Charlie Kentnor's Blog

NAR Proposed Dues Increase

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Wed, 13 Apr 2011 10:01:40 -0700

I just reviewed the NAR Slide show that is to accompany the online Town Hall today. I'd have to say I am not excited. I do not think from what I saw that NAR knows what it is. It looks as if it is trying to be all things to all people (REALTORS® and consumers). I want NAR to support me, a real estate practitioner, on the national level. I want Arizona Association of REALTORS® to support me on the state level as those issues are different. I want NAR to decide whether it is a champion of homeownership, or whether they are doing all that is necessary for me to be successful in my business. I'd like to know what part of their political budget is spent on lobbying, advertising and consulting with state organizations on political strategy? All I saw in that slide show was disorganization and lots of "fluff" to get me to agree to a dues increase. I'm far from convinced - and it's not the $40; it's that it's more money poorly spent.

The market has bottomed. Now what?

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Tue, 22 Feb 2011 08:29:26 -0800

I recently posted this to my blog that goes out to my clients and customers. It represents some degree of frustration, but it also asks the question we all have: When?

"It will happen, won’t it? You know what I mean. The real estate market in Sonoita, Elgin and Patagonia will begin to act more normal. We’ve been waiting a long time, especially if you are trying to sell a parcel of land. But, I can honestly say it hasn’t happened yet.
Our housing inventory remains above 100 units when it should be less than 50. Interest in land parcels is excruciatingly soft. I personally have at least 4 listings of parcels that are great deals even in this market. They are all priced under what they would have sold for 5 or 6 years ago when the market was just starting to trend up at historically high growth rates.
What’s holding us back when we know that our feeder markets are improving? It is apparently the lack of sales in those markets that equate to the ability to purchase in the Mountain Empire. Our price range for most people is over $300,000 and less than $750,000. Our feeder markets are selling well at prices under our low end and thus those folks that would like to move here, but their home is in a higher price bracket, still cannot find a buyer. However, pent up demand and a better lending environment will soon prevail"

Anyone out there that has a cyrstal ball that says when the resort, retirement and second home markets are going to begin to regain popularity?

Winter's End - Recession end?

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Wed, 02 Feb 2011 15:15:52 -0800

Good Ol Phil predicted yesterday that winter was over. Well, in case he didn't look outside today, it is still very much winter in PA as well as here in Southern AZ. I mean, 37º at mid-day! Sure there is not a cloud in the sky, but the north wind does blow and my guess is the windchill is solid in the mid-20's. But, winter is over and this is just a reminder of what we don't want to look forward to next year.

How about the recession? Is it over also? I guess that depends upon whom you ask. Certainly not those still looking for jobs. Probably not too many real estate agents. Shop keepers. Well they had a pretty good holiday season particularly if they also had an internet presence. The economists think it's over. How about you?

I'm very happy to say I had a good January. If February is anything similar, I will cautiously say the real estate market has turned the corner. Wow! Wouldn't that be great! All this inventory that has been waiting for buyers will finally start to diminish. Homes will increase in value. Time on market will decrease. And real estate agents can start to make a decent living again! I sure hope I am right.

Increased buyer activity

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Fri, 29 Oct 2010 14:03:02 -0700

I have seen a measurable increase in inquiries, not clicks, coming through the internet in the past couple of weeks. It could be seasonal, but it could also mean that buyers are really thinking about buying. What a novel idea! Our market is long overdue for some serious people to show up and write contracts. I hope you all are seeing the same thing.

REALTORS® Need to stand up to reality

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 09:59:30 -0700

There is a posting today by a Keller Williams agent in Portland, OR about how she declined to take a land listing from an unrealistic seller. She should be congratulated many times over!

