2008 has had more ups and downs than a Roller Coaster! I admit with the economic conditions we are going through there is NO WAY to make any rational predictions about what may be coming. Just forget it! This is more like the good guy, bad guy routine but with INFLATION then DEFLATION.
The problem is we are now DEFLATING like a hot air baloon with the heat turned off and the CRASH is going to be measured by how HIGH we went with INFLATION before the gas ran out.
O.K., so all my former predictions concerning increasing prices can now be allocated to the bit bucket of history. We are now navigating uncharted waters. Waive if you should float on by!
Prices are generally going lower. There is a baseline of resistance measured by public activity whenever someone really lowers their price to ridiculous levels. Some foreclosure banks are now doing this. When they take a $420K home and cut the price to $299K what this does is bring out the bottom feeders in force. Normally this means a bidding war and then somewhere when the dust settles a home that sells for what its real market value is.
I think NOW is a great time to be buying. INTEREST RATES are falling, home prices have fallen, there are just a lot of great buys when measured by 2005 & 2006 prices.
I don't know if I will be correct on us being at the bottom, but for DFW, Dallas, Fort Worth, Collin County, Denton and this entire Metroplex area WE NEVER HAD A BOOM and so we are priced where other parts of the country are adjusting to. THEY have room to decline and HAVE declined, but we are now at a price point where builders are going to have to go to the sidelines, especially with building SPECS because they simply can't make a dime's profit. If that ain't a bottom, then what in tar-nation is?
So where is the market going???? Well if new homes are taken out of the equasion, then we have a finite supply and a growing population and according to supply and demand this would cause prices to rise.
I think we are at the bottom. If we hit a depression then all bets are off. If we think recover, then we are admitting an improvement is around the corner. If 'recovery' is the prognosis, then the market stabilizes and builds making NOW a great great time to get the home of your dreams! :)
Again, the opinions are my own....................
This is beyond belief. This is cronyism and corruption at it's worst and is flat wrong at best. If SAR does not voluntarily surrender their possession of the URL they essentially Hijacked from fellow Realtor Marc Rasmussen than I feel NAR or the Florida Association of Realtors needs to step in for the good of their collective reputations.
Please refer to these 2 BLOGS to catch up on this theft of individual achievement by the Sarasota Association of Realtors and the entrenched interests who are now benefiting from literally stealing the achievements of a fellow Sarasota Realtor. Sharp language? How would you like to be Marc. Explain to me how this man can ever feel that he is living in the land of opportunity after what has happened to his business through no fault of his own.
The moral question is this, is the Realtor association arrayed for the good of the public and all its members or the good of the association big wigs and their own private business interests? That is the legal and moral question that ALL Realtors should be outraged over. Here is a clear case of a Realtor RAISING the standard for on-line website excellence and who has built a brand through thousands of hours of toil and expense only to have his work harvested out from underneath him by the association he is a member of? Yes, it is as crazy as it sounds, but unfortunately this is what is going on.
The URL that Marc Rasmussen created and worked like the devil to perfect through tens of thousands of dollars of personal expense is now in the possession of SAR through a very questionable ICANN ruling that should have never happened I the first place! And they HAVE already employed this top ranking Google URL to their own use by redirecting it to their website, sarasotarealtors.com, hence stealing the inbound weight of the leads this URL will bring to them without EVER HAVING TO DEVELOP this advantage using a dime of SAR MONEY. I find this an AFFRONT to civil behavior in general and completely unacceptable coming from an association of realtors.
I vote for Marc Rasmussen and I am appalled about the conduct taken by SAR
The more I read about this issue SICKER and angrier I get.
The "Bail Out" will happen, the markets will recover! The drama of it all will pass! I am at least 90% sure of this!
Personally I think the banks need us more than we need them. In context you need to look back throughout history, ours, theirs, mankind's! People existed and thrived way before there was even MONEY. Believe it or not we can change from the Fed Central Bank model and prosper! We have had several iterations of what money is, from the constitutional standard of Gold and Silver to a Credit Standard based upon confidence and the lending of credit as opposed to tangible money.
Presidential candidate Ron Paul has repeatedly warned us about the folly of the Federal Reserve and paper money and from what I can tell this man appears to be telling us the truth, but are we listening??Regardless of all the political persuasions and talk there remains some underlying economical problems and these problems appear to have a global reach to them. The U.S. is not the only country taking steps to add liquidity to banks. So hang on as we work through a global recession.
