I don't know exactly what drew me out the other morning as sunrise but once I got out on the dock I saw the most breathaking beauty. The water was like glass and the layer of fog hugging the water added a mystical feel to an already beautiful morning. You can also see one long red leaf still handing on a gum tree. I took this with a simple point and shoot camera!
The weather has been perfect ever since the heavy rain and winds left our Lake Norman area late last week. This morning I looked out to see a beautiful sunrise so I decided to grab my camera and try to capture it for my blog readers.
Like many Lake Norman sunrises, the water was absolutely still creating a visual mirror image of everything in view. There was a mystical layer of fog hovering just above the surface. It was hard to believe that some miles away it was a typical Monday morning with the I-77 filling up with commuters. This is why so many of us love living on Lake Norman.
We write a lot about the gorgeous sunsets here on Lake Norman, and for good reason, they can be spectacular. I have a wonderful waterfront listing that faces due West. This is what my sellers get to enjoy every evening:
But, don't ever underestimate the beauty of a sunrise when considering a waterfront home. Whether a sunset or a sunrise, the beauty that surrounds life in Lake Norman never ceases to amaze those of us who are lucky enough to live here!
The Point in Mooresville NC is arguably the most prestigious luxury community in all of Lake Norman and it is also the largest with 18 miles of beautiful Lake Norman's shoreline. So, when I see interesting changes in housing numbers in The Point I try to put them in context to see if they are in fact an indicator of a significant shift or trend.
Back on September 18, 2008 I wrote: The Point in Lake Norman: A Case Study #2. In this report I noted that we had 123 active listings which translated at the time to a whopping 41-month supply of inventory! Then, in:Lake Norman Real Estate: Affordable Housing at The Point...Wow! on July 25, 2009 I noted that we had 114 active listings and had sold on 19 homes since the beginning of the year or a 38-month supply of active listings.
Today, the number of active listings in The Point has dropped to 82 or 33% below a year ago September. In today's buyers' market this number alone is good news. But, it gets even more interesting when you look at the recent sales numbers. In this past October we had 9 closed sales in The Point which is a significant jump from any month for several years. This makes for a total of 36 sales year-to-date in 2009 in The Point. But, as of July 25, 2009 we only had 19 sales so we have almost doubled our sales for the year in The Point in the past 4 months. At 36 sales we have already surpassed the 2008 sales total for the year of 33. And, we have 7 pending sales and 5 conditional sales that will most likely close by the end of 2009 for a potential total annual sales of 48 almost half of which will have been in this winter 4th quarter. If we average 5 sales per month we would have dropped to about a 16-month supply of active listings. While still high, this number is less than half of the 41 months we had in September of 2008.
What does such a strong fourth quarter mean?
While it is still clearly a buyer's market in The Point, I think these numbers are significant enough to indicate a positive trend. Inventory is dropping and sales are increasing. While half of the inventory and sales are homes priced under $1million, there are FOUR homes priced well over $1million currently under contract and poised to close. It would seem that some of our luxury home buyers are jumping off of the fence, enticed by some great price reductions and perhaps a sense that now is a good time to buy.
One example of an incredible bargain is a waterfront lot foreclosure that closed this past week in The Point for $400,000. This lot sold for about half the market value. It has very good water and views and is about an acre of a flat to gently sloping lot...just what most home buyers and builders are seeking. At our peak this lot was probably worth over $1million.
Here are some interesting statistics related to homes at The Point:
Active Listings:
82 today (months of supply = 9.8 if use the past 30 days or 16.5 if use last 3 months)
114 in July of this year (months of supply = 38)
123 in September of 2008 (months of supply = 41)
Peak of about 140
Pending Sales: 7
Conditional Sales: 5
Contingent Sales: 2
Solds:
Since October 1, 2009: 9 (25 % of this year's sales were in October!)
Sun hasn't quite set. No lights on dock/pier but clear with good color
This was my photograpphers favorite shot...sun is gone and lights are on. A bit too pink for me.
Crystal clear water, great reflection and very dramatic
Here is a daytime shot for comparison
All of these photos were taken by a professional I use for my listings. Personally, I like the third one. Even though it doesn't covey the width of the water I love the reflections and the color. However, it does need to be straightened a bit.
