"I don't want a "starter" home! I want the home I grew up in. I don't want to do any work and I'm only going to pay this much for it." --Today's First Time Homebuyer

"Yes, I'm aware it's no longer a Seller's Market but I'm not going to give my home away!"--Today's Typical Homeseller

"Buyers are liars and Sellers are nuts!"--80% of Today's Real Estate Agents

"If the government doesn't bail out Wall Street, we're heading into the Second Great Depression!"--The National Media

"The American Public has every right to be upset. It's not fair for the tax payer to pay for the mistakes and greed of our financial institutions. But, we have no choice!"--POTUS

"It's Bush's fault. It's Clinton's fault. It's Wall Street's fault. It's Greenspan's fault. It's Bernanke's fault. I better sell my stocks, cash in my 401K and take my money out of the bank before it's all gone!--Joe Public

Welcome back, to school that is!

In her wonderful article, Inside the Mind of the Consumer, in the September issue of REALTOR magazine, author Wendy Cole quotes a top Chicago broker as he answers the question, "What exactly are buyers and sellers seeking these days?" His answer:

"Nordstrom service, Disney innovation, and K Mart prices!"

Today's "First Time Homebuyer" is a completely different consumer, or "mutant" as one of my salespeople might say, than the FTHB of the past! They have access to too much information and despite all that information, and misinformation, at their fingertips, they seem to take an almost "whimsical approach to determine fair pricing."

As reflected in yesterday's lesson, today's FTHB is convinced prices will drop further. When presented with the data that shows that even if home prices do fall another 10%, and interest rates rise just a half a percent, they will actually be paying more (monthly) for the same house; they just nod their heads and stick to their guns! Why?

For one, very simple, reason: They don't have to buy!

They want to buy but they want to buy the home they grew up in. They don't want to "start out", they want to "move in" and move on...

FIRST-TIME HOME BUYER EXPECTATIONS FOR ‘MOVE-IN' CONDITIONS MAY CONFLICT WITH THEIR DESIRE FOR AFFORDABILITY
New Coldwell Banker® Broker Survey Reveals Possible Disconnect
in First-Time Home Buying Process

PARSIPPANY, N.J., (Aug. 21, 2008) - First-time home buyers are primarily concerned with affordability when choosing a new home, but their expectations may be too high relative to their current financial buying power, according to a recent Coldwell Banker® survey conducted among its brokers. While nearly half of the Coldwell Banker broker respondents reported that affordability was the No. 1 concern for this group, 81 percent said today's first-time home buyers consider move-in conditions to be very important when searching for homes. In contrast, only 7 percent are looking to purchase "fixer-upper" homes that they could buy at a lower price and renovate themselves.

"In the past, first-time home buyers were willing to purchase older, more basic houses in an effort to save money and break into homeownership," said Jim Gillespie, president and chief executive officer, Coldwell Banker Real Estate, LLC. "Today, this group has greater home expectations because they have grown up more accustomed to their parents' lifestyles. It is important for first-time homebuyers to remember that by considering a ‘fixer-upper' for their first home purchase, they can build equity over time and move up and into their second-stage home that better reflects their expectations."

Survey findings also suggest that first-time home buyers worry more about credit ratings and approval than they did a decade ago, but less about down payments. This may be because they have saved money themselves, or have received additional support from parents to help their first-time home purchase.

According to 29 percent of brokers surveyed, first-time home buyers were more concerned with down payments 10 years ago than anything else, while only 17 percent said this is the biggest concern in today's market. Meanwhile, survey respondents said that only 4 percent of first-time home buyers were worried about their credit scores in 1998, while 14 percent said it is more of a concern today.

"Owning a home is a great investment that will provide tax breaks, financial gains - as well as considerable joy over the years," Gillespie said. "First-time home buyers now have higher standards, placing an increased focus on the financial aspects of home ownership and at the same time, want a larger home they can live in right away."

