Elissa 's Blog

New Listing in Leucadia, CA

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 20:58:34 -0500

This is an amazing 1962 mobile home. Now don't click the delete button just yet. This is a 'gotta see this home'! type of new listing.

These people bought a little old mobile home near the beach and opened it wide up on one side and brought in the Pottery Barn...it is a delight to see. It has no resemblance to a mobile home at all. There is rock floors, shadow glass closet doors, custom bathroom vanities with the bowl type sinks. We have a gourmet kitchen, new vinyl windows, and amazing yard complete with fruit trees and grass, totally fenced but the best part is the deck. It is an entertainment dream with friends over a glass of wine or curl up with a good book.

You can walk to restaurants, shops, public transportation such as the Coaster and the best part is moon light walks on the beach just a few blocks away. How can you live this close to the beach and not have to pay millions for a tiny spot in paradise

Bring me an offer over $195,000 and you might get it. Sure it used to be a 62 mobile home but now it is a 2007 renovated home with up to the date everything. You might ask what the heck were they thinking to spend so much money on this little home....but aren't we glad they did as it could be your little beach getaway. Bear in mind that the park space rent is around $1000 a month, but if you have cash and can pay that space rent then you are AT THE BEACH and the quaint area called Leucadia.

You have to see these pictures....and then call me, Elissa Davey at 760-805-9058

Tax Credit for First Time Homeowners

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 20:36:32 -0500

The Housing and Economic Recovery Act: Tax Credit The tax credit is for First Time Homebuyers (not owned a primary residence for the past three years) whose loan closed between April 9, 2008 and June 30, 2009. The highest amount of the tax credit will be $7,500 for individuals earning up to $75,000 and couples earning no more than $150,000. The amount of the tax credit declines when the income rises and phases out completely when the single tax payer earns $95,000 and a couple earns $170,000. A tax credit is much better than a tax deduction. A tax deduction is added to all of the other deductible items on Schedule A (medical expenses, charitable contributions, home interest, property taxes, unreimbursed employee expenses, etc.) and then that amount is deducted from the adjusted gross income, giving you the bottom line income from which the income tax is calculated. A tax credit is taken after all of the deductions are calculated, the adjusted gross income is calculated, and the income tax is decided - then the $7,500 comes off of that amount! If the taxpayers owe less than $7500 in taxes, the difference between what they owe and the $7500 is given to them as a tax refund. However, this tax credit is not necessarily a gift...This $7,500 is an interest-free, 15-year loan. Every year for the next 15 years, the taxpayers must increase the amount of taxes they pay by $500 until the loan is paid in full. If the homebuyers sell their home within 15 years, and the gain on the home is less than the amount of the credit, then the remaining portion of the tax credit is forgiven. If the gain is greater than the remaining portion of the tax credit, then the balance will be due for that year's income taxes.

HOPE FOR HOMEOWNERS IN A SHORT SALE SITUATION

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Tue, 05 Aug 2008 20:34:40 -0500

"Hope for Homeowners" is a short-sale refinance intended to allow distressed homeowners keep owner occupied homes from going into foreclosure. There are a lot of moving parts to this bill and the homeowners will have to agree to an equity share for five years after they refinance into this loan. The mortgage holders are NOT required to participate in the program.

Basic principles are:

•· Principal residence only.

•· Borrowers certify that they did not intentionally default on the mortgage for the purpose of obtaining the HOPE loan.

•· Borrowers mortgage debt-to-income ratio (including all existing mortgages) as of March 31, 2008 must be 31% or higher (this is also known as the front ratio).

•· Calculation of the new loan will be based on the borrower's ability to make mortgage payments determined by FHA or other underwriting standards AND the loan-to-value limited to 90% of the appraised value.

•· The existing lien holder must waive any prepayment penalties and fees.

•· The existing lien holders must agree to accept the proceeds as payment in full of all indebtedness under the hope loan; and all encumbrances must be removed.

•· Those lien holders of existing subordinate mortgages will be entitled to future appreciation of the property. Standards and policies of the shared appreciation will be developed by FHA.

•· The new term may not be for less than 30 years and the rate must be a fixed rate.

•· The new loan amount cannot exceed $550,400 which is 132% of FHLMC loan limit established in 2007.

•· The borrowers cannot put a new second lien on the property for 5 years after the refinance takes place.

•· Income must be documented by income tax returns for the most recent two years.

•· The borrower cannot have convicted of mortgage fraud under Federal or State law during the past 10 years.