Wow, what a month this has been for not only Lake Norman real estate but our national real estate market!
Hot of the press, of course, is the big news that President Obama signed into law yesterday the newly revised and extended Homebuyer Tax Credit! Not only does this legislation extend the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit to April 30, 2010, it also adds an exciting new provision. As of yesterday and through April 30, 2010, homeowners who have lived in their primary residence for 5 consecutive years out of the previous 8 years will be eligible for a tax credit of up to $6500 if they sell this home and have a new written purchase contract by April 30, 2010 and closing no later than July 1, 2010. This is expected to be a big boost to home sales throughout the country.
Other good news came from the Federal Reserve this week. They will keep the target rate for federal funds at zero to .25% and "continues to expect that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period".
At the same time the National Association of Realtors report a record 8 straight months of pending home sales increases.
However, on the negative news side, there has been much discussion about the "shadow" inventory expected to come on the market next spring and a second round of foreclosures brought on by Option ARMS and Alt-A loans that are resetting over the next 18 months. Some are saying that this second wave of foreclosures, which for the most part are not subprime, will hit the mid-range and luxury home markets because these are loans that the middle class Americans got during the 2004-2007 time-frame. And, getting new home loans, especially jumbo, are still extremely challenging and a tedious process at best.
It is truly impossible to find any consensus on the future of the US housing market.
However, by taking a look at our local numbers we can have a better understanding the current Lake Norman real estate market and home sales trends and glean potential mini-trends from these. Below are our October real estate numbers for Lake Norman:
Lake Norman's October 2009 Housing Statistics
Active Listings continue to decline (4.0%). As I have written many times, this is an important part of our Lake Norman housing recovery. Again, note the average price of our active listings when compared to the average price of our solds this past month. Our high-end market is still suffering however I am seeing some increased activity in part due to foreclosures and short sales.
Contingent Sales are down slightly compared to the 17 in September. These are the homes under contract that are contingent upon the buyer's home selling
Conditional Sales are up slightly compared to 58 in September. This confirms that recent activity remains at about the same level as last month
Pending sales dropped slightly compared to 87 in September. This would further confirm that we might expect November closed sales to be about equal to October and September which would actually be a significant improvement over November 2008.
The number of closed sales was identical to last month and a whopping 22% higher than October 2008! I am now feeling pretty confident that our fourth quarter 2009 sales will be significantly stronger than last years record lows. While this is relatively good news, it is hard to predict past November at this point.
5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
January
27
69
87
102
105
February
40
50
105
98
88
March
55
71
151
153
136
April
65
90
120
143
152
May
66
90
152
182
157
June
87
82
169
227
172
July
90
101
147
166
191
August
62
76
144
180
233
September
78
82
105
135
163
October
78
64
98
117
184
November
46
84
88
145
December
62
64
132
134
Totals:
648
901
1489
1704
1873
* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.
**I have made an adjustment of the totals reflecting the ACTUAL sales every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.
Summary
Overall it is my opinion that sales will definitely be stronger in our fourth quarter compared to last year. Granted, we are up against some very weak sales but I like the trend! Some of my buyers have jumped off the fence to take advantage of some incredible deals in all price ranges.
Based upon our October sales we currently have 17.7 months of active listings which is 3 times the 6-month levels of a balanced housing market however we are seeing this number improve slightly each month. Yes, Lake Norman is clearly in a buyers' market and probably will be for some time to come but we are heading in the right direction.
Great Room with 2-Story High Ceilings and Wall of Windows with Lake Views
Great Room
Rustic Formal Dining Room
Professional Chefs Kitchen
Commercial 6-Burner Range/Oven
8' Island with Granite
Master Bedroom Opens to Lake
Large Recreation/Billiard Room on Main
One of the Upstairs Suites
View of House and Lake From Driveway
View of Driveway from Gated Entrance
3-Car Garage
Spectacular Sunset Views
Outdoor Lighting Enhances the Sunset Views!
View of Home from Dock
View of Home from Shoreline
View of Home at Sunset
Description
Imagine waking up every morning to expansive views of Lake Norman, brewing a cup of coffee in your professional chef's kitchen and settling into a rocking chair to soak in the peace and natural beauty of one of the most spectacular lakes in the entire country!
