On our way to Cornelius one day in our trusty pontoon boat I happened to notice this peculiar looking boat!  Because Lake Norman is so large we have myriad types and sizes of boats from modest fishing dingys to jet skiis to Cigarette boats. 

Lake Norman is even home to a few mega-party boats like this one owned by NASCAR race driver Tony Stewart:

At the Peninsula Yacht Club one can find a great example of the variety of boats on Lake Norman.

While I knew that there are helipads around Lake Norman and, of course, two airports, I still was quite amazed to see the helicopter above sitting on it's own little dock right on the water.

I can't wait for next summer!

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I just got these charts from the company that provides the property search program for my Website.  LKN Realty LLC  While these pertain to the entire Charlotte Regional Mulitple Listing Service (including Lake Norman) I think they are very relevent to our Lake Norman real estate market:

1. Our total number of listings are dropping.
2. The number of Lake Norman properties that are conditional and pending is dropping
3. The average price of our Lake Norman closed sales is still dropping.  This is due to the high percentage of foreclosures and short sales.

I am looking forward to seeing our final December numbers!

This month may be one of the most significanat to date for gaining a clearer sense of direction for our future Lake Norman real estate market.  We know that November experienced stronger sales due in part to the expectation of the expiration of the first-time buyer tax credit.  If sales continue to show improvement this month, it may be an indication that the bargains are drawing more and more buyers into the Lake Norman housing market.

One interesting thing I have observed is that many banks want properties off their books by the end of the year.  I just has a short sale approved after months of waiting...but the stipulation was that we had to close by Dec. 30th.  This may also contribute to a relatively strong December.

The above chart is a summary of today's "Hot Sheet" from the Charlotte Multiple Listing Service for single family homes in all of Lake Norman (area 13).  These numbers represent a real time snapshot of the past two week's activity.  (December 1 - 15).  As always, I have included the past 5 months so that you can put these numbers in perspective.

Highlights:

New listings dropped sharply compared to previous months and are 22% below the same period in 2008.  (Our total number of active listing in Lake Norman have dipped below 1300 which is a 12% drop from December 2008).  A decrease in inventory is the most significant component to our housing recovery.

The number of properties that came back-on-the-market, most likely due to cancelled contracts, was actually quite high considering the time of year. This is further evidence that our loan process is extremely challenging.  More properties came back on the market than closed in the past two weeks.  Clearly This explains why our pending sales are not translating to even higher closed sales.

The number of price changes also dropped significantly.   While I am seeing price reductions daily, my guess is that many sellers will wait until after the holidays so that they get more bang for their buck so to speak.

Pending home sales remain pretty strong considering it is December.  They are 57% higher than December 2008.  Since these are an indicator of future closed sales I predict our December 2009 sales will be about the same as November or maybe even a bit higher.

The number of closed sales in the past two weeks are almost equal to October's and up 58% for the same period in December 2008.   Last year we closed 62 sales in December so I think we are on tract to beat that number!

Contingent and Conditional sales have dropped almost 30% compared to October but up 43% compared to December 2008.   Since these are properties that just went under contract, these may translate to a typical seasonal January slowdown but still indicate a dramatic improvement from December 2008!  

While the number of showings on my listings have slowed and I am not showing as much property as I did most of the year, there are still serious buyers and motivated sellers around Lake Norman.  It continues to be all about bargains and I'm sure this will be true until our prices bottom out and our inventory is back in line with our sales.

Important news to consider:

I just read in the news that wholesale prices spiked which may lead to inflation worries.  It will be very interesting to hear what the Feds say after their meeting in the next few days.  Hopefully, interest rates will remain as they are. 

Finally, a UNC Charlotte economist, John Connaughton, recently said that the NC economy has begun " ...its long, slow, turnaround, but it could take years before job and spending figures bounce back in the levels of better times..."   He went on to predict that our state's economy will grow 2.8% in 2010 compared to a decline of 3.6% in 2009.  While Connaughton expects North Carolina's unemployment rate to remain in double digits in 2010 (10.5%), he said "The recession is over, and the really positive news is we've started to see a change in the unemployment side.   Things will get better each quarter in 2010."

