Consumer Confidence up Sharply - 11/29/11 05:21 PM
After an extended losing streak stocks experienced their second consecutive day in the plus column.  Although today's gain paled before yesterday's stong advance, the positive results may begin a trend.  European finance ministers were meeting today to try to hammer out a stronger plan to shore up their banks and minimize the global fallout from their poor housekeeping.  A strong consumer confidence reading complemented the European news.  The Dow which had been up as much as 100 points closed up 32.
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November 29th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/29/11 05:14 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 10 basis points today at 101.94 having remained above the double support offered by the 25 and 50 day moving averages.  For the second consecutive day both bonds and stocks manged gains although today both were moderate.  Fed Presidnet Jane Yellen sugggested this morning that the Fed may be in a position to purchase additional MBS bonds in an attempt to keep the housing market moving.  Bonds turned positive on that news.  The 30 year closed the day once again at 4.0%.
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Black Friday Sales Boost Stocks - 11/28/11 05:39 PM
It seems the only black element of Black Friday was that the selling started at night.  Retailers report that sales were up 20% from last years weekend sales.  Positive about retails, as one would expect, sent stocks catapulting forward.  Combine that with much improved results from European markets and the rally was on in full measure.  The Dow which was up over 300 points for much of the day, faltered late but then rallied to close up 291 points.  We will see if this progress will continue when consumer confidence figures come out tomorrow.
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November 28th Mortgage Market Wrap-up - 11/28/11 05:32 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 25 basis points today at 101.84 having once again risen through the double resitance offered by the 25 and 50 day moving averages.  Today was one of those unusual days during which both bonds and stocks traded in a positive direction.  Continued uncertainty about the Eurpean debt crisis allowed bonds to advance despite a strong rally in the stock market.  Markets exhibited a strong reversal from early morning losses and the 30 year fixed closed the day once again at 4.0%.
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A Surprise Reason to Give Thanks - 11/25/11 02:03 PM
When I arrived home from work on Wednesday, having fought through the brutal holiday eve traffic, my wife handed me an overnight envelope from Chase.  I have my mortgage with them and, since I always pay my mortgage on time, I wondered what on earth they had sent me.  As it turns out, there was a nice cover letter tellingme  that, "It seems like responsible homeowners like you...are the only ones who haven't received mortgage 'relief'".  They were offering me a .375% reduction in the my rate with no cost to me whatsoever.  What a pleasant holiday surprise and yet another reason … (2 comments)

Euro Woes Ruin a Good Day - 11/25/11 01:55 PM
Continuing uncertainty and disarray about Europe's debt problems and the capability of German banks and others to withstand the stress brought on by the smaller Euro economies caused stock futures here to point downward.  Upon the open however, stocks were able to move ahead slightly after the open and were at one point during the session the Dow was up over 100 points.  With no economic reporting traders were buoyed by reports of strong sales at the malls.  In the end the Dow succombed to the Euro issues once again and closed at its low for the day down 25 points.
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November 25th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/25/11 01:46 PM
Mortgage backed securities(MBS) closed down 31 basis points today at 101.62 having fallen below support offered by the 50 day and 25 daymoving averages.  The next level of support below will be determined on Monday.  During today's holiday shortened trading session, any volatility was accentuated by the low trading volume.  Good news from the malls about large turnouts for "Black Friday" sales caused bond markets to turn sour on the day after our Thanksgiving holiday. 
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Happy Thanksgiving - 11/25/11 01:39 PM
Thanksgiving
 
 
There are so many things to be thankful for
Where might I begin?
Little faces to adore
And finally tucking them in
 
Little boys and little girls
To perpetuate our race
Simple toys and pretty curls
And a smile on every face
 
Relatives of all shapes and sizes
Available just when you want them to be
Playing games and winning prizes
Sharing a meal and laughing with glee
 
Warming up by a roaring fire
Winter’s rosy red cheeks
Finding a book that you desire
And reading it for weeks
 
Inner peace to … (0 comments)

