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This is kinda urgent, so take a minute to think bout it...
* In order to obtain the First-Time Homebuyer Credit, you must settle by November 30th, 2009 * It can take 6 weeks or more to hear back from a bank, if they approve your short-sale purchase * If you wrote the offer today, you would be hearing back on October 15th (Hopefully!) What if the bank says NO?
If you conservatively figure that it takes 30 days to settle, you would have two, MAYBE three weeks to find and agree to a contract on a house. Given the number of buyers in the market now, the fact that almost all first-timers are FHA borrowers, and the other inspections, etc. that must be done, there is going to be quite a crunch as the deadline approaches. Do you really want to wait 6 weeks to hear from the bank considering all of that?
Of course, there is talk about extending the first time buyer credit, but it is not guaranteed. And if you are a gambler, you might win. If you don't buy, and the credit ends, you are out $8k. If you don't buy and the credit is extended, you may win. Why? Because a good deal (OK most) of the demand in the market right now is being generated by the first timers...... extending the credit will diffuse that demand, and lower demand = lower prices.
As you can imagine, I spend a great deal of my working time speaking to people about their real estate needs. Given the current state of the market, the conversation is consistently focused on money, and more specifically, on rates, fees, and dollars.
But it is important to step back sometimes, and think about why someone is contemplating a real estate purchase or sale to begin with. No one ever says, "I have X dollars to spend, and I have decided to spend them on a house." No one ever says, "Now that rates are at X, I have decided to purchase a house." What they say is, "I want to move to a better school district," or, "I want to move closer to my grandchildren," or, "We have outgrown this house."
It is critically important that you work with an experienced agent, who is able to help you clarify your goal, keep you focused on it and then achieve it. That's why it is never about the money. It is very easy to become focused on fees, expenses, deadlines, closing costs, inspection repairs, and thereby lose sight of your goal. All those things are just the means to an end. It may be a great time to buy if you are a first-time home buyer, because of the $8,000 tax credit. But it might not be. It might be a great time to refinance or move up at 4.75%, but it might not be.
It's not just about the money! Please keep that in mind when you think about your next real estate move. Do you trust your agent enough to share your hopes and dreams, and make them part of the process?
For January 2009, Howard County saw the number of homes sold decrease 9.16% from 131 to 119, with a 14.41% decrease in median price, from $359,040 to $307,300. The Average Days on Market increased 13.45% from 119 to 135.
The Ellicott City area saw the following for January 2009:
Ellicott City West-21042 A 41.18% decrease in the number of homes sold (17 to 10), with a 21.42% decrease in median price from $600,001 to $471,500, and a 42.11% decrease in the Average Days on Market from 152 to 88.
Ellicott City East-21043 A 20% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 20 to 16), with a 2.51 % increase in median price from $336,500 to $344,958, and Average Days on Market increased 26.80% from 97 to 123.
For January 2009 the Elkridge area saw a 50% increase in the number of homes sold (from 10 to 15), with a 0.79% increase in median price from $317,500 to $320,000 and Average Days on Market increased 82.50% from 80 to 146.
The Columbia area saw the following results for January 2009 compared to the same period last year:
West Columbia- 21044: This area saw an 11.76% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 17 to 15), with a 5.26% increase in median price from $323,000 to $340,000, and Average Days on Market remained the same at 126.
East Columbia- 21045: The Eastern portion of Columbia saw a 30.77% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 26 to 18), with a 22.99% decrease in median price from $296,711 to $228,500, and Average Days on Market decreased 21.67% from 120 to 146.
South Columbia- 21046: This area experienced an 18.18% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 11 to 9), with a 19.17% decrease in median price from $399,900 to $323,232, and Average Days on Market increased 36.75% from 117 to 160.
During January of 2009 the Woodstock area saw the number of homes sold increase 100% from 2007 (3 to 6), with a 26.73% decrease in the median price from $524,900 to $384,583, and Average Days on Market decreased 0.85% from 235 to 233.
I am sure you have all heard about the takeover of Fannie and Freddie. Now we are starting to see headlines that imply that we have lost (or should have lost by now) our faith in the free market system.
What you won't hear is how the government required Fannie and Freddie to continually make housing more "available" to more buyers, especially moderate income buyers. You won't read any articles about how Fannie Mae was pushed into the sub-prime market by these goals. I equate it to stockholders who demand ever-increasing returns- eventually you will reach a state of diminishing marginal returns, and then something different must be done to satisfy the demanders.
