Jeff Jensen's Blog

Jobs Still Too Hard to Find and Keep

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 31 May 2012 14:54:43 -0700

Stock traders were greeted this morning with a disappointing ADP report on May job creation. At the same time the number of new jobless claims was up to 383,000 which was 10,000 more than last week and 15,000 more than the street expected. The second adjustment for the GDP was down to a 1.9% improvement. Tomorrow government jobs report should be the talk of the street as experts hear if the 150,000 jobs they expect were created. A good number could allow for a little advancement in equities after a sour month of May.

May 31 Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 31 May 2012 14:42:04 -0700

Mortgage backed seccurities (MBS) closed up 25 basis points today at 105.30 having venture once again into record territory for the 3.5 coupon. The 10 year Treasury also hit another record dipping down to a yield of 1.56%. A bevy of bad economic news was greeted with joy buy bond traders who revel in bad news. The ADP jobs report showed only 133,000 new jobs were created in May, while the street hoped for 150,000 or more. The 30 year fixed rate was available at 3.625% again today.

May 30th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Wed, 30 May 2012 15:12:34 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up a whopping 50 basis points today at 104.78 setting a new record close for the 3.5% coupon bonds. At the same time the 10 year Treasury, which normally trends in the same direction as MBS bonds, closed with a yield of 1.62% also breaking the all-time record set 60 years ago. Real concerns about Spain's banking system and renewed worries about Greece leaving the Euro sent cash flying from stocks and like a boomerang right back into the "safe haven" trade. The 30 year was available at 3.625% today.

May 29th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Tue, 29 May 2012 15:44:45 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 6 basis points today at 104.28 having come to rest just 10 basis points below resistance offered by the recent record high. MBS bonds enccountered significant headwinds today as stocks improved for the fifth time in six sessions. There was some bad news that helped traders limit losses in the face of the high flying equity markets. Consumer confidence fell to its lowest levels since January. The 30 year fixed rate was a 3.625% for a few moments today.

May Freedom Ring!

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Fri, 25 May 2012 15:02:45 -0700

Stock futures were flat this morning as traders waited to see how Consumer Senitment reading would look. When it came in at 79.3, the best reading since October 2007 and beat the prognoticators' expectations once would have expected stocks to jump. Not in this wacky world, however, with new worries about Greece leaving the Euro keeping stocks down. The S & P and the NASDAQ has slight losses whilee the Dow closed down nearly 75 points at 12,454. The markets will closed Monday in observance of Memorial Day. Let us all take time to remember our gallant brothers and sisters who paid and are paying a great price that we might live in peace. May the sounds of freedom ring for us all to hear!

May 25th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Fri, 25 May 2012 14:53:51 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 16 basis points today at 104.34 having broken through the first level of resistance above prior to falling back just under it. As I discussed yesterday there was very little traffic during today's holiday shortened trading session. MBS traders headed out this afternoon with the last of them leaving after the 2PM close. A strong consumer sentiment number had little effect on bonds as money came out of stocks into bonds. The 30 year was available at 3.875% today.

Holiday Weekend Caused Rapid Swings in Markets

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:13:23 -0700

Stock futures pointed higher this morning in anticipation of initial jobless claims and durable goods reporting. After small initial gains, the stocks began to slide on word of a deepening recession in the UK. Stocks continued to sputter despite a slight drop in claims and a solid durable goods report. Equity markets also encountered volatility as a result of the hastening retreat of traders as the weekend approached. Having been down most of the day the Dow cruised to the close with a 33 point gain as the NASDAQ lost 10 points.

May 24th Mortgage Market Wrap=up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 24 May 2012 15:03:36 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 19 basis points at 104.19 having fallen below the resistance offered by the recent high close. As is typical on holiday weekends, the number of traders diminishes quickly as the holiday itself approaches. The result produces light trading which means that a small number of trades can affect the market. Today's loss was a result of this dynamic. Today's Treasury auction only garnered a B minus rating but had little effect on the day's results. The 30 year closed the day at 3.875%.