Sooner or later every up has a down and visa versa and the markets reflect this via the cycles they are constantly going through. Again, regardless of politices I believe in people, which is the real value we have in each other so I know we can get through any crisis.
I am saddened by the increased losses in the employment sector during 2008 and the losses everyday people are experiencing due to the number of financial institution collapses on Wall Street and especially those happening to people who are but years away from retirement. This is the greatest tragedy. Who is going to bail them out? To this extent, the current state of affairs become more than just a theatrical affair and business as usual. There are real people getting hurt.
The way I see it the "credit" based monetary system took a long time to get it through the temple of power in Washington D.C., after all it essentially side tracked our constitution once it trumped our hard currency system which could never be controlled by a central bank. Gold is controlled by the people who possess it as opposed to credit, which is always privately controlled. Credit is made to look like money, but is not money. Wilson said it has the appearance of money and would be elastic, or something like that. Whether you agree or not as to the type of monetary system we have, we still have to deal with the reality we find our selves in and hopefully grow wiser so that mischiefs related to credit can be better regulated in the future.
Credit allows banks to lend, and sometimes recklessly (as we have just witnessed over the past 2 years with the bursting of the Real Estate Bubble and the credit meltdown) because in the final analysis credit is intangible, so theoretically there is an unlimited supply limited only by the public's willingness to borrow it at interest. It does not take a rocket scientist to realize how a system like this can be abused by politician and CEO alike and I think the evidence of such abuses are all around us.
So what to expect? That is the $64,000 question. The emergency powers needed to pass the bailout is already possessed by the Secretary of the Treasury and codified into law at 12USC95b so really the congress does not have to approve legislation to get the bail out approved via the emergency powers. You will have to read all the legislative history all the way back to the organic banking emergency of March 9, 1933 to understand the powers that were vested in the Secretary of the Treasury and the office of the President. Whether you agree with these powers or not, these special powers do in fact exisit.
One last thought and getting back to reality, if you are a HOME buyer getting in the game now is like buying depressed stocks. If you wait until better times PLEASE don't expect to get the deals that are out there today in the housing market. Like the gathering storm clouds, the storm will pass and the sun will be shinning again! If you are a SELLER and you have location working for you and have done your homework getting your house ready for this very competitive market you actually stand a very good chance that you will get your home sold.
I am hopeful that the next president will remember that there are actually real people living in the U.S.A who need a break for a change and that we would really appreciate it if the NEW powers to be in Washington could spend just a little more time trying to make the U.S.A a better place to live for the people who DON'T live on Wall Street.
When the man on Main Street is feeling good and doing good.......well them are good times for all!
I know this sounds weak, but it's been awhile since I have posted. My minute use on my cell phone is now taking minutues from the other months and September is continuing to show stong market recovery in and around the Dallas area. I can't recall ever being this busy in August and September, good economy or bad.
Although AT&T might account for a shot in the arm, it is NOT the underlying reason why activity has picked up. I suspect as I have been saying, that the market actually bottomed in January 08 and has been improving ever since. Inflation is causing prices to increase and prices have been on the rise since May - June 08 when builders began saying UNCLE collectively. Many builders are reducing their incentives at the same time they are pricing their homes without the big mark up. For years this area has grown accustomed to builders raising their list prices to as high as 20% over what they would settle for, I am finding builders are now more interested in defining a fair price and sticking to it.
The way I figure, the longer you wait in an inflationary period of time, well the more you are going to wind up paying.
Maybe, just maybe the Kick Me Sign is off the back of the local Dallas market and that is just fine with me!
The Federal Reserve Board on Monday approved a final rule for home mortgage loans to better protect consumers and facilitate responsible lending. The rule prohibits unfair, abusive or deceptive home mortgage lending practices and restricts certain other mortgage practices. The final rule also establishes advertising standards and requires certain mortgage disclosures to be given to consumers earlier in the transaction.
The final rule, which amends Regulation Z (Truth in Lending) and was adopted under the Home Ownership and Equity Protection Act (HOEPA), largely follows a proposal released by the Board in December 2007, with enhancements that address ensuing public comments, consumer testing, and further analysis.
