Guy's Blog

September Stats from Ticor Title for Washoe County, Nevada

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Fri, 10 Oct 2008 12:39:28 -0500

Washoe County Notices of Default remained relatively flat for September. Very high still (422 for the month); but stable nonetheless. A ceiling of 400 - 450 per month seems to have been set (as observed for the last eight months).

For the second consecutive month the number of re-fis is less than the number of resales; a phenomenon never before observed in Reno's housing market history until last month. Resales declined slightly (20 less sales) for September as compared to August. The downward trend in unit sales should continue as we enter the slower house buying season.

See all the numbers here.

September Median Home Prices for Reno-Sparks, Nevada

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Tue, 07 Oct 2008 17:42:22 -0500

Median sold price and units sold for September remained relatively stable compared to August's numbers. The median sold price continues to fall, but not as dramatically as we saw last month.

The number of homes listed for sale in September fell 7% compared to August's listings. This is a typical seasonal trend observed as sellers take their homes off the market for the holidays and slower home buying season.

See all the numbers here.

Reno MLS Areas by Percent Decline in Median Home Price

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Thu, 02 Oct 2008 15:21:13 -0500

From my monthly median sold price table we know that Reno-Sparks home prices are now more then 30% off their peak reached in July 2005. But this number is for all Reno and Sparks. What are the declines by MLS area? And did every area peak at the same time? These are questions I was curious about, so I pulled the data and found the following results (click here).

Distressed Properties by MLS Area - Reno and Sparks, Nevada

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:15:23 -0500

There's been much discussion on the blog recently about distressed properties (bank owned, short sales, court sales, etc). Currently, these types of listings account for over 40% of the properties listed on our MLS and 50% of the sales in the last thirty days.

I recently overheard a couple agents commenting about the high number of short sales in Sparks. Curious, I decided to query the MLS and break out distressed properties by MLS area to determine if a large variability between MLS areas exists, and if so, by how much.

See the breakout here.

August Median Sold Prices - Reno, Nevada

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 10 Sep 2008 14:10:26 -0500

Another month, another substantial decrease. This month both the median sales price AND the number of sales dramatically decreased. August's median sales price of $240,000 represents a 2.8% decline from July's $247,000. YoY decrease is 18.6%; Yo2Y decrease is 22.6%; and we are now 30.4% off our peak of $345,000 set in July 2005. See the complete report here.

Somersett Farmer's Market

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:58:46 -0500

This week will be the final week of the Somersett Farmer's Market. If you haven't been before, check out the video below. I've tried to capture the spirit of the event.

Btw, the farmers market takes place at Somersett's Towne Center and is Wednesday afternoon and starts at 4:30PM and wraps up around 8PM. As you'll see from the video there is live music and plenty of activities for the kids.

Somersett Farmers Market - Reno, NV

July's Median Home Prices - Reno, NV

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Mon, 18 Aug 2008 12:47:31 -0500

I've compile July's numbers for Reno-Sparks. The first thing that jumps out is that the median sold price dropped substantially from the previous month's low. At $247,000, not only does July's median sold price represent a 3% ONE MONTH decrease, but also a new low median sales price since I've been tracking these numbers. We are now 28.4% off of Reno's peak median price of $345,000, set three years ago in July 2005. See all the numbers here.

Only Half of Reno Listings Occupied

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Sun, 03 Aug 2008 01:04:54 -0500

Homes sitting unoccupied nationwide set a new record last quarter - with 18.6 million vacant houses according to the US Census Bureau.

Here in Reno we have our fair share of vacant houses. A quick look at today's listings show: Of the 4,586 residential listings in Reno-Sparks, only half are owner-occupied. The rest are either vacant, rented or under construction.

Here is the breakdown:

Reno-Sparks Residential Listings
August 2, 2008
Occupied by?	#	%
Owner-occupied	2,323	50.7%
Vacant	1,919	41.8%
Tenant-occupied	338	7.4%
Under Construction	6	0.1%
--------------	----	-----
total listings	4,586	100.0%

Data courtesy of the Northern Nevada MLS (NNRMLS) - August 2008.

