The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.
Sales of homes in the new construction and re-sale market segments are down a bit from the previous month but that is probably just the effect of seasonality that we historically observe.
Unit sales of homes in both market segments are expected to be lower in 2009 than in any of the previous five years.
The average selling price is down slightly in both market segments but that is due to a shift toward more affordable homes.
We can see that the average price per square foot of living area is up slightly in both market segments indicating that home values have not diminished and owner equity has remained relatively constant.
The next two charts examine absorption rates for new construction and for the re-sale market segments. We can see that overall, new construction has a 5.4 month supply of inventory given the year to date average absorption rate. The re-sale market segment has a 5.5 month supply. Segmenting this information further by price range, we can see that with respect to new construction, it is a seller's market for all price ranges below $350K. (Below $100K a 54 month supply shows. This I believe, is anomolous because homes in this price range just came onto the market and weren't available for most of the year leading to the low absorption rate of 0.1 homes/month.) The supply of homes priced over $350K exceeds the demand. In these price ranges there is about a years supply. While there is over 10-months supply of new homes priced over $400K, at 6 homes sold per month more than 15% of homes sold in the parish are in this price range.
In the re-sale market segment, nearly 80% of all homes sold in the parish are priced below $250K. The highest velocity of home sales is for homes priced between $151K and $200K. Over 17-months supply exists for homes priced over $400K.
As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.
The data used in this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.
As 2009 comes to a close the real estate market in Ascension Parish is continuing to resist the gloom haunting other markets in the country and is, in fact, showing signs of growth. The following chart shows monthly unit sales for the past several years. For September 2009, sales of previously owned homes exceeded sales in that market segment in both July and August of this year and approached sales in June 2009 which was the highest so far this year. While new construction unit sales didn't perform as well as the previously owned market segment for September 2009, it significantly outperformed new construction sales in September 2008. This is not surprising since both the new and re-sale market segments were hard hit by the devastation caused by hurricane Gustav last year. That said, new construction unit sales last month outperformed all other months in 2008 except for the month of July.
Using the average absorption rates observed so far this year, unit sales of the new construction market segment is projected to exceed 2008 levels. Unit sales for the re-sale market segment is projected to be only slightly less than that of 2008. Clearly, while less robust than the boom post-Katrina times, the real estate market in Ascension parish is showing remarkable signs of health despite the current difficulties we face in acquiring credit.
The next two charts show historical trends of average selling price and average selling price per square foot for both market segments.
We can see that in the resale market segment, neither the average price nor the average price per sq.ft. have changed substantially from 2008 levels. This indicates that the equity in our residential real estate investment has weathered the economic downturn quite well. In the new construction segment, however, we see a downward shift toward more affordable housing... a trend previously reported on toward smaller homes with fewer upgrades and amenities.
The next two charts show the absorption rates and inventory levels for the two market segments. In the new construction segment, there is only a 3.3 month supply of new homes overall. This is a Seller's Market. A Buyer's Market condition exists only for homes priced over $400K. The highest velocity of home sales exists in the $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 65% of all new homes sold this year.
The previously owned market segment shows the highest velocity of sales in the same $150K-$250K price range which accounts for 51% of home sales. In fact, home sales under $250K accounted for 73% of all homes sold. Overall, it is a neutral market with 6.4 months supply but there is a great variation in this figure as we look at various price ranges. Previously owned homes over $400K have sold at a rate of 1.6 homes per month. With 60 homes on the market, at this rate it will take more than three years so sell off this inventory. At the other end of the spectrum, homes priced under $250K are enjoying robust sales and it is a Seller's Market in these price ranges.
As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.
Waterfront Jewel!! This home is loaded with amenities and features so you can enjoy the privacy and benefits of waterfront living in style. What a great first or second home or investment income property.
With seventy five percent of 2009 in the past, I took a snapshot of sales for detached single family homes in the nine parish Greater Baton Rouge Metro area. In addition to segmenting the data by parish, I also separated new construction from re-sale or previously owned homes. The data were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. The data are presumed accurate but are not warranted.
The next three charts show unit sales, average selling price and average selling price/sq.ft. for new construction in each of the nine parishes for each year since 2004. Unit sales in 2009 are projected by assuming the same absorption rates for the remainder of 2009.
New Construction
In terms of unit sales we can see that in 2009 new construction is up significantly in Ascension parish, up a little in Livingston and West Baton Rouge parishes, and down or zero in all remaining parishes.
In general, we can see a drop in the average selling price of newly constructed homes.