Stocks Dive then Soar to the Close

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Wed, 23 May 2012 14:38:01 -0700

Stocks did not have a chance this morning after the computer maker Dell missed earnings goals and the news from the former Greek Prime MInister that Greece may leave its association with the Euro hit the presses. Markets across the world reacted adversely with the Brazilian stocks being off more than 3% at one point. A 3.3% increase in new home sales did little to assuage nervous traders. Then the head off the International Monetary Fund said that we are facing the greatest economic problems since the Great Dpression. In the face of all that, as bonds sold off stocks came flying back. The Dow which had been down around 200 points during the day closed down only 6 points and the S & P and the NASDAQ had small gains.

May 23rd Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Wed, 23 May 2012 14:27:09 -0700

Mortgage backed securities close up 9 basis points today at 104.38 having climbed back up in baby steps toward resistance offered by the recent record high closing. MBS bonds traded in a tight range today and closed in the middle of the days range. A rare late afternoon alert to lock came as bonds hit 25 basis points below their mid-morning pricing points. While there was doubt about Greece's future is the Eurozone, the "safe haven" trade really never got going. Buckle your seat belts as overnight news from Europe could roil markets.

World Matters Keep Dow Stuck in a Divot

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Tue, 22 May 2012 14:14:56 -0700

Stocks began the morning following yesterday's pattern of advancement. Shortly after the open, news of a 3.4% increase in existing home sales was released. This should have had a more positive reaction, but stocks never really got rolling. Late in the day the former Greek Prime Minister announced what no one wanted to hear. He suggested that they are considering leaving the Euro. At the same time the White House stated that the European econony presented a "headwind" for our economy. The Dow craled to a 1 point loss.

May 22nd Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Tue, 22 May 2012 14:05:59 -0700

Mortgage backed secuirites (MBS) closed down 9 basis points today at 104.28 having come to rest just 3 basis points above the former highest of all time level of support. Despite the fact that stocks really did not do much today and that the auction of 2 year notes garnered an "A" rating, the recent downward movement and the grossly overbought stochastics kept MBS bonds in check today. Be careful when discussing what rates are as many of the averages quoted by the media include points or partial points. A forty day lock on a 30 year fixed rate was available at 3.875% today.

Greece Garners G8's Graces

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Mon, 21 May 2012 15:19:35 -0700

Stocks which had lost ground in twelve of the thirteen previous sessions were due for a turn around and today it arrived. Good news from Europe about making every effort to keep Greece in the Eurozone fold, gave traders reason to buy today; and buy they did. All three major markets had healthly gains today as short trades were disassembled. The G8 leaders spoke and equity markets took note. Fed President Lockhart left the door open for additional stimulus and the Dow closed up healthy 135 points.

May 21st Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Mon, 21 May 2012 15:10:23 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 6 basis points today 104.38 having closed exactly on the high close level that had preceeded the little run which we just experienced. MBS bonds actually did well to stay at that level in the face of a robust rally in the stock market. Tomorrow brings the first of three days of Treasury auctions during which $99 billion new issues will offered up for sale. We are encouraging our clients to lock as the next few days could be volatile. There were still some folks able to find 3.75% 30 year rates today.

Dow Dives in Despair

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Fri, 18 May 2012 14:48:33 -0700

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down over 800 points since it high on april 30th. Today's major market focus was not in Europe but instead in Southern California. Marc Zuckerberg rang the opening bell on Wall Stree by remote control as he prepared to rake in billions of dollars in today's Faccebook initial public offering (IPO). The offering price was set at $38. making it the largest IPO of all time. The stock which had a high mark of $41,50 closed at $38.23. All the hubbub was unrealized and the Dow skidded to a 73 point loss.

May 18th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Fri, 18 May 2012 14:32:15 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed down 22 basis points today at 104.47 having broken a chain of six consecutive positive trading sessions. In a reverse of yesterday's close, bonds closed near their lows of the day. That is normally an indication of rough sledding but with stocks mired in a sour slump, it is hard to predict the direction with any certainty. The trend line for bonds, however, is still pointing to infinity. The 30 year fixed rate was available at 3.75% and I saw a jumbo up to $1,500,000. at only 4.25%.

Stocks Simply Stagger and Fall

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:46:22 -0700

Stock future were lackluster this morning pointing toward a flat beginning. WalMart earnings came in slightly above the anticipated level and new jobless claims were in line with last weeks at 370,000. the Philadelphia Fed Index of future production came significantly under expectations and stocks began to fall once again. Apple and JP MOrgan led the decline and the S & P 500 fell below important support levels. The Dow wound up losing 156 points. Hopefully tomorrow's Facebook IPO will perk up the market.

