mortgage: The 4.00% mortgage rate may soon be extinct! - 11/18/10 10:18 AM
The bond market is sinking again this morning, sending mortgage rates up yet again.
As you can see from the chart below, the bond has been on a downslide which has sent mortgage rates soaring up about .50% just in the last 13 days!
If you have clients that are refinancing and waiting for rates to "come back down," they may be very disappointed and miss the bus.
Remember, everything the gov't is doing by purchasing bonds and stimulating the economy is designed to help business start moving again. When that happens, and it will to some degree, the stock … (2 comments)
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mortgage: Rates On The Rise - Is This A Trend? - 11/10/10 09:33 AM
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mortgage: Goldman Sachs Brings Down Stocks, Interest Rates Improve - 04/30/10 06:53 PM
Goldman Brings Down Stocks, Interest Rates Improve.
(When the bond goes up, rates go down.)
As you can see by the chart below the bond is currently surging higher, currently up +28 basis points. This is going to help rates going into the weekend if we can hold on to those gains.
The News Moving the Bond Today:
There's really only one story that seems to be moving the bond positively: the government's investigation of Goldman Sachs. Today, a criminal investigation was opened by Federal prosecutors in addition to the civil suit that has been put them front and center in … (0 comments)
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mortgage: Mortgage Interest Rate - Weekly Wrap Up - 04/09/10 04:56 PM
New Range for Rates?
(When the bond goes up, rates go down.)
This morning, the bond started off in negative territory, losing as much as 25 basis points early on. Then, at midday, the bond was at its highest levels testing the resistance point you see in the chart. This represents the 100.15 price, and the bond just couldn't rally past it today. It closed up +9 points.
The chart shows two green brackets where the bond has traded since Wednesday of last week. Could this be our new post-gov't MBS program trading range for a while? Only time will tell.
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mortgage: Bond Still Down - Showing No Signs Of Recovery - 04/01/10 02:18 PM
Bonds are still way down, currently -38 bps.
When bonds are down, rates are up.
Rates have probably changed about .125% in cost from yesterday's close.
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mortgage: Mortgage Interest Rates Up Early This Morning - 1st Day After Gov't Stops MBS Purchase Program - 04/01/10 09:03 AM
Morning Rate Update (8:45 am CST)
ALERT TO LOCK!
(When the bond goes down, rates go up.)
This morning, the first day after the government's bond purchase program ended, the bond takes an immediate dive, currently down -41 points. This is equal to about a .25% cost to hold the same rate as yesterday.
If you have not yet locked in these great rates, you may very well miss them if you do not act quickly. If you know someone that is in the loan process, please make them aware as well.
Please contact me if you have any questions.
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mortgage: Bond Purchase Program Ends Today! What Will Happen To Mortgage Rates? - 03/31/10 04:23 PM
(When the bond goes down, rates go up.)
Today the bond is ending down, somewhere around -12 points.
The downward trend began on March 24th where you see the big red candlestick going down the chart. It dropped even further on March 25, but then regained most of the loss. Since that time, it has not been able to recover even half the loss from the March 24th drop.
If you have been following my blog posts and commentaries, you will remember the Treasury department has announced it will stop buying Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS) at the end of March. … (0 comments)
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mortgage: Mortgage Rates Jump! - 03/24/10 02:46 PM
ALERT TO LOCK!
I have been warning for the past few weeks about the impact on mortgage rates when the government stops purchasing at the end of March. My concern is rates could go up as much as .50% around and just after this date.
The FNMA 4.5% coupon bond is now down -66 points, and has been falling all day - breaking through any support levels.
(When the bond goes down, rates go up.)
Why is this happening today? The only indicator on the street is heavy selling of bonds as the government's mortgage bond purchase program comes to an end … (1 comments)
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mortgage: Last Chance For Great Mortgage Interest Rates! - 03/10/10 01:05 PM
Important Trend!
If you have been watching mortgage rates trying to figure out when they are going to get better, the below chart may tell you what you need to know. As you can see, over the last 3 months the 30 year FNMA bond has hit a ceiling of resistance you see at the top of the chart as a red line. It corresponds to 101.45 on the left or R2 on the right.
This ceiling effect tells us the chances are slim the 30 year FNMA bond will improve past this level.
When the bond price is up, rates … (1 comments)
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mortgage: Higher Interest Rates Signaled - 02/19/10 05:57 PM
Shortly after the markets closed on Thursday, the Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point increase to the Discount Rate. This is the rate the Fed charges banks to borrower money, and does not have a direct affect on mortgage rates. But you will read below how it will negatively impact mortgage rates.
This news is a key signal our season of incredibly Low Mortgage Rates may be coming to a swift close.
