I took off many months from Blogging and Predicting where the market would go because so many unpredictable events were happening on Wall Street and Main Street....        With so many new precedents being set, and rules being made up through Congress and The Treasury Dept I thought it would make more sense to watch what happening and learn from it, than to actually try to figure out why it all happened!!

I am still loving my job as a realtor and had 2 nice closings for $660,000 last week for my 1st settlements with my new company...    Keller Williams Real Estate in Blue Bell.     NICE!!!

Both clients got great houses, in great locations, and at GREAT PRICES!!!    I enjoyed every minute that I spent helping my clients buy their 1st house!!     One client looked at about 40 or 50 houses....    One client looked at about 6 or 8 houses...       Both clients had the exact same experience while traveling vastly different roads to the Settlement Table.       AWESOME!!

Interest rates are pretty much at an ALL TIME LOW!!     I am doing a lot of ZERO FEE refinances for past clients, new customers, and friends and family!!      Rates right now are hovering in the high 4's and low 5's depending on what day it is...       

I am looking forward to a GREAT 2009 and hope that all of you are as well!!!

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL ACTIVE RAINERS!!!!          CARPE DIEM IN 2009  

 

So....       As much as I enjoy writing about the Markets, and interest rates, and mortgages and real estate... 

I play to a scratch handicap, and successfully competed in last years REMAX LONG DRIVE CHAMPIONSHIP.    My longest drive was about 385 yards with most of them being well in excess of 325 yards!!      I love golf and love to share my expertise with my friends, family, and clients!!         

I also like to write about golf.   I have written a lot of golf columns over the years.   So many people enjoy this game even while it frustrates them to the core sometimes.     I teach golf to a good amount of students every golf season.     Obviously one of the biggest requests that I get from my students is to fix their slice.     This is easier said than done, yet I have never had a student that had a slice that I couldn't fix. 

My students always ask me, "Why does my golf ball slice so much"    There are only a couple of reasons why and how a ball can curve during its flight after contact with your golf club.  

WELL....    there are more reasons than that, but who wants to talk about Shanks and Hosel Rockets and other unmentionable golf shots that tend to go more Right than Left....     I just want to talk about shots that originate off the club face not the heel, toe, hosel, or the always entertaining...    The Shaft Breaker....   These are rare...    but Entertaining!!

The golf ball begins...    At Rest.     

Said golf ball is affected by a nicely shaped steel or titanium mass moving at about 100 miles an hour attached to a shiny steel shaft, a grip, and a golfer.     Depending on the golfer there are countless outcomes....... Just a lot of things in life...       It's all in the delivery!!!     Get to the ball down the right swing path and with the clubface in the right attitude for your golf swing and get ready to watch in AWE as your golf ball goes directly towards your intended target like an arrow.

Here are 2 main reasons for Slicing or Hitting it Left to Right....     (For us Southpaw's it's Right to Left.....)

1.  Open club face at impact as opposed to having and keeping your clubface square through the hitting area

2.  An outside to inside swing path with the golf club.     This means you slap at it, instead of hitting from a more solid and consistent striking angle..      This is easy to fix in a one on one lesson!!

What are the fixes??     In this BLOG I will deal with helping you establish a fundamentally sound golf grip which will help to eliminate Reason 1 for slicing...         I will deal with Reason 2 in my next Blog....      Both of these are much easier to explain in person, but here goes!!!

 

Let's start with some fundamentals!!       How is your grip on the golf club...      Do you have a weak or strong grip...       A weak grip is a grip where your dominant hand ( Right hand for RH golfers/Left hand for LH golfers)  assumes a position that is more on top of the club instead of more underneath the club.  This makes it difficult for you "roll" your hands over and get the clubface closed before you get to the hitting zone.  

A strong grip is just the opposite...   A strong grip will let the dominant hand slip underneath and around the bottom of the grip so as to give more control to the dominant hand.   This type of grip is usually best achieved by using a 10 finger baseball style grip....     This grip allows the clubface to close quite easily, and usually is the cause of a wicked hook...   or a running draw....      A good shot trajectory when you know how to pull this type of shot off when you need it.

