Ascension Parish Real Estate Market Report

2009 Mid-year Report

This mid-year report is the result of my analysis of data retrieved from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. Only data relating to detached single family (DSF) homes were included. As I have done in the past, a distinction was made between new construction and previously owned (re-sale) homes.

Unit sales have continued to improved as indicated by the next chart. Sales of new construction are projected in 2009 to exceed sales of new construction in 2008. While recent improvements have been observed, home sales in the re-sale market segment are lagging behind those in 2008 but have rebounded to pre-Katrina levels.

Ascension Real Estate

The following chart tracks unit sales of new construction by month and year. One can see that new construction sales in 2009 have exceeded those in 2008 for every month so far this year.

Ascension Real Estate

While off to a slow start, previously owned home sales during June of this year exceeded those of June in 2008 and for every month except May exceeded the corresponding month in 2004.

Ascension Real Estate

Through June, we can see in the following chart that the average price of previously owned homes sold in the parish have not declined. The average price of a new home sold, however, has seen a substantial drop.

Ascension Real Estate

The explanation for this drop in the average price of a new home sold is made clear in the following chart which shows new construction sales by subdivision. Only the top 12 subdivision are shown but these twelve account for nearly 60% of home sales. It is evident that most new home sales were in subdivisions where homes with a limited number of floor plans and a generally lower standard of amenities than we have seen in years past are built.

Ascension Real Estate

We have been selling through the inventory of new construction in the parish. The following chart shows that, overall, there is only a 3.8 month supply of new homes... a seller's market overall. Looking at absorption data by price range we can see that a seller's market condition (less than 5.5 month supply) exists for all price ranges up to $400K. The absorption rate and inventory levels of homes selling for $400K and up, on the other hand, result in a serious buyer's market with more than a 20-month supply.

Ascension Real Estate

In the re-sale market segment there is, overall, a 6.4 month supply... a neutral market. Drilling down through the data, we can see that a seller's market condition exists for homes selling up to $200K. Over $200K, a buyer's market condition exists and for previously owned homes selling for more than $400K there are more than 3 years worth of inventory at current the current absorption rate.

div align="center">Ascension Real Estate

Comments and suggestions are encouraged. Readers wishing to have a more in-depth discussion welcome to contact me directly.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

 

East Baton Rouge Parish Residential Real Estate Market Analysis - May 2009

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in East Baton Rouge parish for the years 2004 through May 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

Although seasonality effects are obvious, overall unit sales in the parish have been trending downward since hurricane Katrina as the following chart illustrates. Currently, unit sales volume for both new construction and for previously owned homes are at 5-year lows.

East Baton Rouge Home Sales

Looking specifically, at May unit sales for 2009 and for the previous five years we can see that homes in both market segments are at historic lows, at least for the five year period examined.

East Baton Rouge Homes Unit Sales for May

A simple linear calculation of unit sales through the end of 2009 projects that new construction will be down nearly 8% while previously owned new homes will be down by about 12%.

East Baton Rouge Homes Sales Projection

The next chart illustrates that the average price of a previously owned home sold during 2009 is 6.5% lower than in 2008. New construction prices are also down buy by a more modest 3.5%.

East Baton Rouge Homes Average Price

Overall the supply of homes is more or less balanced by the demand. Based upon the average absorption rate of homes during 2009, there is a six-month supply making it a neutral market. If one looks at different price ranges, however, different conclusions can be drawn. A sellers market condition exists for homes priced below $250K while a buyers market condition exists for homes priced over $300K. For homes priced over $400K there is more than a 20-month supply based upon the average absorption rate for 2009.

East Baton Rouge Home Sales Absorption

Readers are encouraged to comment with questions or suggestions for improvement. Anyone interested in exploring the possibility of buying or selling property is welcomed to call or e-mail me.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

 

Ascension Parish Residential Real Estate Market Analysis - May 2009

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2004 through May 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The real estate news in Ascension parish is mixed but, in my opinion, generally good news. As the following chart illustrates, seasonality is taking effect as we move toward the historically favorable summer selling months. Unit sales of previously owned homes, although lower than last year are at levels similar to pre-Katrina levels.