•· The borrower must supply documentation to prove that they only own this one residence. If they own other properties, they cannot utilize this program

•· No one can unduly influence an appraiser in connection with this mortgage.

•· MIP - a 3% UFMIP will be included in the mortgage being financed, through a reduction of the amount of indebtedness that existed on the loan being refinanced and will be paid to HUD, additionally the annual mortgage insurance premium will be 1.5% of the loan amount.

•· The interest rates and origination fees will be determined by the new Federal Housing Finance Agency, but will be comparable to market rates.

•· Equity Appreciation - upon sale or disposition of the property or subsequent refinance there will be shared equity on a graduated scale.

a) Sale or refinance within one year entitles HUD to 100% of the equity appreciation.

b) Sale or refinance within more than one year and less than two years entitles HUD to 90% of the equity appreciation.

c) Sale or refinance within more than two years and less than three years entitles HUD to 80% of the equity appreciation.

d) Sale or refinance within more than three years and less than four years entitles HUD to 70% of the equity appreciation.

e) Sale or refinance within more than four years and less than five years entitles HUD to 60% of the equity appreciation.

f) Sale or refinance within year five entitles HUD to 50% of the equity appreciation.

MORGAN STANLEY TO LIQUIDATE REAL ESTATE PORFOLIO

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:20:12 -0500

Just heard it though the grapevine that Morgan Stanley is going to liquidate their Real Estate porfolio to the tune of in the trillions for 22 cents on the dollar...What does that mean to us?

I have no idea...but I do know that there will be great properties coming available and you need to be ready to purchase with all your loans in place and ready to go.

We have great deals here in San Diego county that are ready to go and just need a buyer with their loan ready and a bit of money on the side to do repairs.

Now is the time to buy if you are looking for a home. You need money for your down payment and closing cost, but loans are available that will fit your need. Don't miss out on this time to buy while the prices are low and the inventory is great.

PRESIDENT SIGNS HISTORIC HOUSING BILL

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 12:14:14 -0500

The legislation will assist an estimated 400,000 homeowners facing foreclosure, many of whom reside in California, by allowing them to refinance their current mortgages with a Federal Housing Administration (FHA)-backed loan. The bill also will permanently increase FHA, Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac loan limits in high-cost areas.

The bill permanently increases the conforming loan limit to $625,500. C.A.R. has long advocated for higher conforming loan limits. In February, the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008 was signed, temporarily raising the conforming loan limit in high-cost areas to $729,750 from $417,000 until December 31, 2008.

Although we would have liked Congress to make permanent the current $729,750 loan limit, C.A.R. is pleased with the new permanent loan limit of $625,500. It will allow California homeowners to refinance their loans into safe affordable loan products and allow first-time home buyers to enter the market.

The new loan limits for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are the greater of either $417,000 or 115 percent of an area's median home price, up to $625,500. The new FHA loan limit will be the greater of $271,050 or 115 percent of an area's median home price, up to $625,500. Both new loan limits will be effective at the expiration of the economic stimulus limits on December 31, 2008.

Foreclosure Bidding Wars!

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:19:44 -0500

You want to buy a foreclosure but you don't want to be in a bidding war?

Well then step away because that is exactly what is going to happen.

People are over bidding on foreclosures here in Oceanside, California because the deals seem to real to be true. They are bidding on fixer uppers that really need fixing. Bring on the paint brushes, carpet, appliances and huge bucket of soap and you will end up with your elbow grease getting you a great investment.

You have to be prepared to wait for an answer back from the bank and that may take weeks to get back. You may lose out on a deal because you are waiting to hear back on one and another pops up and you don't know what to do. It's a wait and see game.

Can you place offers on other properties? Yes! Your offer is not final until you confirm that you are accepting the banks reply. But if you have an offer on the table the best thing to do is wait it out and see if you get the property you wanted as usually first choice is the best choice.

Ask your realtor for advise as we are the professionals. But don't ask us hows the market as we have not a clue. We don't have a crystal ball because if we did we would have socked money away more and bought oil stock. We know our job and thrive to be ethical, honest and knowledgable, but no one can tell you what is going to happen tomorrow because tomorrow isn't here. Just follow your gut instincts.

Buy a foreclosure NOW- put your money to use as these are the best prices I have seen in years here in San Diego County not to mention the whole country. BUY USA! Call in all your friends and have a cleaning party and then celebrate your new pretty home with a great American Barbeque.