A good golf grip is a grip that allows you to generate maximum energy while maintaining a neutral relationship between both of your hands on the grip of the club so that you can deliver the clubface squarely.....    Not open or closed....  This 50/50 relationship allows golfers to swing harder and hit the ball farther because you have already insured the fact that your clubface is not being dominated by one of your hands.

To find this neutral position on the grip with your hands there are a couple of tricks that I can tell you about before you put your hands on the club to hit the ball.     First of all.     Put your hands together in front of your chest with your chin up.     Match your fingers and palms perfectly up with one another like you are praying!!    YES...     A little prayer goes a long way in golf!!    

This is the perfect neutral position for the hands to be on the club.     The challenge here is that one of your hands needs to be the top hand on the grip and one of your hands needs to be the bottom hand.     Dominant hand goes on the bottom unless you play cross handed....     Which is a whole 'nother lesson.

Take your perfectly matched up hands and if you are right handed slide your left hand up a little bit, and your right hand down a little bit until the fat pads on your thumbs are no longer matching up anymore.    The fingers on your left hand should be about an inch longer now because of this slide up move.   

Notice how your hands fit together this way....    This is a neutral position in which you can now put your hand on the club in the right way.    Grab a wedge or 9 iron and get your hands on the grip now.   

Put the head of the iron on the ground and have the shaft and the grip leaning on your belt buckle.    Always put your weak  hand on the club first....     SO...      Grip the club with your left hand getting more of the grip in your fingers than in your palm.    The most important element of this part of the grip is that the back of your left hand should mirror the face angle of the clubhead.     This means that when you swing the club to hit the ball that if the back of your left hand is square through impact/the hitting zone that your clubface will also be square through hitting zone.     Have fun with this new knowledge...      With only one hand on the club(your weak hand) turn the club right and left and watch how the clubface now mimics every motion that your hand makes....

Now it's time to put your strong hand on the grip as well....     Your hands when they are on the club should fit tightly together with little or no grip showing to the outside world.     With both hands on the grip if you would life the club in front of you so that the iron is now over your head but directly in front of you and perpendicular to the ground....     Your playing partner shouldn't be able to see the dark grip between your fingers.  

Because your dominant hand is the hand on the top of the weak hand and on the bottom of the club it's important to find a place to either overlap or interlock the pinky finger on your dominant hand with the index finger on your weak hand.    Golfers with big hands usually overlap...    smaller hands it makes sense to interlock your pinky finger with the index and middle finger on your weak hand.     This is called the Vardon Grip for golf historians out there....

After getting your hands comfortable with this new grip...... get the club with your hands gripping directly in front of you vertically so that the shaft and the club head are right in front of your face and above your head...      Perfectly vertical to the ground.....       You will know when it is perfectly vertical because the club and shaft will be such perfect balance that you could stay here all day and the club would still be quite light....

This weightless position is what the golf swing is all about....      Let the club "fall" slightly to the right or left...     Feel how heavy the club is....      Get it back to vertical again and feel how light the club becomes....      This weightlessness is why some golfers are able to hit the ball so FAR with such little effort...        Truly a good golfswing...   at least above the waist is all about getting to this weightless position and then making a complete turn to put the club in a great position at the top of the swing....      Try it.

Get the club in front of you...   With your new grip....     Make it weightless...   (VERTICAL)  

NOW....  Pick your target.....        and turn your shoulders to take the club back...    Remember the club should start out right in front of your chest and face and vertical....        Turn your shoulders and extend the club a little bit and you will find that you are close to where you are when you are at the top of your golfswing....  Get the club back where you think it should be at the top of the swing....       Do not take your hands above your chin!!  Unless you are John Daly or you used to moonlight at Cirque Du Soleil you need to keep your hands below your chin during most golf swings!!   

Make sure to keep your left arm straight across your chest....   Keep your head looking towards where the ball would be....    You should feel some tension in the back and outside of your right shoulder....    This tension is part of why you can hit the ball so far....     Your straight left arm doesn't want to stay straight....    or across your chest for any long period of time.     This is one of the biggest catalysts in building power for the golf swing...    resistance...     your arm WANTS to come back down into its normal territory....      Don't let it.....    Until you are ready for it in the downswing....     This is a HUGE part of generating leverage and torque in one's golf swing.   