Ascension Homes Unit Sales

Average home prices have declined as the next chart illustrates. With respect to new home prices, the drop is due primarily to a shift in what is being purchased rather than a drop in value. More affordable homes are being purchased. The most successful subdivisions are those which offer a limited number of floor plans with a lower standard of amenities than was the trend a just a few years back.

the average price of a previously owned home has receded somewhat but only about 2-4%.

Ascension Homes Average Prices

Although lower than the years immediately before and after Katrina, unit sales of new homes is improving. In fact, every month in 2009 saw more new homes sold than in every corresponding month of 2008.

Ascension New Homes Monthly Unit Sales

The next chart illustrates the price point of new homes sold during 2009. We can see a dense cluster of homes sold between about $160K and $215K which were priced at or below $110/sq.ft. of living area. A significant number of homes were also sold at higher prices and price points but the drop in average price and average price per square foot illustrates the trend toward more affordable homes.

Ascension New Homes Price vs $/sq.ft.

The really good news in the new home market is that inventories are being sold out. We previously reported that at the end of 2008 there was an 8.2 month supply of new homes in the parish. As the following chart illustrates, that has dropped to 4.2 months as of the end of May. It is a seller's market condition in most price ranges. The only area of deep concern is for homes priced at $400K and up where there is a 20 month supply. While there are five fewer homes in inventory today (20) than there were at the end of 2008, the rate of sales for these homes has dropped significantly from 2.3 homes per month in 2008 to only 1 per month on average during 2009.

Ascension New Homes Absorption by Price

The re-sale (previously owned homes) market statistics are similar to what was observed at the end of 2008. At that time we reported 385 homes available representing a 6.1 month supply at the average absorption rate for 2008. As of the end of May, we have 361 homes available representing a 6.5 month supply at the average absorption rate for 2009. Fewer homes per month are being sold but, as we saw earlier, we are just entering the peak selling season.

There is an oversupply situation with respect to the higher priced homes. In fact, at current absorption rates there is more than a four year supply of homes priced at $400K and above.

Ascension Previously Owned Homes Absorption by Price

Readers are encouraged to comment with questions or suggestions for improvement. Anyone interested in exploring the possibility of buying or selling property is welcomed to call or e-mail me.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com
www.WaterfrontPropertyLA.com

 

Livingston Parish Residential Real Estate Market Update- February 2009

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Livingston parish for the years 2004 through February 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The following chart plots unit sales of new construction and pre-owned homes (the bars) as well as overall unit sales and the six-month moving average of overall unit sales. We can see a generally downward trend in unit sales beginning in mid-2007. Examining more closely we can see that previously owned home unit sales have retracted to pre-Katrina levels for this time of year but that new construction unit sales has dropped below pre-Katrina levels.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Unit Home Sales

Examining the absorption chart by price/sq.ft. for homes in the re-sale market segment we can see that overall a buyer's market exist but that for homes priced below $110/sq.ft. a seller's market exists. This is in the range where the highest velocity of home sales occurs.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Absorption by Price per Square Foot for previously owned homes

In the new home segment, we observe that nearly half of the homes sold since the beginning of the year (8.5 out of 18) were priced below $100/sq.ft. and that in this range a seller's market exists. At all other price points buyer's market conditions persist.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Absorption by Price per Square Foot for new construction

The following chart shows the history of average home prices in the parish since 2004. We can see that between 2008 and 2009 the average price of a new home sold dropped over 7%. The average price of a previously owned home also dropped but only very slightly. Re-sale homes appear to be holding their value.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Average Home Prices

The next chart examines new construction by subdivision. We can see that for most subdivisions where home sales have occurred, a seller's market or near neutral market exists. We can also see that a significant amount (over 60%) of inventory exists in subdivisions for which no home sales have occurred this year.

