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market report: The Big Week to come. The rest of it anyway. - 03/30/10 09:50 PM
Like all markets, interest rates are sensitive to various economic news and events that impact the broader markets. This is a big, big week for those reports. With the Fed exit from the MBS market, these reports will have an impact more than usually. The Fed has softened blows and stabilized things when volatility would have otherwise taken over. We don't have that safety net anymore so watch these reports, not bankrate.com or your local paper, the paper is yesterday's news and bankrate.com (or lending tree or any of them) are all ads and are geared to get you in … (3 comments)
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market report: Mortgage Rates; follow up on last week and a lesson in "averages" - 03/29/10 08:56 PM
In most things in life and sports (especially Baseball which is right around the corner) we pay a lot of attention to and put a lot of emphasis on averages. We look at average daily expenses for budgeting, we determine what time we leave for work or a trip based on the average time it takes us to get to our destination, we predict most things in our lives, no matter how important or how trivial based on averages. We also will perk up and take notice when those averages start trending in a new direction. For example we might look … (1 comments)
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market report: Mortgage Rates; where we've been and where we're headed. - 03/25/10 09:39 PM
Keeping these 3 simple "'key thoughts" in mind:
Mortgage rates go up when the price of mortgage backed securities (MBS) go down. Mortgage rates go down when the price of MBS go up.
So if you've been half way paying attention you know that The Federal Reserve has been buying mortgage backed securities by the truck load since Jan. 2009.
If you half way paid attention in your high school economics class you'll remember that price is driven by supply and demand and something that changes one or the other without an equal change in the other price of that "widget", … (4 comments)
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market report: Competive Quotes or Deceptive Lending? - 01/12/10 06:19 PM
I lost a quote today, not real worried about it but it brings up something that always has left a bad taste in my mouth. For better or for worse, I monitor and study the market as much as if not more than any other loan officer out there. I know where we are, have a decent idea on where things are headed (in the short run anyway and definitely in the long run....it's that middle ground that's always tricky, but I digress.) Point being, if I am being put up against another quote by a potential borrower, I know first … (1 comments)
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market report: Oh what fun it is. - 02/05/09 08:08 PM
I haven't posted anything in forever, it's been a good thing though that I've been so busy but it's also gotten me totally out of the habit. I'll do what I can not to let it slip from here on.
We've got the jobs report coming out tomorrow morning at 8:30am so maybe, just maybe, we'll see rates come back just a bit closer than the general public thinks that they are. For once though, mortgage rates are based so much more on what the lenders can A) handle volume wise. Remember, for the past 18 months mortgage companies and the … (1 comments)
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market report: Gotta love the holidays and confirmation of my sanity. - 12/02/08 06:52 PM
The days are much shorter, the night air a little crisper, the smell of a fire, Christmas music piped into every grocery store and gas station you walk into, and Philly Fed President Charles Prosser confirming the Fed's expected move to purchase Fannie and Freddie Mortgage Bonds. Takes me right back to childhood Christmas memories! Not to mention the fact we're finally getting that significant rate drop I've been screaming about being on the horizon for almost 2 months now. I'm not crazy after all......
The FNMA 5.5% mortgage bond, our new bench mark, suffered a little bit of a setback … (1 comments)
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market report: Right back to basic economics. Not that anything is normal, don't worry. - 11/25/08 04:50 PM
Supply and demand. Anyone who has ever even half way paid attention in economics or just half way paid attention to the world around you knows that supply and demand are the primary driving force in prices. Obviously breaking that down further gets into the advanced courses so to speak, but for the most part it always comes back to supply and demand.
Knowing that higher prices on mortgage backed securities equates to lower yield and therefore lower interest rates on home mortgages, we like to see our FNMA MBS heading up because that lowers the prices of houses, lowers interest … (1 comments)
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market report: Bingo! - 11/12/08 07:24 PM
I've had that "a watched pot never boils" feeling lately with this looming market adjustment that I've been calling for. Well, wouldn't you know that today, the first day I've taken a little bit of a break from my O.C.D.-esque monitoring is the day that we're seeing my prediction sprout some legs!
Here's a brief summary of what we're looking at for right now. Economy....still not good. Jobs report from last week.....hasn't changed and still not good. The problem is that it hasn't impacted the bond market and therefore mortgage rates the way that it "was supposed to impact them." Today, … (1 comments)
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market report: Well.....lets see said the blind man. - 11/11/08 09:17 PM
My grandfather used to say that all the time. I've started to think it makes more sense lately. I feel like a blind man trying to get a grip on this market. John Thain, CEO of Merrill Lynch, said that this current global economic landscape is more similar to the 1929 environment leading into the Great Depression, not like the recent recessions of 87, 98, and 01. Considering none of us, or not that I know of anyway, were around and doing business then, that would clear up why no one seems to be able to get a grip on things. The … (6 comments)
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market report: Well, 2 weeks was long enough. - 11/06/08 07:22 PM
I can't believe I've slipped out of the habit of getting a post up here at least 3 times a week, if not more. I'm sure everyone has been alright without my boring, technical, analysis of what's going on. But, needless to say the last 2 weeks haven't been very quiet, that's for sure.
