The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development today released New Home Sales survey data for September 2009.

The survey is primarily based on a sample of houses selected from building permits. Since a "sale" is defined as a deposit taken or sales agreement signed, this can occur prior to a permit being issued. Changes in sales price data reflect changes in the distribution of houses by region, size, etc., as well as changes in the prices of houses with identical characteristics.

The size of the housing market combined with the broad influences it has over the economy make the real estate sector a reliable leading indicator of economic activity. Real estate is one of the first sectors to contract when a recession is looming and one of the first to show signs of recovery when economic activity begins to improve.

Think about the materials that go into building and maintaining a home....WOOD, STEEL, PLASTICS, WIRING, PIPING, CONCRETE, GLASS, ELECTRICITY, FURNITURE, CARPETING ,ELECTRONICS, APPLIANCES....LABOR. 

Last month new home sales increased for the fifth straight month, but the 0.7% gain didn't match the consensus estimate of +1.6%. The August 2009 annual pace of sales was 429,000, 3.4% below the August 2008 rate.

Not only were sales lower than expected, they were also so lopsided that only one of the four areas even experienced growth. Sales in the West jumped 12.1%, but sales fell 16.3% in Northeast and 5.8% in the Midwest,  activity in the South was flat. There was some good news though: five months of sales increases  caused excess inventory to dwindle. At that sales place there was just 7.3 months' worth of supply on the market, compared with 7.6 months' in July and 12.4 months' at the beginning of the year.

This month single family new home sales fell for the first time since March. The annual pace of new homes sales was 402,000 sales per year, well below economist expectations for a pace of 440,000 annual new home sales. This is a 3.6% month over month decline. August new home sales data was also revised lower, from 429,000 to 417,000 sales per year. 

New home supply was unchanged at 7.5 months. The median home sale price was 204,800, 9.1% lower from September 2008.

Here is a table summarizing the survey findings:

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Home prices across the nation improved for in May but remain about 17% lower than one year ago, according to the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

Home prices in May 2009 are at levels last seen in mid-2003, "indicating that the three years of appreciation that occurred from 2003-2006 were all given back in the following three years," said a Case-Shiller press release.

Since prices peaked in Q2 2006, the 10-City Composite has fallen  33.3%!!! Yikes!

Regionally, annual price declines remain biggest in the West and the South. Home prices in Phoenix have plummeted 34.2%, while prices are down 32.0% in Las Vegas. 26.2% in San Francisco, and 25.2% in Miami. Here is the summary of results for May

As I have mentioned previously, there are close to $400,000 NOD and foreclosure filings that have not moved forward in the beginning half of 2009.  It will be interesting to see what happens if and when these properties hit the market.

The shift has changed almost instantaneously here in the Bay Area from a cold and quiet climate to multiple offers, overbidding, and a LOT of buyers writing offers!  According to the SF Chronicle "Bay Area home prices rose month-over-month for the third straight time as sales reached their highest level in three years in June, fueling hopes that the limping real estate market is slowly beginning to heal."

The median price paid for an existing, single-family home across the nine-county region was $360,000 in June, down 29.4 percent from a year earlier but up nearly 7 percent from May, according to San Diego research firm MDA DataQuick. A total of 6,518 existing, single-family homes traded hands last month, up 27.8 percent from a year ago.

Transactions across the region have now increased on a year-over-year basis for the past 10 months. Just above 37 percent of the resold homes had been foreclosed upon in the last 12 months, well off the peak of 52 percent in February (and wow! 52%!).

This data clearly indicates that low interest rates and low home values are finally getting buyers off the fence and in the market, which in turn is keeping inventory in check, the two critical components of a recovery.

Being a lender I am amazed to see how many all cash offer I compete against on a weekly basis as well.  Obviously if you have a first time buyer getting in with less than 5% down on a transaction that will need 45 days to close or you have an all cash offer - $20,000 lower than ours, but will close next week, it's pretty obvious which offer the seller will take especially in this environment. This does show however that both investors and first time buyers are out there moving the lower priced inventory.

DataQuick noted that the percentage of properties that sold for more than $417,000, the traditional "jumbo mortgage" threshold, rose to 28.8 last month, its highest level in nearly a year.  This tells me the "move ups" and higher income earning individuals are starting to take advantage of the market.  I know many of my clients who were waiting to sell and move up have finally received offers on their homes and are back in the market looking for higher priced inventory.

The other side of this story is that lenders issued 391,611 foreclosure filings to California property owners in the first half of the year, up almost 14 percent from the previous six months, RealtyTrac of Irvine reported. The filings include everything from default notices, the first stage in the foreclosure process, to the final step of bank repossessions.

I know many agents who focus all there time on listing REO's and shortsales and many of them who would have upwards of 50 or 60 listings and currently they have three or four showing the slowdown of foreclosure proceeding however they all agree there is a lot of distressed property coming on the market soon.

It will be interesting to see if there are tidal waves of distressed inventory awaiting us what effect will that have on values? How bad could it really get after what we have already been through? 

The Home Affordable Refinance Program was designed to assist borrowers who have demonstrated an acceptable payment history on their existing Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac owned mortgage loan. Unfortunately due to rising unemployment levels and increasing foreclosure rates, demand for housing has weakened and property values have continued to decline, which has blocked many borrowers from utilizing HARP.

I have been working with a few clients with very little success on these HARP programs.  I am currently working with my cousin who lives in Central California.  He has owned for over ten years.  Did a modest debt consolidation refinance back in 2005 and his house appraised for $450K. He is now looking at a value of $185K and owes about $220K. Because vacant homes have sprouted across his neighborhood he actually pays his son to mow the lawns of these REO's to keep people from trashing the properties and keep the neighborhood esthetic up.

He has a perfect payment history but cannot refinance due to the current state of his neighborhood.  I know this is not a new story and has been going on for years now but his Fannie Mae owned loan is not refinanceable under HARPs current guidelines. This is the very same program that was meant to help people like my cousin who have been great responsible borrowers lower there payment into a 30 year fixed rate.  I think if the borrowers profile is good we should take the appraisal out of the equation.

The expansion of Fannie Mae's and Freddie Mac's LTV guideline aims to expand qualified homeowner's refinance opportunities. The underlying initiative is that lower monthly mortgage payments will raise real household incomes and therefore afford more spending power upon consumers. I don't know if the 125% mark will make a big difference.  The homes that qualified at 105% LTV back in April when the product first came out are probably looking at 125% LTV now due to declining values.