May 17th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 17 May 2012 14:38:47 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 31 basis points today at 104.69 having burst through resistance and set a new record high close. That closing level was only two points off its high for the day. The resulting Japanese candlestick is a bold green stick which portends additional improvement. With the Euro continuing to sink, bonds are rallying despite their intensely overbought condition. Although there is no resistance above to contain bonds, one would think they would be susceptible to some profit taking. The 30 year fixed was at 3.75% today.

May 16th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:52:05 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 9 basis points today at 104.38 having set yet another new record despite being grossly overbought. The stochastic meter looks like the temperature gauge on my 1939 Buick in the middle of a traffic jam on a scalding August afternoon; through the roof. The minutes from the recent Fed meeting revealed that some voting members of the Open Market Committee are in favor of some easing activities should the economy continue slowing. Stock traders would lap that up.

Late Day Losses Continue

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Wed, 16 May 2012 13:44:58 -0700

This morning's trading session was greated with mixed messages as housing starts were up and housing permits were down. Looking for any way to move ahead, stocks began the day slightly higher. But throughouot the day stocks waned and the pattern of late days selloffs that we have seen for several sessions continued. Germany's Angela Merkel stated today that she would like to keep Greece in the Eurozone and that temporarily placated traders on that front. The Dow closed down 33 points.

Stocks Fall Yet Again

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Tue, 15 May 2012 15:25:35 -0700

This morning there was hope in the air as stock futures opened higher after days of bad news and mounting losses. Retail sales were slightly weaker that expected. At the same time the Empire Sates Manufacturing Index came in at 17.1 or more than double the level expected. The mixed news caused stocks to open in the black but tey began to fade during the afternoon. By two o'clock stocks had reached the first level of resistance and that was all it took to send them falling again. The Dow closed down 63 Points for yet another loss.

May 15th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Tue, 15 May 2012 15:17:18 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed even today at 104.28 having tied yesterday's all time high closing level. With little news trickling in from Europe after yesterday's debacle, light trading resulted in an extremely tight trading range and thus no movement. The bond did well to remain even as an inflation reading came in hotter than expected. Remember that inflation is the mortal enemy of bonds. So when the CPI core inflation reading came in at 2.3% year over year, that should have forced bonds downward. That reading was over the Fed's stated upper range limit of 2.0%. The 30 year was at 3.75% today.

Greece Triggers "Safe Haven" Trade Once Again

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Mon, 14 May 2012 15:28:05 -0700

Equity markets across the world roiled in disgust at the latest uncertainty and possilby anarchy the pervades the Greek political system today. The "safe haven" trade was in full force today effectively wrenching money from equity investors and depositing it in the hands those holding U. S. fixed rate investments. As I have said in the past, depsite the fact that U.S. bonds, bills and notes have been downgraded, global investors still consider them as the safest places to put their assets in time of crisis.

May 14th Mortgage Market Wrap-up 2

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Mon, 14 May 2012 14:54:18 -0700

Mortgage backed securities (MBS) closed up 25 basis points today at 104.28 having set yet another record for a close. MBS bonds were beneficiaries of more chaos coming from the Aegean sector of Europe. The recent elections there have left the Greek political system without the seeming ability to form a government. The rest of the European Union members are scrambling to prepare a plan for the strong possiblity that Greece's membership tenure may be near its end. The 30 year fixed rate was down to 3.75% today.

Stocks Break Streak and Manage Meager Gain

Connecticut Home Mortgage — Thu, 10 May 2012 15:06:24 -0700

After six consecutive days of losses, stocks closed up today. Although they closed at about 25% of their highs but a mark in the plus column was greeted with a sigh of relief. Weekly jobless claims were 367,000 this week down from last week and under the important 375,000 level which indicates the unemployment rate could be dropping. There was no new negative news from Europe to spoil the party. Tomorrow Consumer Sentiment numbers will be released. With Chase citing potential losses from Mark to Market wirte-offs we could be in for another wild ride. The Dow was up 19 points on the day.