You should call your Realtor today and start looking at the homes for sale. It doesn't have to be a foreclosure as there are wonderful deals here in San Diego County, which is a destination of choice for most out of towners. Get going on your dream home now while there are plenty to choose from.

Please keep in mind that a lot of families have lost their homes because of the loan packages they chose and our hearts go out to them that they will be able to pick up the pieces and start anew soon. We give them our prayers that they will get through this setback and come back bigger and better.

I wish you all 'ENOUGH". Elissa

United States Treasury IRS Auctions

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 13:04:10 -0500

32 Acres of Orange & Olive trees on auction in Lemon Cove, CA

AR - Rogers Commercial building with connected storage warehouse on major highway in Rogers, Arkansas. Total square footage is approximately 8150 sq. ft. Adjacent lot has approximately .47 acres. Ideal location for business
	Date of Auction: 7/30/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	AZ - Tucson 2 story, 2 bedroom, 1 bath Condo/Townhouse in the Old Pueblo
	Date of Auction: 8/27/2008, at: 11:00 AM

	CA - Lemon Cove UPDATE-NEW SALE DATE-2ND COURT ORDER INCLUDES STOCK IN WATER DISTRICT OPEN HOUSE WILL BE CONDUCTED AS SCHEDULED. Orange Blossom special- this this little ranch needs an investor with a vision.Great house with views of the Sierra Nevada Mtns
	Date of Auction: 8/12/2008, at: 11:30 AM

	CA - Los Angeles ´Vacant residential hillside lot, 6,360 square feet per assessor records.´
	Date of Auction: 7/28/2008, at: 10:30 AM

	CA - Pollock Pines UPDATE-NEW SALE DATEVacant residential lot located in Sly Park Recreational Area in Northern CA´
	Date of Auction: 8/7/2008, at: 11:00 AM

	FL - Daytona Beach Where the water is great! 42 Marie Drive, Ponce Inlet, Lot 18, PONCE LANDING SUBDIVISION, Daytona Beach, FL
	Date of Auction: 8/21/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	FL - Weeki Wachee Ahhhh....Peaceful Living! 3.5 Acres of unimproved residential vacant land.
	Date of Auction: 8/28/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	IA - Des Moines UPDATE-PAYMENT TERMS CHANGEDCommercial Office building , good location
	Date of Auction: 8/12/2008, at: 12:00 PM

	IA - Des Moines UPDATE - SALE ADJOURNED-NEW SALE DATE JULY 31, 20086 bedrooms, 5 baths with approx 3411 sq ft on large lot
	Date of Auction: 7/31/2008, at: 11:00 AM

	MA - Seekonk Industrial Truck Terminal on 3.03 acres with 12,068 sq ft bldg, Great Location minutes to I-195
	Date of Auction: 8/21/2008, at: 12:00 PM

	MD - Baltimore Two Story Row House
	Date of Auction: 8/26/2008, at: 9:00 AM

	NC - Greensboro Opportunity to buy a 4000+ sq. ft. in prestigeous Irving Park. 4 bedroom, 4.5 Bath, Double Lot with swimming pool
	Date of Auction: 8/28/2008, at: 11:00 AM

	OH - Cleveland UPDATE-NEW SALE DATE & MINIMUM BID REDUCEDCommerial Real Estate: A 9,620 commercial property located on busy Pearl Road with 76´ of road frontage with a high traffic count. The property was formerly used as a restaurant.
	Date of Auction: 8/5/2008, at: 11:00 AM

	PA - Erie Prime commercial property located in great area of Erie, PA
	Date of Auction: 9/3/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	PA - Philadelphia UPDATE-SALE ADJOURNED-NEW SALE DATEPrime commercial property located next to major shopping mall, ready for development
	Date of Auction: 7/29/2008, at: 11:00 AM

	SC - Fair Play UPDATE - SEE REMARKS IN NOTICE OF SALEGreat opportunity to own real estate in upscale area within minutes of public docks! 4 interior lake lots located in Edgewater Hills Subdivision near Lake Hartwell.
	Date of Auction: 7/31/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	TX - Austin Nice family home in South Austin
	Date of Auction: 7/29/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	TX - Austin Single Family Home in Prestigious Circle C Subdivision
	Date of Auction: 7/29/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	TX - Carrolton UPDATE - See Remarks in AdJUDICIAL SALE - Residential Home; 3BR, Central Air/Heat, 2-Car Garage & More! Don´t miss a great opportunity to own this beautiful home!
	Date of Auction: 8/29/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	TX - Corpus Christi Good Investment property- a nice single family, 840 sq ft home with a large front yard and one car garage
	Date of Auction: 9/9/2008, at: 12:00 PM

