Since January 2011, standard sales have increased from 29% of our active market to 41% and sales have climbed from 25% to 38% of sold homes in Southwest California. While about 2/3 of these continue to be flipped properties, good old-fashioned ‘normal’ sales make up a growing percentage. That’s a good sign for the market. But those ‘normal’ sellers aren’t finding as many ‘normal’ buyers as they might like. At least not at first blush. 

The market’s changed – I hope that’s not a news flash for you. Most areas are having half price sales on houses, three-for-one condos. Buyers who should be taking advantage of these deals are either

 A) unable to because they have no equity in their current home, or

 B) able but too uncertain about the future to act.

That leaves

A) first-time homebuyers who are thrilled to have their own roof over their heads and don’t care if prices climb or drop a little in the short run, or

B) Investors taking advantage of this perfect storm of low priced inventory and record low interest.

Both groups are used to making offers on short sales or bank REO’s, so they don’t customarily start with their best offer first and never the asking price. This is coming as quite a shock to some ‘normal’ sellers as lowball offers not just 3%-5% low are coming in, but offers 15% - 20% below their asking price. And they’re often shocked and insulted.

As you have every right to be - for a couple minutes. Then you need to put your personal feeling aside and put on your business panties. Your first tendency will just be to frag them and not even counter-offer. WRONG. Once your agent talks you through that little crisis, your second emotion says – counter at full asking price, we’ll show them. Wrong, too.

Why? Because it’s an offer in hand and that’s key to getting your home sold. No offers = no sales. (That’s profound – you have my permission to use that phrase). And you never know if or when the next one might come along. They’re not insulting you personally, they’re just playing the game by the current rules of engagement (Statistically, one or two might be insulting you personally, but it’s just not worth worrying about). Buyers know there’s going to be a premium paid for the convenience of a well maintained live-in home and if they love it they’re going to buy it. Eventually.

With this next move, you’ll sift the wheat from the chaff, as it were, the bottom-feeders from the buyers. If you back off a little from your asking price (which may have been a little high to begin with, if we’re being honest), you’ll show them you’re serious but approachable. The cads, the bounders and the bargain hunters will know not to waste their/your time but the ‘normal’ buyer who just may be in love with your home, will come to the dance.

You may have to exchange offers several times before coming to a mutually satisfactory agreement because you share a common goal, which is to wring every last nickel out of that house. And there’s more riding on the ‘win’ these days. When times are good people will happily overpay a little just because they’ll quickly make up the difference. Ehhh… not so much today.

In closing, I encourage you to keep this positive thought in mind. As soon as your place sells and you’re ready to buy your next dream home – you’re going to be in the buyer’s seat. And I’m guessing you’ll be just as scandalous and rapacious as the worst buyer you ever faced. Your lips whisper no, no, but your eyes ….

Of course that’s just my opinion – I could be wrong.

To all my ActiveRain friends - always good visiting with you from time to time here in the Rain. Let's work for an improvement to our market in 2012.For EVERYBODY'S sake.

From Lisa & I to you and yours, Merry Christmas,
Happy Holidays and may 2012 be your best year ever
(or at least a close 2nd).

Trout Lake, CO

... and just for giggles - here's a pic of me in 1957. I'm the little fella being held up in the truck. Back then Telluride CO was just a little mining town with maybe 450 hardy souls. On Christmas Day we'd all head downtown in front of the Court House and get a present from Santa. Usually it was a bag with an orange, maybe a few walnuts and some of that wonderful colored ribbon candy.  
That's the old Sheridan Opera House bhind us.

The guy holding me up there is a rancher by the name of Gene Adams. Gene was a great guy whom fortune smiled upon some years later when his ranch turned out to be bedrock for the Telluride Ski Corporation. Needless to say, Gene don't work the ranch anymore.

Merry Christmas to all, and to all...

I am genuinely perplexed and am hoping someone here can help me out. I've been reading about this Keystone XL pipeline that's got everybody atwitter. As I understand it, the Canadians are going to extract oil from sand in their own country. Their first offer was to ship it to our country via pipeline crossing several states (many of which already have oil refining/transport facilities in place) to reach refineries in the mid-west and/or the Gulf Coast. Have I got that right?