As the subprime market expanded, and other investors got into the market, more competition for subprime borrowers was created. So, for Fannie and Freddie to capture any of that market (as mandated) they had to compete in the arena that existed at the time.
When the government forces a company to serve a certain market segment, that is NOT the free market!
I use a company called Fastmail for my e-mail, and they seem to know what they are doing, so when they posted this on their blog about Microsoft stopping access to Hotmail I thought I should pass it along.
I was saddened to read about the tragic death of another agent recently. An untimely death is extremely difficult for everyone involved, and even touches the hearts and minds of those of us who have never met, but share something in common, like our profession.
As a police officer for over 20 years, one of the most difficult exercises we ever experienced was the case study of a line of duty death or serious injury. In fact, the FBI gathers statistics surrounding officer-involved deaths, and has come up with a list of "fatal errors" that officers make time after time. There is a significant amount of training and support for this process, and one can only imagine how many officers' lives have been saved by studying those who were not so fortunate.
I wonder if it is not time for someone in the real estate industry, or perhaps the NAR to undertake just such a mission. It is not pleasant to do, it is certainly not pleasant to discuss, and it needs to be done in the spirit of prevention and not second guessing. Until the matter is studied with precision, it is difficult to be truly prepared, and while you cannot guarantee safety, when an agent is lost to us in the same way that has happened before it is even more tragic.
We have all heard the stories about the open house, the model home, the stranger, and those are all risks for sure. But how much time do you spend alone driving your car? If you were to die in an auto accident driving between appointments, would anyone realize that you were working? Would that information be passed along to fellow agents? Do agents suffer from medical or other conditions at a higher rate than others because of the long hours, stress, and sometimes the isolation of being so independent?
Do you think that if the process were handled with dignity and respect, that this information could be presented to our industry with positive results? If you think so please let me know.... I think it is about time that this was pursued more comprehensively at the national level.
While there has been some variation among the zip codes, the bottom line is that home sales have slowed significantly. That is to say the number of homes sold, not necesarily the price. As I frequently tell people, to determine what prices are doing you really have to look to the neighborhood, or even street level for any precise analysis. With the various housing types and price ranges, broad averages can be instructive, but there really are apples and oranges all in the same "price average" basket.
For March 2008, Howard County saw the number of homes sold decrease 44% from 314 to 175, with a 8.24% decrease in average price, from $444,801 to $408,152. The Average Days on Market increased 28% from 106 to 136.
Ellicott City West-21042 An 57% decrease in the number of homes sold (40 to 17), with a 4.73% decrease in average price from $565,055 to $538,311, and a 13% increase in the Average Days on Market from 122 to 138.
Ellicott City East-21043 A 13% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 39 to 34), with a 5.9% increase in average price from $453,860 to $480,746, and Average Days on Market decreased from 125 to 113.
Woodstock 21163 The Woodstock area saw the number of homes sold decrease from 9 to 4, with a .21% increase in average price from $521,000 to $522,084, and Average Days on Market decreased from 166 to 89. A large portion of the sales in this area are generated by the Waverly Woods development, which is nearing completion. The last phase of the development includes a large of group of over-55 condominiums, which are significantly less expensive than the prior communities which were sold, and a final section of NV Homes Townhomes starting just under $500k.
Elkridge- 21075 The Elkridge area saw a 33% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 30 to 20), with an 18.54% decrease in average price from $367,833 to $299,640, and Average Days on Market increased 79% from 78 to 140.
West Columbia- 21044: This area saw a 43% decrease in the number of homes sold (53-30), with a 20% decrease in average price from $397,017 to $317,577, and Average Days on Market increased 37% from 80 to 110.
East Columbia- 21045: The Eastern portion of Columbia saw a 40% decrease in the number of homes sold (from 47 to 28), with a 11.6% increase in average price from $315,000 to $319,500, and Average Days on Market increased 79% from 78 to 140.
South Columbia- 21046: This area experienced a 57% decrease in the number of homes sold from 19 to 8, with a 4.7% decrease in average price from $373,037 to $355,238, and Average Days on Market increased 140% from 69 to 166.