Our Lake Norman real estate market has a long way to go in order to fully recover but it does appear that 2010 will bring more hope than 2009!

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December is upon us here in Lake Norman and with it comes crisp clear "Carolina Blue" skies, cool temperatures (It got down to 38 degrees this morning but warmed up to 62 degrees this afternoon) and the return of "seasonal waterviews".  With the trees now bare those of us whose Lake Norman homes have "seasonal waterviews" have seen our views transformed from thick and beautiful trees to expansive views of Lake Norman!  

For this month's calendar I chose this photo of our North Carolina bird the Cardinal because of its naturally beautiful red feathers.  Perfect for this holiday season!  

To make your desktop calendar, go to Lake Norman Real Estate, then click the round button at the top of this site's home page entitled: "Lake Norman Calendar".  Click on this button and up will come an image of my Lake Norman photo wallpaper calender for December 2009.  All you have to do is right click and select "set as background". 

Enjoy and best wishes for the holidays!

While I have great fun taking pictures of Lake Norman, I would love to use one of your favorite photos depicting life here in Lake Norman!. If you'd like to submit a photo for a future calendar, please send it to... 

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One of my first exciting discoveries after moving to Lake Norman in 2005 was the extraordinary pottery; first in Seagrove and then in Catawba Valley.  Whether you are an avid collector as I am or just curious, these next four weeks are an exciting opportunity to buy from the most coveted Catawba Valley potters at their holiday kiln sales.

Besides the adherence to historical methods and traditions, Catawba Valley pottery is also unique in that in order to buy from the most popular of the potters you must attend their individual kiln sales held at their homes scattered from Vale to Lenoir.  If you have never attended a kiln sale, I truly encourage you to do so this month.  If you see me, be sure to say hi!

Here is a summary of the scheduled kiln sales.  As always, you can go to Steve Abee's CV Pottery  website for more information and directions: 

Steve Abee:  Saturday, November 28th @ 10:00am:

Steve is an incredibly talented and creative potter.  He honors all of the historic techniques including digging his own clay, making his own glazes and firing his pieces in his hand-made wood-burning Ground Hog Kiln.  His faces are known for their wide mouths and bugged eyes.  Steve also does stunning swirls pieces, miniatures and a great variety of shapes and whimsical creatures from pigs to roosters.

Joe Reinhardt:  Saturday, December 5th @ 10:00am:

Joe is a direct descendant of generations of Catawba potters.  He grew up watching Burlon Craig, the potter who is credited with saving the traditional Catawba Valley methods and teaching them to our current generation of potters.  Joe has a wonderful sense of humor which is embodied in most of his pieces.  He always writes a fun little message at the bottom of each piece.  Under this birdhouse he wrote: "12:50pm 11-18-07, Bird House for Rent and you feather dusters pay in advance or sail on."

Joe has struggled with health issues for the past years so I am always grateful to see him holding his annual kiln sale and to be able to purchase one of his wonderful pieces and have him hand sign it at his sale.  (Which he is always happy to do!) 

Kim Ellington:  Saturday, December 12th @ 10:00am:

Kim has taken Catawba Valley pottery to a new, more sophisticated level.  His large vessels and beautiful glazes are featured in art museums and pottery books.  However, recently he has caved in to our demands and makes a handful of his wonderful face jugs for his December kiln sales.  But, he also makes a large quantity of vases, mugs, plates, planters with gorgeous glazes.  This is a great place to buy holiday gifts!

Michael Ball:  Saturday, December 12th @ 10:00am:

Michael is the newest of the most collectible Catawba potters.  Since I first started collecting his pieces I have seen him perfect the art and definitely making it his own.  He truly has such an amazingly creative approach to his art that you never know what you will find.  From incredible detailed Guineas to lizards and Roosters to his facejugs I am always excited when I see his latest work!  This"eye"  jug is huge (3-gallons) with a spectacular glaze and myriad eyes.  This has become one of his signature styles but he doesn't make many so get there early!

The biggest decision I have to make is whether to go to Kim or Michael's first!

 I hope to see you at one or all of these sales.  And don't forget to got to CV Pottery  for details, directions etc.!

