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With no economic reports coming out today and bond traders cringing about the Treasury auction of $24 billion of 10 year notes after yesterday's 3 year auction garnered only a C+, stock futures were on the the rise this morning.  It seems Big Macs and Mc just about anything elses are still popular here and around the world as they showed strong earnings today.  The world's largest money manager, Blackrock, is bullish on stocks.  A fed spokesman said that home values have stopped sliding and with all that the Dow managed to gain just 5 points today

 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 16 basis points today at 103.88 having been able to remain just below resistance formed by the highest levels of all time.  Interest rates are at a level which is encouraging yet another round of refinancing.  We have a 5/1 ARM availabe at 2.625% for loans up to $1,500,000. with no addons to pricing.  It is no wonder the rich get richer having to pay such low interest rates.  Combine that with capital gains on their investments being taxed at 15% and life is beautiful.  Conforming rates are great as well.

 

Stock futures pointed wisely to a poor opening in equity markets today.  A continued lack of solutions in the Euro sphere caused uncertainty to prevail over any particular direction.  The velocity of money indicator continued at a slow pace, preventing any appreciable increase in economic activity or inflation.  The Fed's infusion of cash into Treasuries and MBS bonds has done little to spur investment in production or small business.  Confidence is required to encourage business owners to invest in new employees.  The country needs a giant dollup of enthusiasm.  The Dow rose 32 points on the day.  Snooze on!

 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 9 basis points today at 103.72 having remained near the historic highs of recent days.  There was very little economic  news to cause MBS bonds to move.  On the geopolical front, news from Greece was as typically vague as that to which we have become accustomed.  They just cannot or will not finalize the agreement on the investor haircut.  My frustration is building.  A C+ on today's Treasury auction was perfect indicator of at truly humdrum day in the market.  Rates remained predictably unchanged.

 

Stock futures opened lower this morning as they once again felt tremors from the perpetually unresolved status of the Greek bonds and the investors haircut debacle.  Why can't they settle this issue once and for all?  There were no economic reports due out today so it seemed that this Ouzo induced stupor would permeate trading for the entire day.  On what turned out be the lightest trading day of the year, each of the three major exchanges closed down minimally with he Dow down 17 points.

 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 9 basis points today at 103.81 having recovered from Friday's sell off and gained back a little ground.  The long term trend for MBS bonds has been positive for quite some time with a short term bias for locking in order to take advantage of this incredible low rate environment.  Clients seem to be less concerned with jockeying for a .125% rate reduction when they know rates are at their all time lows.  The 30 year fixed was available at 3.75% once again today.

 

Stock futures opened flat this morning as there had been little activity in Europe and traders were holding their positions close to the vest in advance of tomorrow's jobs report.  Initial jobless claims remained low at 367,000 below expectations of 375,000 and improved the moving average.  A report on retail sales showed that as many outfits showed gains as losses and that was kind of the way it went in stocks today.  The NASDAQ and S&P showed moderate gains while the Dow closed down a slight 11 points.

 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 9 basis points today at 104.03 (yes over 104.) having passed the all time high level and gone where no MBS bond had gone before.  I know I have been telling you for years that every 50 basis point movement in the underlying MBS bond equates to a .125% change in the interest rate.  In this case, however, rates are already so low that banks may be reluctant to publish rates any lower that they are now.  The 30 year fixed loan remained at 3.75% today.

 

Stocks took a powerful step this morning on news from China and Germanyy that economic and production levels were up.  The Italian 10 year notes were yielding less that six percent today down from their highs over seven.  This good news served to unfold much of the "safe haven" trading that has been helping Treasuries and MBS bonds remain at high levels.  Also good news on jobs encouraged stock traders.  The S & P 500 charting exhibited a "golden cross" which occurs when the 50 day moving average passes the 200 day moving average.  In past this pattern has meant large gains for stocks.  The Dow closed the day off its highs up 83 points.

 

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 3 basis points today 103.91 having remained near all time high pricing despite a surging stock market.  MBS bonds which were down early in the day proved resilient today despite yesterday's closing candlestick and its negative demeanor.  Many times in the past when bonds have reached such incredibly lofty levels a swfit correction has occurred.  We will watch carefully to see how things play out this time.  The 30 year fixed was available at 3.75% today.

 
 
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Jeff Jensen

Greenwich, CT

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Connecticut Home Mortgage

Office Phone: (203) 429-1061

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