"The proposed final rules are intended to protect consumers from unfair or deceptive acts and practices in mortgage lending, while keeping credit available to qualified borrowers and supporting sustainable homeownership," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. "Importantly, the new rules will apply to all mortgage lenders, not just those supervised and examined by the Federal Reserve. Besides offering broader protection for consumers, a uniform set of rules will level the playing field for lenders and increase competition in the mortgage market, to the ultimate benefit of borrowers," the Chairman said.
The final rule adds four key protections for a newly defined category of "higher-priced mortgage loans" secured by a consumer's principal dwelling. For loans in this category, these protections will:
Prohibit a lender from making a loan without regard to borrowers' ability to repay the loan from income and assets other than the home's value. A lender complies, in part, by assessing repayment ability based on the highest scheduled payment in the first seven years of the loan. To show that a lender violated this prohibition, a borrower does not need to demonstrate that it is part of a "pattern or practice."
Require creditors to verify the income and assets they rely upon to determine repayment ability.
Ban any prepayment penalty if the payment can change in the initial four years. For other higher-priced loans, a prepayment penalty period cannot last for more than two years. This rule is substantially more restrictive than originally proposed.
Require creditors to establish escrow accounts for property taxes and homeowner's insurance for all first-lien mortgage loans.
"These changes have made for better rules that will go far in protecting consumers from unfair practices and restoring confidence in our mortgage system," said Governor Randall S. Kroszner.
In addition to the rules governing higher-priced loans, the rules adopt the following protections for loans secured by a consumer's principal dwelling, regardless of whether the loan is higher-priced:
Creditors and mortgage brokers are prohibited from coercing a real estate appraiser to misstate a home's value.
Companies that service mortgage loans are prohibited from engaging in certain practices, such as pyramiding late fees. In addition, servicers are required to credit consumers' loan payments as of the date of receipt and provide a payoff statement within a reasonable time of request.
Creditors must provide a good faith estimate of the loan costs, including a schedule of payments, within three days after a consumer applies for any mortgage loan secured by a consumer's principal dwelling, such as a home improvement loan or a loan to refinance an existing loan. Currently, early cost estimates are only required for home-purchase loans. Consumers cannot be charged any fee until after they receive the early disclosures, except a reasonable fee for obtaining the consumer's credit history.
For all mortgages, the rule also sets additional advertising standards. Advertising rules now require additional information about rates, monthly payments, and other loan features. The final rule bans seven deceptive or misleading advertising practices, including representing that a rate or payment is "fixed" when it can change.
The rule's definition of "higher-priced mortgage loans" will capture virtually all loans in the subprime market, but generally exclude loans in the prime market. To provide an index, the Federal Reserve Board will publish the "average prime offer rate," based on a survey currently published by Freddie Mac. A loan is higher-priced if it is a first-lien mortgage and has an annual percentage rate that is 1.5 percentage points or more above this index, or 3.5 percentage points if it is a subordinate-lien mortgage. This definition overcomes certain technical problems with the original proposal, but the expected market coverage is similar.
One element of the original proposal has been withdrawn. The Federal Reserve Board had proposed for public comment certain requirements pertaining to so-called "yield-spread premiums." During the intervening period, the Board engaged in consumer testing that cast significant doubt on the effectiveness of the proposed rule. As part of its ongoing review of closed-end loan rules under Regulation Z, however, the Board will consider alternative approaches.
In finalizing the rule, the Board carefully considered information obtained from testimony, public hearings, consumer testing, and over 4,500 comment letters submitted during the comment period. "Listening carefully to the commenters, collecting and analyzing data, and undertaking consumer testing, has led to more effective and improved final rules," Governor Kroszner said.
The new rules take effect on October 1, 2009. The single exception is the escrow requirement, which will be phased in during 2010 to allow lenders to establish new systems as needed.
In a related move, the Board is publishing for public comment a proposal to revise the definition of "higher-priced mortgage loan" under Regulation C (Home Mortgage Disclosure), which requires lenders to report price information for such loans, to conform to the definition the Board is adopting under Regulation Z.
It is too bad that FOX, CNN and other news stations don't clearly confine their riveting real estate news reporting to the specific geographical areas they are reporting about. Sure we know about the problems in the lending space, and how they have hurt a lot of people, especially in markets that where excessively over valued like Florida, California, Phoenix and scores of other locations.