The average selling price/sq.ft. in Ascension has been significantly lower in 2009 when compared to 2008. This reflects a shift toward more affordable new construction in Ascension. In East Baton Rouge and Livingston parishes, where there were significant levels of new construction sales, the selling price/sq.ft. was maintained at similar levels. In West Baton Rouge Parish, the average selling price/sq.ft. actually increased.
Previously Owned Homes
The next three charts show unit sales, average selling price and average selling price/sq.ft. for previously owned homes.
Unit sales for this market segment have remained relatively steady in 2009 as compared to 2008.
If one looks at both the average price and average price/sq.ft. charts for re-sale homes, we can see that, in general, home values are holding. While our 401Ks may have suffered, the equity we have in our homes may not have appreciated but neither have they lost much, if any, value.
As always, I appreciate hearing from readers and I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement that you may offer.
Don Stern | Coldwell Banker Mackey Co. | (225) 413-3624
21136 Diversion Canal Rd, Maurepas, LA
Three Rivers Island cottage with water view and waterfront access
2BR/2BA Single Family House
offered at $123,000
Year Built
2006
Sq Footage
954
Bedrooms
2
Bathrooms
2 full, 0 partial
Floors
1
Parking
None
Lot Size
6,625 sqft
HOA/Maint
$25 per month
DESCRIPTION
This cottage features wide-open living area with outstanding views. Watch the boats go by on the Diversion Canal from your 24 x 8 porch. Private tranquil island with golf cart access from the parking area. Community pool on the island.
The following analysis is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. Only data for detached single family (DSF) dwellings were considered.
Two thirds of the way through 2009, the market for homes in Ascension parish is quite healthy. My own experience and conversations with other real estate professionals point to
finance as the biggest obstacle in the way of further market expansion. That said, our market is, for the most part, vibrant and has weathered the national economic downturn quite well.
The first four charts below present unit sales information in a variety of ways. The first chart plots unit sales of new homes and previously owned homes on a monthly basis since January 1, 2004. The light green line shows overall monthly sales while the heavy green line shows the six month moving average.
The next chart aggregates the data by year and, for 2009, the a simple linear projection is made of what 2009 year-end sales will be. Year-to-date sales through August were calculated then divided by 8 months to get the monthly average and then multiplied by 12 to project year-end unit sales. This chart shows that, overall, 2009 should outperform 2008 with 1217 sales versus 1116 in 2008. New construction sales are responsible for the increase with a projected 491 sales versus 359 in 2008. Sales of previously owned homes are projected to be a bit less in 2009, 726 in 2009 versus 757 in 2008.
The next two charts illustrate monthly sales. The first shows new construction and we see that, as has been typical throughout the year, sales of new construction in 2009 has outperformed the same month in 2008.
The next two charts illustrate the absorption of homes in Ascension Parish by price range and compares absorption rates to current inventory to project the months supply of inventory. A market with 5.5 to 6.5 months supply is generally considered a neutral market... The supply and demand are reasonably balanced. A market with less than 5.5 months supply is generally considered to be a Seller's Market while a market with more than 6.5 months supply is said to be a Buyer's Market.
The first chart shows the absorption statistics for new construction. Overall, we have a Seller's Market condition with only 3.4 month supply. In fact, only homes priced over $350K are experiencing a Buyer's Market. The highest velocity of new home sales is for homes priced between $150K and $200K. Forty percent of all new homes sold in the parish during 2009 have been in this price range.
In the previously owned market segment, there is overall a 6.7 month supply... just slightly in Buyer's Market territory. Upon closer examination, however, we can see that this is due to an oversupply of more expensive homes. Homes priced over $300K account for 34% of the inventory but only 14% of home sales. Homes priced below $300K are generally moving well with respect to inventory.
As always comments and/or suggestions for improvements are welcomed.
An article in the August 10th issue of the Baton Rouge Businees Report
discussed the competing interests of the owners of Alligator Bayou Tours
and companies that sell wetland mitigation credits to support development. The article goes on to tell of two pending lawsuits in the parish regarding
the basin.
I've taken my grandchildren on the Alligator Bayou tour have thoroughly enjoyed the experience. As a Realtor®, I have also benefited from
development so I have mixed emotions over the controversy.
Recently, there have been a number of articles in the media about the rising number of foreclosures. Indeed, three of the real estate transactions
that I am currently working myself are for bank owned properties. Unlike some other areas of the country, the Greater Baton Rouge real
estate market has not seen a dramatic drop in home prices which is common for areas with an increasing number of bank foreclosures.