This new position....    A weightless position at the beginning, middle, and end of the golf swing is one of the most misunderstood parts of the game.   

 

LET ME KNOW IF YOU ARE A LOCAL ACTIVE RAINER TO ME, AND YOU WANT A GOLF LESSON!!!!

 

I TEACH BOTH MEN AND WOMEN SO DON'T BE SHY LADIES!!!      

 

GOLF IS AND CAN BE A GREAT TOOL FOR YOUR REAL ESTATE AND MORTGAGE BUSINES!!!

 

 

 

 

Without a doubt everyone wishes that Bear Stearns was still in business!!   It was an institution on Wall Street that no one wanted to see explode.  It seems though that as a company that Bear Stearns made some bets with some excessive risk that boomeranged right back at them and punched them where it hurts the most on Wall Street.   The bottom line.   When the bookie came to get the $...   The Gig was up!!   I wish Bear Stearns had made different bets!!  

Without Bear Stearns on Wall Street what is actual impact on the economy??    Probably not that much.  It weakens confidence a bit, but for the most part it doesn't really affect what is a HUGE multi zillion dollar juggernaut that is our economy.   It is definitely one of the heavier and most recent straws on the camels back, but this camel(US economy) is stronger than your average camel!!   Resiliency is one its strongest traits.    Our best years are still to come!! 

On March 19th, 2008, there are just as many pressures on the global economy as there was before the Bear Stearns Debacle began to unfurl late last week.   The world keeps revolving. Oil is still $110 a barrel, 63,000 Americans still lost their jobs in February, 85,000 Americans have lost a job this year, Gas is almost $4 a gallon in some locales, the average consumer has seen their 401K and their equity in their house shrink in the past 6 months, and  it seems anything that is anything at the grocery store is still increasing in cost.    With all of these factors and scores of other material factors that would spin the average readers head, it reasons that we are not out of the Woods just yet.  The 420 pt stock market gain was nice yesterday though!!   The US economy can see where the forest ends, but there could be a couple of obstacles, painful as they might be as the US economy attempts to break free of the shadows of Recession.   

The End of tough days on Wall Street sadly are not here yet.     But don't lose heart, with the Fed's aggressive actions the light at the end of the tunnel is not the R5 train to Strafford Station.... it's more jobs, and more corporate profits, and better wages for more employees.    The Fed has employed unique ways and new avenues to provide liquidity to a thirsty banking industry that craves liquidity.   According to my calculations the economy should right itself by the 3rd or 4th quarter this year.  We might even see some  early signs of recovery in some sectors by June.    Housing prices will continue to fall slightly for the rest of this year.  This will be mostly because of the prevalence of foreclosures entering the real estate inventory later this year and being sold for less than typical market value because of condition and corporate policy.        

If you are looking to lock in an interest rate....    Monday was the day.      Today rates will be a bit higher, but with the volatility at record levels anything could happen in the interest rate market today.     You can still lock into today to a great rate, but it will probably be about an eighth in rate higher than Monday's rate. 

We are still at the very bottom of the market as far as mortgages go.      Lock and load if you have settlement dates coming in the next 30 days!!!     If not...   RIDE IT OUT, and we'll see where rates go from here!!!

 

  

 

 

With the actions of The Federal Reserve and JP MORGAN CHASE over the weekend in regard to the Bear Stearns bailout.... it leaves many to think about what's really important to The Federal Reserve and the Government.      Is the Fed more concerned with what happens on Wall Street or what happens on Main Street.      Without a doubt, it's tough to see how one doesn't affect the other in a lot of ways.

If consumers on Main Street stop spending money in their local stores....   Eventually Wall Street will feel the pinch.     If Wall Street and its constituents fall flat on their face it's evident that somewhere somehow it will affect consumers as well.   Consumer confidence is critical for our economy to run well.     Without confident consumers retailers are the first to feel the pinch...  

In the end, the coming days, weeks, and months, it will become increasingly more important that The Federal Reserve and it's policy makers in the government keep an eye on both Wall Street and Main Street.     America is made of lot of little guys that make our economy run......    If the little guy has a problem in our economy...   The Big Guys in our economy feel the pinch.

