Did anyone see the Golden Globes last Sunday, January 11th, 2009?
I was watching and I thought it was a pretty entertaining show--not trying to be a show, but just a lot of celebrities having fun. There were a lot of emotional moments, and lots of drinking, so there was a certain sense of anything could happen--let your hair down. Jennifer Lopez wore the most outragious dress: gold and the only thing covering her back was husband Marc Antony. Megan Fox was pretty outrageous mouth-wise on the red carpet. Maybe she was upset that boyfriend Brian Austin Green wasn't there. A somber moment when Heath Ledger won best supporting actor posthumously for "The Dark Knight." Kate Winslet won for both "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road" and was beside herself. "Slumdog Millionaire" won the most awards--including best picture--really great if you were rooting for the underdog. Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin both won for "30 Rock."
My favorite moment was when Mickey Rourke--not when they blacked out the screen, no I mean when he thanked his dog. When he won Best Actor for "The Wrestler" he thanked his dogs, and gave the impression that when he was in his darkest moment, dogs were the only ones who stood by him. The story of a wrestler making a comeback paralleled his own story of a washed up actor making a comeback. What a tale of redemption.
"I'd like to thank all my dogs, the ones that are here, the ones that aren't here anymore, because sometimes when a man's alone, all you've got is your dog--and they meant the world to me."
Now, I am happy for Kate Winslet but I wish that Anne Hathaway and Marisa Tomei could have won instead.
Did anyone see the Golden Globes last Sunday, January 11th, 2009?
I was watching and I thought it was a pretty entertaining show--not trying to be a show, but just a lot of celebrities having fun. There were a lot of emotional moments, and lots of drinking, so there was a certain sense of anything could happen--let your hair down. Jennifer Lopez wore the most outragious dress: gold and the only thing covering her back was husband Marc Antony. Megan Fox was pretty outrageous mouth-wise on the red carpet. Maybe she was upset that boyfriend Brian Austin Green wasn't there. A somber moment when Heath Ledger won best supporting actor posthumously for "The Dark Knight." Kate Winslet won for both "The Reader" and "Revolutionary Road" and was beside herself. "Slumdog Millionaire" won the most awards--including best picture--really great if you were rooting for the underdog. Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin both won for "30 Rock."
My favorite moment was when Mickey Rourke--not when they blacked out the screen, no I mean when he thanked his dog. When he won Best Actor for "The Wrestler" he thanked his dogs, and gave the impression that when he was in his darkest moment, dogs were the only ones who stood by him. The story of a wrestler making a comeback paralleled his own story of a washed up actor making a comeback. What a tale of redemption. "I'd like to thank all my dogs, the ones that are here, the ones that aren't here anymore, because sometimes when a man's alone, all you've got is your dog--and they meant the world to me."
Now, I am happy for Kate Winslet but I wish that Anne Hathaway and Marisa Tomei could have won instead.
As a Real Estate Agent in Bakersfield, California I am interested in spotting trends, both nationwide and locally. One good test of whether we are in a Buyer's or a Seller's market is called the Absorption Rate. That means looking at the inventory of homes, seeing how many sold in the past month, then dividing the total inventory by the amount sold. This gives you an idea of how many months it would take to sell off all the houses at the current pace of sales if no new homes went on the market. Though the numbers are constantly changing, and this model is a simplification of what is going on, it can nevertheless give you a really good idea of what is going on. The tipping point between a Buyer's or a Seller's Market is 6 months. If it would take longer than 6 months to sell off all the available houses, then the market is saturated, and that favors the Buyer. Sellers are the Supply, and Buyers are the Demand. If it would take less than 6 months, then the Sellers have an advantage, according to the Law of Supply and Demand.
In a Buyer's Market, if you find a motivated Seller, who really wants to Sell, or has to Sell, you can make low ball offers and have a good chance of being accepted. But once the tipping point of 6 months or less absorption rate is reached then you might find lots of Buyer's trying to get the same property, and the bidding becomes competitive and you might have to offer more to out bid the others. The lower the absorption rate, the more it favors the Seller.
