Here in Vancouver WA (just next to Portland) it is big news when the Weather Service expects a big snow storm to come through the area.  We don't have snow on the ground often enough, and for long enough, for the local road crews to budget adequately for the rare large snow storm. 

When I know a big storm is on its way I like to make certain we have a week's worth of supplies on and be ready to stay real close to home for a few days.  This time around I felt we we ready BUT, saw no need to start the "hunkered-down" phase just yet -- if we did I know the onset of the dreaded Cabin Fever would happen sooner!  So, even though there was a slight drizzle outside (and most home buyers were getting ready for the storm) I felt I better get a bike ride in.

Thankfully the signed bicyle routes in Vancouver and parts of Clark County have improved greatly over the years.  When I lived in Everett many years ago while working for GTE, Everett and Snohomish County had been very progressive with Bicycle lane and separate path deployments, and was at that time many years ahead of Southwest Washington in this regard.  I think we've caught up quite a bit now.

The Destination this time was the Renaissance Trail on the Columbia River Waterfront.  Okay, so this trail is several miles long, and it takes me several miles just to get there -- this turned out to be a two hour ride!  Some of the sights included:

First Stop at the Western part of the Trail we find: The Angry I-5 Bridge over the Columbia River -- could it be upset that its days are numbered?

A couple of miles up the trail I stopped at the boat basin used by the Christensen Luxury Motor-Yacht  (they make these awsome yachts here in Vancouver WA) company.  Today the Aghassi ccan be seen, awaiting a new owner perhaps?

Another mile up the trail and the turning point for my ride is the tip of the break-water at Tidewater Cove.  This can be a great place to see Mt. Hood or watch the planes landing at PDX across the Columbia River.  Today, it was too blustery to linger...

Well, I had better pedal back home and get back to work.  Hope you enjoyed this winter ride! /p>

Purchase Your Clark County Home with No Cash Down Financing, Backed by the US Government

An always popular reason for people wanting to move to Clark County has been the opportunity to either live in one of the several fine small towns near Vancouver or, own a home on acreage in the country, and perhaps slow down just a little bit.  A lesser known fact that there still are livliehoods taking place with work and jobs available in the rural parts of the County.  To make purchasing a home in a rural town or, a rural property more feasible, the US government as a part of the mission of the Department of Agriculture (USDA) offers the USDA Rural Development Single Family Guaranteed Loan Program.  

Background: America's Rural areas have a long history of quality programs available from the US Government to promote and improve the quality of life and affordability to live in a rural area.  The Rural Electirification Administration (now the Rural Utilities Service - RUS) and Rural Housing Administration (RHA) were spawned from the New Deal programs from the Great Depression and Dust Bowl days, and provided financial assistance to rural areas for housing and to deploy electrical distribution and telephone infrastructure to rural communities.  To be sure, a big driving force behind these programs is to better ensure the health of US Agricultural areas and the primary food supplies for our nation.  The government department handling these programs is appropriately enough, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).  The USDA Rural Development Home Loan has been around about the same length of time, and has evolved over time to its current modern form.

How Does the USDA Home Loan Work in Clark County?

Here are some of the Key Financial Elements of the USDA Home Loan:

• Home must be in an eligible area.
• Zero Cash required for the Down Payment.  Even some or all of the Buyer's Closing Costs may be financed if eligible.
• Low to Middle-Income Households are generally eligible - If the Household Income is too high, you may be ineligible.
• 30 Year Fixed Term Loans at Today's Low Interest Rates -- these are fully amortized loans with no gimmicks.
• Qualifying rations are 29% for Housing and 41% for total debt.
• Guarantee Fee applies, and may be rolled into the loan.
• Flexible Credit Guidelines, where non-traditional histories may be accepted.
• Eligible properties include: Existing Homes, New Construction, New Manufactured Homes, Modular Homes, and eligible Condos!
• Eligible Repairs may be included in the loan as well!
• Applicants apply with an approved lender of their choice (we know several good approved lenders).

Where in Clark County Can We Purhase Using the USDA Home Loan?

With Clark County being a part of the Greater Portland / Vancouver metro area, the USDA has provided a map of the Ineligible southern part of the County which means, the remaining northern part of the County is eligible.  Here is the map courtesy of the USDA (click on the map for a larger version):

From this map we know these areas should qualify: 

All of Amboy, La Center and Yacolt;
The Clark County Portion of the Woodland zip code;
Ridgefield north of 179th Street;
Battle Ground except for the portion south of Meadow Glade and west of SR-503:
most of Brush Prairie and Hockinson;
Camas and Washougal north of Blair Road and the Washougal River Road.

Are There Any Other Important Elements to This Loan Program?