• Doing this would reduce our dependence on foreign oil imported from countries that don't like us much to begin with and can charge us whatever the hell they want to. These countries have minimal human rights/womens rights and have involved us in wars for the past 15 years. 
• Opponents are upset because this doesn't do anything to reduce our dependence on oil as a fuel source. I understand that but we're a long ways away from that independence and a cheaper source of fuel would go a long ways toward helping everybody today, wouldn't it? If you could reduce your transportation and home heating bill by 1/3, wouldn't that be a boost to people in danger of losing their homes?
  
• It would create a load of jobs - I'm reading anywhere from 4,000 to 20,000+ of medium to higher paying jobs. Opponents claim the jobs would be lower paying and only temporary while the pipeline is being built. So what's wrong with 10,000 or 15,000 decent paying jobs for a few years while the rest of us recover? I realize even 20,000 jobs is just a drop in the bucket relative to the unemployment figures but at least these would be real jobs, not the made-up BS that's foisted on us these days. Democrats primary power base the labor unions sure seem to be backing this part of the plan.
• It's not like if we turn it down the project just goes away. After Obama's attempted punt until after the elections, the Canadians entered talks with the fastest expanding fuel user in the world, China. They'll simply reroute the pipeline from this country to their west coast where it will be loaded on tankers and shipped to China for refining. 
• Isn't there a greater risk to the environment from hundreds of Chinese boats plying the oceans and coastal waterways than would be experienced from a single static pipeline? How many catastrophic leaks have we experienced from the Alaskan pipleline during the past 30 years? Tanker accidents? Off-shore drilling leaks? 
• Is there no concerned about the lack of processing standards in China where both the refining process and the finished product would be far more detrimental to the environment than cleaner processed products produced locally? After all, just last week CBS did a feature piece on how Chinese pollutants are already entering our air stream from the abundance of coal fired plants and other manufacturing facilities. We need more from their oil refineries? 

I'm not looking to start an argument here, I'm really looking for somebody to explain to me why they're protesting this.  

Dane Wunderlich here - the less seasoned member of the team, with a special holiday offer for our ActiveRain family. After a hectic day helping buyers and sellers, I like to unwind by doing a little woodworking. Last year, being mostly broke, I made some heart shape boxes for family members. Their friends saw them and I ended up getting a lot of requests for more. So this year I've amped up my production during this slow real estate season to make a selection of custom wood boxes that are selling pretty well. The push to buy local, to buy custom, to buy something truly unique and hand-made rather than some mass produced Chinese doo-dad has struck a nerve and I've been shipping boxes all around the country. (Thank you Pay-Pal). 

Each box is a one-of-a-kind product and are great for storing jewelry or any number of other stashable items you might have. A standard box measures about 6" tip-to-tip and side-to-side and about 5" - 6" deep, depending on the wood. But I've built them large enough to hold CD's and can build most any size you want.

My most popular model is a Red Cedar and Pine box that produces a beautiful color contrast. And since I leave the interior unstained, you get that rich Cedar smell every time you open your box. 

I also make boxes out of Maple, Teak, Mahogany, Birch and Poplar. If you have a special request, if I can find the wood, I can build the box. Some boxes also feature custom inlays of Teak or Mahogany contrasting accents on the top.

All boxes are fine sanded and either custom stained or hand rubbed with Tung Oil for a natural finish bringing out the beauty of the natural wood. Custom lid-keepers of the same or contrasting wood keep your box tightly closed and secure.

Boxes can also be laser etched or inlaid with custom graphics, stained, antiqued or wood burned. 

Up in Sacramento, our state capitol, there's a great little restaurant about 2 blocks from the Capitol called Frank Fat's. It's been there since 1939 and over the decades it's earned the sobriquet 'The Third House' because it was a popular gathering place for legislators, lobbyists and governors - along with California's business and financial leaders. It's been said that more successful legislation has been concluded over a dish of Honey Walnut Prawns at Fat's than was ever conducted up the street. Tales of politicians from opposite sides of the aisle fighting like cats and dogs during the day resolving their differences over dim-sum are legendary. From Ronald Reagan to Willie Brown, Pat Brown to Jerry Brown - they all got the business done for our state.

