I have been a Realtor since 1980 and over a long period in my real estate career this was an easy question to answer.  During the late 1980's and 90's, you could expect an average of about a 3% increase in your home value per year depending on the location, condition, year built , etc.  Beginning in 2003, this all changed with an artificial rise in residential prices; not values.  Based on the sales prices of homes today, the real value of your home now is more closely aligned with home prices in 2002.    

"I WISH I HADDA......"  Or another way of putting it "Hind sight is 20-20".   In the late 90s and prior to the recent drop of real estate values, I often heard people say I wish I'd bought some beach property back in the 1980's and 90's.  Given the realities of today's economy, we know that the prices of beach properties have gone down.   But, looking back, we can all wish we would have taken advantage of opportunities in purchasing real estate.  The secret is knowing when to buy.  No one really knows what tomorrow has in store for us.  However, like a weatherman making predictions based on their indicators and experience, we can likewise make some educated projections. 

Our Tallahassee Metro Area (TMA - 5 surrounding counties)  median sales prices have done much better than the rest of the State of Florida averages.  In our area, we are staying close to the National averages.  Just a little refresher; the "median price" is half way between the lowest and the highest price.  The "average price" is just that, the average.  In 2009 the TMA average "resale homes" sold price was $198,719 and the median was $174,700.   Our median sales price has been about the same as the National median at $175,000 for the past eight months and the State-wide has been below $150,000.  In January there was the usual dip in the number of sales as in previous years with an upturn expected in March.  While this dip was 16% less than in 2009, our median sales price was 12% higher, which was the highest increase in the State of Florida.

In December 2008 in Leon County there were 4 single family homes with 1400 to 1600 square feet, 2 car garage and no pool that sold for an average price of $172,000.  In July 2009 there were 27 like homes that sold for an average price of $179,000 and in December, 2009, 14 homes sold for an average price of $186,000........that is an 8% increase in 1 year!  This is a VERY POSITIVE sign for our Tallahassee real estate market.  KEEP IN MIND that this is not an across the board increase.  For 2008 in Leon County (not the TMA) there were 1850 single family homes that sold with an average sales price of $242,600 and a median sales price of $203,500.  In 2009, 1802 single family homes sold at an average price of $216,800 (10.6% decrease) and a median price of $185,000 (9% decrease).  So why the huge difference between the overall single family home decrease and the 8% increase in the model of a home described above?  In 2009, 57% of all the homes sold in Leon County sold for an average price of no more than $200,000.  A 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home with a 2 car garage, under $200,000 is the most popular home model.

 As to why the Tallahassee area has faired much better than most parts of the State, I think of two primary reasons.  One is our job base with the Capitol, FSU, FAMU, TCC and numerous other institutions' of education beyond high school.  Second is that Tallahassee, although a great place to live with a wealth of attractions to enjoy, is not considered a major tourist destination with a high demand of resort type real estate such as Naples and Destin where the bottom fell out, leaving a huge inventory of homes clogging the market.

 So........is it time for you to buy a home?  The Tallahassee home market is relatively stable with homes priced below (approximately) $300,000.  Homes in this price range are, as a rule priced fairly.  Mortgage interest rates are at record lows.  However, are the rates going to stay this low for long?  With several indicators pointing to market stabilization, it's very possible that interest rates will begin to rise.  If not soon, the only way they will go is up, eventually.

 So if you are waiting for the prices to come down......you just may be losing out, not only with a possible higher mortgage payment with a higher home price, or even a lower home price with a higher interest rate; but,  the joy of owning your own Home.

I'm busy and other Realtors I have contacted this weekend have been busy.  Buyers from out of town have been contacting me; parents are looking to buy a condo for their kids for college.   Some buyers that have been waiting for the "right" time may realize it is passing, or has passed them by.  There are plenty of great buys and sellers are ready to do what they need to do.  It appears that mortgage interest rates are climbing a little each week......."What goes Up will go Down and what goes Down will go Up".....look at gas prices too.  College parents know they have to get their kids a place to live for early August and families needing to get settled before the local K to 12 schools open in August, as well.  Maybe all the current "busy" is also being stimulated by the procrastinators that suddenly realize that their time is short for that "buy of a life-time".  

