I must begin this brief commentary on Technology by saying "I LOVE MY WIFE".  However, when it comes to technology she is an addict.  Every new gadget, widget and what you call it she has to have.  The only problem is she gets so inundated with the latest "Toy" that she has little to no time for the real meat of Real Estate.  I know this may sound somewhat antiquated to those of you who are in the now generation but you can have all the blogs, web presence, practice what the talking heads say is the "best business practice" hire your virtual assistance and still strike out in that one important area.  PRODUCTION!!!  Some of us forget that this is still a meet and greet industry:  Personal face time and presenting oneself as a knowledgeable professional.  A professional who is responsive and receptive to the needs of buyers or sellers while keeping yourself informed and current as related to the needs of the industry.

I say this because my wife has acquired another toy to distract her and I simply do not understand it:  Except in the context of "It's the newest and best thing out there".  The latest toy is a red Dell Inspiron Mini-10 Notebook.  Yes, it weighs 2 pounds, it connects with blazing speed to the net anywhere, and the key board is 92% of the standard laptop keyboard.  It has three USB connections, multiple slots for three different kinds of flash cards (for your camera); programs include Adobe photo shop.  In addition, here is the real biggie.... It comes with Microsoft works...WOW!  Oh and did I say it is a real pretty shade of red. 

But,  it doesn't come with a CD-R /DVD combo Drive, and it's sound can best be described as something akin to the sound one gets when stringing two tin cans together with cotton twine.  It comes with Microsoft Works.  Microsoft Works may work fine for the home maker however, for business use it is a poor substitute for Microsoft's Office Suite or Open Office .Now let's add to the mix the fact that right out of the box there where issues.  A few little things like the preinstalled Microsoft Works Suite was not installed.  The Reinstallation CD was there but hmm.... How do you get it to the HD.?  (That was accomplished by copying to a memory stick but that is another story).  Then there was the issue of the video setup from THE FACTORY.  Let me just say it took another lump of my time to correct.  All the time the tech happy wife of mine is impatiently awaiting her new toy.  Well all is well and it is set up but what is the purpose? 

You see, she also has a great Dell lap top that she can go anywhere, connect to the internet at lightning speed, it has an 18 inch screen, a standard sized keyboard, great speakers (internal), an internal CD-R/DVDR player/recorder, 4 USB Slots and a pair of flash card slots.  Software, well with a 240 gig hard drive , 2400 mgs of DRAM she can run her Microsoft Office Suite, Adobe Photoshop, burn a CD while listening to net radio or conducting a web conference.  So can anyone explain to me why?

 Recently in attempting to describe the problem to another Broker, he informed me that he has several folks in his office either suffering from the same disorder, displaying the same addiction or who have fallen for the same sales pitch.  I for one tend to think of this issue as an addiction.  An addiction which really does nothing to change ones overall productivity picture:  A picture which still comes down to person to person, face to face and mouth to ear.  Without which nothing happens no matter how current you are in this tech happy world.

I think I am fairly tech savy as I try to read about what is coming on line either in hardware or changes in platforms, you know the typical "NEW STUFF".  Well, I've run across a couple of interesting services that believe it or not are FREE!  And if you are ever in need of them can come right off your phone wihich doesn't have to be a state of the art SMARTPHONE (a euphonism for a device that has more functions than you, the ultra smart, and cool consumer doesn't have the foggyist idea of how to utilize all the features that you had to have). 

The first of these is a FREE INFORMATION TELEPHONE NUMBER SERVICE!  It's easy to use, simply dial the number.  Listen to one borthersome ad that lasts less than 10 second, then follow the prompts.  As expected it asks for City and State, Then it asks if you want a Business, Governemnt or Residence, followed by the question of name.  Simple Huh!  The number you need to dial is 1-800-373-3411. 