Let's take a look at the numbers: Right now there are 3,301 homes for sale in Bakersfield in the MLS, and of those 3,301 there are 1,151 Traditional Homes, 1,208 REO, or Bank Owned, foreclosure properties, and 942 Short Sales. The Short Sales are homes that are offered for less than what is owed on the mortgage, and they require the lender's approval. REO's have already been foreclosed and the banks are trying to sell them to recover as much of the money as possible, but Short Sales require the lenders to let the Buyers off the hook and write off the loss.
So, of the 3,301 homes for sale right now in Bakersfield 35% are Traditional Sales, 37% are REO, and 28% are Short Sale offerings. From September 1st to October 1st, 2008 there where 604 Sales in Bakersfield, California. That translates to a 5.48 month absorption rate. Of the 604 sales in September, 161 were traditional sales, 378 where REO sales, and 65 were Short Sales. That means 27% Traditional Sales, 63% REO Sales, and only 10% Short Sales.
If we break up Bakersfield by zip code, then we get different numbers. For an example, I will use the 93312 zip code, which is the zip code for where my office is located in Northwest Bakersfield. There are 352 homes for sale in 93312, with 133 being Traditional Sales, 86 being REO, and 133 being homes offered as Short Sales. That's 38% Traditional, 24% REO, and 38% Short Sale.
104 homes were sold in 93312 zip code from September 1st to October 1st. That is a 3.38 month absorption rate. 93312 is even more of a Seller's Market than Bakersfield as a whole. Of the 104 homes that sold in September, 35 or 34% were Traditional Sales, 51 or 49% were REO's, and 18 or 17% were Short Sales.
On Tuesday, September 2nd, in lieu of our usual sales meeting, a lot of agents from McKinzie Nielsen Real Estate helped build a house for Habitat for Humanity. We had a great time, and it was a great cause. Rosario, the person who will get to live in the house once it is finished, was also there helping. She is very excited and grateful to be getting a house. It was so nice to be appreciated.
We got a lot done, though we only worked until 11:00, which is the standard operating proceedure for Habitat for Humanity during the week. You get quite a sense of accomplishment. For me this was my first time volunteering for HFH, and it won't be my last!
If you want to volunteer, contact Habitat for Humanity in Bakersfield. Here is the info:
Golden Empire, HFH - PO Box 3267 Bakersfield, CA 93385-3267
Today, Friday March 21st, we had a Real Estate Caravan, and who should arrive but The Easter Bunny? Somehow, I never see The Easter Bunny and Sheryl Gallion of Ticor Title in the same place, and this has been going on since 1984?!?!?!
The Bakersfield Real Estate Caravan looked at houses in Northwest Bakersfield today, between Allen and Coffee, North of Rosedale Highway.
In other news, I found out that the LA Times only posts articles on the public website for a week, so all the links I have been putting in my Bakersfield Real Estate blog are getting broken. I am going to rethink my strategy. Also, I think my blog about taking Local Honey to stave off hay fever has had an effect, because when I went back to the store, all of the Sage and Orange Blossom Kern Honey was sold, and only the Buchwheat Honey was left. One of our agents claimed he heard a rumor about Local Honey having a beneficial effect on allergies, and I can claim full credit for spreading that rumor.
March 17th, St Patrick's Day, and then two days later, the swallows return to Capistrano. Someone I know has a birthday on March 19th, so I incorporated a little of the Capistrano legend and lore into a birthday greeting. Did you know that the swallows fly all the way from Argentina? Legend has it that they carried twigs in their beaks, so they could rest in the water, using the twigs as little life rafts. Saw a great blog from the Real Estate agents of San Juan Capistrano, who tied the story into their observation that the buyers seemed to be returning along with the swallows. Though the evidence is anecdotal, and may even be apocryphal, here it is:
The next day I went to the luncheon sponsored by REPERs (Real Estate Professional's Educational Resource) and The Bakersfield chapter of The Women's Council of Realtors at the Stockdale Country Club:
WCR Bakersfield (They haven't updated their website in a while. I wonder if they would let me in to their events for free in exchange for updating their website?)