Only 36% Of Our Pending Short Sales Have Closed -- Even After Three Months

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Sun, 27 Jul 2008 02:17:53 -0500

Ninety days have passed since I took a snapshot of the Pendings on our MLS. Readers may recall I followed up with a check of the status of these "pendings" at 30 days and again at 60 days.

So how have the pendings fared after ninety days? As has been the case with the 30- and 60-day observations, those pending listings with a status of "Active-Pending-Loan" continue to exhibit the highest probability of closing - with 88 % having closed within ninety days. On the other end of the spectrum, those pending listings that had a status of "Active-Pending-Short Sale" had the least probability of closing - with only a little over a third (36%) having had closed, even after three months. It should also be noted that after 90 days, 38% of those pending short sales had dropped out of escrow; either by being placed back on the market as Active (19%) or taken off the market completely (19%) - probably destined for foreclosure.

See all the numbers here.

74% of Reno-Sparks Homes Sold for Less Than $350,000

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:33:04 -0500

This week my broker, Chase International, released the 2008 Mid-Year Price Banding Charts. These charts show the number of units sold at various price points, and cover the areas of: Incline Village; East Shore; Truckee; Tahoe City; South Lake Tahoe; Reno/Sparks; and Carson Valley. As an example 40% of the houses that sold in the first half of 2008 in Reno/Sparks sold for less than $250,000. 74% sold for less that $350,000. See each of the charts here.

Reno-Sparks Median "For Sale" and "Sold" Prices - June 2008

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Tue, 15 Jul 2008 17:23:53 -0500

Well...at least June's median sold price drop was not as dramatic as May's, but we're still looking at a new low... $254,000. On the plus side, units sold for June was way up. With 387 residential properties sold in June, that's an increase of nearly 13% over May's number of Solds. In fact, it's even higher than June 2007's 378 units sold.

See all the numbers here.

May Median Sold Prices - Reno, Nevada

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Thu, 05 Jun 2008 12:48:12 -0500

Wow! The median sold price took a huge drop for the month of May - 5.2% lower than April's median. Granted, all sales for May might not be entered into the MLS yet, but even so I don't see the median fluctuating that much. Note also that the median For Sale price has remained unchanged since February of this year, while the Sold median price has dropped more than 6% during the same period. Inventory also increased to... see all the data here

Price per Square Foot - The New Metric?

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Thu, 15 May 2008 16:41:32 -0500

Many recent comments on my local Reno Realty blog have been made regarding how the reported median home prices don't tell the whole story when it comes to home values in Reno. For this reason many of our readers have expressed a desire to see $/sq.ft. sold price data - the idea being that the $/sq.ft. data might be a truer indicator of where home values are today compared to historical highs. With this in mind I set out to uncover this information... click here to see results.

Washoe County (Reno, NV) Recorded Sales and NODs for April 2008

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Thu, 15 May 2008 16:35:32 -0500

Washoe County re-sales increased for the third consecutive month (up 20% over March); however April new homes sales decreased in April over March (down 11%). Summing re-sales and new home sales results in a nearly 9% increase in Washoe County recorded home sale recordings for April over March. 605 recordings vs. 556 recordings.

Unfortunately this sales activity is negated by the increasing foreclosure activity. As has been the case for the last twelve months Notices of Default (NODs) continue to skyrocket. April saw another 457 NODs recorded in Washoe County. This number is truly staggering. 457 NODs is more than 15 a day (or more than 20 per day, excluding weekends). And this trend does not look to subside anytime soon. We're already at 58% of 2007's total (and it's only April). At this rate 2008's NODs will outnumber 2007's by July.

See all the numbers here.

April Median Sold Prices - Reno, Nevada

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Mon, 05 May 2008 21:57:37 -0500

A 31% increase in the month-over-month number of homes sold in April stands out as the big news this month. I, as well as many agents in my office, can attest to the increase in client activity lately. These numbers seem to support our perception.
The median sold price also increased for April, with a noteworthy gain 3.5% over March. This market has not seen a month-over-month increase of that magnitude for quite some time. See the complete report here.

Do Special Conditions of Sale Affect Salabilty?