The fact is there are actually good Real Estate Markets in the U.S. and Texas just happens to be one of them. Yes during the "pre-pop" days prices were going up here, but that was more a function of supply and demand. The Dallas market never saw the price speculation of a Florida for example, nor the bust that followed, but we did see prices level off, then decline by various percentages, depending upon location. Yes, there were also some foreclosures that were sold at fire sale prices, but as sure as the Sun rieses in the East, those firesales were very much the "exception." So if you base your next home purchase on a rumor about what someone paid on a foreclosure, you are going to be very disappointed when you realize the general market is going up in price and the longer you delay.....
What the national news media is actually doing to potential local homebuyers may very well wind up making you pay more for your next home. Yes, negative news may very well be keeping you from buying a house now, but it is also keeping you from capitalizing on the best home buying opportunity since the 1980's here in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex. Affordability is at an approximate 38 year high and from my vantage point the real bottom in the DFW housing market was actually around October 2007 to January of 2008. Since then prices are actually improving and interest rates have risen making affordability worsen.
So what to do? Stay at home and bite your nails listing to network pros tell you the sky is falling or do you do what great profiteers have done for millenniums, take the opposite approach!
The reality is that home prices need to rise about 25% just to correct back to where they should be if you take into consideration historical trends and inflation. Yes, you are still in a very strong buyer's market, however time is working against you should you put off your DFW home buying plans. As the cost of new homes continue to rise (and they are going up) to adjust for inflated material, labor and energy costs; so too will existing home prices begin to follow that trend. Move up home buyers at some point will simply refuse to give away their homes when the price for new construction continues to increase. Hence, the pressure on existing home prices go higher will increase over time.
So are existing home prices depressed realative to new home prices. Currently YES! And this is what makes buying now so attractive. However that trend is about to change locally due to a number of positive factors, population growth and job creation. Here is an excellent article concerning the Texas Real Estate Market as of July 2008. Once the market changes and prices are higher, there will be no "time out" to go back and pay yesterday's prices.
Here is a link courtesy of Hexter Fair Title that shows many areas are down sharply with regards to the number of homes sold at the same time prices in many of these areas are actually rising. Again showing that waiting is the WRONG choice if you want to buy at a lower price.
Well, I have been talking about this for some time. The lower dollar is making a mess of oil prices throughout the world. Oil if you were not aware is priced in U.S.Dollars.
How do you think oil prices can come down? Make the U.S. Dollar more valuable compared to the Euro would be a major first Step, not to mention all the other "Major" currencies.
Now how do you make the dollar "worth more?" You raise interest rates.
Here are some interesting Articles on factors that are affecting and will continue to affect real estate sales and home buyer affordability.
It looks like for now, the best time to have purchased a new home has passed. How much will home prices rise? Well that depends on the dollar's value. However real month to month cost is going to rise one way or another due to interest rates.
In and effort to keep North Texas Home Buyers and Sellers in SYNC with up to date housing information it appears that for now housing prices have hit bottom and are starting to move higher. Home prices moved up in February, March and April reversing the steady decline since July of 2007. What is interesting is that the current affordability has improved noticeably compared to 2005 and even before. The chart below goes back to 2005.
The problem is that once the supply and demand imbalances normalize we will begin to see the real effect of inflation which will tend to cause prices to rise. This means waiting is more likely to become a financially problematic issue for families needing homes.
Retrofitting New Inventory Homes or Existing Homes can also be considered. I have found that www.foilbarrier.com provides the best Foil Radiant Barrier product solution in the DFW Metroplex. The work in the home below was performed by Foil Barrier. home Foil Barrier is operated by Joe Perry and he can be reached at 817-789-1057 or 214-762-3898.
Radiant Barrier Retrofit. Double layer added over insulation
GENERAL DISCUSSION
In the picture above foil radiant barriers have been installed over the attic insulation to prevent infrared radiation (IR) that is being retransmitted from the underside of the roof from striking the insulation that sits directly over the living space below.