Additional key findings from the survey include:

· 71 percent of brokers noted that first-time home buyers are looking for larger homes than they were 10 years ago.

· According to 41 percent of the respondents, proximity to job is the No. 1 attribute first-time home buyers are looking for in a home.

· 35 percent of the survey respondents said "investment" is the No. 1 reason first-time home buyers are making their purchase.

· 46 percent of the survey respondents reported that first-time home buyers look at five to 10 homes, on average, before making a purchase.

In addition, the survey explored initial reasons that a first-time home buyer contacts a Realtor in today's market and how that has shifted from 10 years ago, according to the Coldwell Banker brokers:


Today's Market vs. 10 Years Ago:

They are ready but want assistance in the process, including identifying neighborhoods, negotiating of price and paperwork: 73% vs. 32%

Because that is what they feel like they are supposed to do: 3% vs. 28%

To view houses / do walk-throughs: 17% vs. 30%

To help with navigating mortgage issues: 1% vs. 4%

They are not ready but trying to better understand the process: 6% & 6%

Methodology: Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC conducted an online survey about the trends real estate professionals are seeing with first-time home buyers. The survey yielded responses from 150 Coldwell Banker brokers across the United States.

Today marked the return to the classroom for school children across Ocean County, NJ. By most accounts it was a long, dry, hot summer. Am I talking about the weather? An interesting analogy could be drawn between this past "Summer Break" and the Summer Real Estate Market here in Toms River...

"We want to be in our new home before school starts."

Traditionally, these words meant the three months of June, July and August were our biggest closing months here at the Jersey Shore. But if we compare 2007 with 2008, two of those three months were down from the same time last year and August of this year was significantly below August of 2007:

Category - Single Family-Toms River
Mo/Yr Monthly Sales Avg List $ Avg Sale $ % Diff Sell/list Avg DOM Curr Inventory Mos Inventory

June 2007     88   $445,644   $425,660   95.52%   80.0     871    9.90
July 2007      81   $402,287   $383,148   95.24%   76.0     877   10.83
August 2007  90   $403,178   $381,372   94.59%   100.0   860     9.56

June 2008     95   $455,884   $427,894   93.86%    99.0    829     8.73
July 2008      79   $391,795   $372,642   95.11%    95.0    806   10.20
August 2008  65   $361,688   $343,605   95.00%  100.0    786   12.09

What do these numbers mean?

Well, lets go "Back to School"!        

As we can see, there were 95 closings, in Toms River, in June of this year, compared to 88 in June of 2007. Which means that these homes probably went under contract in April and May (Peak Selling Season). Nothing new here...

But when we look at July and August of 2008, compared to the same time last year, the data tells us that the homebuyer took the summer off! Why? Good question.

The homebuyer who bought in April and May and closed in June of 2008 was the traditional Nuclear Family. They wanted to be in their new home before school started! But what about the homebuyer who bought, or didn't buy, in June, July and August?

The NAR (National Association of Realtors) estimates that 40%* of all homes purchased this year (2008) will be purchased by First Time Home Buyers! These particular buyers are far different than their predecessors of the last "buyers market", 1990-1993.

Tomorrow, we will go back to school and examine exactly what today's First Time Homebuyer thinks, wants and buys!

*This percentage is probably higher locally (Ocean County, NJ) by about 5%.

NAR Releases June's Housing Market Report:

The National Association of Realtors recently released their housing numbers for June 2008. Here's a brief synopsis:

• Nationally; sales were down 16.4% and prices were down 7.9% versus June 2007
• Northeast; sales were down 19.9% and prices were down 3.0% " "
• South; sales were down 18.2% and prices were down 4.5% " "
• Midwest; sales were down 18.2% and prices were down 4.8% " "
• West; sales were down 10.1% and prices were down 17.2% " "

What does all this information mean? Well, according to the "National Media Outlets", it's the beginning of the Apocalypse! Fortunately for us, there are a few reputable analysts who read the POSITIVE in all these negative numbers.