The Fed's increase of the Discount Rate implies the U.S. economy is strong enough to withstand the increase in lending rates, which is the type of signal Wall … (3 comments)
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mortgage: Fed President Doubts Mortgage Purchase Program Will Continue - 01/15/10 11:07 AM
Fed President Doubts Mortgage Purchase Program Will Continue - Rates Expected To Rise (excerpted from Mortgage News Daily.com)
On Wednesday night New York Federal Reserve Bank President Bill Dudley appeared on the PBS Nightly Business Report. It is important to point out that the New York Fed President has more influence than any other President on the board. The New York Fed president serves as the FOMC's vice chairman and is a permanent voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee. The NY Fed President is usually expected to keep a low profile, so Mr. Dudley's willingness to give his perspective should be taken … (1 comments)
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mortgage: Fed leaves interest rates unchanged - what does that mean for mortgage rates? - 11/04/09 07:40 PM
Today the Federal Reserve closed out a two-day meeting with a unanimous vote to keep benchmark overnight interest rates unchanged in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.
(It is important to note this is not the mortgage loan rate - it is the overnight rate depository institutions charge to other depository institutions. So basically, it is what banks charge each other, not what banks charge borrowers. It directly affects the Prime Lending rate offered by banks on home equity loans, and you can usually add 3.00% to the Fed Funds rate to discover the Prime Lending rate, currently at 3.25%.)
The Fed's statement said the … (3 comments)
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mortgage: Rates On The Rise - But May Drop Quickly Again - 06/09/09 04:48 PM
Mortgage rates have increased sharply since Memorial Day, now approaching 6.0%.Why is this happening?
Oversupply of bonds and fears of inflation. There are so many loans being pooled and sold out there that the government does not have the ability to buy them all. So if the next "bidder" for a pool of loans is only buying if the returns are a little higher, that takes the available rates up, and up, until the supply has been exhausted. Inflation fears are still rumbling, and will continue to rumble if the news about the economy seems remotely positive. We all know its … (0 comments)
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mortgage: Mortgage Rates Rise Sharply - Find Out Why - 05/27/09 04:52 PM
Mortgage rates rose sharply today as mortgage bonds had one of their largest one-day drops in history.
Like I warned in my May 7th blog post below, the mortgage rates were in a very precarious position and it would only take a little nudge int he wrong direction to create a drastice move up.
What Caused Today's Huge Sell-Off?
It started last Thursday when Bill Gross from PIMCO questioned the AAA credit rating of the US.Then Credit Suisse said that the Fed may be slowing down their MBS purchase program. We had better than expected Consumer Confidence numbers yesterday and a small … (1 comments)
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mortgage: Big Banks Using Bad Loans As Earnings - 05/27/09 12:47 PM
Why are big banks like Wells Fargo, J.P. Morgan, and Bank of America reporting "gains" in their earnings by purchasing bad loans?
Bloomberg news broke this story earlier today.
"Purchase Accounting" method allows them to report billions of dollars in gains to their earnings from the purchase of impaired loans. Could this make any sense at all??
I wonder if the next time I want to get a loan from a bank and they ask me to produce assets, I will show them about 3 wrecked cars I bought. "They only cost me $1,000 each, but they are really worth about $10,000 when they … (0 comments)
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mortgage: Mortgage Rates On The Rise Again! - 05/26/09 06:54 PM
Today the 30-year mortgage bonds closed down -50 bps (basis points).
So what does that mean, you ask?
When mortgage bonds go down, their yields go up. This in turn directly affects the mortgage rates and causes them to go up as well. (don't need the technical explanation to understand this relationship)
What caused it?Stocks rallied and closed up almost 200 points. Unfortunately, what is good for the economy can sometimes be bad for mortgage rates. In short, when stocks are expected to go higher, investors take their money out of the safe low yields of mortgage bonds and take on … (0 comments)
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mortgage: Adjustable Rate Mortgages - Rarely A Good Idea - 12/24/08 11:17 AM
We are not proponents of Adjustable Rate Mortgages for most people primarily due to three factors:1. The average person does not fully understand how their rate will be adjusted once it reaches the adjustment period. Many people do not receive good explanations or advice from the loan officer regarding the adjustment period and how the new rate will be calculated. For example, many A.R.M.s that started at 5.00% will rise to 8.00% or higher on their first adjustment. On a 30 year $200,000.00 loan amount, that is an increase of $394.00 each month, and can continue to rise unless refinanced to … (0 comments)
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mortgage: Why Does Dave Ramsey Only Endorse Churchill? - 12/24/08 11:12 AM
The reason I am writing today is to answer a question that some Dave Ramsey listeners and fans often ask. Q: "Why Does Dave Ramsey Only Endorse Churchill Mortgage?"
Great Question!Dave Ramsey has exclusively endorsed Churchill Mortgage nationwide to his loyal listeners since the beginning of his radio show in 1993. He will not allow any other mortgage company to advertise on his show, because he has full trust that Churchill Mortgage will always do the right thing for the customer, and that may mean not advising you to do a mortgage at all. Dave has developed this high level of trust … (0 comments)
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