mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Forecast - July 26, 2010 - 07/26/10 10:48 AM
It’s that time of week again, where we take a quick look back at what happened last week in the mortgage backed securities market and what lies ahead. Last week’s report was omitted due to scheduling conflicts, which happens every now and then, but which will hopefully get ruled out in the near future. Nevertheless, the week was full of false alerts, or at least premature at best, and proves the need to listen to the right people and different perspectives, especially if you don’t understand what is going on.
Looking back over the last week, there was hardly any data … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Forecast - July 12, 2010 - 07/12/10 10:59 AM
Happy Monday morning to all and it is another bright, sunny day here in South Florida. Unfortunately, things are not so bright in the mortgage backed securities market and exactly where MBS prices, and thus mortgage rates, are going to go could get very interesting this week. Remember that last week I ended saying that the charts favored mortgage rates holding steady but things were changing, so we will get into exactly what has changed, if anything, in this week’s report.
Last week saw very little in the way of data, especially market moving data. In fact, data and events were … (1 comments)
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mortgage rates: Mortgage Rate Forecast - July 6, 2010 - 07/06/10 10:34 AM
Good morning and as I stated in yesterday’s radio program, I have delayed this week’s report until today since the markets were closed yesterday and I wanted to give you a better view of what lies ahead. Of course, flying in from Rio de Janeiro yesterday early morning certainly doesn’t keep one motivated from doing anything but sleep when there is no money-making business to be done.
Once again, let’s review the highlights from last week, though I will not dwell as much as I did on the show. Last week we saw that the economy remains in recovery mode, though … (3 comments)
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mortgage rates: Here is a Great Example of the Current Mortgage Backed Securities Market… - 06/04/09 06:07 PM
If you have wondered why mortgage rates have been climbing, falling, and climbing again, here is a great view into the current mortgage backed securities market…
Mortgage backed securities have done three virtual freefalls in the last week and a half, only 8 trading days. Since MBS pricing is what drives mortgage rates, those freefalls resulted in spikes higher in mortgage rates and the subsequent climbs in MBS prices have brought rates down a bit and set up the next “dive”.
While Sheikra, which I think still boasts the largest freefall of a dive coaster (205 feet), only has … (2 comments)
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mortgage rates: Where are Mortgage Rates Headed? - 01/26/09 10:11 AM
This can be a confusing time right now when it comes to determining whether to lock or float your mortgage rate to get the best deal. As I write this, there are many originators talking about both sides of the spectrum as to where mortgage rates are headed. While there is no real "crystal ball", there are many ways to forecast mortgage rates with a high degree of accuracy.
You have likely heard the phrase, a picture is worth a thousand words. Well, when it comes to investing, a picture is worth a thousand (or more) dollars, and that holds true … (0 comments)
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mortgage rates: When Lethargic Rabbits Start Running - 01/06/09 09:40 PM
Lately, my posts have become more about the warnings of government actions and their longer term effects on mortgage rates. Ultimately, I have been talking about increased inflation, the mortgage rate bubble, and mortgage rates breaking into double digits, all of which could very well happen in the not-so-distant future as a result of Paulson and Bernanke's actions, along with continued "economic stimulus" packages.
Many have questioned why I am talking about rampant inflation when the chief concern right now is deflation? I have eluded to the answers in my posts, however I have not been able to come up with … (3 comments)
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mortgage rates: E-Book on the Economy and Mortgage Rates Coming - 06/07/08 07:51 AM
I don't normally throw out advertising in this blog, but I wanted to get this news out...
In the next month or so, I am going to finish a book on how the economy affects mortgages rates. I believe every mortgage professional, and any other professional in the industry who wants to show added value, needs to know how economic data, events, etc. impact mortgage rates and why it is so important to have a constant watch on them, or at least work with a mortgage professional who accesses real-time mortgage bond quotes.
The book will be highlighting how various economic … (5 comments)
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mortgage rates: Are You in Parity with a Loonie, and Should You Care? - 09/25/07 09:09 AM
Many of you are in fact on the same level as a Loonie. Ok, maybe not you, but the money in your wallet is. So, what is a Loonie?
A Loonie is the Canadian Dollar and it has always (or almost always anyway) been worth less than the US Dollar. So, it reached the same value as the US Dollar which means our neighbors to the north are really happy. So happy, in fact, that the Canadian Finance Minister held a press conference Thursday discussing the looming parity.
So why should you care? Simply put, and as the Canadian Finance Minister stated, there is … (7 comments)
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mortgage rates: Don't FIX It if Your ARM is Not Broken - 09/18/07 11:19 AM
Many homeowners have been rushing to refinance their Adjustable Rate Mortgages (ARMs) into a Fixed Rate Mortgage, mostly out of fear.
While it is true that many ARMs adjusting this year will put homeowners into increased mortgage payments, some of which they will not be able to afford. However, I am approached by many ARM holders who want to refinance and they have a while, sometimes a couple of years, before their ARM adjusts. Should they follow the herd?
The answer is a definitive NO! Sounds strange coming from someone who makes money selling mortgages, doesn't it? Well, the reality is that … (5 comments)
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mortgage rates: Did Anything New Come Out of the Hole? Jackson Hole that is. - 08/31/07 12:45 PM
As you more than likely already heard, Big Ben Bernanke was speaking today in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What is amazing is how investors and analysts really wanted to get him to say if the Fed Funds Rate was going to get cut on Sept. 18th. Yeah, like that was going to happen. I will get into the reasoning why later.
Big Ben did say something that is a hint of what will likely happen, and that is that downside risks have risen "appreciably" and that losses attributed to the credit markets have "far exceeded even the most pessimistic projections." Remember that we … (4 comments)
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mortgage rates: OK, Apparently not Everyone is Getting it? - 08/30/07 09:50 AM
What am I talking about? How mortgage interest rates are driven. I continue to see so-called experts, politicians, etc. stating that a Fed rate cut will help adjustable rate holders. That is not the reality.
What drives mortgage rates are Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS). These are the bonds that are a "package" of home loans that are sold on the secondary market. Just as regular bonds trade, MBS trade on an open market and are subject to market forces, not what the Fed does with their rate. In fact, many times mortgage rates move in the opposite direction as the Feds!
So, reality … (2 comments)
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mortgage rates: Dilbert and the Mortgage Market: Can You Relate? - 08/13/07 04:07 PM
This Sunday's paper had a Dilbert cartoon strip that caught my attention and related directly to how mortgages are being offered in the name of "competition".
The Dilbert cartoon was about the boss asking Dilbert to prepare a proposal that is full of lies and which if they were to win, they would have to add "unexpected" changes that would eventually drive the costs up.
Dilbert points out that they didn't have the right products nor the expertise to handle the customer's needs. The boss then says to say they do and they will figure it out later. Then Dilbert points … (3 comments)
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mortgage rates: Adjustable or Fixed Rate: Which One Should You Choose? - 07/27/07 03:24 PM
With all of the media reports about how bad ARMs and exotic mortgages are, you would first jump to the conclusion that Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRMs) are clearly the better deal. I am sure you have seen the reports of the subprime woes and how many families have been forced into foreclosure due to these types of loans either resetting or recasting. With all of the bad news out there, how could ARMs possibly be worthwhile?
The answer may surprise you. ARMs and exotic mortgages, including the Option ARMs (you know, the ones that everyone hate now), do have their benefits and … (12 comments)
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