East Baton Rouge Real Estate Pre-owned Home Absorption

Based upon this analysis, I believe that in Livingston parish, the market for affordable housing is in pretty good shape overall. There are some serious issues with respect to new construction but they seem to be related to price and location and a prudent home buyer could do quite well.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

 

East Baton Rouge Parish Residential Real Estate Market Update- February 2009

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2004 through February 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The next chart shows the history of Average home prices in East Baton Rouge Parish separating new construction from previously owned homes. The average home price over the first two months of 2009 shows a drop from the 2008 average of about 6% for new construction and about 3% for homes in the resale market segment.

East Baton Rouge Real Estate Average Home Prices

If one looks at the average selling price per square foot of living area, however, new construction dropped only about 1.8% while homes in the resale segment dropped nearly 3.9%

East Baton Rouge Real Estate Average Price per Square Foot

Unit sales are at near historic low points. There has been a more or less steady drop in unit sales since August of 2008. While much of that drop can be attributed to the normal seasonality of the market, I believe it would be imprudent to assume that the nation's current financial crisis has had no effect upon our market. That said, our market has fared much better than elsewhere in the country. Our prices, while down a bit have not plummeted as in other areas. I think that the small drop in prices is more a reflection upon the inventory mix and that when pent up demand is released and has been satisfied, that appreciation in home values will once again be observed. In the meantime, real estate seems to be a safer place for wealth than many other investment options.

East Baton Rouge Real Estate Unit Home Sales

In terms of new construction absorption and inventory levels, there is currently a 7.5 month supply overall making this a buyer's market. If we drill down through the various price ranges we can see that the problem with oversupply exists for homes priced over $400K where there is a 21 month supply and a clear buyer's market. For price ranges below $400K a neutral market or even a seller's market exists. A shift appears to have occured between 2008 and 2009 in terms of the velocity of home sales. The absorption rates in 2009 were highest for homes selling for between $200K and $300K while in 2008 the highest velocity was achieved between $150K and $200K. This will bear watching in the coming months to see if the shift persists and a trend develops.

East Baton Rouge Real Estate New Home Absorption

With respect to previously owned homes the absorption chart shows something different. While overall a similar 7.7 month supply exists, a buyer's market condition (over 6.5 months supply) market condition exists for all but the lowest price ranges where the highest velocity of home sales occurs.

East Baton Rouge Real Estate Pre-owned Home Absorption



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

 

Ascension Parish Residential Real Estate Market Analysis - February 2009

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2004 through February 2009. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The following chart shows unit sales by month since January 2004. We observe that overall (indicated by the green lines) there has been a generally downward trend since late 2006. If one digs deeper into the data, one finds that most of this downward trend is due to a continuing drop in the sales of new construction. This suggests the drop in new home prices is a price elasticity issue rather than due to the current economic crisis and the restricted availability of credit. Homes in the pre-existing market space maintained their sales rate up until September of 2008 when the mortgage meltdown occured and hurrican Gustav took a toll on the Greater Baton Rouge metro area market.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Unit Sales

Comparing February unit sales with unit sales in February of prior years, we observe that in the re-sale market space, unit sales are more or less equivalent to prior years (not counting February of 2006 when the positive effects of hurricane Katrina in Ascension parish were manifest). New construction, however, remains low. One bright spot here is that new construction unit sales in February 2009 were higher than in 2008 suggesting that the decline may be at an end and pent up demand could be ready to break loose.

Ascension Parish Real Estate February Unit Sales

In terms of pricing, average prices in both market segments were growing, or at least remaining stable, through 2008. With two months of 2009 sales recorded, the average price of both new construction and previously owned homes has declined by about 5%.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Average Home Prices

The following chart illustrates that the drop in the average price was not due to consumers simply purchasing smaller houses because the average selling price per square foot of living area also dropped.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Selling Price per Square Foot

For pre-owned homes, we observe an oversupply situation. Overall there is a nine-month supply. Looking more deeply into the following chart, however, we can see that this is primarily due to oversupply of more expensive homes. Affordable housing under $200K is in a seller's market where demand is high and supply is low.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Pre-existing Home Absorption Rate

Overall it is a buyer's market in the new construction segment. In general, however, affordable housing is in balance or exhibits characteristics of a seller's market while the situation worsens as price increases. The highest velocity of home sales occured in the $151K-$200K price range which has accounted for 42% of new home sales in 2009 through the end of February.