Here are a few more items to check off before looking into this loan or at a particular property:

• Must be Owner Occupied as the Primary Residence;
• 30 year fixed rate of interest with no down-payment required (repeat from above);
• Home must be structurally sound and in reasonably good repair.
• Home must not be used to produce Income, nor can there be Income Producing Buildings or other Accessories that produce Income on the property;
• Probably won't be a Mansion or Castle.

Thus, this loan cannot be used for a Rental Property or, be a major fixer.  Otherwise, a relatively high percentage of the rural Clark County homes should qualify.

If you have an interest in this type of loan and home purchase please give me a call (John) at 360-258-2494 or Kathryn at 360-258-2363.

Foreclosure and Short Sale Transactions Challenged the Real Estate Recovery in Vancouver for 2011

In late 2010 many real estate economists expected most areas to experience the start of the Third and largest wave of Foreclosures.  We have gathered the home sales dataˡ from the Vancouver MLS for the year 2011, and summarized it in a form that will let us illustrate the depth of this challenge to our local economy.

Vancouver WA Housing Inventory -- Composition and Volume Level

The level of homes listed at any one time is often referred to as the Current Housing Inventory available for sale.  A level considered "Normal" is about 6 months of supply (calculated by dividing the Active Listings by the Sold listings for that month).  In Clark County we started January 2011 with 11.7 months of supply (also known as a Buyers Market with abundant inventory relative to the number of home buyers); and ended the year with a 6.5 month level -- which is a substantial drop off during the year.  When we remove the inventory of listings categorized as "New" the level is more like 4.8 months (nearing the range of a Sellers Market)!

Even though the greatly reduced level of housing for sale appears to be a Sellers Market, the continued falling of prices is 2011 shows how powerful the Distressed property segment has been.

Distressed Property Sales Make Up Over Half of the 2011 Vancouver WA Home Sales

In 2009 the Vancouver MLS was updated to allow the tracking of Foreclosures and Short Sales, which we can report on here.  Another Distressed Property element are the homes purchased at the Foreclosure Auction by Flippers.  Many but not all of the Flipped homes (Flips) were listed and sold; as some were pre-sold and won't be tabulated here.  The Flip segment is also harder to gather all the data within RMLS thus, we'll only have an estimate for the Flips that were listed and sold.

The total Vancouver home sales increased by 202 units (6.4% -- 3,335 in 2011 vs. 3,122 in 2010).  However, the Distressed Property segment came in at 1,720 (includes the estimate for Flips), a whopping 51.6% of total sales.  This percentage compares to 50.2% County wide.

From our review of the homes sold through the Vancouver MLS for the total year 2011, we believe that prediction of the Third and Largest wave of Foreclosures came true.  It is also a fact that a good number of Short Sales are still awaiting their offers to be approved by the bank from the Second Wave, and even the First wave!

Prices and Interest Rates Head Down While Affordability Hits an All Time High

The early part of 2011 saw home loan interest rates in the mid-4% range, and even hitting 5% for a moment; until they turned and fell to new historic lows just under 4%.  Combining the low lending rate with the falling prices, the Housing Affordability Index as reported by the Washington Center for Real Estate Research shows Vancouver and Clark County's housing as one of the most affordable areas in Washington's I-5 corridor!

Searching for Equilibrium and the New Normal

With any Recession, and more so in a major housing led Great Recession, the real estate market seeks out a new equilibrium -- which often seems like that mythical place (will we ever get there?) where the supply of houses will match the demand for them; with prices back on a slow and steady upward path.

For 2011 the transaction activity, as evidenced by this chart, shows a much more typical rise and fall of activity throughout the year.  We view this as some sense of purchase normalcy returning as buyers are being motivated to purchase based on their basic needs, and not by at artificial federal incentive program. (more charts and statistics available by clicking on the chart).

During the year, only two months saw the Median Days on Market go slightly above 100 days; and in the summer the median came close to 50 days.  Little by little, many of the key indicators of market health are showing improvement.

What's in store for 2012?  We'll be exploring that in a future installment -- Stay Tuned!
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Note 1: The type of Residential Homes reviewed are Single-Family Detached; Attached (Townhome-style); Condos and PUD.  Excluded are In-Park; Floating and other types.

This week at the Vancouver Business Presenters Club meeting we all became better acquainted with Gary S.  As a first time visitor to the Club we gave him an "Icebreaker" topic, and asked what brought him to Vancouver and something he was passionate about.