But no longer. Oh, you still see politicians, lobbyists and business leaders enjoying a meal at Fat's.,But today you won't see Democrats and Republicans dining together. That's something that's changed over the past 20 years in Sacramento and perhaps even more-so in Washington DC. And it's why we see FAIL after FAIL in the political arena today. Everybody's talking past each other in sound bites - nobody talks to each other anymore.

Our political process has grown more polarized, more hyper-partisan and less accommodating than ever before. Cooperation and compromise are seen as signs of weakness, Hacks who could never get elected themselves, like George Soros and Grover Norquist, pull strings from our statehouse to the White House - to our detriment. 

But to some extent it has to be a reflection of the way we ourselves have headed for opposite ends of the spectrum as people, or at least as voters. We claim we want compromise but only select our electeds from the wings of each party. We refuse to accept any candidate who falls from ideological purity. Moderates and independents are gone. If you don't believe me, look no further than the following charts taken from the National Journal and CBS News showing the statistics for the U.S. Senate for the past 30 years.

In 1982 there were 60 Senators deemed 'Moderates' based on their voting records and self-professed ideology. This was the fertile middle ground where stuff got done, bills were passed and the needs of a moderate populace were served.

A dozen years later, that number had shrunk to 36. Still a good size group and capable of reaching a compromise so that good bills were able to be passed.

A scant decade later that number had shriveled to 9 - the art of compromise had been lost, the era of polarized partisan politics was upon us.

Today it should come as no surprise there are none. And nothing gets done - they can't even pass a budget for our nation. Yet statistically we will re-elect some 86% of these same party die-hards to office next November. Why? Because in spite of the problems we know we have, it's YOUR Congressman's fault, mine is good. 

BULLSHIT! They're all hacks. And if you insist on re-electing the same right-wing nutcase or bleeding heart liberal, you only have yourself to blame. Most people I meet are neither far right nor far left and most understand the need for compromise in their own daily lives.  Why can't that same rationality be reflected in the people we elect to represent us? 

Of course that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.

The four biggest banks in the country now control 62% of all bank assets in this country, up from 54% five years ago when housing/banking troubles started. According to the Wall Street Journal, 

• JP Morgan/Chase assets have increased from $1.3 trillion to $2.3 trillion 
• Bank of America has grown from $1.4 to $2.2 trillion 
• Citibank has edged up from $1.8 to $1.9 trillion 
• Wells Fargo has gone from $.5 to $1.3 trillion 

During the same five year period, housing prices have tumbled by 50% or more in some markets and home sales, job growth and consumer confidence continue to stagnate across the country.. 

These banks that were billed as 'too big to fail' were massively bailed out by the federal government. They have used that money to shore up their profitability, pay executive bonuses and gobble up smaller banks that were not 'too big to fail'. Meanwhile they steadfastly refuse to clean up the problems they created and have held a true recovery in the housing market in abeyance by allowing the foreclosure crisis to drag on and refusing to inject private capital into the mortgage market. 

They continue to spend lavishly trying to overthrow those portions of  Dodd/Frank that limit their ability to soak the public (i.e. debit card swipe fees) while attempting to circumvent older regulations preventing their entry into real estate and other investment markets. 

Too big to fail? Or just too big to nail? Maybe a couple high profile perp-walks would catch their attention. Any of you federal law enforcement types, regulatory weenies or other do-gooders got the balls to sweat Angelo under the bright lights? Naw, I didn't think so. 

And the beat goes on.   

As I watched and read the news accounts of the recent breakdown of the Occupy camps in New York and Los Angeles, I couldn't help but recall a little sticker I kept on my bookcase for years - a memento of a Grateful Dead weekend in 1987 that read - "Deadheads Leave Only Footprints". For that event, some 15,000 Deadheads descended on Telluride Colorado, population (at the time), less than 1,000. Locals marveled when the horde migrated on to the next venue after a week that they left the landscape nearly as pristine as when they arrived, and in some cases, cleaner. 

Contrast that to the remnants of a few hundred 'occupiers' and the detritus of their two month campout in Los Angeles where clean-up crews yesterday moved in wearing haz-mat suits to remove some 25 - 30 TONS of garbage. Among the souvenirs left in the tents - hundreds of 2 liter bottles of urine and shopping bags filled with 20 pounds of human feces. City Hall employees were cautioned to use side entrances to get to work as workers dealt with lice, maggots and other infectious pestilences.