Ascension Parish Real Estate New Home Absorption Rate

Looking at the top 10 selling subdivisions for new construction in 2009, we can see confirmation that more affordable housing is indeed selling at a higher rate.

Ascension Parish Real Estate New Home Top 10 Subdivisions



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved

(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax

don@thehomevendor.com - email

www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

 
Don Stern | Coldwell Banker Mackey Co. | (225) 413-3624
6198 Royal Palms Ct, Gonzales, LA
Mediterranean style golf course home is perfect for entertaining
5BR/3BA Single Family House
offered at $390,000
Year Built 2003
Sq Footage 3,226
Bedrooms 5
Bathrooms 3 full, 0 partial
Floors 2
Parking Unspecified
Lot Size 14,450 sqft
HOA/Maint $38 per month

DESCRIPTION

Large five-bedroom home located in the prestigious Pelican Point Golf Community that sits right on the golf course.

This house is also available for lease. Call for details.

see additional photos below
PROPERTY FEATURES

Central A/C Central heat Fireplace
High/Vaulted ceiling Walk-in closet Tile floor
Family room Living room Bonus/Rec room
Dining room Breakfast nook Dishwasher
Refrigerator Stove/Oven Microwave
Granite countertop Stainless steel appliances Attic
Laundry area - inside Balcony, Deck, or Patio Yard

COMMUNITY FEATURES

Business center Clubhouse Fitness center
Swimming pool(s) Tennis court(s) Golf course
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ADDITIONAL PHOTOS

Contact info:
Don Stern
Coldwell Banker Mackey Co.
(225) 413-3624
For sale by agent/broker

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Posted: Feb 22, 2009, 11:49am PST
 
East Baton Rouge Real Estate - Residential Market Report

East Baton Rouge Parish Residential Real Estate Market Report

My last blog entry dealt with the state of the real estate market in Livingston Parish as of the end of 2008. This post deals with the state of the market in East Baton Rouge Parish.

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in East Baton Rouge parish for the years 2003 through 2008. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The following chart provides some general statistics.

Baton Rouge Real Estate Statistics

The previous chart illustrates the vast difference in both the median and average home prices between new construction and existing home sales. It is also interesting to note that both the least expensive and the most expensive home sold were in the re-sale market segment.

The average selling price of new construction continued to climb in the parish, rising about 10% between 2007 and 2008. The average selling price of an existing home, on the other hand, remained about the same. The good news is that prices haven't fallen as in other areas of the country.

Baton Rouge Real Estate Pricing

Unit sales, however, fell in both market segments and continues to trend downward. While new construction sales were off for most of the year, sales of pre-existing homes didn't suffer until both the meltdown of the financial market and the impact of Hurricane Gustav. With low interest rates, the first time home-buyers incentive and the general good health of the area I anticipate improvements in this market segment.

Baton Rouge Real Estate Sales

The highest velocity of new home sales occured for homes selling between $150K and $300K and in this range a seller's market exists. Overall, however, it is a buyers market with 7.3 months supply. This is due in large measure to the oversupply of homes priced over $400K. In this category there is more than a year's supply of homes at the 2008 average absorption rate.

Baton Rouge Real Estate New Construction Absorption

For pre-existing homes, it is either a sellers or neutral market until home prices exceed $350K where there is more inventory than demand and it is a buyer's market.

Baton Rouge Real Estate Existing Home Absorption

I've authored a report which examines the residential real estate market for the Greater Baton Rouge metro area in much greater detail than has been
presented here. Click Here to view the table of contents for this report.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com
www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

 
Livingston Parish Real Estate Report

Livingston Parish Residential Real Estate Market - 2008 Year End Report

My last blog entry dealt with the state of the real estate market in Ascension Parish as of the end of 2008. This post deals with the state of the market in Livingston Parish.