The speaker was Liz Callihan, and she brought her Texas-sized wisdom and common sense to the subject of technology in Real Estate. Smart Phones, Texting, Blogging, Tablet Lap Tops, Mobile Printers, Miniature Digital Voice Recorders, Mobile Scanners, and 500 gigabyte back-up units were just a few of the devices she demonstrated.
Want to scan receipts on-the-go, and have the information automatically entered into your accounting software? Try this neat receipt scanner:
Use a digital voice recorder to capture ideas--or even write the Great American Novel. Then you can use Dragon Naturally Speaking software to type it up:
Liz Callihan had many great tips and tricks that would benefit any Real Estate Agent, business person, or entrepreneur. She recommends that you put lanyards on your keys, and all of these gadgets, so you won't lose them. For smart phones, get ones with big keyboards, and big buttons. Not only are they easier to press the buttons without hitting the one next to it, you can also see them better.
The iPhone? More like iCandy--it looks good, but you can't really use it for business.
And Vista? When you buy a new computer they try to force it on you, but they've had so many returns and complaints that you can now demand Windows XP, and Microsoft has backed off and is now committed to supporting XP for at least 2 more years.
If your computer is slow and locks up if you try to run more than 2 or 3 programs at the same time, check your RAM (Random Access Memory). Right click on the My Computer icon, and then choose Properties. It will show you how much RAM memory you have. You might have a gazillion gigs of memory on your hard drive, but then you skimped on RAM memory. Liz compared the hard drive memory to a storage unit, and the RAM was a truck. When you want to use a program, it is loaded into RAM much like a truck picks up your stuff from the storage unit. If you have tons of stuff, but then try to move it with a little tiny truck, there is a bottleneck. You need a BIG RIG!!! 2 gigabytes of RAM memory will dramatically increase your computer's speed.
Liz Callihan dropped by our office after the luncheon to talk tech (minus the geek speak) with our sales manager, Nancy Harper, and I. She really has a gift for explaining how to use technology in plain English. Her engagement for the WCR is an annual event. Here is Liz Callihan's web site:
In the Bakersfield Californian, there was a story about home tours. That is where an agent rents a bus or van and then takes a group of buyers out to look at houses. I have noticed a lot of activity lately, with buyers out there looking for bargains. Some are waiting to see when the market hits the bottom, but others are out there now, getting great deals, and having a lot of options to choose from, with so many houses on the market now.
I am reminded of the joke about, "No one goes downtown anymore. It's too crowded." We are seeing multiple offers now, mostly on aggresively priced REOs, but still. Multiple offers. There is a lot of demand in the $200-$250 range, and I would expect that is because they are first time home buyers who don't have to worry about selling their own house first. I wouldn't be surprised if the low listing price was used as a strategy. It looks like a great deal, so it gets multiple offers, and the price gets bid up, much like what happens in an auction. They end up paying more for the house than other houses that were originally listed higher.
Here is an article from the LA Times about the stock market tumble, I think as a reaction to the news about Bear & Stearns being sold at fire sale prices. The stock market is up, then down, then back up. It is like a roller coaster. Same thing with the mortgage rates. For the most part, the rates if graphed would be a soft curve, but lately, it looks like a roller coaster. Up and down, a jagged lightning bolt--some days they couldn't even set a rate, it was all in a state of flux. This is a highly unusual market.
Here is another story from the LA Times, about the sub-prime watchdogs. It seems that the lenders weren't interested in hearing about potential problems coming down the pipeline. No wonder we are in such a mess now. This is a pretty good article if you are interested in hearing about how we have gotten ourselves into this situation.
