Douglas Trudeau, MBA, Assoc. Broker's Blog

Tucson Home Sales September 2008

Fri, 10 Oct 2008 12:36:22 -0500

Tucson home sales for September broke the mold for seasonal sales. Normally sales in September are less than August. Not in 2008. Go figure, the economy has tanked, credit has tanked, nobody fully trusts either candidate for President, nothing but negative-negative-negative in the economic news, yet Tucson home sales go up.

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$700 Billion To Bail Out The Greedy

Tue, 23 Sep 2008 16:45:28 -0500

Everybody is pointing fingers at who caused this mess. None are looking at the fact for every finger pointed out, there are 3 pointing back.

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Downtown Tucson Goes Sushi

Fri, 19 Sep 2008 15:39:45 -0500

Over two years ago my son and his friend approached me to help them find a building to lease or purchase for a restaurant. We looked at property in the complex at Silverbell and Grant. It met their needs, but, a pool supply retailer beat them to it. We talked about downtown Tucson and Rio Nuevo. They liked the idea and looked at several properties. Settling on a property owned by John Wesley Miller. For those who know Tucson, its in the old McLellan’s building.

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August 2008 Tucson Homes Sales Statistics and Prediction

Thu, 18 Sep 2008 11:27:32 -0500

Tucson home sales for August were nothing spectacular, yet not horrible considering the current market. TAR/MLS reported 903 official sales. Which was 13 sales below what I predicted eight months ago. However, not all the numbers were in when the monthly report is prepared. As of today there were 917 sales. Which was one over what I predicted. I predict September will see a significant decrease to 750 homes. Seasonally home sales decline in the fall and winter months in Tucson. September generally sees a 17% decrease in the number of homes sold when compared to August sales. October should see a 6% increase over September. Its the seasonal trend.

Average home sales price for the month of August was $238,504, with a median of $185,000. A significant difference. There were 10 homes that sold for over $1 million, averaging $1.29 million. There were 174 homes that sold between the median and average sales prices. Fifteen percent of the homes that sold were within the highest range of homes for sale which is the $200,000 to $249,999 range for a total of 135 homes. Fifty seven percent of the homes sold in August sold for under $200,000. Of that over half of these homes sold for under $150,000.

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July 2008 Tucson Residential Sales Report

Wed, 13 Aug 2008 11:33:14 -0500

The official numbers from TAR are out. With the anticipated seasonal decline in sales for July, residential home sales were slightly higher than predicted. Eight months ago I predicted 927 sales, 945 sales were officially reported, as of this writing 949 sales were recorded for July. Tucson home sale units decreased by 8.61% over that of June, which can be expected. July always has a 8–9% lower sales volume than June.

The number of available homes repeated previous months by decreasing an additional 3.24%. We have seen inventory decrease for several months. We are now below 8,000 available homes. A good sign for a recovering home market. Continual good news for home sellers and the local real estate market. I predicted that we will see a very healthy market when we reach 7,000 available homes. We are headed in the right direction. Not there yet, but, getting there. Read the rest of this entry »

Is Now A Good Time To Buy A Home?

Mon, 04 Aug 2008 10:35:04 -0500

Our Federal government has stimulated the market with the recent tax credit. Now is a great time to buy. Those who ignore this opportunity will be throwing money away. Does this mean Buyers should throw caution to the wind? By no means should any home buyer ignore due diligence in buying a home. Buying more home than you can afford regardless of incentives is always a mistake. Being reasonable and rational is always a good thing. There are conditions for meeting the criteria. Not everyone will meet the requirements. As any good Realtor will tell you to check with your tax account or real estate attorney to get the best advise to you.

What does the tax credit potentially mean to you? READ MORE

May Real Estate Sales Report For Tucson

Wed, 11 Jun 2008 08:44:56 -0500

My prediction for May 2008 Tucson real estate sales was 1,035 sales. The officially reported number or 1,025 (collected June 4th) was very close. Checking this morning there were 25 additional sales not reported on time which increases the number of sales to 1050. READ MORE

Tucson Real Estate Preliminary May Sales Report

Tue, 03 Jun 2008 08:40:03 -0500

Will we exceed the predicted sales of 1,035 for May? We will know in a matter of days. The good thing is sales are continually increasing, which is good news for Tucson real estate. Bad news for those who wait for woulda, shoulda, coulda. Read More