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    www.tallahassee-area-homes.com

We had the usual increase in real estate home sales in May in Tallahassee (Leon County), though fewer than May last year.  There were 153 single family homes sold compared with last year‘s195.  122 homes sold in April; so, our sales in May was a 25% increase.  In May the average single family home in Leon County sold for $224,099, and the average listed price was $237,835.  Therefore the average home sold for 94% of the asking price.  The median sales price for May was $179,000.  The median sales price is what most published homes sales reports use for comparisons.  That is the reason why some buyers coming to Tallahassee find our prices are higher than what they have read about.  The average days on the market was 131 days based on the last listed price.  If a listing is removed from the market and re-entered as a new listing, the days on the market starts ticking anew; therefore, the actual days a home is on the market is likely to be higher.   There are currently 201 homes under contract that are contingent upon likely either inspections or financing.  Additionally there are 137 that are (pending) about to close. The number of currently listed single family homes on the market for sale in Leon County is 1,733.  You don't have to be a mathematical wizard to recognize at the rate homes are selling, it will take a considerable time to bring that number down.  Sellers, working with their Realtor, need to do everything possible to improve the attractiveness of their home in the market place to attract buyers.  Primarily, pricing it to current market conditions. IT MUST BE THE BEST BUY.  It is expected that in the next several months we will see further increases in the number of homes sold before the normal seasonal slow-down begins in September. 

 I frequently have been asked recently if we have bottomed.... "I think those properties that are on the market for under $400,000 are about at the bottom if they are priced were they should be in this market. For a buyer planning to purchase a home to live in, if he does not buy very soon, I think he will be "missing the boat".  Interest rates are very low and there are great dollar incentives for the first time home buyers.  Interest rates seem to be headed up and there is a deadline on the availability of the incentives. 

The Florida Association of Realtors has just released the April Single-Family Resale Sales report.  The Tallahassee Metro Area (TMA includes Leon, Wakulla, Franklin, Jefferson, and Gadsden counties) reported a decrease of 28% of number or sales compared to April 2008.  While this may sound bad, the January and February decreases were close to 40% and last April had a 29% decrease compared to 2007.  The worse number of sales decrease in the State was Gainesville Metro Area with a 40% decrease.  On the other hand, TMA had the best Median Sales Price comparison in the entire State with a decrease of 4% followed by Gainesville and Pensacola's 9% decrease.  Our median sales price in April was $182,000 and the State's average price was $138,500.  The Tallahassee Metro Area median sales price is higher than that of the National average of $170,200 and a lot higher than the State's over-all average.  Our values are continuing to hold better than most parts of the State. 

Looking at Leon County in April 2009 the number of sales of 104 single family resale homes was 23% less than last April, the average sales price of $231,256 was 5.6% less and our median sales price of $185,750 was 6.6% less than for April 2008.

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    www.tallahassee-area-homes.com

Have you ever met a sales person that told you otherwise?  No matter what the item is....a car, house, appliance, TV, etc......"if you don't buy today you will regret it later."  Yep, I am a salesman as well; but, I am a believer in informing the customer and letting them make the decision that best fits their personal situation.  Yes, even those that purchased a home at the peak of the market it was the right time for many of them for their personal needs. 

I have been sort of laying low in recent months in encouraging prospective buyers wanting to buy a home to do so; but, unsure if it was the right time.  Everyone would like to "buy low and sell high" and we know that does not always work.  Have the home prices bottomed-out, are interest rates going to get any lower and most important how secure is my job/business.  There is a saying that I think fits the current real estate market:  "Some People Make Things Happen, Some Watch Things Happen, while Others Sit around and Wonder What Happened".  So which one are you going to be?

 There are three things I saw in today's (Sunday) Tallahassee Democrat newspaper that might help you make your decision as to is it the right time.  On the front page was the news that pink slips have been sent out to State workers as a result of cut backs due to necessary legislative action.  In the Business section there is a chart showing that the consumer confidence index rose for the third straight month.  In the Real Estate Weekly the Consumer Mortgage Information page showed that interest rates remain below 5%.  Keep in mind when you see or read about interest rates, always look to see how many "points" are associated with the given rate.