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Mon, 28 Apr 2008 20:15:56 -0500

While writing my last post it occurred to me that also tracking closings per type of “special condition of sale” would be an interesting exercise.

As of today our MLS is showing 4,305 listings [Reno-Sparks residential]. Breaking out these by the new “Special Condition of Sale” field yields:

"Special Conditions of Sale"
Reno-Sparks Residential Listings
April 24, 2008
"Special Condition of Sale"	#	%
Bank Owned	409	9.5
Relocation	20	0.5
Short Sale	503	11.7
Subject to Court Approval	24	0.6
Other	273	6.3
None	2,869	66.6
Not yet specified	207	4.8
total	4,305	100.0

Just as I plan to do with the Pendings tracked in my last post, I will monitor these listings for 30, 60 and 90 days and report on how many have closed. My goal is to get a handle on the types of sales that have a higher propensity of closing.

Pendings Schmendings

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Fri, 25 Apr 2008 01:45:40 -0500

Having just experienced yet another “pending” short sale fall out of escrow, I am wondering if these “transactions in limbo” can really be considered as Pending. With no meaningful time lines given by the lenders who are supposed either approve or not approve a pending offer on a "short sale"; days, weeks and even months pass before the prospective buyers finally give up out of frustration and move on to another property.

Almost every agent (and their clients) who has dealt with a short sale transaction has experienced the same frustrations. Even the approval time frames set by the lenders themselves become a moving target. With extension after extension after extension demanded by the banks during the course of the "approval" process, it is no wonder Buyers lose patience and look elsewhere for a property.

In an attempt to determine just how bad this faux Pending status is I’m going to track all the current Pendings (as of today) and see where they are 30 days from now. [There used to be a time, not too long ago, when a 30-day close was the norm. Not so, today.]

As of this afternoon our MLS shows 787 properties [residential properties in Reno Sparks] in various states of “Pending” status. These breakdown as follows:

"Pendings" - Reno-Sparks Residential
April 24, 2008
"Pending" Status	#	%
Active/Pending-Call	97	12.5
Active/Pending-Loan	307	39.5
Active/Pending-House	17	2.2
Active/Pending-Short Sale	199	25.6
Pending - No Show	158	20.0
total	787	99.8

I have recorded the MLS numbers for all 787 properties. I will revisit these properties in 30, 60 and 90 days to see what is outcome. Would anyone care to predict how many actually close? Hint: It’s to the point now that when a property that one of my clients had their eye on goes pending, I tell them not to worry because odds are it’ll be back on the market in a few weeks.

Reno-Sparks Median "For Sale" and "Sold" Prices - March 2008

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:23:56 -0500

Units sold are up for the second consecutive month in Reno Sparks; with March sales showing a 8.2% increase over February units sold.

Unfortunately the number of houses for sale increased 2.8% during the same period. To put real numbers to the percentages: March saw an additional 111 homes added to the market with only an additional 18 homes sold. High inventory remains the core issue in the market.

Median asking price increased while median sold price declined to a new low of $262,000.

See all the data here.

Washoe County (Reno, NV) Recorded Sales and NODs for March

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 14:15:00 -0500

Both the number of new homes sales and the number of re-sales in Washoe County increased for the month of March according the most recent data distributed by our friends at Ticor Title. March re-sales were up 15% over February's units sold. And new home sales were up a whopping 48% over February's new home sales. See allthe data here.

Reno's Average Commute Time: 15 Minutes 36 Seconds

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 13:46:16 -0500

Today is National Start! Walking Day…at least according to the American Heart Association. I saw the article in this morning’s RGJ Neighborhood & Voices section. While I believe in the benefits of walking (or most exercise, for that matter), what I found most interesting were the stats quoted for Reno’s commute times.

• Reno's median commute time: 15.6 minutes
• Percent of the Reno population with a commute that is 45 minutes or longer: 5.8 percent
• Percent of the Reno population that walks or bikes to work: 6 percent.

Coming from Chicago, I find these commute times extraordinarily short.

The RGJ article quoted the source of these stats as CNNMoney.com’s “Best Places To Live”, so checked out the site.