Chinese and German Worries Trouble Markets - 11/23/11 04:38 PM
Despite good news on several fronts the bourses in Europe and stock markets here started off the day on bad footing once again.  Chinese manufacturing numbers were way off and Germany, which had been the stalwarrt of the European countries, experienced rising yields on its bonds.  Investors are concerned that their share of the troubled securities is so great that they may soon experience debt problems.  Neither a third consecutive week of initial jobless claims under 400,000 nor low inflation numbers could bring traders out of the doldrums.  Maybe a nice Thanksgiving meal will help.  The Dow closed the day down … (2 comments)

November 23rd Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/23/11 04:30 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 6 basis points today at 101.94 having been able to remain just above support offered by the falling trendline below.  With many traders having left early for the holiday weekend, the market can be subject to wide swings as the volume of trades drops off.  Big news today in the private mortgage insurance (PMI) business.  The insurer known as PMI filed for bankruptcy.  If they have enough claims to bankrupt them, think of the federal government guaranteeing all the FHA loans.  The 30 year fixed rate remained at 4.0% today.
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November 22nd Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/22/11 05:25 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 12 basis points today at 102.00 having closed above resitance previously provided by the falling trend line.  With MBS bonds 80% overbought, it is hard to see them going much higher.  That having been said it seems as if the "safe haven" trade will trump just about anything these days.  Traders were buoyed by an "A+" today at the $35 billion Treasury auction.  Depsite our credit downgrade by S&P, the world continues to flock to our security in a crisis.  The 30 year conforming loan remained at 4.0% today.
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3rd Quarter GDP Estimate Falls a Little More - 11/22/11 05:02 PM
As the government issued its news downgrading the progress for the 3rd quarter GDP from 2.5% to 2.0%, the wailing and gnashing of teeth on Wall Street could already be heard this morning.  Word that the International Monetary Fund had commited funds to assist Europe in dealing with its monetary crisis brought the Dow from down 100 points into the positive for a brief period.  Comments by some Fed members after the close of their meeting opened the possibility of some additional accommodative measures.  Even that was not enough to keep the Dow from closing down 53 points.
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Stalemate Embarrasses Congress - 11/21/11 05:52 PM
Woe was everywhere in and around Wall Street today, the protestors not withstanding.  Not only were European markets nervous about their own debt issues, but now they had to worry about our debt problems and our vast inability to make any more progress that the Greeks.  To think that twelve duly elected, highly placed legislators, under the eyes of the entire world, could not come to agree on one cent of deficit reduction, is in one of Spiro Agnew's favorite words, unconscionable.  At least Spiro would have bribed someone to get something done. The Dow at one point off was many as … (1 comments)

November 21st Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/21/11 05:43 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 22 basis points today at 101.88 having once again broken through resistance posed by the 50 day moving averange and come to rest just below the falling trendline.  With uncertainty rampant from just about any Eurpoean country you wish to select, the safe haven trade returned with strength today as money flowed in from a staggering stock market and from across the globe.  The 30 year fixed rate remained at 4.0% as the Treasury auction received an "A" rating.
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Dow Eeks Out Slight Gain on Diminished Numbers - 11/18/11 05:16 PM
Stock futures pointed toward an improved climate for traders after stiff losses earlier in the week.  Before the market opened good news came in from Boeing as they landed their largest commercial order ever from Lion Air in Indonesia.  Stocks began to build on some profit taking and bargain hunting.  Further aiding stocks was news from Europe that the yield on Spanish and Italian debt was falling symbolizing some easing of fears in that region.  All those collective positive items, however, were ablee to push the Dow up only 25 points.
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November 18th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/18/11 05:08 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 22 basis points today at 101.62 having once again fallen below support offered by the 50 day moving average and remained just above the 25 day moving average.  There was no new economic reporting today and the news on the European front was surprisingly muted.  So with nothing to propel them forward, MBS bonds slid backward slighty.  Part of the reason may have been the impending sale of an additional $99 billion in Treasuries next week.  At the end of the day the 30 year was still available at 4.0%.
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Stalemate in Congress Keeps Stocks in Red - 11/17/11 05:44 PM
Stock futures pointed downward early this morniing and, despite some good economic news stocks, fell throughout the day.  Weekly new unemployment claims were down again this week pushing to the lowest levels seen since April, seven long months ago.  Although housing starts were off slightly, housing permits were up pointing to a strengthening housing market.  The super budget committee is not making any progress out of the quagmire that is partisan politics.  Add in renewed fear over European debt and you have arecipe for another selloff in stocks.  The Dow closed off its lows but still down 134 points.
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November 17th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/17/11 05:35 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 12 basis points today at 101.84 having managed to break through resistance offered by the 50 day moving average and settled in just below resistance at the falling trend line.  "Safe haven" trading continued today as the debt worry flavors of the day were Spain and France.  With stocks selling the way they were, one would have the thought MBS bonds would have made a greater showing.  But as the closing candlestick indicates, the market is not certain it is ready to make a broad advance.  The 30 year fixed closed the day at 4.0%.
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Fitch Sheds Doubt about Safety of U.S. Banks - 11/16/11 05:47 PM
With a number of economic reports due out today, stock futures opened slightly lower.  The retailer Traget showed better than expected levels of profit and the Consumer Price Index came in down .1% versus the increase of .2% that was expected.  This good news was not nearly enough to overcome the continued uncertainty over the European debt crisis.  Stocks went into a serious swoon toward the end of the session as the Fitch Ratinng service said that the level of debt in the Euorpean banks could have a serious effect on U.S. banks.  The Dow closed down 190 points on the … (0 comments)