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2003 through 2008. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The following chart provides some general statistics.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Statistics 2008

An interesting contradiction appears in this chart. Both the median selling price and the median selling price per square foot of living area are higher for re-sale homes than for new construction but the averages of both these statistics are reversed... new construction stats are higher than existing home statistics which we are accustomed to seeing. I believe that affordability and pricing has had a major impact upon new construction sales. I'll look at this again later in this post when absorption rates and inventory levels are discussed.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Average Prices

Overall unit sales have been declining in Livingston Parish since the summer of 2007. While existing home sales peaked during the summer of 2008, the seasonality effect didn't impact upon new home sales where sales remained flat during the summer and then continued to decline afterward. The re-sale market remained at healthy pre-Katrina levels in terms of unit sales.

Livingston Parish Real Estate Unit Sales

If one looks at absorption rates and inventory levels (shown in the next two charts), we can see that overall it is a neutral market for both new construction and re-sale market segments. If one looks deeper, however, it becomes apparent that price elasticity is a factor. Most home sales in both market segments were for homes priced under $200K. As prices increase above that it rapidly becomes a buyer's market and the velocity of home sales diminishes rapidly.

I've authored a report which examines the residential real estate market for the Greater Baton Rouge metro area in much greater detail than has been presented here. Click Here to view the table of contents for this report.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

 
<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> <!-- Created with the CoffeeCup HTML Editor 2008 --> <!-- http://www.coffeecup.com/ --> <!-- Brewed on 1/19/2009 4:35:09 PM --> Ascension Parish 2008 Year End Residential Real Estate Market Analysis

Ascension Parish 2008 Year End Residential Real Estate Market Analysis

Recent articles in the national and local press have, in my opinion, been pretty negative regarding the real estate market. I think there is more to the story that needs telling so people can make informed decisions about the real estate market.

The information presented in this post is based upon data extracted from the Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors MLS database. For the purposes of my analysis, I included data for detached single family dwellings which sold in Ascension parish for the years 2003 through 2008. I identified the home sales as either New Construction or Re-Sale because, in my experience, they have distinct characteristics.

The first parameter examined was the average sales price of a home in Ascension Parish. The following chart illustrates that prices held more or less steady during 2008. The average home price for new construction remained about $258K while that of a previously owned home remained at about $207K.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Prices

The next four charts depict unit sales over the six-year period examined for this report. We can see the overall sales (the green lines) have, indeed, dropped during 2008 as has been reported.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Unit Sales

The next two charts show monthly unit sales over the same period. The first of these charts illustrate new construction unit sales only and the second deals only with homes in the re-sale market segment.

Ascension Parish Real Estate New Construction Unit Sales by Month

New construction unit sales have been significantly lower throughout the year.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Re-sale Homes Unit Sales by Month

We can see that, for the most part, homes in the re-sale market segment have maintained sales volumes at or near pre-Katrina levels. Most of the drop in unit sales reported in the popular media is attributable to New Construction. The re-sale market wasn't negatively affected to any significant level until the drop attributable to the effects of hurricane Gustav in September.

Ascension Parish Real Estate Unit Sales

If one examines the previous chart closely, one can observe that the six-month moving average of unit sales has been dropping more or less steadily since the fall of 2006. The effects of the mortgage industry crisis are, in my opinion, only secondary with respect to New Construction. I believe that the increase in prices of new construction following hurricane Katrina was the primary cause for the drop in volume.

I've authored a report which examines the residential real estate market for the Greater Baton Rouge metro area in much greater detail than has been presented here. Click Here to view the table of contents for this report.



©2009 by Don Stern - All Rights Reserved
(225)413-3634 phone (225)313-3698 fax
don@thehomevendor.com - email
www.TheHomeVendor.com www.DonAndAlishaStern.com www.LiveAscension.com www.PelicanPointHomes.com

 
 
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Don Stern ~ Greater Baton Rouge Real Estate

Baton Rouge, LA

More about me…

Coldwell Banker Mackey

Address: 16260 Airline Hwy., Suite C, Prairieville, LA, 70769

Office Phone: (225) 647-8805

Cell Phone: (225) 413-3624

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Analyses, thoughts & commentary relating to the Greater Baton Rouge area real estate market.


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