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I don't know exactly what drew me out the other morning as sunrise but once I got out on the dock I saw the most breathaking beauty.  The water was like glass and the layer of fog hugging the water added a mystical feel to an already beautiful morning.  You can also see one long red leaf still handing on a gum tree.  I took this with a simple point and shoot camera!

The weather has been perfect ever since the heavy rain and winds left our Lake Norman area late last week.  This morning I looked out to see a beautiful sunrise so I decided to grab my camera and try to capture it for my blog readers. 

Like many Lake Norman sunrises, the water was absolutely still creating a visual mirror image of everything in view.  There was a mystical layer of fog hovering  just above the surface.  It was hard to believe that some miles away it was a typical Monday morning with the I-77  filling up with commuters.  This is why so many of us love living on Lake Norman. 

We write a lot about the gorgeous sunsets here on Lake Norman, and for good reason, they can be spectacular.  I have a wonderful waterfront listing that faces due West.  This is what my sellers get to enjoy every evening:

But, don't ever underestimate the beauty of a sunrise when considering a waterfront home. Whether a sunset or a sunrise, the beauty that surrounds life in Lake Norman never ceases to amaze those of us who are lucky enough to live here!

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 The Point  in Mooresville NC is arguably the most prestigious luxury community in all of Lake Norman and it is also the largest with 18 miles of beautiful Lake Norman's shoreline.  So, when I see interesting changes in housing numbers in The Point I try to put them in context to see if they are in fact an indicator of a significant shift or trend. 

Back on September 18, 2008 I wrote:  The Point in Lake Norman: A Case Study #2.  In this report I noted that we had 123 active listings which translated at the time to a whopping 41-month supply of inventory!  Then, in: Lake Norman Real Estate: Affordable Housing at The Point...Wow! on July 25, 2009 I noted that we had 114 active listings and had sold on 19 homes since the beginning of the year or a 38-month supply of active listings.

Today, the number of active listings in The Point has dropped to 82 or 33% below a year ago September.  In today's buyers' market this number alone is good news.  But, it gets even more interesting when you look at the recent sales numbers.  In this past October we had 9 closed sales in The Point which is a significant jump from any month for several years.  This makes for a total of 36 sales year-to-date in 2009 in The Point.  But, as of July 25, 2009 we only had 19 sales so we have almost doubled our sales for the year in The Point in the past 4 months.  At 36 sales we have already surpassed the 2008 sales total for the year of 33.  And, we have 7 pending sales and 5 conditional sales that will most likely close by the end of 2009 for a potential total annual sales of 48 almost half of which will have been in this winter 4th quarter.  If we average 5 sales per month we would have dropped to about a 16-month supply of active listings. While still high, this number is less than half of the 41 months we had in September of 2008. 

What does such a strong fourth quarter mean?  

While it is still clearly a buyer's market in The Point, I think these numbers are significant enough to indicate a positive trend.  Inventory is dropping and sales are increasing.  While half of the inventory and sales are homes priced under $1million, there are FOUR homes priced well over $1million currently under contract and poised to close.  It would seem that some of our luxury home buyers are jumping off of the fence, enticed by some great price reductions and perhaps a sense that now is a good time to buy.

One example of an incredible bargain is a waterfront lot foreclosure that closed this past week in The Point for $400,000.  This lot sold for about half the market value.  It has very good water and views and is about an acre of a flat to gently sloping lot...just what most home buyers and builders are seeking.  At our peak this lot was probably worth over $1million.

Here are some interesting statistics related to homes at The Point: 

Active Listings:

•  82 today  (months of supply = 9.8 if use the past 30 days or 16.5 if use last 3 months)
• 114 in July of  this year  (months of supply = 38)
• 123 in September of 2008 (months of supply = 41)
• Peak of about 140

Pending Sales:  7

Conditional Sales: 5

Contingent Sales: 2

Solds:

• Since October 1, 2009:      9  (25 % of this year's sales were in October!) 
• Past 3 month or since 8/11/09:      14
• Same 3-month period in 2008:     7
• Same 3-month period in 2007:     14 
• Year-to-date 2009:      36
• All of 2008:      33
• All of 2007:      76

Price ranges of homes currently on the market:

• $500,000:   5 
• $600,000:   9
• $700,000:  6
• $800,000:  15
• $900,000:  4

Contingent Sales:

• $699,000
• $2,199,000

Conditional Sales:

• $749,000
• $899,000
• $1,495,000
• $2,750,000
• $3,950,000

Pending Sales:

• $578,500
• $695,000
• $749,900
• $779,500
• $1,599,000

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Sun hasn't quite set.  No lights on dock/pier but clear with good color

This was my photograpphers favorite shot...sun is gone and lights are on.  A bit too pink for me.