One of the requirements for a radiant barrier to work is that it must have an "AIR GAP" in front of the foil that is facing the source of incoming IR. That is why the barrier is on top of the insulation in the home pictured above and not glued or spray painted on the underside of the roof decking. Placing the foil over the insulation prevents IR that is being retransmitted from the underside of the boiling hot roof decking from striking your attic insulation, thus helping the insulation over your living space stay cooler. I have been in countless homes and can tell you that the undersides of Texas roofs with or without a radiant barrier painted or glued to it becomes boiling hot during the summer months.
WHAT IS INFRARED RADIATION (IR)?
Infrared radiation is a frequency that has no temperature in and of itself until it strikes a surface where it then transmits heat energy into that surface. That is why space vehicles are "foil wrapped on the outside." In Deep Space the temperature is approximately -270 Celsius (-454 Fahrenheit) YET there is an exceptional amount of IR present. This would suggest applying the foil over your shingles would actually give you the most beneficial radiant barrier effect and that is to reflect incoming IR before it can strike a temperature absorbing surface like your dark gray tar based composition shingles on your roof.
That is why a big Texas TREE is your best radiant barrier!
Think about it! The tree prevents IR from the Sun from hitting your roof's shingles! If shingles stay cool your attic stays cool. Once a surface gets hot, it begins to re-transmit IR as well as conduct heat within the material itself. In the case of a typical Texas house, that means IR is re-radiated from the underside of your roof decking plywood sheets into your attic insulation - NOT A GOOD THING! In my opinion gluing a radiant barrier to the underside of your home's roof decking does little as the physically attached foil quickly adjusts via "direct heat conductance through a solid" to the temperature of the HOT roof and acts like a huge hot radiator surface.
I know one of the the technical properties of a true foil radiant barrier is extremely low emissivity which means the hot foil has a very low rate of IR retransmission. However the hot foil can and does quickly heat up the attic air to very uncomfortable attic temperatures reaching to 130 F or higher. The point here is that homes with radiant barriers glued or painted to the underside of roof decking can still have hot hot hot attics that help to compromise a homes energy efficiency not to mention soak your AC system and ducts in scorching heat.
LOW EMISSIVITY CAN STILL BE A HOT PROBLEM!
Even if a major characteristic of a radiant barrier foil is low emissivity, which means when the foil itself gets hot it has a very low rate of retransmitting infrared radiation towards your attic insulation, the foil can still become a very hot surface and when you multiple a hot radiant barrier by the large surface area that most roofs represent, you still have a very hot attic. Just touching a radiant barrier in the hot afternoon will confirm the fact that foil barriers can and do get scorching hot.
As a Realtor, I have closely looked at a number of radiant barrier installations by a variety of home builders and I can tell you that some of the hottest attics I have been in had radiant barriers glued to the underside of the roof decking. What this suggests is that if you are to rely on the low emissivity principles of a radiant barrier to help you out you must also plan to have adequate attic ventilation working in tandem with the radiant barriers. At best the 'underside' radiant barrier becomes a time delay device for heat build up in your attic and if proper ventilation is not established the end result will most likely not have much of an effect on your AC bills.
So if you are going to retrofit a home and can't improve the ventilation aspects of your attic so hot air can freely circulate to the peak of your attic and out ridge vents, turtle vents, etc, then you should be considering installing the radiant barrier over your attic insulation.
This leads me to conclude that the primary intended purpose of the radiant barrier is not due to it's low emissivity characteristics, but rather to primarily defeat incoming infrared radiation by reflecting it away from surfaces directly underneath the foil barrier, hence preventing that surface from getting hot in the first place means an external barrier application over and not under a surface.
If inside radiant barrier foil applications really work (low emissivity principal) or are the primary intended use of a radiant barrier foil then why are space vehicles not employing the same technology the housing industry seems to embrace? The last time I checked, space vehicles all have the foil radiant barrier on the outside.
There are lots of opinions out there, and you have read mine, but it seems more logical to shield your living space with a perforated radiant barrier foil directly on top of your attic insulation or over your roof's shingles if you are to realize optimal results from the use of radiant barrier technology. This way you preserve the required "air gap" needed for a radiant barrier to reject or reflect incoming IR Radiation before it strikes your insulation, or you can find a BIG TREE and place close to your house on the South West Side, but it will cost you much much more!
Good luck on getting city zoning approval for an external highly reflective radiant barrier over your roof shingles!
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
;)
;)