Or, imagine coming home in the evening to share a glass of wine with family or friends on your covered dock gazebo or even out in your boat, enjoying your spectacular sunset views of the lake.
Nestled on .79 acres of beautiful mature trees and landscaping, this remodeled Dutch Colonial home enjoys 216' for shoreline with year-round deep water. With 6 bedrooms, 4 of which have their own private bathrooms, this home offers a variety of living options for a wide variety of lifestyles with myriad ways to enjoy living on the beautiful shoreline of Lake Norman!
Empty nesters could enjoy hosting multiple family and friends while having options for home offices or other special hobbies/interests without loosing their sense of privacy.
A large family could make use of all of the bedrooms with no fighting over bathrooms!
A smaller family might make the upstairs rooms into a childs' paradise with TV and activity rooms and even computer rooms for quiet study.
Singles or couples have 5 rooms upstairs for friends, roommates, media rooms, home offices, hobbies and/or family visits all the while enjoying their own space in the downstairs master wing.
Vacation Station, our Lake Norman summer rental company, estimated that the weekly summer rental for this home would range from $2000 - $2600 per WEEK! As a second/vacation home this is a great bonus.
Are you a car enthusiast? (We have many here in Race City USA). The 1150 square foot heated and air conditioned 3-car garage offers an incredible opportunity for a year-round workshop and pleny of space for all of yourr tools and equipement.
If recreation/outdoor sports and boating are your thing, the two boat slips, your own boat ramp and large garage provide plenty of space for boats, Jetskiis, kayaks, mountain bikes, ATVs, and all of the lake toys you can imagine!
Finally, if you love to cook and entertain like the current seller who is a pastry chef, your professional kitchen, expansive downstairs which opens to large patios, hot tub, gazebo, lovely gardens and the dock gazebo are an entertainers paradise!
The Big Indian Loop neighborhood is so loved by the residents that many try to stay on the street when planning to trade up or down. It is a quiet street with lots of trees well located for easy access to the I-77 and shopping.
Truly an opportunity to enjoy the best of Lake Norman living!
Every year at this time the Lake Norman area comes alive with pumpkin patches, Halloween festivities for all ages and homes decorated to welcome all of our young trick -or -treaters.
If you are in search of a pumpkin patch or Halloween festivities in and around our Mooresville and Lake Norman area, here are a few ideas:
Carrigan Farms: Open 9-5 weekdays, 9-4 Saturday and 12-4 Sundays through Halloween. Pick a pumpkin, visit the animals and have some fresh apple cider. There are even hayrides every 15 minutes and special old-fashioned night time hay rides too! 1261 Oak Ridge Farm Highway/N.C.150, Mooresville.
Patterson Farm: Pumpkin patch is open with tours through Nov. 6th and on weekends don't miss Paw Paw Carl's Palyground where you can enjoy hayrides, a corn pit, Tomato Slingshot, Duck Races and more! See their website for more details.
Sixth Annual Boy Scout Pumpkin Patch: Pumpkins and gourds of all shapes and sizes. 17115 Kenton Drive, Cornelius
The Great Pumpkin Patch for Missions: Pumpkins, decorative corn, gourds and more! Davidson United Methodist Church: 233 S. Main Street. Davidson.
Or, just look to any of our many local produce stands like Josh's Produce Market on Williamson Road who are brimming over with pumpkins and decorations for your Lake Norman home!
Of course, it would not be Halloween without some fun, and even spooky events for all ages.
The Amazing Maize Maze at Rural Hill In Huntersville is going green this year! Open now through November1st, they have daily hours plus they are open for "Flashlight Mazes" on October 23rd and 31st! My daughter and I went several years ago and had a great time but do wear comfortable shoes and allow enough time and energy to discover all of the clues to make it through the maze successfully! If you need help, the have volunteers perched high on watch towers there to give you some hints.
t1 tapas in Birkdale Village is hosting The Spooktacular Halloween Bash to benefit Loaves & Fish on Friday, October 23rd, Tickets are $35 in advance or $45 at the door. Call 704.895.4373 for detail. They are also having a "Trick or Treat Weekend Oct 30 - 31st. Come and enjoy all the amazing new multi-media and enjoy Halloween cuisine and "wicked drink specials".