There is a business model being followed by many agents in my community, and elsewhere I assume, that says take any listing you can as by so doing you will control the inventory when the market turns around. It sounds like a good plan on the surface, but I could not buy into it. I feel you have to be honest with people, just like the above agent. Also, as these listings "age" and the calls keep coming in from your sellers asking what has been the activity on my listing and why haven't I received any offers, what are you going to be saying over and over? "You need to reduce your price." Eventually, those listings will leave you and your reputation will be effected in the negative. Your time, I believe, is better spent by listing properties at prices that will sell, even in tough markets. You may have fewer listings, but you will have more time and energy to put into them and thus they will sell! Also, you will gain a reputation as someone who sells real estate rather than just takes listings. And, many of the folks whose listings you did not take will ultimately list with you bec ause they want their property to sell. Sounds like a better plan to me!

Sales up 44% in the Mountain Empire real estate market

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Mon, 19 Apr 2010 17:04:52 -0700

No matter how you look at the two main indicators of our market, unit sales or dollar volume, this is a better year than last for sure. During the first quarter of 2009, 4 homes changed hands with a dollar value of $1,008,900. This year 10 homes changed hands at a combined value of $2,412,400. (All statistics from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service.) Land transactions, however, were a different story: In 2009 there were 6 sales with a total value of $920,726 versus 3 sales with a value of $370,000 this year.

When you consider the total dollar value of transactions in 2010 against 2009 being up 44% ($2,782,400 and $1,929,627), it seems a bit more impressive than it is. Yes, we are happy with the trend, but this time of the year we should see something in the neighborhood of $10MM or so in total sales. Thus, we have a ways to go to get back to a healthy market in the mountain Empire.

Looking ahead, and considering both the national news and the Tucson market, we believe we are now poised to begin to see more buyers. I think it may be the third quarter by the time that happens, but I think us real estate sales people and our seller clients should be smiling more at that time. Stay tuned. I hope to bring even more optimistic news after the end of this quarter!

Market report-2 months 2010

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 11:11:12 -0800

The first two months of 2010 - in a nutshell

I have just pulled the sales information for the first two months of this year from the Tucson Multiple Listing Service. It's not all that bad, but it's not great - yet. During this time, there were 9 sales: 3 land sales and 6 home sales. The land sales were all in Elgin and ranged from $60,000 to $135,000. The 7 home sales ranged form $170,000 to $464,500. Total volume was $2,068,400.
This is a nice start to the year, but with over 100 homes for sale, we have a three year supply at this rate. We should be working with about a year and a half based on a "normal" year.

Looking ahead

As stated previously, there are 101 homes for sale as of today. These range in price from $79,500 to $3,375,000. There are 188 lots for sale as of today and they range in price from $22,520 to $3,350,000. Considering the size of our inventory and the fact that it matches the historic requirements of our buyers, I anticipate a very strong market once the buyers return; and that is the big question: When? My own best guess, based upon information from the National Association of REALTORS®, is that our market will become vibrant in the late summer or early fall. Nationally, markets are improving, even in hard hit Phoenix and Tucson. Inventory levels have readjusted and prices are very low. Not good news for sellers, but great news for buyers.

For more information, please email or call me.

Charlie

Global Warming and the real estate markets

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Sun, 31 Jan 2010 09:55:07 -0800

The following link takes you to an article that appeared in the Wall Street Journal about global warming. It is yet another explanation, but perhaps more plausible. http://ow.ly/12gus

The national real estate markets, save for commercial, are generally looking very positive. Financing is still an issue and selling one home to buy another is still not the easiest task to complete. Nevertheless, the overall trend seems strong and sustainable.

The Mountain Empire market is still undergoing some adjustment as there have not been nearly enough purchases of homes to offset the replacement inventory. Last year there were about 70 homes in our area listed in the Tucson MLS. The other day the total was 102! The normal level should be in the 60's, or about 1 1/2 years. (Normal for urban markets is about 6 months which is about where Tucson is.) So, we have a great buyer's market with many choices in all price ranges. The way we are absorbing inventory (not!) leads me to think it will be a year to two years before we are close to normal levels. -- As for land, it is still hardly selling at this point. This fact is the result of too many homes on the market and too few buyers in general.
In summary: If you are a seller, you must be patient and you must make sure your home or lot is priced right. If you are a buyer, you won't see a better time than now in our market.If you have spare cash to invest, think about land. If you are thinking of relocating here, aggressively price your current home so you can take advantage of the excellent inventory we now have.