November 16th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/16/11 05:39 PM
Mortrgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 6 basis points today at 101.72 having tested resistance offered by the 50 day moving average prior to closing just below it and just above the 25 day moving average.  Despite additional "safe Haven" trading today, MBS bonds were not able to complete a break upward.  The closing Japanese candlestick did leave a positive sign, however, as the bond closed near its high for the day.  The conforming 30 year fixed loan was available today at 4.00%.
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Merkel Sheds No Light - 11/14/11 04:56 PM
Stocks traded lower today in reaction to a number of doom and gloom type reports that were issued in Europe over the weekend.  German Chancellor Angela Merkel was particularly damaging to traders yesterday when she said that Europe is currently in its worst economic situation since the end of World War II.  This combined with continued uncertainty about the many countries which are effected there provides little solace to equity markets across the globe.  At least Warren Buffett has enough confidence about our country to build a $10 billion holidng in Dow giant IBM.
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November 14th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/14/11 04:48 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed  up 6 basis points today at 101.66 having briefly broken through resistance offered by the 50 day moving average prior to settling back into a tiny spot below that and above the 25 day moving average.  There was no economic reporting scheduled for today and markets here experienced light volume.  Stocks were somewhat lower but certainly not enough to regenerate the "safe haven" trade.  Stochastic readings are not dramatic enough to push bonds in either direction.
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Things to be Thankful for - 11/11/11 06:34 PM
After thinking long and hard about those things about which I am thankful, I came up with the following list. I hope you enjoy them as much as I enjoyed thinking about them.
 
 
 
There are so many things to be thankful forWhere might I begin?Little faces to adoreAnd finally tucking them inLittle boys and little girlsTo perpetuate our raceSimple toys and pretty curlsAnd a smile on every faceRelatives of all shapes and sizesAvailable just when you want them to bePlaying games and winning prizesSharing a meal and laughing with gleeWarming up by a roaring fireWinter’s rosy red cheeksFinding … (1 comments)

Qualified New European Leaders Give Credence to European Reforms - 11/11/11 05:04 PM
Stocks rebounded once again today from Wednesday drastic sell off.  It seems both the Greek and Italian governments will be receiving new Prime Ministers.  Both men are learned experienced former members of European Community organizations.  Lucas Papademos, Greece's interim Prime MInister, is a former ECB Vice President and had a reocrd of strong economic growth at the Greek Central Bank.  Mario Monti, is distinguished economist and academian with a calm demeanour quite unlike that of the shifty Berlusconi.  He is likely to take power tomorrow.  As the new lenders are identified stock traders felt a lot better.  The Dow closed up … (0 comments)

November 11th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/11/11 04:44 PM
Bonds markets including the MBS market were closed in observance of Veterans Day today.  Stock markets were open and observed their normal schedule. 
Happy Veterans Day.  Let us honor and remember all those who have served our nation.
This message is being sent on 11/11/11.  Here is hoping everything you strive for comes out #1.  In the military when the results of your physical yielded a “1” in each of the six categories evaluated (e.g. 111111) that was the best rating you could get and it was called a picket fence.  I wish you all picket fences throughout your lives.
 