The next little goody is one that just might come in handy if you don't have a GPS, or access to the internet while you are out in the real world getting lost.  It is named "DIRECTIONS".  It too has a series of questions such as City & State followed by address.  Then it will ask your starting point and again you provide several prompted responses.  Within about 15 seconds you'll receive a text message or several dependent on your phones capacity to receive text.  Now for those who want to READ about this free service you can go on line to www.dialdirections.com.  There you will find a brief video of how the product works.  But if you are willing to accept my word enter the following number in your cell and experience it immediately (this one has no commercials).  The number is 1-347-328-4667 or if you are visually challenged and have small numbers on your phone but bigger letters punch in DIRECTIONS.  I know that there are few other of these services out there, some for pay some not... But I know these work for me and I hope that you'll give them a try and find them as handy as I have.

So what do you do when your buyer is as dumb as a rock? OK, not everyone is a rocket scientist and these folks are first time buyers. But come on where does personal responsibility start.

The total story goes something like this.  You explain in detail trying to make the words no longer than 5 or 6 letters with only 2 syllables.  You provide them with a CD with characters speaking in English demonstrating through acting the entire process of home buying.  Why you even give them not just a flow sheet explaining what act follows the next in the buying process.  It also defines who is doing what where and when. What's more you even give them a check sheet that corresponds to the flow sheet so they will know who, what and were they are in the total process Single lined sheets with check sheets are suppose to be so easy a Chimp can learn to follow their course.) .  You even make the outrageous suggestion that they do not make any financed purchases until the home purchase is completed and they have taken ownership a myriad of times...  But when you inform them that the Buyer is requiring an additional $1,000 Ernest Money:  The one change in the counter, they run to their credit union and get a loan for the ERNEST MONEY!  No they don't take it out of available funds (savings and or 401K).  They simply take out a personal loan with a penalty clause and at an outlandish rate.  The loan is significantly high enough to cause the under writers heartburn!  Who then contact the loan office, who calls you asking what is going on?  You contact your client only to find out that they got the money as you had asked.  But just one small thing they listened to their Credit Union who sold them a loan rather than taking the money out of their available resources.  They took the word of an individual with in whom they had placed their trust.  Why Ms X at the Credit Union has been nice and kind to them for all these years and she wouldn't misdirect them.  Yeah sure..... Well, to make a very involved and detailed story short.  After reviewing their paperwork from their friend at the credit union: Funds were immediately transferred so as to absolve the recommended loan from the credit union, a letter written and prepared for the underwriter which specified the resolution of the new debt. The end of this story is not necessarily a happy one.  For despite all the running and straining to satisfy the delay was  enough to prevent the buyers to obtain the lock in on the loan before it jumped two points.  The deal has fallen through and although these good, hard working folks were able to get their Ernest money back they did not get the house they wanted and can't until the rate drops again so as to fit in their budget.  But with what I have been told lately the first time buyer programs offered in this market will be dead very shortly.  Leaving these good folks caught in that all too familiar position of having good credit, sufficient means to afford a modest house payment but falling short on funds for either closing or down payment.  The reason being they didn't listen when instructed to not make any purchases and they trusted a loan officer whose behavior was... shall I say questionable at best.  Of course this assumes that the buyers were straight with me in describing their interactions with the loan officer.  Perhaps their wait will be short, who knows but at least they now have raised their level of awareness above that of the common variety rock from which they came.

Of late I have noticed an ever increasing number of solicitations from every self appointed Real Estate Guru offering "OPPORTUNITIES" to increase my success in this slow and precarious market.  Now it may be just me and perhaps I am a bit jaded after having spent nearly 15 years in Real Estate.  Along with having attended many sales seminars and workshops with such well know super stars as Zeigler, Ferry, Cooper and others over the past 25 years. Regardless of this exposure I have endeavored to keep an open mind about all the folks who want to help me through their countless solicitations. 

Why I've even looked at much of the hype and assorted marketing approaches these "Latest and Greatest" spinners of "How To INCREASE YOUR PRODUCTIVITY" through buying my program, attending my seminar, applying my strategies and paying me a fee for a proven method that guarantees results to increase my sales, listings, shoe size and desirability by 100% within the life time of the Galapagos Tortoise. And you know what?  They haven't reinvented the wheel, the telephone, internet, radio, T.V. or any other item which one must use in marketing the product we call Real Estate!  Wow, was that as big a shock to you as it was to me?  All these promises to make me better than I am and not one has anything but a new and improved slick and glossy cover on the old tried and true approaches to SELLING!