There are some major economic data that is announced today including new home starts and the Fed's decision to be announced at 2:15 or so that will determine how much of a rate cut the markets and the banking industry will get.    My guess...     After a .25 pt at the Discount Window on Sunday night.....     A .75 pt cut in the Fed Funds Rate is a definite.     The Fed also might decide to wrap up its cutting behavior and include an extra .25 pt to make a total Fed Funds rate cut of an entire point.

What are some of the opinions of other Activer Rainers out there??       How much does The Fed cut today??

Send me replies by 1 pm and I will tally the responses!!

 

I wrote about this late last week, and never thought that it would come to this.   BEAR STEARNS IS OUT OF BUSINESS!!    JP Morgan Chase has agreed...   at the Federal Reserve's urging to buy Bear Stearns for $2 a share....    This amounts to $240 million dollars or so.     

To put this in perspective Bear Stearns stock price was in the Mid $150's about a year and a half ago...     

At the start of last week it was worth more than $59 bucks a share...    and at the close of Fridays stock market..     It was in the low $30's.     Beaten and bloodied no one thought that Bear had really run out of money to the extent that their company's stock was in effect...   WORTHLESS...      OK OK..    $2 a share is still a couple of bucks...  (Their building is worth $10 bucks a share)  But in an effort to avoid knocking over important economic dominoes, the Fed and JP Morgan came up with a plan to keep as many dominoes standing for as long as possible.

Europe and Asia stock markets were down considerably between 3 and 5% for the most part.     US stock futures are down sharply as well.    The only positive that comes out of this type of situation is that interest rates do move lower...   Maybe an eighth or so on most mortgage products!!     5.875% on 30 years and 5.5% on 15 years.... 

RATES ARE LOWER...  but who knows for how long.  Will it be days or weeks??    Surely by the Fall interest rates will not be this attractive!!!      At this end of the bond spectrum, there is not far to go until we effectively hit THE GROUND FLOOR....... 

 

What is THE GROUND FLOOR??    In today's mortgage market this probably equates to around 5% and 0 pts on 15 year fixed rates, and closer to 5.5% on the 30 year fixed rates...    The 2 year US Treasury is now at 1.30%, with the 10 year US Treasury hovering around the 3.35% mark.     We closed at 3.47% on Friday after a positive gain in last weeks market!!   If you have clients that haven't locked in....    Call them and make sure that they know that rates are down BIG since Wednesday of last week.....     

What happened to the market that gave us over 400 points earlier last week.....     IT...     IS GONE...    

At least for the foreseeable future.....    With as much uncertainty in the global economy and inflation and deflation in real estate prices.....     The American consumer for the most part is stuck with both hands in their pockets when it comes time to make new purchases.   

The old saying comes to mind...    "When America catches a cold...   The whole world sneezes..."     I'd hate to have the update the saying to include...   "When America catches pneumonia, the whole world catches a cold..."

 

As always...    Email me to get a FREE COPY of MY ULTIMATE FIRST TIME BUYING GUIDES!!!     

 

 

 

 

 

What are the chances that we would wake up today to hear that the Federal Reserve and JP Morgan Chase Bank needed to loan money to Bear Stearns to help them stay afloat....   I thought Bear Stearns had DEEP DEEP POCKETS..      I guess not that deep...       HOLY COW!!!   

On Wednesday, the CEO of Bear Stearns was on the early morning show Squawk Box on CNBC...        The hosts asked pointed questions and repeatedly the CEO answered that they had a strong balance sheet, and that they were in good shape financially...   48 hours later Bear Stearns was using the emergency lifeline to call the Fed and set up company saving loan for billions....

After the announcement this morning, Jim Cramer also of CNBC said that it was possible that things in a business like Bear Stearns could change in a matter of hours or days, and that the CEO could have been telling the truth at the time of the interview...

This news of the Prop Up of Bear Stearns by the Fed and JP Morgan Chase caused stocks to lose favor quite rapidly...     Down 300 pts at one point the stock market clawed back to only down 100 pts before George Bush spoke at the Economic Club of America....      

At some point in his speech he noted that he was...   " An optimistic type of fella" ....    which made me think of the campaign slogan of Herbert Hoover in 1928..   "A chicken for every pot"...      