	TX - Katy ´REDEEMED PROPERTY´- A spacious 3,128 sq ft home with 4 bdrms, 2 1/2 baths, 2 car detached garage, game room , built in kitchen appliances- located in Kelliwood Place, Katy, TX. I-10 West, good location, school district, and neighborhood.
	Date of Auction: 8/1/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	TX - Red Rock Great commercial opportunity for a restaurant business or any other commercial business about 8 miles south of Bastrop, TX. Plenty of parkking
	Date of Auction: 8/12/2008, at: 10:00 AM

	TX - Travis County Acreage in South Austin near Travis and Hays County lines
	Date of Auction: 7/29/2008, at: 10:00 AM

8 REASONS WHY YOU SHOULD WORK WITH A REALTOR

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 12:34:56 -0500

8 Reasons Why You Should Work With a REALTOR®

1. Navigate a complicated process. Buying or selling a home usually requires disclosure forms, inspection reports, mortgage documents, insurance policies, deeds, and multipage settlement statements. A knowledgeable expert will help you prepare the best deal, and avoid delays or costly mistakes.

2. Information and opinions. Realtors® can provide local community information on utilities, zoning, schools, and more. They'll also be able to provide objective information about each property. A professional will be able to help you answer these two important questions: Will the property provide the environment I want for a home or investment? Second, will the property have resale value when I am ready to sell?

3. Help finding the best property out there. Sometimes the property you are seeking is available but not actively advertised in the market, and it will take some investigation by your Realtor® to find all available properties.

4. Negotiating skills. There are many negotiating factors, including but not limited to price, financing, terms, date of possession, and inclusion or exclusion of repairs, furnishings, or equipment. In addition, the purchase agreement should provide a period of time for you to complete appropriate inspections and investigations of the property before you are bound to complete the purchase. Your agent can advise you as to which investigations and inspections are recommended or required.

5. Property marketing power. Real estate doesn't sell due to advertising alone. In fact, a large share of real estate sales comes as the result of a practitioner's contacts through previous clients, referrals, friends, and family.

6. Someone who speaks the language. If you don't know a CMA from a PUD, you can understand why it's important to work with a professional who is immersed in the industry and knows the real estate language.

7. Experience. Most people buy and sell only a few homes in a lifetime, usually with quite a few years in between each purchase. Even if you have done it before, laws and regulations change. Realtors®, on the other hand, handle hundreds of real estate transactions over the course of their career. Having an expert on your side is critical.

8. Objective voice. A home often symbolizes family, rest, and security - it's not just four walls and a roof. Because of this, home buying and selling can be an emotional undertaking. And for most people, a home is the biggest purchase they'll every make. Having a concerned, but objective, third party helps you stay focused on both the emotional and financial issues most important to you.

Reprinted from REALTOR® magazine (REALTOR.org/realtormag) with permission of the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®.

WHY FHA FINANCING!

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Tue, 22 Jul 2008 02:41:06 -0500

Thank heavens for FHA financing. Many of today's real estate professionals and consumers have never been exposed to FHA because of home prices in the San Diego market over the past several years. For many of us, FHA was an important part of the housing market in the past. All good things eventually resurface and FHA is one of the bright stars that are shining on this market. I think it is important to identify all of the reasons why this program is so important to the real estate community. Before doing so, it is worth noting that the mandatory seller fees associated with FHA financing in the past no longer exist. All fees are negotiable now - mandatory seller fees were as high as $1500 with some lenders and often discouraged sellers from entertaining offers involving FHA financing prior to this change in policy.

As loan programs go, finding one with a low down payment requirement of only 3% is hard to find. Couple that with the fact that the 3% can be "gift funds" from a relative, you would be hard-pressed to find a more affordable way of accessing homeownership. The following are a list of reasons as to why FHA is so important to us.

•- FHA is not driven by credit scoring. However, most lenders will impose a minimum credit score of 580 to 600. Some lenders do not require having a credit score - in cases such as these we look for three alternative sources of credit to verify a payment history (i.e. rent, gas & electric, cable, etc...).

•- Non-occupying borrowers are allowed to help the occupying borrowers qualify for the loan. In addition, the occupying borrower is not required to have a source of income when a non-occupying borrower is involved.