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Mollification of European Crisis Quells U.S. Traders - 11/10/11 05:24 PM
After yesterday's panic selloff, stock futures were geared up and ready go this morning.  Lower yields on the Italian bonds and a pat on the back to France from Standard and Poors helped U.S. stocks advance.  The French rating was maintained at the triple AAA level that we recently lost depite their large holdings of Italian and Greek debt.  Sprinkle in one of the lowest ititial jobless claims reading in months and we had a recipe for recapturing some of yesterday's losses.  The Dow closed up 112 points today.
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November 10th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/10/11 05:17 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 41 basis points today at 101.59 having fallen through support offered by the 50 day moving average and wound up just above the 25  day moving average some 17 basis points below.  For the second straight day the Treasury auction went poorly receiving just a C- rating.  Today's auction of 30 year bonds is always harder to market that shorter term Treasuries because they are in competition with MBS bonds and many other products.  At days end the 30 year fixed rate was up to 4.0%.
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Debt Crisis Italian Style Clobbers Stocks - 11/09/11 05:32 PM
After recent advances as the Greek debt crisis appeared to stabilize, stocks had a perfectly miserable day today.  Traders were running for cover even at the thought of buying stock futures this morning.  With no major economic reports being issued today, doubt, about Italy, Europe's third largest economy, was rampant .  GM's presence in Europe caused its shares to sell off today adding to "the sky is falling" mentality in the pits.  Tomorrow weekly unemployment claim numbers which have been improving will be released.  The Dow was down 389 points.
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November 9th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/09/11 05:22 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 22 basis points today at 102.00 having broken through resistance offered by the fallling trend line prior to closing 36 basis points below it.  The "safe haven" trade was back in place today but the protagonist was no longer Greece but now Italy.  With rumors swirling about Berllisconi's guile and veracity, as we have seen so many times recently, money flowed out of stocks and into bonds.  The 30 year fixed rate closed the day down to 3.875% for high quality borrowers.
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Stocks Cheer Berlusconi Resignation - 11/08/11 05:03 PM
Stocks, which had been down early in the day, bounced back nicely when Italy's Prime Minister agreed to resign today when he was unable secure more than 50% of the vote conducted this afternoon.  This combined with stronger than expected corporate earnings from European corporations, a more positive outlook on the economy on a National Federation of Independent Business survey and MacDonalds showing a solid increase in worldwide sales.  The Dow liked all the good news and closed up 101. points at 12,170.
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November 8th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/08/11 04:55 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 26 basis points today at 101.81 having dropped to within just four basis points of support offered by the 50 day moving average before bouncing slightly above it.  International matters sorted themselves out a little bit today with Italy's embattled Silvio Berlusconi agreeing to resign as soon as the budget austerity measures are passed by the Italian Parliament.  This served to remove uncertainty and the "safe haven" trading from stocks came to an end.
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Europe's Bizzare Politics Continue - 11/07/11 06:14 PM
Stocks opened the day slightly higher before succombing the increased uncertainty create by this weekend,s see saw reactions and machinations in Greece.  Friday night's somewhat surprising vote of confidence was basically a last ditch effort to remain in the European Union and keep the bailout program moving ahead.  Greece desperately needs the billions it will receive later this month.  As Greece seeks to form a new government, Berlusconi in Italy is making every effort to cloud the chances of his continuing in power.  Whata  world we live in.  The Dow closed the day up 86 points.
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November 7th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/07/11 06:04 PM
Mortrgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 16 basis points today at 101.97 having closed almost at the lowest level of the day.  With no ecomonic reports due out today, bonds came out of the gate nearly flat.  The weekend's activities in Europe created all sorts of speculation and uncertainty.  Traders were probably expecting more "safe haven" trading as Italy's debt and politcal crises came closer to center stage.  As the day moved on bonds began to sag before closing with a sorry looking Japanese candlestick.
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Greek Events Continue to Roil U.S. Markets - 11/04/11 05:23 PM
Who would ever think our friends and allies across the pond would fill us with such anxiety.  Day after day and week after week our markets are wrenched with angst and uncertainty.  Even with the referendum vote apparently off the table, we are forced to wait interminably for the results of the confidence vote on the Greek Prime Minister.  Since it is now after 5 PM on our east coast it is after 11PM in Athens and we are still waiting for the midnight vote.  They couldn't vote in the afternoon?  The Dow which was down over 200 points during the session … (0 comments)