Don't get me wrong, we all need the occasional refresher and if you are new to the business well you truly need all the helpful hints you can get.   But it seems to me that the best source  in your market are your peers or if things are so competitive you at least attend to what they are doing and then either adapt it to your needs or go in another direction.  I understand that there are those of us who lack the ability to think for themselves resulting in them falling into the clutches of the gurus.  But isn't it funny that when business goes south the self proclaimed know it alls come out.  Trolling the waters for the weak and vulnerable from which they gain their livelihood.  I realize that this brief commentary may draw the ire of some but it is just an observation based upon a review of my junk mail file: A review that that lead me to draw my personal conclusions.

Greetings and Happy New Years from what today one could call the deep freeze.  You see it is currently 24 degrees and windy but it is winter and considering this will last for only another day...well one need not complain too much since this is only the 4^th or 5^th cold event we've had in the past 12 months.  Speaking of which let me get to the 4^th quarter report.  Yep the ole end of year.  Because I don't wish to bore everyone to death with endless statistics for the entire year I'll restrict this commentary to the last quarter sales of single residences.

All the news is not doom and gloom particularly if you are a buyer but yes there are even rays of sunshine for sellers as well. To begin with total sales volume is off by 39.1% in Glynn County for the 4^th quarter. However, within that dismal statistic is one of those rays of sunshine.  The first of which is that sales grosses on the mainland are generally up by a modest 2% with the greatest increase being in Brunswick proper (B1).  Whereas on Saint Simons the South end seems to be doing just fine with selling prices being up a hair over 15%.  However, don't let this figure fool you.  You see Mid South, Mid North and North Saint Simons show a decrease in sales volume from 1 to 11.34%, so the pain isn't over there as of yet.  A bit of explanation is warranted regarding this increase in sales on the South end of Saint Simons.  You see it's pretty obvious sellers are generally accepting lower offers.  Offers which are averaging 10.6% below the asking price: Meaning the sellers in S-2 through S-4 are hanging closer to their asking price.  That could be due their not being in the position to wiggle as much for a variety of reasons.  Sellers on the mainland are taking an average of 3.5% less than the asking price with a range of 5 to 2.4% for all areas.

In summary the hot areas are North and West Glynn (G-2, G-3) and Mid North Saint Simons.  In each instance this trend holds true when compared to 2006 4^th quarter statistics.  So what does all this mean to you as a Buyer or a Seller?  As a Buyer it means that there are real values out there on Saint Simons and the Mainland.  Expect them to continue to drop for another quarter but don't expect Sellers to cut prices by major hunks.   An additional 2 to 3% reduction can be expected in Mid- South/North and North Saint Simons with S1 (South Saint Simons) remaining relatively stable.  Mainland areas will undoubtedly reflect a similar trend with Central and North Glynn being the least reflective of further price reductions. Whereas Western Glynn will follow this trend due to surpluses of new housing.  Overall properties in the $135,000 - $160,000 range along with those in the $190,000 - $250,000 range continue to be the most active.

Finally, I need to add to the mix a brief comment about lenders.  Local lenders continue to have ample monies for qualified buyers.  And yes, even if you are a first time buyer there continue to be viable programs to assist you in obtaining your first home.  But remember being qualified means, being employed with an adequate income, NO EXCESSIVE use of credit or bad credit.  Lastly, do yourself and your Realtor a favor go out and get yourself prequalified prior to beginning your search.  And for goodness sake be honest with yourself about what you can afford.  The best way to do that is to apply an old adage that my grandfather use to say "Is it a need or a want?  A need will grow and want will come back to haunt you".  Until next quarter, be well, be safe, be wise and behave.

Over the past few months I have posted several comments about BPO's.  Well here is another in which I am going to vent just a smidge.  The problem I have is not in doing them but the variation from one source to another.  You would think that whether it is vendor A or Vendor Z the criteria would be standard.  But as many of you know that is simply NOT the case.  Let me start with a few of the variations that I've seen. 