Howard County is still located between Baltimore and Washington, still has one of the highest per-capita incomes in the Country, and still has an excellent standard of services from the County Government. Those, combined with the development trends in the Eastern County, in Laurel, Savage and Elkridge, as well as the impending arrival of the BRAC personnel, will continue to cause Howard County to experience level or appreciating home prices in the long term.
For 2007, Howard County saw the number of homes sold decrease from 4057 to 3467 (a 14.54% decrease), with a .58% increase in average price, from $453,751 to $456,372. The Average Days on Market increased from 55 to 86.
The absorption rate is the number of homes absorbed (sold) in the market over a period of time. This is a useful measure when examining the market. Last year the market absorbed an average of 288 homes per month. There are currently 1611 homes for sale in Howard County. With an absorption rate of 288 per month, it should take 5.5 months to sell the current inventory.
Surprise! According to the National Association of Realtors, when the inventory stands around 6 months, that is historically a normal market. While it may not feel normal to those of you who are new to this type of market, those of us who have been working in real estate and studying this for a while know that the recent past was in fact an aberration, and we are now trending toward a more normal market. In fact, when I became an agent in 1998, conditions were very much the way they are now.
So, last year prices stayed about the same, we have under six months of inventory, and we are in what is usually described as a normal market. Yes mortgage rates are fluctuating (at really low levels) and yes there are foreclosures on the horizon. However, our area has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the Country, a great location, the impending BRAC relocation, schools recognized for excellence, and a crime rate that others envy.
Given all of that, perhaps it is time for everyone to take a deep breath, look at the facts as opposed to the "news," and get back to buying houses to live in, steady appreciation, and long term investing. In ten years, we will all be looking back wishing we bought more real estate! [I]
How Many Marylanders Even Know About the Annapolis Tea Party? There is always a lot to learn in any profession, and real estate is no exception. However, I never thought that this learning would be a history lesson. I am helping a client sell Bushy Park Farm in Glenwood, Howard County Maryland. The farm dates back to 1771, when it was originally part of a 1300 acre estate, in what was then Anne Arundel County. Dr. Charles Alexander Warfield built the home for his wife Elizabeth Ridgely.
Apparently Dr. Warfield was an active member of the Whig Club and the Sons of Liberty. After the Stamp Act of 1765, there was much concern about the level of taxation from the Crown. In 1774 the Brig Peggy Stewart was in the harbor at Annapolis, when it's owner, Anthony Stewart was forced by Dr. Warfield and other members of the Sons of Liberty to burn the ship.
The More Things Change the More They Stay The Same While this is not a political blog, I can't help but note the irony of this home going on the market amid all the discussion in Annapolis and the rest of the State about taxes. For those of you outside Maryland, the Governor recently called a special session of the General Assembly to raise taxes. The actions taken during that session are currently the focus of legal action by the Republican Party, as apparently there were some procedural issues that were supposedly handled improperly. In addition, the scope of taxation was expanded to computer services with almost no notice, and the effects of that change are still being reviewed. Perhaps computer services will become the new Tea?
190 Acres of Majestic Pastoral Beauty I will admit that each time I visit Bushy Park Farm, I am struck anew by it's beauty as I turn on to Carrs Mill Road from Rt 97. As the crops and land use change, as the seasons changes, it is like a new revelation. It almost feels like a portal back to a simpler time. The manor home, which features 8 bedrooms, is a stately vintage colonial, re-built in 1993 on the original foundation from 1771. On the rear window sil, in the cement below the window, is the word Charles, written with a finger. One can only imagine who may have written that.
The property also features numerous outbuildings and barns, a machine shop, and other agricultural buildings. It even has the footprint of the prior training track for racehorses, from it's prior use as part of the Maryland horse racing industry. In the center of the track is a stand of trees which mark the beginning of Cattail Creek, which meanders South into what is some of the most luxurious residential housing in Howard County.
The property, which is in the Maryland Agricultural Preservation Program always generates discussion within the community. Bordered as it is by two schools, and adjacent to a County Park and close to new commercial development, it's location is truly where old meets new. All the farmers in that area know that the farm was placed in "ag preserve," as they call it over 25 years ago. In the original agricultural preservation law, an owner could ask that the property be removed from the program if it could not be "profitably farmed" after 25 years. There is much conjecture that the property may be able to withdraw the agricultural easement, but that is a question for another post.
To see the beauty of this farm, click HERE and then check the virtual tour. Then impress your friends by telling them about the Annapolis Tea Party!
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