As a retired Engineer from Boenig's Everett WA Facility (where they make 747's, 767's and 777's) he had led many presentations but wanted to try out our local club to refresh his skills.  Thus, he confidently gave his story that about 5 years before retiring while still living in Bothell, he had purchased an older El Camino automobile as a restoration project.  While looking for replacement parts one of his associates advised him to avoid the plastic after-market body parts as they would cheapen the restoration, and just wouldn't last.  That person also recommened he visit All American Classics auto parts yard, in northeast Vancouver WA on NE 4th Plain Road.  

Gary took his associate's advice, and he and his wife came to Vancouver and found many fine replacement parts for his auto restoration.  When the trip was over both he and his wife were pleasantly surprised by the Vancouver environment and how friendly the people were.

Fast forward a few more years and closer to retirement, Gary and his wife made several trips to many of the more well-known retirement states in the West, such as Arizona and Nevada; as well as other parts of Washington such as Spokane, and those places weren't clicking with them.  Then they remembered how friendly the people were that they met in Vancouver on their previous visit so, they made a return visit to do a more thorough investigation to see if this would be a good landing place.  They found the climate to be pleasant and similar to the Puget Sound area (a little bit Warmer; Spring comes a week or two sooner; and Autumn a week or two later; AND with at least 7 more Cloud-Free days than Seattle! -- editors embellishment).  They also found the people they met to be just as friendly as before.

On a second scouting visit they viewed a few homes, and found one that just came on the market that also had a shop and garage space for the El Camino -- that sealed the deal!  In fact, they liked their new home so much that Gary spent the last 2 months commuting to the Everett plant until he retired from Boeing! 

As  Realtors® working for REMAX Vancouver WA, we've seen variations on this story many times, such as the business person that has traveled to Vancouver and other cities, and found this to be a great community to retire in; or, it may be grandparents wanting to move closer to their children and grandchildren and have found that Washington does not have a state or local income tax (no tax on retirement income or on earned income), along with lower property prices and taxes when compared to nearby Portland Oregon.

If you or someone you know is looking for one of the best kept secret retirement locations in the USA, give us a call or check on homes for sale in Vancouver WA to see what this community has to offer! 

For Senior 55+ Communities, the golf course community of Fairway Village is very popular.

Home Sales Do Well in Clark County WA for December 2011

With the year 2011 coming to a close, Home Sales in Vancouver WA and Clark County surged ahead beating out November's numbers and the prior year's results, with Closed Volume moving up to 382 units.  However, the 3-month rolling average sales price dropped to another low as very few higher-end homes saw sales action.  Pending Sales were off slightly as well - at 360 units (402 the month before).  With the 4th Quarter sales volume coming in stronger that last year, we clearly beat last years sales level by 136 units: 4,847 sold in 2011 vs. 4,711 sold in 2010.

Currently, the Affordability Index for real estate and Homes in Vancouver WA is at a year high for this generation; and with continued low interest rates and lower price levels, this index has improved even more!  Thus, our near-term to medium-term outlook for home buyers is Very Positive in 2012.

The information charted below is based on home sales entered into the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), and exclude sales of mobile homes.

The Chart Below (prepared by John Slocum, our resident statistician) shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month rolling average number of sales, and the 12 month rolling average.  This simple "smoothing" of the data better helps illiustrate the short-term and longer term trends in the Clark Conuty homes / real estate market.

The next chart below shows the Average home sales price trends (3 month and 12 month) for the same time period.  As you can see, with the extended higher level of purchasing activity we are clearly seeing support for home sales prices, with the outlook as "Firming up."

Comparing the 3-month moving average for sales price; we have $208,197 for December 2011 vs. $228,461; a net decrease of $20,264 or -8.9%.  The increased level of Distressed properties on the market in 2011 were clearly a strong driver causing the lower prices; combined with the noticeably few luxury home sales (one luxury home sale can move the average up by several thousands of dollars in any particular month).

Finally, the Level of Available Resale Inventory is an important indicator of market health; and we show 5.5 months Clark County-wide; and 4.8 months for the sum of Vancouver zip codes -- a number that is substantially lower than last year.

Charts:  For the enthusiasts that like to examine charts, we have the sales results for the Resold Inventory (excludes new homes) by Community that you may find helpful:

Clark County WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Battle Ground WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Camas WA Home Sales Results and Charts
La Center WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Ridgefield WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Vancouver WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Washougal WA Home Sales Results and Charts

Please let us know if you have any specific questions or comments!

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

One of the "Presents" the real estate downturn has given us in Vancouver Washington and Clark County, is that we now have Home Affordability at a very high level.  In fact, the data provided by the Washington State University's Washington Center for Real Estate Research (WCRER) is showing we are at a High not seen in at least two decades!