Home Selling Strategies

Thu, 29 May 2008 14:34:46 -0500

In a market where buyer confidence is slowly returning it is important to have a strategy if you expect to sell sooner than later. The Tucson real estate market is still reeling, but, not as much as Phoenix, Stockton CA or other areas. Most home sellers, even in the Tucson Real Estate Market, like to set a price and hold. Losing opportunity and eventually selling for much less than they could have gotten. You’ve heard it before, Proper Prior Planning Prevents Poor Performance. Having a strategy (prior planning) can make a difference on whether a home sells (prevents) or does not sell (poor performance). Read the rest of this entry »

How should you communicate with Internet prospects?

Tue, 20 May 2008 19:13:25 -0500

Who has the best answer to the question, "How should you communicate with Internet prospects?"

Everybody has an opinion on this topic. What really works, not in theory or concept, but, in practice? Personally, I think asking questions of a prospect is a turn off. I like to start out with offering information and advise without being apparent about it. Leaving it up to the prospect to take it to the next level. Here are two samples:

"Many homebuyers, especially first time homebuyers, are not fully informed about home inspections. Leaving themselves open for problems down the road. On my website, I talk about the importance of home inspections. To read more click here."

"Selecting the right lender can make a big difference. On my website, I talk about the importance of lender selection and preparation to buy. To read more click here."

What did I do?

I provided a brief message giving the buyer control to either click and read more or ignore the message.
I didn't ask anything of the prospect.
I increased opportunity to get the prospect to my blog site.
I am setting up my rapport with prospects to win them over before I ask them, "How can I help you?"

How many times have you walked into a store and had a salesperson come up and ask right off the bat, "How can I help you?" How many times did you want to respond with, "By leaving me alone?" Remember, home buyers on the Internet want to be in control. Let them have control. Be smart about how you put yourself in front of them. Not all buyers read blogs. Not all blog readers are buyers. Creating a mix from website to blog site to provide invaluable service is a key to success in my book.

So, I leave you with this thought, "How best should I communicate with Internet prospects?"

Home Searching On The Internet

Sun, 18 May 2008 10:20:33 -0500

Internet Real Estate BuyingAnyone you talk to will tell you that a vast majority of home buyers start searching for a home on the Internet. In today’s world of technology the “Duh” factor comes into play when it comes to buying and buying smart.

Estimates are as high as 80% of home buyers begin their search on the Internet. Personally, I believe it is more. Lets see, I need an air filter for my truck. At $3.51 a gallon do I really want to drive five miles to find out they don’t have any?

So I jump on the Internet check the local store and yes they supply what I need. Their phone number is there for the local store, called, they have two left. Now I can go buy. I needed a wireless connection for my printer. Checked at the store while out doing other things, $99. Checked on EBay through the Internet, and got it for $47.99 plus $5.00 shipping. Works great. Would have spent more on gas than the shipping.

Need to renew prescriptions? Go to the Internet. Need to shop for a car? Internet. Need the latest news? Internet. After all, aren’t you reading this right now on the Internet? So, why should real estate be any different?

No wonder so many home buyers of all ages are looking for a house on the Internet. There are pictures, maps, comparisons. Careful about the comparisons, they can be misleading. There is information about neighborhoods, schools, nearly everything. It has gotten to the point that rarely do I have a client who cannot/does not access information on the Internet. A large majority of the clients I work with find me on the Internet. I Google myself sometimes to see what others see. Read the rest of this entry »

Tucson Real Estate April Sales Report

Tue, 13 May 2008 10:18:43 -0500

The official numbers are out from the Tucson Association of Realtors. Tucson home sales volume increased by 5.86% and total home sales increased by 8.1% over that of March 2008. Good news for home sellers and the local market. The numbers of available homes decreased by 2.37%. Indications are there to show the Tucson real estate market is heading toward a healthy market again. Tucson has always remained in better condition than many areas of the nation.

Prices decreased, what buyers want to hear. The average sales price dropped by 2.08% over that of March, while the median price lowered by 2.5%. More good news. Especially with interest rates holding in the high 5% to low 6% range. Changes have been very slight for months. Which brings to mind, a client with exceptional credit and savvy loan shopping closed on the purchase of his home a few weeks ago for 5.375%. So, those deals are out there. Read the rest of this entry »

Tucson Real Estate - Should I Buy or Should I Wait

Sat, 10 May 2008 20:26:44 -0500

Almost daily someone asks me, “Should I buy a home now or should I wait for the market to change?” The answer is, “Now is a great time to buy a home.” Why?