 THE LIKELYHOOD is that interest rates will not get any lower and there have been signs of them creeping up.  The home prices right now are about where they should be with a typical normal 3% annual rate.  If home prices still go down a little and interest rates go up you are no better off.....it all balances out.  The last report of the percentage of jobless was down slightly.  It is becoming more frequent to see companies reporting a profit in the business section.  National economists are predicting a turn-around in the economy before the end of the year.

 For many of you, particular those that can benefit from "Stimulus" incentives, that have been waiting for the right time......"Now Is The Time".

 Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    www.tallahassee-area-homes.com

Our March sales of single family resale homes were down -22% compared with March 2008, which was the worse in the State.  So what!  They were down -37% in February and -31% in January.  In March 2008 the sales were down -29% compared with the previous year.  So, in reality, -22% looks pretty good and our March sales were up 60% from February.  Our Median Sales Price in March of this year compared with last March WAS THE BEST IN THE STATE!   Our median sales price was down -3% compared to the overall States -30%.  That is good news which the news media frequently overlook.  The fact of the matter is that in a lot of areas in the State, houses are being dumped........Ft Myers- Cape Coral sales increased 192% in March and their median price was down -58%.  We have the most stable real estate market in the State.  Our number of existing single family homes on the market is decreasing.  We are steady on our normal track for this time of year......with fewer sales.  While many local sellers feel that they are taking a great loss to get their home sold, they really do not realize how good they have it compared to much of the rest of the State.  Local buyers need to understand their purchase of a home here is a lot safer investment and those buyers purchasing homes where they are being dumped in other parts of the State.  Have you ever made a purchase of a discounted item that shortly thereafter it was further reduced?  It is all about VALUE.

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc. Tallahassee Real Estate N Data Services, 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    Search the entire Tallahassee Area Real Estate Market.

Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc. has already successfully provided two well attended, free to the public, real estate educational seminars in 2009.

Their third Seminar, titled "Housing Stimulus:  Short Sales, Foreclosures, $8000 Tax Credit?"  will be held Tuesday, April 28, 2009, at the Tallahassee Board of Realtors, 1029 Thomasville Rd.   This Seminar features respected Tallahassee real estate attorney, Susan Thompson, of Smith, Thompson, Shaw, & Manausa, as key speaker.  Also appearing on the program will be well-known CPA, Rick Carroll, with  Carroll and Company, addressing tax issues.   Q&A session will follow, so prepare your questions! 

You don't want to miss this one!  We invite you to put this event on your calendar and plan to attend.   Seating is limited, so please register early by calling 850-386-6160 or go to the Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin web site.  We look forward to seeing you there.    

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc. Tallahassee Real Estate N Data Services, 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    Search the entire Tallahassee Area Real Estate Market.

We are all aware there were a lot of real estate investors that made a lot of money buying and reselling, and frequently before construction was completed.  Those were the ones that were really knowledgeable of the market; or maybe, just plain lucky.  Then there were those that just got caught-up in the frenzy, didn't know when to get out, when the getting was good and got stuck with a lot of liability.  There are a lot of them particularly in the State of Florida.  When it gets to a point where they cannot, or elect not to continue to pour more money into a seemingly investment gone badly they look for a way out.  If they already have a loan on the property and cannot sell it, they consider just letting the bank/lender foreclose.  Then the lender gets property they do not want.  If the Investor contracted on a property to be built with a deposit, they may consider just walking away from the deal and breaking their contract likely forfeiting their deposit.  And the developer gets the property back that they do not want.

Compared to the Stock Investor, the Real Estate Investor seems to have it pretty good.  In both cases of purchasing and getting a loan or contracting with a deposit, the Real Estate Investor has paid out a small fraction of the total cost of the property and can get out with only the loss of a fraction of the total property purchase/contracted price.  In purchasing stock you pay the total cost up front and it is yours no matter whether it goes up or down in value.  And like the Real Estate Investor you buy it with either the knowledge or belief that it will go up in value and make you a good profit.  But you cannot just give it back to your stock broker or get him to pay you back all or part of your loss should the value go down.  On the other hand if the value went up you would not share your profit with your stock broker or the Real Estate Investor with his Realtor. 