Add to that an estimate by LA Mayor (and Occupy ally) Antonio Villaraigosa, that it will cost the city close to, or more than, $1 million dollars to bring the park back to its previous condition for public use, replacing sod and sprinkler systems and general other repairs and destruction caused by the Occupiers. That's just repair work - it doesn't include the cost of clean-up and the hundreds of overtime man hours by the LAPD, or the up-tick in crime in other areas because police were concentrated on the Occupy area rather than doing their customary patrols. 

All that to accomplish...? There was never a coherent message posited by the group. While costing taxpayers millions, they ranted about income inequality. While reviling the wealthy 1% they took hand-outs from union organizers, the same people bankrupting the state with their fat-cat pension plans. Free education? Free healthcare? Free housing and no more foreclosures? Who pays for that? 

Oh yeah, that would be the 98% who are not the wealthy 1% or the <1% Occupiers - us poor dunderheads paying the tab for your summer campout in our public parks. 

Here's a thought - this winter, while the cold weather makes it 'inconvenient' to carry on your heartfelt protest - DO SOMETHING POSITIVE! Maybe read up on the capitalist system you seem to despise so much and find out why, with all its imperfections, it still appears to be superior to any other economic model that's been tried around the world.

You  might also read some history and maybe the biographies of those 1% you despise. Because you know what? With few exceptions those people weren't always rich. But instead of hanging out in parks demanding that somebody else clean up after them they pulled themselves up and got rich on their own. They had an idea. They started a company and put people to work. They saw a need for a product or service and took steps to fill that need. That's what this country is about - not free handouts to the disaffected, lazy and useless.

If you don't want to do what's necessary to enrich yourself on Wall Street, don't disparage those that have dedicated their lives to that pursuit. If you don't have the foresight to see a market niche, or the courage and conviction to pursue it, don't bitch about those who take that extra step. If you don't like the inequality of income in the country today, develop your skills as an actor or an athlete and make way more money than your talents might deserve. Or become a Kardasian or a Snookie and make millions for no apparent reason at all. The opportunities are endless for those with imagination and desire. Fortunately for them (and you), intelligence is optional.  

Oh, and here's another thought to ponder during the long winter of your discontent - maybe cut your hair, remove some of your more visible facial piercings, don't get any more tattoos on your face, take an occasional shower and learn to speak reasonably comprehensible English. All of those things will go a long ways toward helping you cope with reality. After all, in spite of what you would like to believe, life really isn't fair. Sometimes it downright sucks - been there, done that, got the T-shirt. 

My Dad, a miner by trade, died when I was 10. I worked in that same mine to put myself through college. A MINE! Think that's fun? Easy? What I wanted to be doing with my summers while friends with richer families went to camp or just hung out? And I'm proud to say that both my kids, neither of whom has attended college (much to my chagrin), are both entrepreneurs and have carved out niches where they are happy and successful, if not exactly rich. 

So I'll close with some quotes from Thomas Jefferson. He was our third President, you know, and was an activist during our country's founding. He didn't camp out in parks and crap in a baggie, he had a goal and started out to effect real change in a system that did not work. 

If you think corporations are bad today, here's what old Tom had to say about them back then -  "I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of our monied corporations which dare already to challenge our government to a trial by strength, and bid defiance to the laws of our country." We didn't crush them then, but the effort to control their hold on our government continues. 

To those of you who think hanging out in the park for months on end is actually accomplishing something, Tom had this to say - "Determine never to be idle. No person will have occasion to complain of the want of time who never loses any. It is wonderful how much may be done if we are always doing."

And finally, as to your demands that everything should be free, here's some sound advice from Tom - "The democracy will cease to exist when you take away from those who are willing to work and give to those who would not."

Of course that's just my opinion. I could be wrong.  

Anybody interested probably already knows about this and has been enjoying and downloading these tunes all month. But there may be a couple of you that don't. This is the 2nd time this year that the Grateful Dead net has released a song a day from the vault for our listening and downloading pleasure.