Downtown Mooresville Annual Halloween Treat for Families: 3-5pm Oct. 30. Downtown will be crawling with little ghosts and goblins as businesses hand out candy and treats. 3 - 5pmPumpkin Carving Contest, photographs of children in costumes and trick or treating for kids.
Downtown Davidson's Halloween March on Main Steet in Davidson 5-7pm. Free. Costumed characters of all ages are invited to march!
Howl-O-Ween Bash: Join Pet PALS for their first ever Howl-O-Ween bash at the new hit nightclub, Halo at the NC Music Factory. Enjoy appetizers, drink specials and dancing all to support the Humane Society of Charlotte. While costumes aren't required, they are encourged. We hope you can come out for a howling good time! Halo 820 Hamilton St Suite A2 Charlotte, NC 28206 704-246-1752 .
Loooking for something REALLY SPOOKY? So SPOOKY that they do not recommend it for children 12 and under? Check out Forbidden Farms!:
If you have been following the national real estate business news this past month, these are just some of the comments/headlines you might have read:
"Credit shortage has strangled recovery; households are in bunkers under collapsed net worth, and not coming out until home values are safe." (Lou Barnes, Inman News)
"The jumbo loan mod ‘pipe dream'" (Bernice Ross Inman News)
‘Mortgage Delinquencies - The Coming Storm....While subprime mortgages sparked the first round of housing problems two years ago, now troubles are lurking further up the food chain...White-collar job losses have accelerated while more adjustable-rate loans to prime borrowers are resetting to higher payments..." (Chief US Economist at MFR Inc. Joshua Shapiro)
"Credit Woes to Threaten Housing Recovery?" (Consumer New and Advice and RISMEDIA)
"Across the country, homebuilders and developers are reporting a deterioration in credit availability and intensifying pressure on borrowers with outstanding loans." (National Association of Home Builders Chairman Joe Robson)
At the same time the National Association of Realtors report a record 7 straight months of pending home sales increases. It is truly impossible to find any consensus on the future of the US housing market.
However, by taking a look at our local numbers we can have a better understanding the current Lake Norman real estate market and home sales trends and glean potential mini-trends from these.
Lake Norman's September Housing Statistics
Active Listings continue to decline (3.7%), this is a important part of our Lake Norman housing recovery. Again, note the average price of our active listings when compared to the average price of our solds this past month. Our high-end market is still suffering in part due to the difficulty getting jumbo loans.
Contingent Sales are up slightly compared to the 14 in August. These are the homes under contract that are contingent upon the buyer's home selling
Conditional Sales are also up slightly compared to 54 in August. This confirms that recent activity remains at about the same level as last month
Pending sales dropped slightly compared to 91 in August. This would further confirm that we might expect October closed sales to be about equal to September.
The number of closed sales jumped 25% compared to August but dropped about 5% when compared to September 2008. If we stay equal to 2008 winter sales we will experience a significant slow down. The fact that October looks about equal to this past month indicates we might actually have stronger 4th quarter sales than 2008. While this is relatively good news, it is hard to predict past October at this point.
5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
January
27
69
87
102
105
February
40
50
105
98
88
March
55
71
151
153
136
April
65
90
120
143
152
May
66
90
152
182
157
June
87
82
169
227
172
July
90
101
147
166
191
August
62
76
144
180
233
September
78
82
105
135
163
October
66
98
117
184
November
46
84
88
145
December
62
64
132
134
Totals:
570
901
1489
1704
1873
* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.
**I have made an adjustment of the totals reflecting the ACTUAL sales every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.
Summary
Overall it is my opinion that sales may be a bit stronger in our fourth quarter compared to last year. Granted, we are up against some very weak sales but it does appear we may experience some improvement.
One of the most important trends to watch right now are the prices ranges of Lake Norman homes that are selling. Of the 78 homes that sold last month, only 20 were above $500,000. First-time buyers are taking advantage of the $8,000 rebate and most other Lake Norman home buyers are gobbling up the foreclosures and other bargains that are now available. Some foreclosures are priced as much as 50% of the price they sold in 2005 or their original listing price.