•- Interest rates are very competitive for all parties - even for those with low or no credit scores!

•- NO adjustments to loan amounts in declining markets are automatically imposed.

•- In the event of a refinance, consolidating a 1^st and 2^nd mortgage into one loan is acceptable.

•- As mentioned above, seller's concessions can be as high as 6%. On low-down payment loans this is unusual and exceptional.

•- The ENTIRE down payment can be in the form of GIFT FUNDS from a relative.

•- Qualifying ratios and underwriting guidelines often provide more flexibility then conventional financing.

At American Sterling Bank we are not only approved to do FHA loans but I also have extensive experience in this sector of the market. FHA experience is hard to come by in this market. Don't let lenders steer you away from FHA - it may be that they are not approved to do FHA loans or that they do not understand them. If you need assistance or would like more information about FHA financing, do not hesitate to call. It is truly a program that can make a difference for many!

I received this today from my good friend, Cindy Choice at Sterling Bank. For more information you can reach her at cchoice@asbloan.com

Keeping Your Pets Cool This Summer

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:47:34 -0500

Now that the temperature is hot, humans aren't the only ones who suffer from overheating. Dogs and cats actually have a harder time than their owners staying cool.

If you own a cat or a dog you should take precautions to help your pet beat the heat this summer. Here, from the Humane Society of the United States, are some tips:

- Recognize the signs of overheating. Heat stress in your pet can include heavy panting, glazed eyes, a rapid pulse, unsteadiness, vomiting, or a deep red or purple tongue.

- If you sense that your pet is overheating, get out of the sun. You can dump cool water over your pet to gradually lower the body temperature. You should also let your pet drink small amounts of water or lick ice cubes. A dog who continues to exhibit these symptoms should be taken to the vet.

- On hot days, limit the amount of exercise your pet gets. You should be especially careful with older dogs, short-nosed dogs and dogs with heavy coats. A good idea is to let dogs exercise in the early morning or at night when it's coolest. During the day, let them sit in a cool area either in front of a fan or in an air conditioned room.

- Don't leave your pet in the car. Cars can heat up fast in the summer, and if left for too long that heat can be fatal for your pet. If you must leave a pet in your car, don't do it for more than a few minutes. Remember to keep all the windows rolled down a few inches and park in the shade. Also, make sure your pet has sufficient water.

- Refrain from bringing your pet to crowded events such as concerts or fairs. The combination of the crowds and the heat can be stressful for a dog or a cat. Be sure to leave pets at home where it'

This message is brought to you today from Lowe's. Lowe's cares about your pets. Visit www.lowes.com for the best advise in all your household needs. Home, family and pets as well.

Hope you enjoyed this. Elissa

FED ANNOUNCES PLANS TO FINANCE FANNIE & FREDDIE IF NECESSARY

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Sun, 20 Jul 2008 18:58:05 -0500

July 13, 2008

The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System announced Sunday that it has granted the Federal Reserve Bank of New York the authority to lend to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should such lending prove necessary. Any lending would be at the primary credit rate and collateralized by U.S. government and federal agency securities. This authorization is intended to supplement the Treasury's existing lending authority and to help ensure the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to promote the availability of home mortgage credit during a period of stress in financial markets

Interested in Genealogy? I love the hunt for my next family member.

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Sat, 19 Jul 2008 22:11:26 -0500

www.footnote.com

FED STIFFENS RESTRICTIONS ON MORTGAGE LENDERS ARTICLE IN THE LA TIMES

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:57:16 -0500

Los Angeles Times

Fed stiffens restrictions on mortgage lenders

The Federal Reserve is clamping down on what it called "deceptive acts and practices" by some mortgage lenders that it says helped lead to the subprime mortgage crisis. The new rules, which apply to all banks and other lenders and specifically target subprime loans and borrowers, will take effect Oct. 1.

MAKING SENSE OF THE STORY FOR CONSUMERS

· The new rules "are intended to protect consumers from unfair or deceptive acts and practices in mortgage lending, while keeping credit available to qualified borrowers and supporting sustainable homeownership," said Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

· The new rules will prohibit loans to borrowers who can't repay the loan from income and assets other than the home's value and will require lenders to verify the borrower's income and assets. Prepayment penalties are banned for the first four years of any adjustable rate subprime loan and for the first two years on other subprime loans. Lenders also must establish escrow accounts for property taxes and insurance for all first-lien loans

· Also banned are seven misleading advertising practices, including use of the word "fixed" to describe a rate or payment that changes at any time during the loan term. Other prohibited practices include loan comparison advertising (unless all payments and rates are disclosed), foreign-language ads where disclosures are presented in English, and encouraging appraisers to misrepresent a home's value. The rules also will require lenders to credit payments on the date of receipt, prohibit pyramiding of loans, and require a good faith estimate of costs and payments on any loan application for a home secured by its value (including home equity loans and refinancings) within three days. Further, borrowers cannot be charged any fees other than to obtain a credit report before receiving that estimate.