  The Real Estate Investor that puts down a deposit on a contract for a property to be completed in the future is much like the Stock Investor that invests in the Futures Market.  Here the investor has a margin account with the brokerage firm.  He buys a number of shares of stock paying only a fraction of the cost of the total value, again like real estate with the knowledge or belief that the value will go up.  Unlike a real estate investment......there is no walking away if the value goes down only losing the fractional value.  Your margin account is insured by ALL YOUR ASSETS.

 Whether it be a real estate or stock investment there is no assurance that the investment will be profitable.  In both.....IT IS A GAMBLE.

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc., 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    www.tallahassee-area-homes.com

The news you read and see on television about the housing market and getting a mortgage to purchase a home is NATIONAL NEWS.  Yes we have large supply of homes available to purchase in the Tallahassee area and we also have lenders that HAVE PLENTY OF MONEY to loan for a home purchase to those that qualify.  The days of the "easy money" from a lender are yesterday's poor business practice.

The general economic turmoil of our country has created a lot of misinformation and resulting confusion regarding the real estate market and our very healthy lenders in the Tallahassee area.   Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin will be giving educational seminars in 2009 to alleviate some of that confusion and share factual information applicable to our local real estate market.  The first in the series will be about home mortgages and all about obtaining financing for a home purchase or refinancing your current home.  Thursday January 22 is the date for the first seminar entitled "Mortgage Money and Lots of It".  You can easily register by call 850-386-6160 or online at the Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin web site.   You need to register since seating is limited and refreshments will be provided. 

The seminar will be held at the Tallahassee Board of Realtors at 1029 Thomasville Road from 6 to 7:30.  There will be panel of loan experts from BB&T, Ingle Mortgage, Capital City Bank, Peoples First and Premier Bank. 

The seminars are planned as educational for you and ARE NOT SELLING oriented.  Neither your registration nor your attendance will be used as a prospect to contact.  

There will be opportunity for Q&A during the session, so come prepared with all your questions! 

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc. Tallahassee Real Estate N Data Services, 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    Search the entire Tallahassee Area Real Estate Market.

The following is a five year review of the Tallahassee Metro Area single family detached homes, both new and resale, beginning with the third quarter of 2003.  Up to this quarter our real estate market in the Tallahassee area was very stable. The average median appreciation was between 2% to 7%, the supply of homes and number of sales holding a parallel amount and a usual time on the market of about sixty days.  Everything stayed in good balance through the end of the third quarter of 2005 except for the median appreciation which ended 2003 with 10% and rose to 18% in 2005.  Greed had entered the real estate market place in the 2003 through 2005 period with investors aplenty.  Stocks had lost their luster beginning in about 2000 with the fall of the dot coms and real estate had always been a very good investment.  So everyone joined in the buying frenzy to move up to a bigger home, buying a vacation home, rental properties and just speculating by buying and putting property back on the market at a higher price or just contracting and "flipping" for a quick profit.  The wise investor got out of the real estate market in 2005.  The ones that did not, you know the rest of that story.  Since the end of the third quarter of 2005 the number of homes for sale has doubled while the number of sells has dropped more than half.  The median appreciation dropped to 8% in 2006, 2% in 2007 and so far in 2008 it has dropped about - 7%.  The supply of available homes has increased about five fold which is over a years supply.  While the number of homes on the market has leveled out since the end of the second quarter of 2007, the number of homes sold has continued to drop during this period.  Additionally, there are more homes coming on the market every day and fewer buyers.  It is a great buyers market with plenty to select from, great interest rates and plenty of home mortgage money.

Don Pickett, Realtor, Coldwell Banker Hartung and Noblin, Inc. Tallahassee Real Estate N Data Services, 850-591-4725, donpick@aol.com    Search the entire Tallahassee Area Real Estate Market.