Based upon our September sales we currently have 18.5 months of active listings which is 3 times the 6-month levels of a balanced housing market. We are still clearly in a buyers' market. It is so hard to predict what will happen if the $8,000 credit is not extended and the "shadow inventory" of potential foreclosures come to fruition.
In the next week or so I will do my 3rd quarter sales analysisby price range to provide greater insight into our Lake Norman real estate market.
October is truly one of my favorite months on Lake Norman. The skies are crisp and clear, the temperatures mild (today's high is 75) and the Lake Norman shoreline becomes ablaze with color. Our trees are just beginning to change but over the next four weeks the Dogwoods will turn a deep red, then the Maples and other trees follow, each with their own spectacular series of colors.
To make this your desktop calendar, go to: Lake Norman Real Estate, click on the round button at the top of this site's home page entitled: "Lake Norman Calendar"and up will come an image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for September 2009. All you have to do is right click and select "set as background". Enjoy!
While I have great fun taking pictures of Lake Norman, I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman!. If you'd like to submit a photo for a future calendar, please send it to...
Imagine what it would be like to have to breath through a straw. That is how one of my clients' daughters, who has severe asthma, describes how she feels when she is exposed to even the slightest bit of toxins in the air...including the ingredients in popular air fresheners and scented candles. While I was recently showing her family some Lake Norman waterfront homes, she had two serious asthma attacks triggered by just that. Each time it took her over a day to recover from just seconds of exposure to an air freshener or lingering cigarette smoke.
I must admit, despite my avid focus on "green" or "high performance" housing in Lake Norman I don't think I totally grasped the seriousness of indoor air quality until I met this family. It is one thing to learn about the latest low or no VOC (Volatile Organic compounds) paint products and the amount of organic gases like Formaldehyde that are emitted from such solid and liquids as hardwood floors, cabinets, sealers, paints, pressed wood products...the list goes on and on. It is quite another to watch this young woman gasping for air.
The good news is that indoor air quality is an important part of the "green" housing movement nationally and right here in Lake Norman. So much so, that the US Environmental Protection Agency recently created Indoor airPLUS which is designed to work in partnership with their more well known ENERGY STAR program. Just as ENERGY STAR is an accreditation program for energy efficiency, Indoor airPLUS is a program designed to encourage home builders to "employ a variety of construction practices and technologies in their new homes to help address" such air quality issues as:
Moisture Control
Radon Control
Pest Management
HVAC
Ventilation and Filtration
Combustion Venting
Building Materials
At the Indoor airPLUS's first outreach webinar they explained that 19% of US households have a member with Asthma, 40% of households have a member with a respiratory problem and that they have found that typical indoor air chemical pollution levels may be 2-5 times higher than what is considered "safe" levels.
Including these pollutants and sources of indoor air pollution:
Asbestos
Biological Pollutants
Carbon Monoxide
Formaldehyde/Pressed Wood Products
Household Cleaning and Maintenance, Personal Care, or Hobbies
Lead
Nitrogen Dioxide
Pesticides
Radon
Respirable Particles
Secondhand Smoke/Environmental Tobacco Smoke
Stoves, Heaters, Fireplaces, and Chimneys
So, how does a home in our Lake Norman area earn the Indoor AirPlus label? "A home must first be designed to earn the ENERGY STAR label, the government-backed symbol for energy efficiency. By adding up to 30 additional home design and construction features, an Indoor airPLUS qualified home helps protects residents..." from indoor air pollution. During the Lake Norman home-building process testers or "HERS" raters will visit the build site and verify the required construction specifications. The Indoor airPLUS label will be placed on the electrical panel along with the ENERGY STAR label when it has passed the certification process.
Knowledgeable Lake Norman "green" home builders view ENERGY STAR ratings as the lowest/less stringent when compared to such "green" rating systems as North Carolina's Healthy Built Homes, the National Association of Home Builders Green Home Building Guidelines and the very toughest LEED certified homes. However, while ENERGY STAR and Indoor airPLUS may not be as comprehensive as these, I am excited to be an early Lake Norman supporter or "ally" of the new Indoor airPLUS program in hopes that it will lead to an increased focus on indoor air quality throughout the building industry and by consumers both here in the Lake Norman area and throughout the country.
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
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