I am writing this article because I run across many lenders who want value for their deliquent loans, but seem to still think that an appraisal or a BPO with 90 - 120 day value can be stated. Most lenders still want you to state the 90-120 value higher than the 30 (fire sale) value. Unfortunately, the property is worth more with a 30 day sale versus a 90 or 120 day value. Does this not hold true even in a stable market???
Does an Appraisal show the true value in a declining market? No, I don't believe it does because an appraisal is based on sales, not current competition. In a declining market, prices are falling...not staying stable or improving. More weight must be given on the current competition.
Does a BPO show true value? A "Broker Price Opinion" which allows the Realtor to price a property based on recent sales and competition. Hopefully, the Agent will price the property based more on competition. With so many properties available for sale and more on the horizon to be marketed, one must price the property near the top of the active comparable pool. If a property is priced 50th of its competition in a given area, what is the likelihood it will sell?
What is a comp? A comp is a comparable property for sale but also the current competition. A comp must be close to the subject property in size, features, age, and size of lot. We must give credence to properties with additional features, size, and lot. Some Banks may have a property with more features at a "reduced price" to get a quick sale. Our searches must include additional areas outside the one mile radius. I believe a buyer would be happy to pay less for a property with similar features in a similar area for less money.
I believe it is our responsibility to inform the Banks that a 30 day value is worth more than a 90-120 value in a "declining market". It is also our responsibility to do a detailed search of current active properties with additional features and properties outside the given area that might be competition. I have seen too many properties priced too high losing value during this marketing period. If a property is priced correctly it will sell quickly for the highest price.