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dan hartman mortgage: It's Been A Quiet Week For A Mortgage Loan. . . - Daily Rate Update for July 9th, 2010 - 07/09/10 11:52 AM
Wholesale inventories nominal; Investors seek to hedge positions going into busy week; Next week's preview; New Feature: The Rumor Mill - Rate Lock Report for Friday, July 9th, 2010
In spite of the relative lack of data this week, mortgage pricing has still been a little more volatile that might have been expected, but most of that was caused by the stock lever from several straight days of higher than usual stock market gains. More than anything else, those stock market gains were driven by bargain hunting. Next week is a different animal altogether though, as we'll review below.
Today, the … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Surge in Stocks Saps Mortgage Pricing and Reduced Unemployment Claims Support it - Daily Rate Update for July 8th, 2010 - 07/08/10 12:31 PM
Traders gobble up data suggesting worldwide growth may be stronger than expected this year; Unemployment claims fall more than expected; Mortgage rates at new lows - Rate Lock Report for Thursday, July 8th, 2010
Stocks got a nice bump yesterday as bargain-hunting traders swooped into financial sector companies, among others. After Tuesday's near-panic over a possible double-dip recession, stock prices presented a nice opportunity, enough to push the Dow Jones Industrial Average over 10,000 again. Unfortunately for mortgage pricing, much of the money needed for this came from sales of other assets, like mortgage-backed securities, causing pricing to worsen by as … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Credit Card Delinquencies Fall and Unemployment May Have Peaked - Double Who? - Daily Rate Update for July 7th, 2010 - 07/07/10 10:43 AM
Yesterday's market dominated by "double dip" recession fears; Today's data suggests things MAY not be that bad - Rate Lock Report for July 7th, 2010
If you're unhappy with the pricing improvements we received yesterday, please raise your hand. Anyone? I didn't think so. Would you like to know why it happened?
Yesterday, markets were gripped with panic over the possibility of a "double dip" recession, that is, a second, possibly worse, recession following the first. Needless to say, this is a pretty scary possibility, and one that the talking heads on CNBC apparently couldn't say enough yesterday. (I didn't actually … (1 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Services Growth Slows; Rates At All Time Lows - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for July 6, 2010 - 07/06/10 12:56 PM
Service Sector Growth Misses Expectations; Accounts for 80% of all US Jobs - Rate Lock Report for July 6, 2010
Today marks the start of a short, quiet week, from the perspective of economic data. We will receive exactly two pieces of interest-rate-influential data this week; one the Institute for Supply Management's Services Sector Index this morning, the second the weekly unemployment claims on Friday. For the rest of this week, I anticipate mortgage rates will be driven more by activity in stock markets.
The ISM Services Sector Index measures the pace of expansion or contraction in the services sector, which … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Private Employers Disappoint and 652,000 give up looking for work - Daily Rate Update for July 2nd, 2010 - 07/02/10 11:26 AM
Overall, 125,000 jobs lost; unemployment rate falls to 9.5% on discouraged workers; Only 83,000 private-sector jobs added - Rate Lock Report for Friday, July 2nd, 2010
As I predicted yesterday, the highlights of today's monthly jobs report were too few private-sector jobs added, and too many discouraged workers giving up. Results weren't drastically different than expected, though, so mortgage rates have opened the day slightly worse than they closed yesterday.
Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics brings us its Current Employment Statistics report, often referred to as the Non-Farms Payrolls report, a survey of 160,000 business and government entities that … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Mortgage Rates Set a New Record Low on Weak Economic Data - Daily Rate Update for July 1st, 2010 - 07/01/10 01:05 PM
First Time Homebuyer Closing Extension Almost Certain; 30-year Fixed Hits 4.58%; Unemployment Claims up - will Non-Farms Payrolls miss tomorrow? - Rate Lock Report for July 1, 2010
Happy July! I imagine many of your reading this are relieved that the deadline to close tax credit homes has passed; I hope you were successful in getting them all to the table; if not, congress finally got it together and passed an extension through both houses yesterday, so you will likely have until September 30th to close those.
New unemployment claims were unexpectedly higher today, at 472,000, further bringing into question economists … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: ADP Payrolls Report Paints Grim Picture, But Things In Europe Maybe Not So Bad - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 30, 2010 - 06/30/10 10:35 AM
European banks borrow only €132 billion compared to €210 billion that had been expected; Private employers add a paltry 13,000 jobs - Rate Lock Report for June 30, 2010
Yesterday, global equity markets dropped sharply on serious worries about liquidity in the European banking system. We learned this morning that the situation there isn't quite as bad as feared, as banks that had been expected to borrow as much as €300 billion instead took less than half that figure.