"Overall, we've seen marked improvement in every region of the country over the previous month," said Steve Murray, editor of REAL Trends. "By no means is this reason to celebrate, but their are telltale signs that could indicate reasons for some optimism. Of particular interest was the increase in closed sales in California, up 6.6% versus June 2007, and Nevada, where sales were up 3.6% over a year ago. With these markets firming, there are signs that the worst may be in the past."

All Real Estate Is Local:

So, how did Toms River, NJ, compare to the Nation in June 2008? Here's how:

• Closed Sales (June 2008 vs June 2007); UP 9%!
• AVG Sales Price (June 2008 vs June 2007) ; UP .05%!

If we look back at the numbers in May 2008 versus May 2007:

• Closed Sales down 8.1% and prices down 6.2%

Toms River, NJ, may be ahead of the Nation in showing signs of firming? It's only two month's worth of data. Let's see what July's numbers say!

and so, misperception is fantasy?

According to most of the major news sources; Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are on life support and Indy Mac should be tried as a war criminal. Combined with the current price for a gallon of gasoline and the "weakness" of the U.S. dollar, one would be INSANE to buy a home today, right?

"Buy Low, Sell High"

That's how one makes money in the stock market. Well, that's also how one makes money in the real estate market! After all, real estate is a commodity, an investment and a tax shelter. But it's more:

• It's a dream (Home Ownership)
• It's a lifetime
• It's a family
• It's memories

It's many different things to many different people. Can anyone place a price on a lifetime, or period, of memories?

20/20 Hind-sight:

Remember the late seventies, early eighties? Remember the late eighties, early nineties? Knowing what we know today, is it safe to say we all would have bought homes then if we could have? Of course we would have! Why then, are we scared to death to buy in the late 0's?

What does all this have to do with real estate in Toms River, NJ?

Everything! Although all real estate is local, perception is not. We, as consumers, are influenced by national and global news, events and yes, trends, or dare I say it, fads. We like to buy what everyone else is buying, when they are buying, and vice-verse.

So, a "bedroom community" within an hours drive of the financial capital of the world, with access to the Atlantic Ocean and the Pinelands, is prone to the same prejudice and social pressure as every other "place to live", or is it?

MLS PROFILE YTD - SOLD

Category - SingleFamily / Area: TOM - TOMS RIVER TWP / County: Ocean

As we can see, Toms River is exhibiting signs of STABILIZATION:

1. There are 6 Price Ranges that are showing increases over the same time last year!
2. $100,000 to $250,000 is HOT; this is the "First Time Buyer's" Price Range!
3. Overall, the market is only down 18% as opposed to the predicted 30% decline!

The Best Time To Buy Was Yesterday:

As interest rates continue to rise, any savings the "fence sitting buyer" was hoping to capitalize on will be washed away even if prices continue to fall!  Currently, interest rates are at the highest level since September 2007. 

Sales and Inventory History for the month of May, 2008, Single Family Homes in Toms River:

As we can see, the Toms River Market appears to be stabilizing; signaling the formation of a "bottom" and positioning itself for the eventual and inevitable "recovery" cycle.  Prices may continue to decline in the next few months as the "pending" inventory closes but...BUYERS RISK A HIGHER MONTHLY PAYMENT for the same home by waiting on the fence because when the "recovery" starts, interest rates rise and even an increase of half a percent may result in some buyers waiting themseves right out of a home!