The last time that I checked, the economy didn't get points or a boost from motivational speeches from politicians that are completely out of touch with the reality of the current situation.      Clearly if Ben Bernanke and his team of Fed Governors don't know what is coming down the pike at us in economic terms....   How in the world can George Bush be so blindly optimistic.....   

THE GOOD NEWS IS>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>     INTEREST RATES ARE HEADED DOWN!!!!

 

LET'S SELL SOME HOUSES!!!

 

Overnight and after hours Carlyle Capital announced that they would be turning over the remaining assets of the company to its lenders.     Who is Carlyle Capital you might ask...      A HUGE multi national holding company that operates and owns some of the most prominent names in the business.     Like Dunkin Brands and the Nielsen Ratings.....     This is bad news for the economy...   and for coffee drinkers everywhere....  let alone all of the TV watchers out there in TV land....    

Just Kidding...   I can't imagine Carlyle's lenders getting into the coffee and doughnut biz or TV rating business anytime soon.....      A big and supposedly solid company like Carlyle failing really highlights that we still don't know just how big the iceberg is... 

Asia and Europe are down BIG...     1.5 to 3% overnight...        Interest Rates are plummeting!!    

30 Year Fixed Rates will be back under 6% with 0 pts.

15 Year Fixed Rates will be close to 5.5% with 0 pts.

 

If you can't get rates like these for your clients in PA, DE, MD, NJ, or VA don't hesitate to give me a call.   

(215) 870-3060

 

 

And as always...              My Ultimate First Time Buying Guide and My Ultimate First Time Settlement Table Guide are Free to good realtors.       Email me today for your copies...      ChrisCat2008@yahoo.com

This information came to me from one of my Best Sources!!    Thanks JMH!!    I wanted to share.      I plan to send it to my entire past and current client database as a marketing piece.    I think my clients will want to know exactly when they will get their check from Uncle Sam for either $600 to about several thousand dollars depending on how many children they have and why.   Each child is worth $300 in rebate check.  Below is a schedule for the issuance of the Tax Relief Checks this summer.

The check is in the mail Week Last 2 digits of your SSN Receive your check by week of 1 00 - 09 July 23 2 10 - 19 July 30 3 20 - 29 August 6 4 30 - 39 August 13 5 40 - 49 August 20 6 50 - 59 August 27 7 60 - 69 Sept. 3 8 70 - 79 Sept. 10 9 80 - 89 Sept. 17 10 90 - 99 Sept. 24 For married taxpayers who filed a joint return, the first Social Security Number on the return determines the mailing date. Source: Internal Revenue Service

If you made less than $75,000 in 2007, you get $600. A couple earning less than $150,000 gets $1,200 back, plus an additional $300 per child. If you made at least $3,000 but paid no taxes, you still get $300. But here's where it gets tricky. The rebate is technically an advance credit for your 2008 taxes, leading some to believe the extra money will come out of your refund for next year. It's a one-time stimulus to the economy, and it won't affect anything that anybody has for next year. The IRS gave Call 4 Action the same assurance. Plus, it said you can get another $300 next year on top of the rebate check if you have a child in 2008. And unlike years past, it won't make you pay taxes on that rebate money. But many of you who are elderly or low-income, living off Social Security or veterans benefits, could miss out altogether. To get the rebate check, you must file a tax form for 2007, even if youare not required to do so. Otherwise, you are passing up what is essentially free money.

I HOPE THIS INFORMATION CLEARS UP THE MURKY PICTURE OF WHEN ALL OF THIS STIMULUS WILL START TO 

TRICKLE DOWN TO THE LITTLE GUYS!!!     Basically late summer.....

AFTER A GREAT WEEKEND>>>>>>        I wonder what this week could bring.   Good things I am sure!!!!    

There has been talk this morning on Squawk Box about getting the Fed involved as a buyer of Mortgage Agency 

Products.....   Mortgage Backed Securites...

THIS WOULD BE GREAT AND BRING SOME CERTAINTY TO AN UNCERTAIN SITUATION!!!!     THE CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE MARKET.

All the smart people on TV these days seem to realize at least one thing.....     If the average American has to make their way on

what they have right now as a mortgage...     It could be a tough road.      