Company A requires Comp's to be no older than 90 days:  While company B will accept nothing less than 6 months.  Company C doesn't offer any guidance but screams if the comp is over 6 months old...go figure!  Next there is the issue of home styles traditional vs. a Bungalow or Cottage, Contemporary and so on.  Individual interpretation of these architectural styles varies on the training and experience of the individual on the other end resulting in the proverbial difference of opinion in which you as the provider will have to resolve if you want to be paid or the listing. This brings me to the issue of square footage, Company A permits a 10% variance while Company B and C respectively allow a 5 and 15% variance plus or minus.  Next we have the issue of the distance from the subject.  Within several blocks, is grand, 1 mile is maximum or is it 10 miles?  Oh and My favorite issue is the address... Yep, something as simple as the address particularly if it is a rural address with a Rural Route Number.  Have you ever tried to find one of those from the Post Office or 911 services which ever or in at least one case I recall it took both to figure out where a specific piece of "Wheelestate" was located.  But I guess the best one was when I had to call the developer, when neither the Post Office nor the 911 system could provide me an address other than the Rural Route Box.... Go Figure that one!

Here in Southeast Georgia many of the properties are located in rural areas where the closest comp may be miles away and may not have sold within any time limit that is acceptable to anyone.  I guess that all of these inconsistencies are due to the primary models for the majority of these companies are Urban and they are generated in geographic areas that are significantly more dense such as California, Denver Colorado or the Eastern Corridor. Whatever the case, it is somewhat daunting at times to know what is acceptable when dealing with the multiple firms that are dealing with all the foreclosures. 

At this point you are probably wondering "If BPO's are such a problem, why do you do them"?  The answer is totally related to the status of the current market.  With the current status of the market being soft, it is my belief that marketing foreclosures is an effective means of addressing the current condition.  As you may realize people with money and solid credit are continuing to purchase property. Plus you continue to have those folks who are continually looking for bargains and for sure they are out there. Meaning that the old adage could not be more appropriate at this time.  That Adage being "buy when the market is down" in doing so you will be well positioned when the recovery begins.  So having an inventory of good foreclosures will serve you well now and in the future.

I've just read the post by Gail Tassey out of Austin TX. after walking in on a conversation between two less experienced agents who were talking about the same thing that Gail presented in her Blog.  You know the drill "Now is a Great Time" to begin developing business for 2008. 

This entire approach that we have to start now doing something to bail ourselves out and get ahead tomorrow has always bothered me.  You see it clearly reflects the True American Business Model.  Don't get me wrong I am as American as home made apple pie.  But the problem I have with business models in this country is that they reflect short term statagies as opposed to a more enduring sophisticated approach to business development found in other cultures.  American business models are all about "Flash Dash, next week, next month, next quarter and at most next year.  Whereas other models approach business from a much longer perspective such as 3, 5 and 7 years (or in some instances significantly longer).  These long term strategists typically, lay out plans that are highly detailed, repetitive and consistent.  They, take into account that the average consumer can and does see need to see an object (like your name, your face) six to eight times delivering the same message over a span of time before they begin to recognize and accept the smallest portion of you and your message.

As in the case of the two less seasoned agents they were heavily into trying to get a WOW factor, a headline, some type of attention getting in a self promotional campaign.  Which is fine but they were planning for one BIG shot rather than the methodical, steady approach that builds reinforces and builds more. 

With the market being anywhere from to soft to quicksand many folks are looking for the big idea, act or attention getter.  But I would like to suggest to those of you who want to try and reinvent yourselves begin by looking at what you are currently doing that succeeds. Look at others who seem to be unaffected by these tenuous times and integrate what your perception of their success is into your plan. Then take that positive and add to it, in small increments being sure to bring redundancy into your strategy.  Yes, it may appear to be boring but remember your target does NOT even recognize you are aiming at them until one day the proverbial light bulb goes one.  I guess the point I am driving at here is adjust your thinking and your plan to look down the time line to something other than next week, or quarter.  Reestablish ongoing contacts through multiple forms of media over a lengthy term and somewhere down that road you probably will see the returns are greater that the momentary trill of the high visibility, high pressure pointed approach that satisfies one thing.... Your ego but does little to develop long term return business and relationships with current and potential clients which is the key to success during these times.