Month	Year	Monthly Sales	Avg ListPrice	Avg Sale Price	% Diff Sell/list	Avg DOM	Curr Inventory	Months Inventory
January	2007	62	$432,723	$404,088	93.38%	88.0	688	11.10
February	2007	52	$411,500	$389,525	94.66%	105.0	714	13.73
March	2007	81	$460,791	$426,744	92.61%	102.0	729	9.00
April	2007	80	$428,563	$404,167	94.31%	118.0	753	9.41
May	2007	90	$449,094	$430,309	95.82%	86.0	846	9.40
June	2007	88	$445,644	$425,660	95.52%	80.0	872	9.91
July	2007	81	$402,287	$383,148	95.24%	76.0	879	10.85
August	2007	90	$403,178	$381,372	94.59%	100.0	865	9.61
September	2007	58	$398,898	$374,859	93.97%	86.0	861	14.84
October	2007	66	$408,591	$392,563	96.08%	97.0	845	12.80
November	2007	77	$466,345	$435,895	93.47%	96.0	789	10.25
December	2007	57	$434,232	$405,609	93.41%	92.0	742	13.02
Total		882	$428,487	$404,495	94.40%	93.8	799	11.16
January	2008	45	$333,396	$316,134	94.82%	101.0	715	15.89
February	2008	48	$401,981	$382,167	95.07%	99.0	728	15.17
March	2008	58	$402,336	$378,614	94.10%	99.0	773	13.33
April	2008	64	$410,389	$388,173	94.59%	101.0	850	13.28
May	2008	63	$451,179	$420,043	93.10%	84.0	849	13.48
Total		278	$399,856	$377,026	94.29%	96.8	783	14.23

Note:

The "Current Inventory" column reflects the number of active listings on the market on the 16th day of each Month.The "Months of Inventory" column is equal to the "Current Inventory" divided by the "Monthly Sales". This reflects how many months it would take to sell out of inventory at the current month's rate of sale.

Below is the Monthly Market Report for Single Family Homes in Toms River, New Jersey: 

Sales and Inventory History Monday, May 05, 2008
Category - SingleFamily

And so ends the First Quarter of 2008!  Here are the Year to Date numbers for Single Family homes in Toms River, New Jersey:

MLS PROFILE YTD - SOLD

That was the headline of the lead article of the real estate section of Sunday's New York Times; Lowball Offers on the Rise  

I remember discussing a similar article from MONEYmagazine about a year ago.  That author reported that some buyers were basing their initial offers at 15% below asking price and making multiple offers in an effort to locate "motivated sellers".  So what has changed?  In her article, Lisa Prevost reports that today's buyers are now starting their negotiations at 20-25% below asking price...DUH!  It's a BUYERS MARKET!

With almost ALL of New Jersey qualifying as a "declining market", as defined by Fannie-Mae, why wouldn't a "ready, willing & able" buyer LOWBALL?  That was the question I posed to my sales force at our weekly sales meeting based on reading and discussing Ms. Prevost's article.  Sure, in some specific price ranges (under 300K in Toms River, NJ) the buyer risks LOSING THE HOME THEY WANT, but if that is made abundantly clear by their agent, don't be afraid to write it up!

My brother-in-law is the father of three beautiful young girls; all under 6yrs of age.  He has a mantra that he uses to excel at fatherhood, "Embrace the chaos!"  In this "emerging market", the agent's who will succeed, not survive but prevail, will EMBRACE THE CHAOS!  Contrary to the popular press and omni-present myths out there, there are PLENTY of BUYERS around.  And, what's more, the recent mortgage reform regulations have pre-approved them for us! 

As listing agents, we would be remiss in our obligation as SELLERS AGENTS not to inform and educate our clients as to the reality that it is a BUYERS MARKET here, today, now!  The question is, "Do you want to move and get on with your life, or do you want to stay right where you are?"  If the answer is, "Yes, I want to move", EMBRACE THE CHAOS!  Chances are; what ever loss Sellers perceive they are taking will be 'washed out" on their purchasing side.

The article closes with the profile of a FSBO from Northern New Jersey who has her home on the market for $885,000.  She states that she has received "offers in the low $800's and has told them to look elsewhere."  She, obviously, DOES NOT WANT TO MOVE!  Let her stay right where she is, in denial. 

Today's buyers have an abundance of options and historically low interest rates.  Their mantra is "NEXT"!  We all have choices.  I choose to listen to my brother-in-law!

Jim Flanagan, GRI, e-PRO