Today's news brought us a first look at June's employment situation, and it wasn't spectacular. According to payroll provider ADP, private employers … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Stocks Tumble on Economic Woes, Pushing Mortgage Rates to New Lows - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 29, 2010 - 06/29/10 02:06 PM
European Liquidity Worries Hammer Markets; US Consumers' Outlook Glum; Home Prices Rise Slightly; 10-year Treasury Breaks Through 3% - Rate Lock Report for June 29, 2010
When I first saw the headlines and initial quotes this morning, the phrase, "Smoke 'em if you got 'em" came to mind. It was that bad. The 10-year treasury had dipped below the psychologically important 3% threshold, suggesting it may be moving even lower still. The later data wasn't all that encouraging, either
There are two main issues in play today. First, Wall St. is really spooked about the upcoming repayment of €442 billion on … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Austerity Measures Spook Traders, Suggest Even Better Mortgage Rates - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 28, 2010 - 06/28/10 12:13 PM
Last week's average 30-year fixed rate was a record low 4.69% - Could this week's be even better? - All sorts of employment data coming this week - Rate Lock Report for June 28, 2010
The week of June 21-25, 2010 saw a new all-time low mortgage rate as data brought into question the health of the housing market, manufacturing, and employment. On Thursday, there was a significant sell-off in mortgage securities that brought into question whether rates could hold at such a low level, but Friday's actions erased almost all of that sell-off. I would suggest that some part of … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Final GDP Report Confirms Growth is Slower than Expected - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 25, 2010 - 06/25/10 01:20 PM
Mortgage sell off yesterday was mostly profit taking; rates headed back towards lowest on record - Rate Lock Report for Friday, June 25, 2010
Many of us who were floating loans yesterday were shocked yesterday when a market that had opened significantly stronger sold off gradually throughout the day, ending with mortgage pricing almost 3/4 of 1 point, or between .125-.25% in rate, worse. Analyzing the data and other information available yesterday, there was no underlying reason for this sell off, rather, traders who had seen the value of their holdings increase substantially recently took yesterday's stock market as a cue … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Markets Slump Sharply on Weak Data, Profit-Taking - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 24, 2010 - 06/24/10 04:44 PM
Unemployment Claims Fall Slightly, Durable Goods Orders Less than expected, but traders want none of it - Rate Lock Report for June 24, 2010
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee said exactly what I expected: Economic recovery continues, but is not as strong as expected; inflation pressures are minimal. The net result to markets? Next to nothing. After closing essentially unchanged from the Fed announcement, stocks opened weaker this morning, strengthening the bond markets, on continued worries about the ripple effects of the European economic crisis. US data today hasn't helped that any, but the market's reaction has been a … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Waiting to hear, "Economic recovery continues, but is not as strong as expected; inflation pressures are minimal" from the Fed - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 23, 2010 - 06/23/10 10:33 AM
Federal Reserve ends two-day meeting, makes policy announcement at 2:15 PM today, but it's their wording that will influence markets much more than their action - Rate Lock Report for June 23, 2010
The policy action the Federal Reserve Open Markets Committee will take today is almost universally expected to be nothing. No rate increase, and, with no room to go downwards, no decrease either. So, what are traders waiting for?
Over the past few years, when the Fed has declined to take any action to change interest rates, a quite common occurrence, traders have placed more weight on the wording … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Existing home sales disappoint, and Europe worries continue - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 22, 2010 - 06/22/10 11:06 AM
Economists expect 6.1% rise, market delivers 2.2% decrease in existing home sales; Europe's biggest bank BNP Paribas SA sees its rating cut -- Rate Lock Report for June 22, 2010
Yesterday, markets opened strong on news of China's liberalization of currency trading policy, only to soften throughout the day, leading to a very nice improvement in mortgage pricing compared to where it started the morning. Pricing has continued to improve this morning, starting on concerns after Europe's largest bank by deposits had its credit rating cut due to concerns about the strength of its assets, among other reasons. This concern brought … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: China Loosens Currency Policy; Stocks Open Strong, but Falter -- Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 21, 2010 - 06/21/10 02:37 PM
Currency rise would mean imports more expensive, but what is the implication for rates? Rate Lock Report for June 21, 2010
When I wrote the rate update last Friday, I wasn't expecting we'd have much to talk about today. I was wrong. Over the weekend, China made a major announcement, saying that it would allow its currency to float somewhat more freely compared to the US Dollar. For the last two years, the Renminbi, or yuan, has traded in a very narrow range with the dollar, as China instituted an effective currency peg to the dollar in response to the financial … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Manufacturing? What Manufacturing? - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 18, 2010 - 06/18/10 09:22 AM
Big miss in manufacturing survey of Philadelphia region adds support to bonds; Quadruple-witching today, especially after 3:00 PM EST; USA-Slovenia at 9:30 AM - Rate Lock Report for June 18, 2010
Happy Friday! At least Celtics fans can celebrate that fact after last night's heartbreaking defeat.