News from California Association of Realtors that this market might be short lived

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:54:07 -0500

Bottom's Up: This Real-Estate Rout
May Be Short-Lived

By JONATHAN R. LAING

This real-estate rout has been more painful than prior ones, but it may be shorter-lived. Indeed, there are early signs of recovery.

IA FEW YEARS AGO, AN ACQUAINTANCE SENT Wellesley College economist Karl "Chip" Case a T-shirt depicting a cartoon of a smiley-face house surrounded by soap bubbles, called "Mr. Housing Bubble." But it was the words captured in a comic-book cloud on the shirt that gave this otherwise goofy image its bite: "If I pop, you're screwed!"

The dark humor hardly was lost on Case, co-creator along with Yale economist Robert Shiller of the now-canonical S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. In pairing recent sale prices of U.S. homes with the prices those same homes fetched previously, the index is substantiating what every sentient American knows: The U.S. housing market is in a deep funk, probably the worst in 50 years, according to Harvard's respected Joint Center for Housing Studies.

Home prices are down nearly 18% from the market's peak, according to Case-Shiller, and inventories of unsold homes are at near-record levels. Foreclosures are mushrooming on "subprime" properties, or homes whose purchase was financed with subprime debt. Blowback from the crisis has left mortgage-finance giants Fannie Mae (ticker: FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) financially strapped, while many other lenders lack the stomach -- or money -- to offer new mortgages. Noted market experts such as Pimco bond-fund manager Bill Gross and economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com predict the meltdown in housing will continue for many months, with home prices declining by 10% or more from today's depressed levels.

Yet, such pessimism appears overdone, based on much recent data. Sales of existing homes are showing tentative signs of increasing, while the plunge in prices likely is nearing an end. Total inventories fell in May to 4.49 million existing homes for sale, or a 10.8-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 11.2-month supply in April, according to the National Association of Realtors, in just one statistic emblematic of the nascent trend.

YES, THE SUPPLY OVERHANG still is humongous, but at least the numbers are moving in the right direction, as even Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson noted last week. Speaking at a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. conference, Paulson declared that "we are well into the adjustment process." Inventories of new single-family homes are down 21% from a 2006 peak, he observed, while "existing-home sales appear to have flattened over the past several months, indicating that demand may be stabilizing."

Still other numbers suggest prices are close to bottoming. The S&P/Case-Shiller Index for April, released just last month, showed the biggest year-over-year price decline yet, of 15.3%. Buried in the numbers, however, and widely ignored in the media, was the news that home prices actually rose, albeit slightly, between March and April, in eight of the 20 markets covered by the index (Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Portland, Ore., and Seattle). This was in sharp contrast to the readings for March, which showed prices falling in 18 of the 20 surveyed markets. Also, the pace of monthly price declines is starting to slow in most of the markets with negative readings.

"Other than Larry Kudlow of CNBC, none of the journalists who interviewed me after the latest release seemed at all interested in any of the positive developments," says David Blitzer, chairman of the S&P Index Committee. "They seemed focused on the bad year-over-year number."

In general, transaction-based home-price indexes, including S&P/Case-Shiller, may be painting a bleaker picture of price trends than warranted. That's because subprime housing, though less than 10% of the total U.S. housing stock, accounts for a far larger share of current sales volume, owing to spiraling defaults and distress sales. In the San Francisco area, expensive homes ($721,548 and up) have suffered a peak-to-trough drop in price of only 10.7%, compared with low-priced homes ($473,711 and under), down 40.9%, and mid-range homes, down 28.3%, according to the latest Case-Shiller numbers. The surge in low- and mid-range sales has been sufficient to push average peak-to-trough prices down by 24.6%, despite the index's valuation-weighting.

Help for the housing market also may be on the way in the form of proposed congressional legislation that would allow the recasting of some $300 billion in troubled subprime mortgages through the Federal Housing Administration. The bill, which some have derided as a bailout, would demand sacrifices by both lenders and borrowers, and could help to ease conditions in the subprime market.