Here is a blog from the LA Times about what goes on at a foreclosure auction. Some of our REO listings are offered at these auctions, but I have heard that you might win the auction, and think you have a house, but the banks won't approve it, and will counter offer. This doesn't seem fair, if they only sell the houses that are market value or over bid. The whole point of an auction is to get a great deal.
A lot of the REO listings that went to these auctions didn't sell, and were back on the market a month later. Also, if they did sell at the auction, the commission paid to the sales agent was so small that it wouldn't be worth it. But that isn't a concern to the sort of person looking for a deal at one of these auctions. Just don't expect a Real Estate Agent to help you with it. You might think I am just talking it down because of self interest, but while sitting an open house for one of these auction properties, an investor came and told me that he had put in a low bid, the highest bid, so he should have gotten it, but then the bank backed out. Now, if he had gone overboard, swept up in "auction fever" and bid too much, they would have held him to it. In the case I was told about, it was a bid of $100,000 on a property that was listed at $160,000.
Bidding for a bargain on the foreclosure auction block
Here is a related story in the LA Times about the old auction block.
Finally, I just want to say that FHA Loans are looking better these days. Some lenders don't like to do them because of the extra work involved, but they offer a lot of advantages to the borrower. FHA loans have changed, and a lot of the reasons why people disliked them are no longer true.
If your credit score is not so high, and if you have a high debt to income ratio, and if you need some assistance with the down payment, then FHA might be the loan for you. Anyway, consider it as an option, and if your lender bad mouths it, it could be because they are not set up to do FHA loans. There is still some extra work and forms required, but if you get a lender who knows how to do FHA loans, they could have a lot of benefits for you, the borrower.
There are also some great VA loans out there for you veterans!
I am constantly scanning the media, looking for signs about which direction our economy is going, and wondering how that will affect the housing market. They say that Economics is "the dismal science" but I find it exciting--especially when you translate all the numbers, graphs, and trends into cold, hard cash. It's all about the Benjamin's (as in Benjamin Franklin, the face on the $100).
Here are a few articles I have found, and not all the news is bad.
The article in the Wall Street Journal actually says that NOW is a good time to buy a house. But not so good to sell a house. It is a buyer's market, but if you must first sell your current house before you can buy, then it is a little harder to take advantage of the housing slump. But if you want to trade up to a bigger and better house, now is still a good time. Though you would lose a bit on the sale of your current house, you would make up for it on the other end. Or if you want to buy a second house as a vacation home, now is also good. Finally, if you want to help your kids get their first home, now would be a great time.
Those whacky, contrarian economists over at UCLA are saying that 2008 will be disappointing, but not a recession. They claim that they predicted the last recession, when the conventional wisdom was that we weren't headed for one. If they are right again, that could be good news. Read all about it in the LA Times. Bernanke Seeks to Avert Deeper Slump by Accepting Mortgage Debt
Bloomberg reports on that other Benjamin, Bernanke, and his vigorous efforts to shore up our economy. Again, it's all about the Benjamins.
This is a related story about the same thing, the Benjamins, i.e. Bernanke and the feds. This time it is from NPR (National Public Radio) instead of Bloomberg.
For people who don't like to read that much, this is a pod cast from NPR's Morning Edition of March 11th, 2008: Renee Montagne gets a firsthand account of the paralysis in the credit markets with Hugh Johnson, chief investment strategist at Johnson Illington Advisors. Johnson says borrowers are reluctant to make loans these days even to people with good credit.
I am still a little young for this, but wouldn't it be nice to just get a mobile home out in Kernville by the Kern River?
There's the South San Joaquin where the seeds of the dustbowl are found. And there's a place called Mount Whitney where the mighty Kern River comes down. It's not deep nor wide but it's a mean piece o' water, my friend. I might cross on the highway, but I'll never swim Kern River again . . .
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