Another disappointment yesterday was the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index, or Philly Fed Index. This index, published monthly, gives insight into manufacturing activity in the states overseen by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Economists had been expecting the index to come in around 21.4; instead, the result was 8. Any positive result indicates there was … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: This time it's oil driving interest rates?!? - Daily Mortgage Rate Update for June 17, 2010 - 06/17/10 10:21 AM
BP suspends dividend to fund $20 Billion cleanup and compensation fund; Energy prices drive wholesale inflation negative - Rate Lock Report for June 17, 2010
Yesterday, we received several economic reports, but there were other headlines driving mortgage rates too. Wholesale inflation, through the Producer Price Index, showed that prices declined by 0.3%, but stripping out more volatile food and energy costs, prices actually increased 0.2%. Keep in mind that notation about food and energy - we'll be coming back to that. A survey of manufacturing activity gave some support to the notion that it may be manufacturing that pulls the … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: What's this 'Stock Lever' thing, and why is it making mortgage rates worse? - Daily Mortgage Rate update for June 16, 2010 - 06/16/10 08:24 AM
Big Rise in Stocks Puts Pressure on Mortgage Rates; Inflation Data Coming this Morning - Rate Lock Report for June 16, 2010
Good morning, at least I hope it is! Unfortunately, if you took my advice yesterday on mortgage refinance rates, you're probably a little bit worse off today than you were yesterday morning. Mortgage pricing started very strongly on Tuesday, after climbing out of a little dip on Monday, but got pounded later in the day as investors flocked to a sharply rising stock market.
The relationship between equity and debt markets is one that will often affect pricing for … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Another European Downgrade, and we're back where we started - Daily Rate Update for June 15, 2010 - 06/15/10 08:53 AM
Greek Debt Downgraded to Junk; Housing and Manufacturing Data Coming - June 15,2010 Rate Lock Report
Good morning! Once again yesterday, financial markets opened significantly higher, only to close down. I wish I could say this is a new thing, but it is something that has been happening 2 or 3 times a week since the beginning of May. While there is a specific cause we can point to yesterday, on the whole this trend of day-long declines appears to by a symptom of a market that is just a bit too bearish to have confidence in any significant advance.
Yesterday's … (3 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: A bumpy week ends almost where it started - Economic Recap of week of June 7-11 2010 - 06/14/10 12:47 PM
Volatile markets reward patience and perseverance - Mortgage rates end the week flat after being up .25% at one point
One lesson I hope we've learned from the volatile markets we've experienced lately is patience. There have been a number of instances like last Thursday and Friday in which mortgage pricing dropped sharply in a single day, only to recover most, or all, of the loss in very short order. In this case, the cause of last week's drop was positive data on Europe and employment, and the following rise came about due to negative data on consumer spending.
This week … (0 comments)
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dan hartman mortgage: Is the Mortgage Backed Security market shrinking? What would that mean for mortgage rates? - 04/05/10 12:30 PM
In my last post, I suggested that there has been a substantial improvement in the safety of mortgage backed securities, from an investment perspective. In doing that, I looked at some factors affecting the market, and I was hit with a surprising realization:
The market for Mortgage Backed Securities may actually be shrinking.
Consider the past few years' changes: stricter underwriting; illiquid "toxic" assets; narrowing risk premia; reduced home equity, among other factors. As a result, Americans are buying fewer homes, and are less able to refinance.
If these factors are any reliable indication, it suggests that the dollar value of … (0 comments)
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Dan Hartman
Providence,
RI
More about me…
Province Mortgage Associates - (401) 263-8655
Address: 10 Davol Sq, Providence, RI, 02903
Office Phone: (401) 490-4400 x 114
Cell Phone: (401) 263-8655
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Dan Hartman's Blog about mortgages, real estate, and the economy in New England, and the United States, especially Rhode Island Rates, Connecticut Mortgages, Massachusetts Rate Locks, and New Hampshire Home Sales. Let Dan leverage his MBA in Finance and experience as a college professor for you!
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