I was thinking about this apparent contradiction on the way home from church this morning and decided to do some analysis.
I extracted a subset of data from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS system. That subset included Residential properties (homes) which were
identified as REO (Real Estate Owned or Bank Owned) properties which were listed between January 1, 2004 and August 23, 2009. In my opinion,
some interesting things came out of my analysis. I created two charts both shown below. The first shows the number of bank foreclosures listed
in the MLS over the time period examined.
In the period between 1/1/2004 and 5/31/2005, an average of about 116 bank owned properties were listed each month. Since 6/1/2005 that average dropped
to 68 homes per month. Other observations are that in May of 2005 the number of bank owned listings spiked to 216. In the months after Hurricane
Katrina the number of foreclosed homes listed dropped substantially. I would hypothesize that, after Katrina, the demand for housing was so
high that people were able to sell their homes prior to being foreclosed upon. The rate of bank owned listings being added to the system
has remained lower than that observed prior to June 2005.
The second chart examines the same data set but further restricts it to just those REO properties in the Tri-Parish Area (Ascension,
East Baton Rouge, and Livingston Parishes.)
It appears to this author like all three parishes follow the same overall trends. Ascension and Livingston see foreclosure listings added at
about the same rate. The anomalous spike in May 2005 was less pronounced in Ascension than in either Livingston or East Baton Rouge Parishes.
In conclusion, I would venture the opinion that foreclosures have not had the impact upon home prices in our area that other areas of our
country have seen. Furthermore, since the rate of foreclosed listings remains low, I would not expect additional downward pressure on prices
directly due to foreclosures. I do believe that downward pressure in our area is do more to the indirect effect that national foreclosures have
had upon the availability of credit.
I would be very interested to hear different interpretations of these observations and would welcome comments.
Tri-Parish New Construction Real Estate Market Report
Through July 2009
This post deals with new construction in the tri-parish (Ascension, East Baton Rouge, and Livingston) area. The data used for this report were extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. Only data relating to detached single family (DSF) homes were extracted. For sales data new construction data were identified as those records having a status of New, Under Construction or Proposed Construction. Current inventory for new construction included only those records having a status of New or Under Construction.
Looking at the next three charts we can see the average selling price per square foot of living area for each of the three parishes. In 2009, new construction in Ascension parish sold for an average of $114.87/sq.ft. which is down 4.6% from 2008 where the price per square foot peaked at $120.37/sq.ft. In East Baton Rouge parish new construction sold for $130.25/sq.ft. in 2009 which is up $1.05 from sales in 2008. Livingston parish saw a modest decline in the price of new construction of $0.48/sq.ft. from a high of $105.05/sq.ft. in 2008 to $104.57/sq.ft. in 2009. A statistically negligible decline.
Ascension Parish New Construction Pricing
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East Baton Rouge Parish New Construction Pricing
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Livingston Parish New Construction Pricing
The next three charts show the new construction breakdown in each of the three parishes by subdivision.
Ascension Parish Top Selling Subdivisions
East Baton Rouge Parish Top Selling Subdivisions
Livingston Parish Top Selling Subdivisions
Looking at these three charts we can see that, while the type of home sold in the parish has shifted toward one costing less per square foot, Ascension Parish was home to three of the top five selling subdivisions in terms of unit sales. The top five subdivisions were as follows:
Parish
Subdivision
2009 Unit Sales
Ascension
Pecan Ridge
34
East Baton Rogue
Lakes at Jamestown
33
Ascension
Keystone of Galvez
26
Ascension
Gateway Cove
21
Livingston
Lake at Grays Creek
21
Anyone wishing to discuss this analysis in more detail or to request additional analyses are encouraged to contact me. Additionally, I welcome any comments or suggestions for improvement.
Don Stern | Coldwell Banker Mackey Co. | (225) 413-3624
38528 LA Hwy 74, Gonzales, LA
Starter Home or Investment Property
3BR/2BA Single Family House
offered at $149,900
Year Built
2004
Sq Footage
1,231
Bedrooms
3
Bathrooms
2 full, 0 partial
Floors
1
Parking
Unspecified
Lot Size
11,250 sqft
HOA/Maint
$0 per month
DESCRIPTION
Five years young, this Acadian style home is perfect as a starter home or as an investment property. Bedrooms and living room have wood laminate floors and the wet areas have ceramic tile flooring. Ceramic tile countertops in the kitchen. Lots of cabinet space and stainless appliances in this eat-in kitchen.
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
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