Have a wonderful week!

The year end wrap - 2009

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Sun, 27 Dec 2009 08:05:17 -0800

It's 12/27/2009. Twenty-Ten is just hours away. I'm well into my thinking and planning for next year, but I am still reflecting on the year almost past.
All of us in the real estate business were faced with new and challenging opportunities this year. It wasn't so much that we didn't know it was coming, but most of us are optimists and accepting the reality of fewer buyers in the market - and many fewer they were in the Mountain Empire - was really uncharted territory. We hunkered down and readjusted all our marketing and promotional efforts to bring in buyers to our overabundant inventory. It was a real buying opportunity!

Well a couple of things happened: Active home listings climbed from 79 to 95 and total transactions (homes and land) were almost identical to 2008 and half of 2007. So our inventory is still way out of balance and actually moving in the wrong direction. Tucson, on the other hand, is now virtually in balance with about a six months supply of homes versus our three year supply!

In order to see this market return to normal, we need the target markets from whence our buyers come to come back in balance like Tucson so they can sell their current homes. Even though interest rates are still historically low, lenders are not lending without reasonable down payments and very good credit. Cash is king!

I believe our market is poised to begin a sustained rebound by mid-year, if not sooner. We have traditionally lagged Tucson by six months or so and that market "normalized" in the third quarter. I am excited to have so many opportunities for my buyer clients and I believe my sellers will be happy as well!

Charlie Kentnor, Associate Broker

Realty Executives Southern Arizona - Sonoita

ABR, GRI, SRS, e-PRO

(520) 591-0425

What to do with too much inventory?

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Mon, 07 Dec 2009 11:35:44 -0800

Last Friday I ran a list of homes for sale in my market and listed on the Tucson MLS. It is astounding! The number just keeps on rising. The tally was 97 and there are several other homes listed elsewhere. Our normal sales level is about 35 and our normal number of homes for sale is about 45, with 60 being off the charts in the past.

I believe everyone of the local REALTORS® is doing what they can to attract buyers, but it seems we just attract more and more sellers. I'm looking for any novel ideas out there to see if I can expand the universe of buyers into more markets. We have a graet climate - maybe the best! - and we have easy access to the Tucson airport and Tucson shopping as well as Sierra Vista and Nogales. This is not the desert. This is a grassland with mountain views in all quadrants at 5,000' MSL.

Ranch Opportunity

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Fri, 20 Nov 2009 10:54:20 -0800

I just want everyone to be aware of a great ranch property in SE Arizona. For pictures, information, use this link: http://ow.ly/E3qh

You just never know whom you might meet during the holidays and what a great chance for a nice referral fee.

Happy Thanksgiving and Happy Holidays!

Flurry

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Tue, 03 Nov 2009 12:03:14 -0800

Believe it or not, we had snow flurries about a week ago here in the high mountain grassland south of Tucson! We've also had a flurry of market activity, but will it develop into a full-flegged blizzard? I think not. This real estate recovery is going to take several years to get back to normal, but there will be bursts of activity in the interim. That's because there will be intermittent periods of bad news, the unemployment rate is going to take some time before it drops significantly and the lenders are still trying to figure out what to lend on. But go figure, the number of people signing on with the Tucson Association of Realtors® and MLS is increasing! The number of homes being listed for sale in my market is increasing! (Yesterday, it was 86 which is well over a two year supply.) I guess a lot of people don't feel the way I do. What do you think?

Winds of change?