Greetings from the Golden Isles!  I know that this economic update for this area is earlier than you expected but with so much negativism in the National Media over the past week I thought that I would look at what has happen year to date and over the past quarter in the Golden Isles  and report to you.  Although I am no economic guru nor do I have the ability to see into some magic crystal ball that allows me to make economic predictions.... Hey... some days I have trouble seeing beyond my nose.  But seriously I believe that information is the answer for those of you who are wondering what to do regarding your Real Estate needs during this time of economic uncertainty.  So below you'll find my modest attempt at providing you with real information about here in the Golden Isles.

In beginning my search for trends I thought it would be prudent to look into the local lending arena.  In doing so I checked several sources locally and nationally.  Believe or not they all reported basically the same thing.  That being there is more than adequate money available for QUALIFIED buyers.  My probe also revealed interest rates were NOT sky rocketing into uncharted universes.  Far from it I found rates to be well within the reasonable range from 6.70% to 7.85%.  Variance in rate seems to be dictated by the type of loan as well as the credit worthiness of the borrower (nothing new there).  The primary issue seems to be who will be given access to the plentiful money.  In a nut shell anyone that has money to put into a property that has a solid credit history and a debt to income ratio below 37% (You have to have breathing room). So those who are walking the line may be required to have more money than those who are will within the limits!  Hmm... sounds like I am at odds with the national media, perhaps so but hey I'm just reporting what is happening here in the Golden Isles.

Next you'll find a brief overview of the statistical information available to each and every Realtor in The Golden Isles closing with my interpretation of that information.  To begin with let's look at Single Family Residential Sales for the past quarter and year to date. At this time November 2007 there are currently 1539 Single Family Residences on the market which is roughly a 12 month supply.  Add to that an additional 470 condominiums /townhouses and one can readily see we're loaded with inventory.  Continuing to look at the gross statistics we find that residential sales are down 41%, while days on market have increased by 5.5% to an average of 164 days. In response to the increase in days to sell asking and selling prices have decreased by 6% resulting in nearly a 3 % reduction in accepted selling price.  Land sales appear to be retaining their strength in dollar amount; volume is off by 60% which came from  a decrease in sales of developed land.  But this trend it primarily due to the significant decrease in new developments which entered the market in 2006.

Next I've looked at the market as related to Saint Simons Island vs. Glynn County /Brunswick excluding Brantley, Ware, Wayne, Bryan, McIntosh & Camden Counties as well as Jekyll Island.  I excluded these from this comparison simply due to the fact that the majority of reported sales occur in Glynn County (Mainland)/Brunswick and Saint Simons Island and I am simply curious about that dynamic.  Overall single family residential sales are down year to date for the Mainland (as identified) and Saint Simons by 32.2%. Breaking this down even further you find that the down turn on Saint Simons is 30.5% whereas on the mainland it is off 22.9%.  But here comes a conundrum when one looks at the third quarter exclusively one finds that "the mainland " as previously defined shows a significant increase of 10.66% whereas Saint Simons reflects a continued down turn of 34%. Further dissection of the numbers reveals that the majority of sales are coming from the homes in the $120,000 to $299,900 range with the highest frequency in the $200,000 to $299,999 range.  The overall income demographic for this area would tend to support this fact in relation to the income range of those moving into and up in this area.

In conclusion it is my considered opinion that at this time we will continue to see a decrease in selling prices on Saint Simons Island due to the apparent over abundance of properties which are over priced by at least an additional 10+%.  The market on the mainland appears to be growing in the under $299,999 range with the highest concentration of sales occurring in the $200,000 to $299,999 area. The only problem here is that due to the perceived down turn builders are not building spec housing in this range so expect a shortage in this range to occur during the second quarter of 2008.