Why are they giving away music for free, you ask? Well, again most of you know but a couple of you may not be aware that the Dead always encouraged taping of their live music shows. Unlike most bands that aggressively endeavor to stop any taping or recording of shows, the Dead always made sure there was a special reserved section for tapers. And we're not talking just your Saturday afternoon cassette deck over the head taping, although there were always a few of those. There were some pro-style set-ups and folks that toured the country in their Blue Bird buses taping hundreds of hours of music. It's probably a safe bet that there is no other band in the WORLD with as many hours of concert footage preserved in private stashes as the Grateful Dead. Millions and billions of magnetic particles holding on to some very classic memories.

Anyway, you can click on the logo there and download this months freebies - and while you're at it, buy yourself a tie-dye ya old hippie..

Almost exactly a year ago I told you about yet another effort by bureaucrats obsessed with controlling our lives (When Fireplaces are Outlawed, only outlaws will have fireplaces) - in this case the South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) and their 'Check Before You Burn' Initiative. That blog and subsequent article burned up a lot of people, including a spokehole for the SCAQMD who called me to point out some inaccuracies in my blog.

The inaccuracies were predicated on information available from the SCAQMD at the time and had to do with the scope of the ban. At the time the only published 'exemptions' to the ban were people living above 3,000 foot elevation who relied exclusively on wood heaters as a heat source. I had pointed out that there are many who live below 3,000 elevation who have similar constraints including many elderly and fixed income who utilize it as their only heat source, or those who relied on wood as a primary heat source based on their ability to pay for alternative sources like electric or gas, or those who live in areas where the natural gas alternative is not available. I was told that individual exemptions might apply to them. Whoohoo!

I also questioned their claim that fireplaces in the 4 county area emit more pollution than all the power plants in the Southland. They legitimized that claim because most of our local plants are either nuclear or gas fired. Those may emit more pollution but not the type of small particulate pollution (PM 2.5) that is their goal with this ban. And never mind that a good chunk of our power is imported from Arizona, where coal fired plants are the norm - by their statistics they can honestly say that's not a California problem. 

So the fact that 95+% of our particulate pollution is derived from other sources like factory, diesel, auto and power plant emissions, SCAQMD is pushing ahead with their plans and have announced the beginning of their 2011-2012 ban season citing the 'fact' that an estimated 5,000 people a year die prematurely from particulate pollution in this region. Really? Is this statistic spun from the same fertile minds that estimate that 5 or 5.5 or 6 (depending on which of their sources you read) tons of soot a day  are produced by fireplaces? And, according to their website, those averages can spike to as much as 10 tons a day in the winter 'when people are more likely to use their fireplaces'. Really? 

So apparently even during the 8 months of summer we have here, people are still using their fireplaces to produce 5 or more tons of soot a day? I know afer sweating through a 110 day, there's nothing I enjoy more than curling up with a cold beer in front of a warm fire - it's an ambience thing. Do these people even proofread the crap they post on their own website? 

Doesn't matter. Don't confuse us with facts and don't ask questions we prefer not to answer. From now through the end of February, just comply. What happens if you don't and your neighbor calls to report wood smoke coming from your fireplace? I'd start by kicking your neighbors butt, because you may be fined $50 for the first offense, $150  for a 2nd and $500 thereafter, although the AQMD says they would 'probably' warn you first and just send you a little brochure about the hazards of wood smoke.  

As an asthmatic myself, I have a keen appreciation for clean air and the necessity to do all we can to achieve clean air goals. But I question whether criminalizing the use of fireplaces and encouraging neighbors to rat out neighbors who do is the intent of federal clean air legislation or just another California wing-nut knee-jerk. I don't believe for a minute that this over-reaching BS is necessary or effective   BUT IT'S THE LAW.   So just be a good little doo-bee and do what they tell you. 

You'll need to go online every day (www.aqmd.gov) to check your region for no-burn advisories. If you don't have an internet machine in your home, you need to call every day (866-966-3293). You can also get tethered to the AQMD by signing up for a daily email or twitter notification by visting www.airalerts.org. 

In the event of a no-burn advisory in your immediate area, the AQMD has approved the following non-polluting source of heat for you and your family. Gather round, kiddies. This has been a public service announcement.