You’ll find plenty of info here on the best US cities in which to live, but here’s a direct link to Reno’s page. On this page you’ll also get to see how Reno stacks up against the averages for the cities that comprise the “Best Places to Live” on a variety of metrics. For example, Reno has only 160 bars within a 15 mile radius. The average number of bars within 15 miles for the Best Places to Live is 287!

Reno-Sparks Median "For Sale" and "Sold" Prices - February 2008

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Tue, 04 Mar 2008 17:59:02 -0600

The number of houses for sale in February dropped 3.5% from January's numbers - continuing a downward trend that began last fall (September 2007). Similarly the median asking price continues to decline (1.5% from last month) as well.

Unfortunately the number of houses sold last month are also way down. With only 125 sales reported at the moment, February's units sold are off almost 34% from January's numbers. Consequently inventory continues to climb, despite the lower number of homes for sale.

See all the numbers here.

Reno Vacancy Rates by MLS Area

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Fri, 08 Feb 2008 00:05:02 -0600

Just as we saw with last quarter's numbers vacancy rates again increased across the board. However, a reshuffling of the ranking has occurred. Somersett has once again regained the top spot as having the highest proportion of vacant listings. And with 63% vacant and 8% tenant-occupied, only a 29% of Somersett's current listings are owner-occupied. 29% owner-occupied represents the lowest level seen since I began tracking the data. (see all the numbers here)

January's Median Home Prices - Reno, NV

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 06 Feb 2008 22:51:15 -0600

Good News: The number of houses for sale continues to decline. Down 1.3% from last month. Also, the median For Sale price continues to decline Down 0.57% from last month. While the median Sold price increased almost 4% over last month.

Bad News: Only 171 houses were sold during the month of January. This is a sharp decrease from the prior month (a 30% drop from December's 244 Solds). As Solds continue to decrease; months supply of inventory will continue to climb. (See all the numbers here.)

Reno Agents Working Below Poverty Levels

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 11:12:44 -0600

The NAR reports that the average REALTOR^®'s income amounts to only $23,000 per year. How do Reno-Sparks REALTORS^®' incomes compare? Let's do the numbers (I'll use October's data because that's the month where I have the most complete data available).

According to recent Washoe County Assessor's data , October's sales consisted of 386 resales county-wide. That's 772 transaction sides (one Buyer's agent and one Listing agent). There were also 235 new home sales recorded for the same period. However, we can't assume that all of these new home sales involved an agent. In fact, I'm guessing one-half would be a generous estimate. So, for this example, let's add another 118 buy-side transactions. That's gives us 890 transaction sides for the month of October. As we saw in yesterday's post, the NRED reported 3,176 Active agents for October. That's .28 transaction sides per agent for October. For this example, let's simply multiply that number by twelve to get an annual estimate. That yields 3.36 transaction sides per Washoe County agent for 2007. For the sake of discussion, let's use a 3 percent commission for each of those transaction sides. Last week I posted the median sales price for October was $287,000. That amounts to an $8,610 commission per sale per side, or an annual gross income to the broker of $28,953. I say "to the broker" because, as you know, the broker receives the commission, and then divides it with the agent according to a pre-arranged "split". This split can vary greatly depending on the brokerage and a variety of factors (i.e. experience of the agent, the agent's production volume, office expenses, etc.) Let's just say I have heard splits ranging from 50-50 to 90-10, and everything in-between. Again, for the purpose of this example, let's choose a commission split in the middle of the range, say 70%. That provides an annual gross income of $20,267 per Washoe County agent...or slightly below the U.S. Census Bureau's poverty threshold for 2006 ($20,614 for a four-person household).

Swelling Ranks?

Guy Johnson, MBA, EcoBroker (Chase International) — Wed, 19 Dec 2007 11:02:49 -0600

Lately I've observed a lot of shuffling of personnel in the real estate industry and its related fields (lenders, mortgage brokers, title and escrow officers, new homes sales reps, etc.) Many offices are downsizing and cutting staff, while others are shutting their doors completely. Where do these out-of-work agents, mortgage brokers, and escrow officers go? read