Land values are fairly stable and supplies are dwindling meaning negotiations will become more difficult as sellers hold firm on pricing in this diminishing commodity. Those of you who wish to obtain waterfront or marsh view properties are not going to find any bargains with these type properties for the same reason as with undeveloped land.   That being availability which remains limited. Monies from local lenders are readily available for first time buyers as well as seasoned buyers with stable credit.  Credit scores will need to be good and debt to income ratios will have to be under the 37% cap placed on Loan to value ratios.  In short the market in the Golden Isles continues to out perform the national trend.  Yes, there certainly has been some change but not to the extent projected by the media.  Our market appears to headed towards a turn around in mid priced housing. However, upper end (above $300,000) housing will continue to be slow which may result in some buying opportunities for those who are liquid. 

Over the past year I have become increasingly involved in doing BPO's and although at times they can be a real pain to do for not much money.  I have developed a fairly good relationship with three companies.  I have been able to negotiate an acceptable fee structure and during these recent slack times I've kept myself occupied with two to three a week.  Although most are validation reports I have been able to pick up around 30% of them as fresh listings which fortunately I have been able to dispose of in relatively short order. 

As those of you who do BPO's know sometimes the areas you go into are not the best and you can have an interesting experience.  Two days ago I received a request for one of those 24 hour turn around BPO which simply was a drive by, exterior with one shot of the front, address verification and a street scene.  The property was located out in a rural part of the county in a high growth area.  So I pulled the property records and saw that it was a relatively new property (Built in 2003) that it set on slightly over an acre.  I pulled up Google Earth and looked at the Arial and it looked nice but it was isolated and off the highway about 150 yards down a paved circular drive.  So I immediately knew I could not just drive by.  I'd have to drive onto the property, get out of my car and snap at least 1 picture. 

 You have to realize that this is South East Georgia and if this property was occupied; the current owners apparently had an issue with their lender and might be less than friendly to a stranger.  So being somewhat familiar with the ways of the world I put on a shoulder hoister with a 40 cal semi-auto, a lanyard with my ID (with picture), grabbed my camera and leave my home about 7 am headed to the assignment. 

I arrive at the address, get out of my car camera in hand walk to the front door, and knock....No response.  All the windows were closed, no lights were on and no cars were in the drive.  So I snap a couple of pictures of the front and since I was out of the car I thought I might as well get as many different angle of the property as I could.  I eventually moved to the back of the house.  As I rounded the corner I saw a dump truck, an excavator and a pickup in an area several hundred feet from the boundry of the property.  I wave and go on about my business.  A few minutes later as I am working my way around the house I hear a vehicle coming up from behind.  Out jumps this rather large man, hollering "Who are you; State Your Business and What are you doing on my Land."  Not wanting to cause a major confrontation I turned slowly allowing the gentleman to see that I was armed and at least appeared to be some sort of official ID.  I then closed the area between the two of us, speaking in a calm voice as I approached.  Although it was apparent that he was highly agitated he did stop and listen to my explanation.  I gave him a card along with the name of the company and my contact there for verification.  He was somewhat befuddled for their request for the photos since he stated that there was no delinquency that he was aware of.  I informed him that was not my issue all I was doing was a BPO for this company and part of the process required photographs which in this case required me coming onto the property since the house could not be seen form the highway. He appeared to understand and we parted.  Fortunately I avoided a potentially bad situation for what reasons I really am not sure, perhaps it was the fact that I was obviously armed and had official appearing ID, or perhaps it was the unaroused manner in which I spoke to the gentleman.  This event got me to wondering if others in the AR community who did BPO's have had a close call or two?  If so what was it and how did you handle it?

 

Well Labor Day is upon us and many areas of the country will see a further decrease in the market for afterall the "Season" is over.  So would someone please help me understand what the season is?  Selling is selling!  Meaning at least to me that you have a product that is available and you simply want to find someone who wants it.  Sure there are times when there are more potential buyers but just because the season is ending doesn't mean we should work any less harder.  No, in fact we need to redouble our effrts since the target becomes smaller. 

So if you are like the millions of Americans who will be traveling this Labor Day in an effort to get one last breath of fresh air.  Go for it but return to the fight in a few days with a new focus and energy directed at keeping yourself and your products out front and center for all to see.