to a housing market on the upswing.
Buyers who moved in the midst of uncertainty, ignoring warnings from doom and gloom forecasters, economists and naysayers, snapped up some of the best real estate deals this market has seen in years. By contrast, those who panicked and chose to sit it out on the sidelines are now facing rising interest rates and-in some markets-limited inventory levels.
With national resale housing market activity returning to pre-recession levels in May, it would seem that we've come through the worst of the financial meltdown, with the real estate correction nearing an end. The number of positive indicators is very encouraging. However, recovery is still underway, and there may still be some bumps along the road. Nevertheless, the buoyancy in the marketplace took economists by surprise. Just over half of all major markets reported an increase in unit sales in May over year-ago levels. Consumer confidence continues to strengthen across the board.
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
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