Of greater importance, a government takeover of loss-ridden Fannie and Freddie -- the subject of widespread speculation late last week -- would ease concerns about the continued availability of credit in the housing market. Fannie and Freddie, which buy mortgages from banks and repackage them into mortgage-backed securities, are the biggest source of financing for the U.S. mortgage market.

SURPRISINGLY, CHIP CASE, whose knowledge of the housing market goes back decades and is based on the voluminous collection of data, is among those who think home prices may be nearing a bottom. Case notes, among other things, that new housing starts fell to 975,000 in April from a peak rate of 2.27 million in January 2006, and that three declines of similar magnitude -- from more than two million to less than one million -- have occurred in the past 35 years. "Every time this has happened before, housing-market activity has rebounded within a quarter and caught experts by surprise," he says. "In many areas, particularly outside the overbuilt markets of Arizona, Florida and Nevada and the huge bubble market of California, home prices may well stabilize" and begin to recover before the end of this year.

Case acknowledges history might not repeat, as the U.S. could be on the cusp of a painful recession. Unlike the three prior dips of a million-plus starts -- in the first quarter of 1975, the second quarter of 1982 and first quarter of 1991 -- the latest slide was triggered by insensate speculation and suicidal lending practices rather than the traditional factors of rising unemployment and interest rates and slowing economic growth. Thus, he says, a protracted dip in the economy would temper his optimism, though the official measures of economic growth don't indicate a recession yet.

Jim Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Fargo's primary investment unit, expects home prices to steady by year end, with the pace of foreclosures slackening shortly. Most of the subprime debt at the center of the current crisis already has been written down by financial institutions, he notes, while many subprime borrowers who lost their homes are returning to rental units. "Folks who compare this home-price cycle to the one that occurred in the early '80s obviously have short memories," Paulsen says. "In the 1980s the economy was in a deep recession, mortgage rates were at 17% or more, and unemployment [was] hitting a post-Great Depression high of nearly 12%."

THE STEEP DECLINE IN HOME prices -- Case prefers to study the ratio of sale prices to per-capita income in various locales -- already has improved affordability. The change in such ratios varies by market, with Florida, Arizona and Nevada typically tracing short boom-and-bust cycles because any surge in speculative demand quickly is followed by overbuilding, due in part to the abundance of cheap land. The ratio in Phoenix, for example, has been reverting to a more typical six times home prices to income, after soaring to nine times in 2005 and '06.

Most volatile are popular metro areas, such as Los Angeles and Boston, where housing demand is high, along with restrictions on development. Los Angeles' affordability ratio doubled from 2001 to 16 times at the height of the housing boom, before dropping back to around 11. The Boston market never grew so frenzied, perhaps because it was far from the center of the subprime-lending business in Southern California, where an array of bad business practices flourished. Boston's housing-affordability ratio peaked at 12, and since has returned to a more normal nine times prices to income.

WAHT MAKES ME DIFFERENT THEN ANY OTHER REALTOR? WHO IS ELISSA?

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 17:02:43 -0500

I have been a realtor in San Diego for 15 years. I am also a certified and background checked Notary for the State of California. I have two sons and two grandsons. I am honest, ethical and knowledgable about our real estate market.

I work for Windermere Exclusive Properties near the beach in Carlsbad, California and love being near the place where all the tourist and locals come to have fun.

I also run a non profit corportation called Garden of Innocence National and the sole purpose of this it to teach and provide dignified burials for abandoned and unidentified children. I am trying to raise money so I can start a garden in every state. Currently I have a garden in San Diego and have laid to rest over 105 babies. We also have one in St. Louis and getting ready to start ones in Montreal, Canada, Las Vegas, Nevada and San Francisco, California.

I am an ordained minister, but all I want to do is help with grief counseling and marry and bury. Don't want to be trapped inside a church.

I hope if you are coming to look at homes in San Diego county, you will think of me and let me show you around. I can find homes in your search and email them to you ahead of time and even set you up to receive new listings every day so you will know what is happening to the market each day.

There are many homes here for sale and some really good prices. I have never seen the market this low in years. If I had the money, I would be buying homes all over the county, fixing them up, renting them out and waiting for the market to come back.

On that note we get that question all the time. Hows' the market? Have we hit bottom yet? Is now the time to buy?