A good percentage of America needs/wants to refinance into a lower FIXED interest rate and hunker down in the house that they like for the long haul..... or the short haul, whatever their 

choice might be.      Without a good bit of these wanne be refinancers getting their refinances accomplished....... the average american consumer's purse strings will continue to be constrained 

for months and years to come.    This means that whatever state the economy is in right now....   a pre Recession, or a Recession 

depending on who you talk to...    this state would be extended, and that we might be in this type of situation for a while.    

I VOTE FOR LOWER INTEREST RATES FOR THE REST OF 2008!!!!     NOW WHERE ARE THOSE SUPER DELEGATES AT WHEN I NEED THEM??

WHO'S WITH ME???

I don't think anybody has a good idea of what lies dead ahead of us when it comes to the economy.     Not Ben Bernanke....   not anyone.     Just when most realtors and mortgage professionals think interest rates should be moving down and helping out with the floundering real estate market....     They move up, and make things even more difficult!!

With Oil topping $105 for the first time in history it's tough to say that inflation isn't part of our everyday life.  

People don't have to pay $5 a gallon of gas, or $10 for a sandwich and a drink to know that prices have moved up on almost everything except HD TV's.....      As more consumers find more ways to spend less money on things like luxury items, and on big dinners out on the town because of high prices, and their shrinking home equity...     The economy will continue to stay in the rut that it is in, and dig a deeper rut.     

Inflation and Employment are two of the most powerful forces on the US economy.     Not only are more people losing their job since March 2003, but the ones that do have paychecks are seeing their dollars by less and less everyday.

Even when it comes to home prices falling...      A deinflationary contributor....     One realizes that unlike other items that are affected by inflation...      Homeowners are likely to spend less of their hard earned bucks on everyday purchases simply because they are aware that there house is worth between $10,000 and $100,000 or more less than it was just a year ago.    This instant awareness of the fact that the average homeowner's piggybank has cracked can be quite crippling and paralyzing when it comes to making new and large purchases.   Most consumers will put off anything but the most necessary of purchases until things have settled down in their personal financial situation.

This loss of home equity is different than losing money in the stock market....     and it affects how people live their lives and spend their money.     It makes people think that real estate is not a good investment...   Even though we all know that a good piece of real estate is ALWAYS a good investment.....     Especially if you are looking to buy and hold for more than 5 years!!

 

In case you just climbed out from beneath your rock....     Rates are skyrocketing in the mortgage market.   

The mortgage market took a couple of punches off the snout yesterday.     A good ONE   TWO jab and upper cut which hurt new home purchasers about a quarter in interest rate.

A large bank, Thornburg has gotten themselves into HOT WATER.   The ugly word margin call has entered Thornburg's picture it seems.    

This weakness in what was a good bank has helped fuel a dramatic sell of mortgage rates of all terms.   The reasoning is that if a bank like Thornburg can make a miscalculation like this to jeopardize their entire existence, are there other banks that have made the same mistake and just haven't paid the price for it yet.    In December all the Big Financials on Wall Street bellied up to the bar and wrote down their asset values based on their losses in the subprime arena.   They said that they were done with the writedowns associated with the Mortgage Meltdown, and now they are lining back up again to announce some additional writedowns...     Clearly we are not at the Bottom of the Subprime Fallout stage yet.      

It didn't help that on Wednesday the ISM Manufacturing Index popped up to 49 and change.. .  (50 is treading water...     Anything below 50 shows a manufacturing contraction, anything above 50 shows growth.)    January had been 44 or so....     A big surprise to the Treasury market and the Mortgage backed securities.

Right now 30 year fixed rate mortgage are back in the 6.5% and 0 pts range.      A HUGE difference from the Jan 22 and 23 low where 5.5% and 0 pts was very much in the mix.    The mortgage rates have risen almost a whole point in just 6 weeks.   

Somewhere somehow the real estate industry needs a break to get things back on track.     LOW RATES can or could be that break....      More things need to happen, but with LOW RATES a recovery is not only possible, but probable.    It's important to give people that want to refinance their high subprime or ARM mortgages a chance so that they do not lose their homes!!

Does anyone else wonder how interest rates could be at 6.5% when things like the real estate market and the economy are struggling so mightily??         LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK!!!