Crystal clear water, great reflection and very dramatic

Here is a daytime shot for comparison

All of these photos were taken by a professional I use for my listings.  Personally, I like the third one. Even though it doesn't covey the width of the water I love the reflections and the color.  However, it does need to be straightened a bit.

Wow, what a month this  has been for not only Lake Norman real estate but our national real estate market!

Hot of the press, of course, is the big news that President Obama signed into law yesterday the newly revised and extended Homebuyer Tax Credit!  Not only does this legislation extend the $8,000 first-time home buyer tax credit to April 30, 2010, it also adds an exciting new provision.  As of yesterday and through April 30, 2010, homeowners who have lived in their primary residence for 5 consecutive years out of the previous 8 years will be eligible for a tax credit of up to $6500 if they sell this home and have a new written purchase contract by April 30, 2010 and closing no later than July 1, 2010. This is expected to be a big boost to home sales throughout the country.

Other good news came from the Federal Reserve this week.  They will keep the target rate for federal funds at zero to .25% and "continues to expect that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period".

At the same time the National Association of Realtors report a record 8 straight months of pending home sales increases. 

However, on the negative news side, there has been much discussion about the "shadow" inventory expected to come on the market next spring and a second round of foreclosures brought on by Option ARMS and Alt-A loans that are resetting over the next 18 months.  Some are saying that this second wave of foreclosures, which for the most part are not subprime, will hit the mid-range and luxury home markets because these are loans that the middle class Americans got during the 2004-2007 time-frame.  And, getting new home loans, especially jumbo, are still extremely challenging and a tedious process at best.

It is truly impossible to find any consensus on the future of the US housing market.

However, by taking a look at our local numbers we can have a better understanding the current Lake Norman real estate market and home sales trends and glean potential mini-trends from these.  Below are our October real estate numbers for Lake Norman: 

Lake Norman's October 2009 Housing Statistics

• Active Listings continue to decline (4.0%).  As I have written many times, this is an important part of our Lake Norman housing recovery.  Again, note the average price of our active listings when compared to the average price of our solds this past month. Our high-end market is still suffering however I am seeing some increased activity in part due to foreclosures and short sales.

• Contingent Sales are down slightly compared to the 17 in September.  These are the homes under contract that are contingent upon the buyer's home selling

• Conditional Sales are up slightly compared to 58  in September.  This confirms that recent activity remains at about the same level as last month

• Pending sales dropped slightly compared to 87  in September.  This would further confirm that we might expect November closed sales to be about equal to October and September which would actually be a significant improvement over November 2008.

• The number of closed sales was identical to last month and a whopping 22% higher than October 2008!   I am now feeling pretty confident that our fourth quarter 2009 sales will be significantly stronger than last years record lows.  While this is relatively good news, it is hard to predict past November at this point.

 5-Year Comparison of Lake Norman Home Sales By Month 

* Please note that all of my numbers come from the Charlotte Region Multiple Listing Service and will not include sales that took place outside of our MLS.

**I have made an adjustment of  the totals reflecting the ACTUAL  sales  every month in 2009 and the totals in the prior calendar year.

Summary

Overall it is my opinion that sales will definitely be stronger in our fourth quarter compared to last year.  Granted, we are up against some very weak sales but I like the trend!  Some of my buyers have jumped off the fence to take advantage of some incredible deals in all price ranges.

Based upon our October sales we currently have 17.7 months of active listings which is 3 times the 6-month levels of a balanced housing market however we are seeing this number improve slightly each month.  Yes, Lake Norman is clearly in a buyers' market and probably will be for some time to come but we are heading in the right direction. 

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