We don't have a crystal ball as we would have made you listen more to us when we told you to not buy that house at that price, listen to the appraiser, don't get that adjustable loan get a fixed and on and on. But you didn't listen to us and now we are all hurting. The ones that have hit rock bottom are the people that lost their homes. This is so sad as they were all so excited to be home owners.

Yes, now is the time to buy! Will it go lower, I have no clue. But the prices are good and the people are ready, so do it now. You will still be ahead of what the homes would have sold for 2 years ago and I can pretty much say that the price will come back and you will be sitting on a nice property worth more then you paid for it if you can just hang in there.

Call me anyitme, toll free at 888-535-4772 (888-5-Elissa) I would love to share my town with you.

I wish you 'ENOUGH"

My Senior Mobile Home Listing

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:47:33 -0500

This is one of my Senior Mobile home park homes and it is ready to move in and the park is the best in San Marcos, California. I just reduced it from the orginal price $30,000 to $67,900. It is two bedrooms, two baths with two sheds and ready to go. It is spotless and ready to move in today.

$67,900 is all we are asking for this great senior home in San Marcos, California. Shopping, banking and dining is right across the street and you are just one mile from the movie threatre and San Marcos Famed restaurant row, plus all the new great shopping centers close by. You'll find you have a great breeze every afternoon as the beach is only 8 miles away. Please hurry on this one as it is move in ready and waiting for you.

This is a 1976 model but was well cared for and shows pride of ownership. The owner went into assisted living facility and wants it sold. It is the lowest price in the park and the best deal. Call me today about this home and any home in San Diego County.

LETS TALK ABOUT FORECLOSURES!

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 16:39:26 -0500

Be prepared to have money to repair. After viewing many homes in foreclosure, I have learned that once the bank foreclosed on a home, the people that formerly owned the home took EVERYTHING WITH THEM.

You will need to replace appliances, carpet and paint almost every one. Some people took the new kitchen cabinets and left the old ones. One home took the bath tub and then walled in where it used to be. Some even removed the new sod in the back yard. You need to either bring enough money to the table to do repairs and replace items or add extra to your loan to cover the addiional cost.

Buying a foreclosure in San Diego County is the best decision you can make. We are just down temporarily. These homes could double in price when the market goes back up. We don't have a crystal ball to tell us when that could happen but it will happen again.

San Deigo County is the best place to live in the country. We have year around great weather, we have great family places to go. We have the Coaster, Amtrack and the Sprinter trains to get around on. We have the ocean, bay and mountains all within an hour of anywhere in the county. There is plenty to do and plenty to see and play.

Buy a foreclosed property now, fix it up and hold on as you will see great appreciation in the future.

I love San Diego County and you will find that you made the best decision to buy in our area. Just be prepared to buy now, come in with cash or have your loan already pre-approved, not pre-qualified. You have to act fast and not wait around. If you see the one you like then grab it today. Escrow can take as long as 120 days and you need to be prepared for the banks to take up to 30 days just to accept your offer as they are working hard and the pile isn't getting any lower.

Carlsbad, California and North County San Diego

Elissa Davey (WINDERMERE EXCLUSIVE PROPERTIES) — Thu, 17 Jul 2008 15:49:31 -0500

I am a realtor in Carlsbad, California and I cover all of San Diego County and lower Riverside county which includes Temecula, Murrieta & Menfee, which are the closest towns to San Diego County.

My favorite place to live in San Diego is Liberty Station. This used to be the old MCRD training center and they have build wonderful row homes in San Francisco style added condos, and wonderful community amenties such as a great local park and golf course. A promenade with speciality shops suchs as Trader Joes, Coldstones, Ralphs with a garden center in the middle to sit and have coffee and many more shops coming that will add to the delight of the area. You can leave your beautifil row home and walk or ride your bike to the store. There is a great Karate Academy as well, which by the way, my son took first place in their last tournament in Florida last week. There is the Rock Church and a high school academy across the street with other achievement schools as well. You never need to leave your home area. I love Liberty Station.

My next favorite is Oceanside, California. Oceanside has the widest, cleanest beaches with plenty of space to play. Oceanside is the only city in San Diego County with its own harbor, accept for the big on e in San Diego. In our harbor you can dine on fresh clam chowder at Harbor House or a full scale fish dinner at Joes Crabshack. Baja Rockin' Lobster, Monterey Cannery, Jolly Rogers, coffee shops, gift shops, bait shops and also the Helgrens Fishing fleet if you want to go out and catch your own. Oceanside also has the only pier north of San Diego with Rubys Dinner at the end.