The Quarterly Report prepared prepared by WCRER (Third Quarter 2011 Report can be seen --> Here) is an accumulation of data by County within Washington State, allowing us here in Clark County to see how our real estate market has tracked over time; and to see how we compare to other Counties and the State Average.  Since the public report is only in tabular form for any given quarter, we thought it would be fun to prepare a graph that would visually show over time just how amazing the current position is.  The result is the chart below that starts with the Second Quarter in 1994 through the Third Quarter of 2011:

Reading the Chart: The Housing Affordability Index (HAI) measures the ability of the Median Household Income (as currently reported by the US Census Bureau) for Clark County to purchase a Median Priced Clark County Home.  The home purchase will be made with a 20% down-payment at the current rate of interest.  A benchmark number of 100 means that the Median Household Income equally matches the requirement to purchase a Median Priced home.  Numbers above 100 mean improved Affordability; while numbers below 100 indicate decreased Affordability.

As we can see the most recent peak in the HAI was at the time of the previous housing recession in the early 2000's.  Once that recovery turned to Boom, and then on to Bubble, the HAI dropped to it's lowest level.  Of note, even at the peak of the Bubble, the HAI for Clark County was just under the 100 benchmark level.

For the current heights of the HAI, we know that soft home prices and falling home loan rates have weighed in significantly.  On the Household Income measure, apparently Clark County on whole, has not had enough of a drop in income to keep the HAI from rising up.

Our word to Wise Home Buyers: we do not expect Clark County and Vancouver WA Homes and Houses to be any more affordable than they are right now!  We've already started seeing home prices firm up, and no one expects home loan interest rates to stay below 4%.  Clark County is also more affordable than most other metro areas in Washington; and we are seeing inbound moves from the Seattle area, for example, as they take advantage of such a move!

We'd love to hear your questions or comments on this topic!

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The above information was assembled from data provided by the WSU Washington Center for Real Estate Research, and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed.  The chart was created by John Slocum, Broker with REMAX Vancouver WA using this data.

Home Sales in Clark County Show Seasonal Slowing for November 2011

With the arrival of the cooler weather, Home Sales for Vancouver WA and Clark County have shown the typical seasonal slowing, with Closed Volume slipping to 338 units, and the 3-month rolling average sales price now below the 12-month rolling average. However, Pending Sales were again very strong - at 426 units. With the strength of the Pending Sales, combined with a high level of home refinancing activity occurring (to be sure, the-now-sub-4% home loan rates are causing a Refi Boom!), we are clearly on track to beat last years sales levels.

Currently, the Affordability Index for real estate and Homes in Vancouver WA is at a 25+ year high (we'll report separately on that soon)!  Thus, our near-term to medium-term outlook for home buyers is Very Positive.

The information charted below is based on home sales entered into the Vancouver MLS system (RMLS), and exclude sales of mobile homes.

For the first 11 months of 2011 we show 4,447 closed sales; compared to 4,359 for the same period in 2010.  If this trend continues for the last month of 2011 (and it should), we are confident 2011 will post a higher sales volume compared to the total real estate sales in 2011.

The Chart Below (prepared by John Slocum, our resident statistician) shows the purchase activity since 2009; charting the 3 month rolling average number of sales, and the 12 month rolling average.  This simple "smoothing" of the data better helps illiustrate the short-term and longer term trends in the Clark Conuty homes / real estate market.

The next chart below shows the Average home sales price trends (3 month and 12 month) for the same time period.  As you can see, with the extended higher level of purchasing activity we are clearly seeing support for home sales prices, with the outlook as "Firming up."

Finally, the Level of Available Inventory is an important indicator of market health.  When we remove the statistical "noise" of the "New" homes listing in the MLS, we find a more meaningful inventory estimate.  The result is our best approximation of a Resold Home Inventory calculation of 5.6 months Clark County-wide (4.9 months for the sum of Vancouver zip codes) -- a number that is substantially lower than last year, and another indication that home prices should remain firm with a similar level of demand.  In contrast, the RMLS is using a a number drawing from both the Resale and "New" home segments, and showing a total Inventory of 6.8 months.  Clearly, removing the New Homes provides a better picture of move-in ready homes on the market.

Charts:  For the enthusiasts that like to examine charts, we have the sales results for the Resold Inventory (excludes new homes) by Community that you may find helpful:

Clark County WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Battle Ground WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Camas WA Home Sales Results and Charts
La Center WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Ridgefield WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Vancouver WA Home Sales Results and Charts
Washougal WA Home Sales Results and Charts

Please let us know if you have any specific questions or comments!

Disclaimer: as with any real estate statistics, we do our best to provide the best representation at the time the data was acquired.  We deem the data and reports reliable but not guaranteed.

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