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 08:34:28 -0700

When I let the dogs out this morning, there was a strong fall "breeze". I got to thinking whether or not this was some omen about our real estate market? I have been witnessing more buyer activity in our market which coincides with when I thought the market would be turning. Although I am sure I am right, (oh yeah!), I am still a bit reluctant to say that the good times in real estate are back with us. What I can say is that buyers better hurray up as it will be a seller's market shortly!

Changes are a blowin' in the wind

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Sat, 19 Sep 2009 19:58:28 -0700

My own real estate buyer representation has picked up along with others in the Mountain Empire. It may be too soon to proclaim the downturn is over, but I'm inclined to think it is. I had forecast since the beginning of the year that the end of summer should be the end of our bear market here. I sincerely hope what I have been experiencing these past several weeks continues and we all enjoy a more normal market.

With 80 homes for sale, or about a two year supply, I don't envision any short term price increases. What is surprising, of late, is the interest in raw land. I can't really explain that except for the paucity of buyers over the past two years. Pent up demand and perhaps a recognition of the market bottom is bringing about the change. Owners willing to carry back is also helping.

In case your missed the NAR news release on existing home sales

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Thu, 03 Sep 2009 20:53:03 -0700

In case your missed the NAR news release on existing home sales, here's a quick link.

http://ow.ly/nZSz

I have been predicting (guessing?) that the market was going to turn sometime this summer. This is just one futher indication.

The Mountain Empire of Southeastern Arizona

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 22:13:18 -0700

Not normally considered a resort area, although we do have an outstanding dude ranch founded many years ago (Circle Z); Not normally considered a retirement area because it is low on the radar screen; And the same goes for second homes. (BusinessWeek just ranked us #10 and Tucson #1.) However, our area is all of those because of the history, the clear skies, the wide open vistas, the best year round climate due to our elevation (5,000' msl) and our proximity to one of the nicest small cities in the country - Tucson. Below is a link to my website. Please check it out and the links to our local sites with more area information.

Observations from these tight times

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Wed, 12 Aug 2009 22:00:08 -0700

It's happening in all markets - not just mine. A sign goes up on a property. The company may be familiar, but the agent's name is not. What's happening? Seller dissatisfaction with area companies and agents? Out-prospected by an eager beaver? An agent whose website comes up higher in a search even though they don't work the area? Actually, all of the above, or a combination.

What's wrong with this? From one perspective, the seller's, nothing. From the local agents' (and the real estate commissioner's) practicing outside the area of one's expertise. How do you feel about this?

One of the top 50 places to retire

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Sat, 11 Jul 2009 20:20:49 -0700

What a surprise! Well, I knew it all along. Elgin, Arizona ranks 10th in the latest BusinessWeek survey of the top 50 places to retire. It truly has the best year round climate, super mountain views and a growing wine industry. To see the actual survey, please click on the following link. Sure hope this great news brings us some buyers!!

http://images.businessweek.com/ss/09/07/0702_affordable_places_to_retire/11.htm

More activity in the marketplace

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 22:20:07 -0700

Looking back over the past couple of weeks, it is evident that there are more lookers in my market. I have had multiple showings of my listings the past two weeks and even have someone coming back a second time tomorrow to one of my listings. I certainly hope this isn't a momentary blip. What's happening where you are?

My (new) ActiveRain Blog

Charlie Kentnor (Keller Williams Southern Arizona) — Fri, 12 Jun 2009 18:52:57 -0700

I have just initiated a new blog in order to reach as many of my friends, customers and clients to keep them appraised of what's happening in my area.

The good news is: There are some escrows happening! I'm hopeful that my original forecast of the bottom happening this summer will become a reality. It sure seems that way right now.

I want to bring to everyone's attention a great new event for our Mountain Empire: The Mountain Empire Rotary Club is orchestrating a weekend of events centered around the vineyards of Elgin. Please visit the event website, www.mountainempirewinanddine.com, for more information.