Home prices have remained stable in some areas and dropped below levels before the housing market frenzy in other areas. Especially in the south, extended south, and southwest parts of Tucson. The southwest has always been a “get more for your dollar” area. Comparative shopping by area can save thousands of dollars. With the new Spectrum Shopping Center coming in at Drexel and I-19, with Best Buy and Harkins Theaters are already there, south and southwest homeowners won’t have to drive so far to go shopping and find entertainment. Whoever puts a restaurant near the theater is going to see great returns.
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Has The Housing Market Begun To Correct Itself?

Wed, 07 May 2008 00:17:58 -0500

Everybody wants to know when the housing market will bottom out so they can get the best price. The truth is by the time anyone figures out the puzzle recovery will have already begun. An interesting article from the Wall Street Journal suggests that we on our way to a better market. READ MORE

What Makes A Luxury Home In Tucson

Tue, 06 May 2008 10:06:01 -0500

I’ve noticed a lot of inquiries for luxury homes lately. Which brings to mind. What is a luxury home? What are the different levels of luxury homes?

It used to be that anything over $500,000 in Tucson was considered a luxury home. Is there a difference between granite counter tops in a $350,000 and a $900,000 home? What difference is there between an $850,000 home and a $2,500,000 home? What can you expect? READ MORE

Tucson Real Estate Pool Safety

Sat, 03 May 2008 20:04:44 -0500

With the weather picking up it is time to start thinking about pool safety. Every year we hear about a parent, uncle, friend or whomever who for a short moment wasn’t paying close attention to a child who unfortunately drowned. Arizona has strict laws about pools and barriers. A law that both buyers and seller should be aware of. For safety the Red Cross says it best.

Straight from the Red Cross website:

Home Pools

Learn to swim. The best thing anyone can do to stay safe in and around the water is to learn to swim–this includes adults and children. The American Red Cross has swimming courses for people of any age and swimming ability. To enroll in a course to learn or improve your ability to swim, contact your local Red Cross chapter.
Never leave a child unobserved around water. Your eyes must be on the child at all times. Adult supervision is recommended.
Install a phone by the pool or keep a cordless phone nearby so that you can call 9-1-1 in an emergency.
Learn Red Cross CPR and insist that babysitters, grandparents, and others who care for your child know CPR.
Post CPR instructions and 9-1-1 or your local emergency number in the pool area.
Enclose the pool completely with a self-locking, self-closing fence with vertical bars. Openings in the fence should be no more than four inches wide. The house should not be included as a part of the barrier.
- The gate should be constructed so that it is self-latching and self-closing.
Never leave furniture near the fence that would enable a child to climb over the fence.
Always keep basic lifesaving equipment by the pool and know how to use it. Pole, rope, and personal flotation devices (PFDs) are recommended.
Keep toys away from the pool when it is not in use. Toys can attract young children into the pool.
Pool covers should always be completely removed prior to pool use.
If a child is missing, check the pool first. Go to the edge of the pool and scan the entire pool, bottom, and surface, as well as the surrounding pool area

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April 2008 Tucson Preliminary Sales Report

Fri, 02 May 2008 10:32:01 -0500

April was a pretty good month for sales. As of this writing there have been 907 recorded home sales through the MLS. Of course, reporting so earlier not all the sales have been reported to the MLS. So we can expect the numbers to be a little higher. The lowest sales price was $26,000, with the highest at $2,715,000. The unofficial average was $251,764 with a median of $196,500. There are still 8,729 homes without any offers on them. Another 1,812 homes with offers waiting to close escrow. READ MORE

March 2008 Preliminary Real Estate Sales Report

Thu, 03 Apr 2008 22:58:48 -0500

I am sure that there are a lot of people wondering how the Tucson real estate market fared during March of 2008. The official count of sales for February was 710. March saw an increase of nearly 26% with 892 sales. That is a solid increase considering all the scare about today’s market.