November 4th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/04/11 05:12 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 38 basis points today at 102.16 having tested support at both the 25 and 50 day moving averages prior to bouncing back up an closing near its high.  With the Jobs report behind us, this posistive closing should bode well for MBS bonds in the short term, although the stochastics are at 75% indiciating some degree of being overbought.  The 30 year fixed conforming rate closed the week at 4.00% leaving it only .375% above the all time low.
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November 3rd Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/03/11 05:27 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 38 basis points today at 101.84 having remained in the area between support and resistance.   It must be noted, however, that MBS bonds closed near their lows for the day.  Normally that would bode poorly for coming sessions.  With tomorrow's impending Job's report, however, if the jobs numbers do not meet expectations, all bets could be off.  Freddie Mac lost $6 billion last quarter even after they have already garnered $169 billion in bailout money.  The 30 year conforming closed the day at 4.0%.
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Greeks Flirt with Scylla and Charybdis - 11/03/11 04:44 PM
It seems that Greek politics are worse than ours when it comes to quarreling factions actually reaching an agreement.  With various present and former Greek Prime and Finance ministers making assertions, the referendum regarding the bailout program was on and off again ad infinitum.  The latest word is that the opposition leader has agreed to the the program, while also calling for the PMs resignation.  The net effect of all this is that stocks have made up over half of Monday's and Tuesday's losses.  The EC bank cut rates by .125% and weekly jobless claims finally fell below the 400,000 mark.  … (0 comments)

November 2nd Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/02/11 04:40 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed flat today at 102.25 having shot up approachhing resistance at 102.47 and fallen down toward support at the 25 day moving average.  All the anticipation for the day revolved arount the statement from the Fed after its two day meeting and the ensuing news conference with Fed Chief Ben Bernanke.  When Big Ben said that the economy is strong but the labor market is weak and that the FED may buy some MBS bonds, bonds shot up before settling flat at the close.
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ADP Knocks Greek Woes Out of the Headlines - 11/02/11 04:28 PM
Stocks moved sharply higher out of the box this morning.  After two days agonizing about the potential for a referendum about the Greek debt program, traders had some positive news to consider this morning.  The ADP jobs report, which we know from experience is not always accurate, showed that 110,000. new private sector jobs had been created in October.  In addition, Challenger, Grey and Christmas reported the fewest layoffs since June.  The Dow, which was up aorund 200 points, lost some steam after the Fed release its statement, but the rallied to close up 178 points.
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November 1st Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2 - 11/01/11 04:16 PM
Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 56 basis points today at 102.38 having shot up to test resistance at 102.47 before falling below as the trading session came to a close.  The bonds are positioned well as they remain above both the 25 and 50 day moving averages which provide a sold level of support.  The "safe haven" trade was in full force today as various Greek officials played political games which dangerously drove world markets.  This incredibly selfish grandstanding may have serious reprocussions both in Greece and around the world as events unfold.
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Greek Politicians Toy with Global Markets - 11/01/11 04:09 PM
A statement yesterday from Greece's prime minister that he would be putting the decision as to whether Greece would go along with the haircut and bailout program sent global markets reeling once again today.  Combine that with poor reports on industrial production both here an China and stocks were plummteing for a second straight day.  A mid-afternoon staement by a former Greek Finance minister brought stocks back a little bit.  This is too puerile and too dramatic to believe.  At 3:50 the Greek Prime Minister proclaimed that the vote would indeed be held.  Stocks closed at their lows down 297 points.
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