We've had two Fed Rate cuts....of course that didn't push our mortgage rates down. The last three days on the other hand did. A bond rally started on Tuesday and gained even more yesterday. Today saw some early profit taking and we actually got down to a … (2 comments)
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market report: I'm a slacker - 10/18/08 01:37 PM
Been awhile since I got a new post up here, crazy week of work can do that to you. Volatile is becoming an overused term anymore but I swear that's being redefined every week. This week was no exception. The Dow has been on wicked roller coaster and closed the weekend down, after trading in a 567point range, losing 127points on the day to close at 8,852 while the S&P shed 5 points to close at 940. The NASDAQ also finished 6 points on the red side of the line to close at 1,711. Switching focus this week on the Mortgage … (3 comments)
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market report: What a way to close the week and few words of "wisdom" - 10/10/08 06:34 PM
Not getting into it, just feel obligated to update you on where things closed. Dow was down 128 points at the close, finished the week at 8,451. S&P shed 10 points to close at 899 and the good old NASDAQ actually picked up 4 points to close at 1,649. We have a holiday Monday for the markets so the next update on that note will be Tuesday. The 5.5% FNMA continued it's plunge and was taken behind the old woodshed to close down 109bp on the day to finish the week at $98.25.
Have you seen Charlie Wilsons War? The scene at … (1 comments)
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market report: Anyone Still Positive? - 10/09/08 07:51 PM
The first assumption that has to be made is that you have some optimistic tendencies or you wouldn't still be in the business. If my first assumption is incorrect, then you have not been paying attention and had you been paying attention, you most likely wouldn't have gotten out of the bed this morning.
Chicken Little is all I can think about right now except it's not the sky that's falling, it's the stock market. And wow, when it goes, it goes. 1 year ago today, 10/9/07, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed trading at 14,093.08. The NASDAQ was sitting at 2,805 … (13 comments)
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market report: Not for beginners, this is only for those that want to be good at their job. - 10/08/08 07:03 PM
The quick answer on "why this is important." Because your clients will ask you about it and if you don't know the answer, you fuel their fear. And as we've discussed, fear kills deals. Bottom line. If you, their real estate professional, don't have some grip on the financial markets, then you cannot properly advise them in their home buying process. If you do know the answers, you eliminate a lot of the anxiety that will be hoovering over your clients dinner table tonight while your well written and professional offer for that property they loved so much sits unsigned on … (0 comments)
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market report: Today; signals from Berhanke on potential Fed moves. - 10/07/08 08:12 PM
The FNMA 5.5% bond jumped around in a 53bp range today but was under profit-taking pressure because of the recent jumps. All surges have to have little retreats in order to sustain themselves and that's pretty much what we saw today. The bond wrapped up the day trading 19bp lower to close at $100.62. Only one or two lenders repriced from for the worse compared to their initial rate sheets of the morning and that was due in large part to the fact that most of the real damage was done early as we still closed up 28bp from the initial … (1 comments)
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market report: When $700 Billion just isn't enough. - 10/06/08 07:55 PM
Crazy week last week, global markets didn't get that 'rejuvination' needed over the weekend apparently. The Dow fell as much as 800 points during today's trading before mustering up a rally to close "only down 370 points" on fears that the bailout package may have been too little too late to stem any economic downturn. Bonds of course saw the benefit as investors found the safe haven of the bond market for their dollars. Our benchmark, the 5.5% FNMA mortgage bond, traded in a 68bp range and ended up closing at $100.81 which was 56bp higher than we started the day. This … (2 comments)
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market report: Weekly Wrap and Strategy For Us All Moving Forward - 10/04/08 11:08 AM
First the wrap up on the week, then the move forward ideas and suggestions.
Our benchmark FNMA 5.5% mortgage bond was in the red most of the day before recovering losses late in the session to move 6bp higher to close at $100.25. Mortgage bonds moved lower and stocks higher initially following a worse than forecast Jobs Report. Payrolls in September were worse than forecast with a loss of 159,000 jobs vs. the estimated loss of 104,000. That makes 9 consecutive month of job losses. Investors had been expecting an even worse number and the bad jobs data made it more … (1 comments)
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market report: Moving toward the Rescue Bill **UPDATED** - 10/03/08 10:49 AM
Updated: 2:35 pm-
Congress passed the rescue bill this afternoon. Stocks pare a decent amount of their earlier gains, the Dow is up 81 points compared to the 250 it was up to earlier in the day. Nasdaq has cracked 2000 and stayed there, up 24 so far and the S&P is looking at 12 points higher since the open. Mortgage Bonds are showing zero gain on the day, but this is up anywhere from 16 bp to 34 bp from when this mornings rate sheets came out. If this rally continues by moving up a little more even showing … (2 comments)
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market report: Employment figures - 10/03/08 07:44 AM
-159,000 jobs lost compared to an estimated -104,000.
Unemployment rate 6.1%, as expected.
Hourly Earnings +.3% on a +.2% estimated.
Average work week 33.6 on an estimate of 33.7.
Jobs lost was more than expected but other figures come in close to or on the number. Markets react positively to the bad news which is odd and pointing towards the fact that the wait is more on the news coming from Washington. 159,000 jobs lost is not a good thing, worst is 5 years, no reason in the world that should push up the Dow and NASDAQ but it did. Mortgage backed … (1 comments)
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market report: 5 minutes until the report, Wells Fargo knocks Citi out of way and buys Wachovia - 10/03/08 07:27 AM
Dow points lower, NASDAQ as well. MBS open up 9bp ahead of the jobs number.
More to come after the jobs report is released.
… (3 comments)
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Clint Hammond
Columbia,
SC
More about me…
Mortgage Network, Inc
Address: 7011 Garners Ferry Road, Columbia, SC, 29209
Office Phone: (803) 771-6933
Cell Phone: (803) 422-6797
Email Me
In depth analysis of the mortgage market, the driving force behind mortgage rates.
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