Historically the increase between February and March is 28%. We experienced a 26% increase; the difference of 15 home sales. I know those 15 other home sellers would appreciate that 2% increase. With 8,965 homes on the market, falling off by 15 sales is not a bad fall. Not even enough to warrant a bandage. READ MORE

Tucson Real Estate January Golf Property Sales

Sun, 17 Feb 2008 19:08:04 -0600

January 2008 Tucson real estate sales for golf properties backing up to a fairway, green or tee weren’t very high, but, they were high enough. Of the fifteen sales one lucky individual will be enjoying the Accenture Match Play Championship live from the comfort of home. From their perfectly positioned home they will witness tee to green shots for the first hole. A good set of binoculars don’t hurt. Used mine a lot last year.

The lowest sales price for a single family residence (SFR) was $215,000 for a 1909 square foot home built in 1965. The highest SFR was $1,930,431 for a new 3908 square foot home. One 1173 square foot condo sold for $249,000. A 1445 square foot town home sold for $359,000. READ MORE

What Does Golf and Rodeo Have In Common In Tucson

Thu, 14 Feb 2008 21:15:02 -0600

February is a big month for the greater Tucson community. Thousands of visitors have been coming to Tucson from around the State of Arizona, Sonora, and many other areas. The Tucson Rodeo was an annual event before I moved to Tucson some 34 years ago.

Last year the Accenture Match Play Championship moved to Tucson. Replacing the PGA Chrysler Open. Tucson has been a host to the PGA since 1945. Welcoming players over the years like Ben Hogan, Arnold Palmer, and now Tiger Woods.

Rodeo lovers flood the streets near the Rodeo grounds every year to watch the nations largest non-mechanized parade. When our boys were little we took them several times to see the horses and wagons go by. Newcomers to the community find lots of cowboy hats and boots to dress for the occasion. Many businesses allow employees to dress western for the multiple day event.

Having been to PGA Open events at Tucson National Golf Course, and then the Accenture Match Play last year I can say that the later is a much bigger event. The crowds around Ernie Els, Mike Weir, and Phil Michelson are huge. The crowd following Tiger Woods were unbelievable.

So what do these two events have in common? Both bring thousands of visitors to Tucson. Many for the first time. Many who see the advantages of the mild winters in the desert and who look to move here in the near and distant future. Both events help stimulate the local hospitality business and the local economy. Both the rodeo and the golf tour are welcomed by thousands of Tucsonians. So, welcome to Tucson and have fun. Don’t forget our other sights while you are here.

More Attractions

What Makes Up A Contract

Wed, 13 Feb 2008 22:02:45 -0600

A couple days ago someone asked me the components of a contract. As an experienced Realtor you would think that I could rattle it out without thinking. Brain freeze, embarrassment, and a lot of thinking afterward. Contracts are a critical part of real estate. Sometimes we write contracts, knowing what is required without thinking about all the parts. I must say, I feel good about how much I put into contracts. Beyond the requirements, making sure that expectations are clearly written. We have all seen some contracts that questionably written, vague about expectations, or are confusing as heck.

I started wondering about buyers and sellers who may not know requirements of a contract. There are a lot of home buyers and sellers, some who use a Realtor, some who don’t who understand even less about contracts and liabilities. So what makes up a contract?

Performance and Expectations:

In any transaction requiring a contract there are certain expectations from both sides. I n real estate, Sellers expect to get paid for the sale of their home with minimal or no problems. Buyers expect to buy a home with minimal or no problems. Mutual agreement so far. Sellers expect to surrender possession of the home, buyers expect to take possession. If only it were this simple.

If a lender is used, additional expectations will arise. Considering what has happened with the lending industry over the last 18 months, these expectations can be very strict with fewer buyers qualifying. For Sale By Owners (FSBO) have little protection in this area to confirm a sale if they are not savvy with writing contracts. Some sales can be very complicated and require very specific language to protect all concerned. In real estate only what is written is binding. If one side states something verbally, the other should insure receipt in writing.

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Where Are All These Homes For Sale Coming From

Fri, 08 Feb 2008 05:30:15 -0600

While talking to a Realtor whom I trust, she identified some interesting considerations when it comes to the number of listings on the market today. Thanks Theresa.

Normally there are two types of homes on the market. Traditionally the majority of homeowners sell their home between five to seven years; the first type, normal market. Then there are those who have a life change (job relocation, got married and need a bigger house, have more family than home, have more home than family, moving up in life with a higher income and can afford more home, etc.) who sell their homes, normal market. Using the current numbers, these accounts for approximately two thirds of the homes on the market. Which, if they were the only ones on the market we would have a very healthy and balanced market.

So where is the other one third of the homes coming from? They come from buyers who took it to the edge, pushed the envelope, took a risk, and just got in over their heads. Now we have two more layers, so to speak, to add to the number of homes on the market. First are those trying to get out from under the unmanageable mortgage they agreed to two to three years ago. Many are ending up in short sales. The next level are those poor souls who gambled too high and lost their homes. Bank sales are an ever increasing number of homes on the market today. Both have created an unhealthy market.

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Tucson Making It Through Recession

Tue, 05 Feb 2008 08:30:35 -0600

An unusual means for measuring the economy is employment through the ADC. When I retired in 2000 we had a low of 10% staffing shortage in some complexes, and as high as 22% in others. Speaking last week to a friend who recruits, the staffing shortage statewide is 2%. We used to say, when the economy is good, we can’t get staff. When the economy is not good we have enough staff. There is a lot of debate about whether we are in a recession or not. If not, we couldn’t come any closer. Tucson has one saving grace for real estate.

Tucson is a haven for retirees. There is no question about that. What has softened the effects of the current market it this vital part of future buyers for Tucson’s real estate. Babyboomers have been a driving force in our society since post WW II. Tucson is a magnet to many babyboomers.

Richard C. Carlson has been forecasting for 4 decades. I subscribe to his philosophy about the Tucson market. I have been positioning myself for babyboomers for the past eight years. Being a babyboomer myself, I can see the desire and need to move to a community like Tucson. No blizzards, no hurricanes, no tornadoes, and no earthquakes. Lots of sunshine, golf, hiking, biking, community events. Easy access to airlines, skying, Las Vegas, California, and Mexico. Lower cost of living. More bank for your buck, so to speak.

Tucson has retirement communities for those wanting quiet adult solitude. Adult communities for those living life to its fullest. Luxury communities, gated communities, golf communities, planned communities, and rural living. All within the greater Tucson area. So, babyboomers, welcome to Tucson. You have been a significant factor in softening the blows of a tough economy.

By the way, if you happen to love golf, I’m always up for a game. Watch for the PGA Accenture Match Championship coming to Tucson later this month.

Tucson Real Estate January 2008 Preliminary Home Sales Report

Sun, 03 Feb 2008 12:11:51 -0600

On January 18th I predicted that residential home sales for January should fall between 546 and 610. As of February 1, that number is 568. Mid point within the range. Not bad for predicting. Reporting will continue for the next couple of weeks. The official numbers will be collected on or around the 4th of the month. As of now the highest being $3,100,000, lowest $35,000 and median of $199,695.

Thirteen Golf Properties were recorded as sold for the month, for an average price of $462,110. The highest being $1,939,000, lowest $114,000 and median of $332,500.

Considering today is Superbowl Sunday, the deadline for reporting could be extended. The TAR/MLS official report won’t be out until some time between the 14th and 19th. So, watch for all the blogs from Dave (Tucson AZ Real Estate), Kelly (House Chick) and me around that time. Each giving a slightly different spin on the market. Between the three of us, you will get a good picture of the market.

Since last month interest rates have dropped in an attempt to stimulate the market. How long interest rates will remain this low depends on a lot of things. Lets all hope it stays low.

Watch for:

What do dams and the current market have in common?
Tucson and the current recession.

Seven Ways To Drive A Realtor Insane

Fri, 25 Jan 2008 21:29:47 -0600

Having worked with a variety of home buyers over the past several years I have met some very nice people. Some I share a lot with, especially the passion for golf. Others have been very interesting and fun to work with. Each having their own special value. There are those few who just drive you insane. Which is what everyone is curious about, right?

As a Realtor it doesn’t matter if I work with someone for a day or over a period of years. I am in the middle of a sale right now that I have had the pleasure of communicating with my buyer for nearly two years. Once they were ready, I turned up the service from periodic e-mails, an occasional phone call, and just staying in touch to some serious searching, looking, kicking the tires and writing a contract. Its been a fun two years with them.

Working with a client for several months or a few years is easy. Knowing when to turn up the service is the key. Its the buyer who doesn’t know what they want and want me to find it for them that creates the real challenge. Sometimes to the point of insanity. Here’s some tips on how to drive Your Realtor totally insane:

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