The economy is bad enough and there's just about no one here in Vegas that doesn't seem to be underwater with their home mortgage. Which means only one thing: it provides the perfect opportunity for scammers, and home loan modification seems to be the scam of choice these days.

Just the other day there was a local story here of a Las Vegas mortgage broker charged with theft regarding a home loan modification gone awry. Here's the typical sales-pitch:

"Do you owe more on your mortgage than your home is currently worth?" or "Are you on the verge or in foreclosure?

Talk about a ripe market! But here's the real question: Does home loan modification really even work?... or is it just a short-term answer to a long-term problem? Quite frankly, I don't know the answer to that one. Most will tell you to check the Better Busines Bureau before moving ahead with a company offering loan modification, but even that doesn't insure you that you're dealing with legit people. After all, is there an organization out there that has "jumped the shark" more than the BBB?

Maybe the solution is to contact a reputable short sales specialist instead. Or, what I would do is try to find someone out there that's actually done a successful loan modification to their benefit and find out from them what company they used. Can't find one? Well, maybe that tells you something too...

As of today, I now have access to the legendary "$100 million REO foreclosure portfolios, both residential and commercial properties typically made available to only the elite hedge funds and institutional investors that have "inside connections" of some kind.

As a result, I am looking for investors seeking access to a portfolio of REO investment properties in this $100 million price range with highrly customized specifications on the exact location and property type desired.

You (the investor) name your price range, the property condition, the specific area codes, any property specifications, and we'll provide you with a resource to cherry-pick these properties at REALISTIC mega-discounts off the current broker price opinion for the bulk purchase. Through my "priority access" association with this group, I can provide to the investor prices and terms that are not available to the general public via the relationship with www.CommercialREOS.com

Prospective REO investors and investor groups will be required to sign a "Letter of Intent" indicating your price point, location, condition, etc., and the type of product you want to buy and how much of it to take down PER MONTH which basically acts a starting point to initiate the process. Along with the LOI, a current "hard proof of funds" statement from your bank is also required. Due to the nature of the business, both these documents are required before moving forward.

We also have REO opportunities for the smaller investor or investor group in the $10 million range, albeit with a lesser discount. This is a real deal opportunity for the REALISTIC investor group that's looking to capitalize on some amazing discounts in today's national foreclosure market.

What is "realistic"? We are currently working with investors in California who are buying a typical $100 million portfolio at .58 cents on the dollar and also with smaller groups selling them $10 million REO portfolios at .68 cents on the dollar. That's the marketplace folks, and anyone who thinks they can do better will just have to keep looking, because it's just not out there - except in urban legend land.

If you're a serious sophisticated investor or a member of an investment group looking to take down a $100 million custom REO portfolio and the above discounted values are attractive to you, please contact me at 702-336-5554 or email ron@commercialREOs.com for more details.

If you're active on Active Rain, most likely you understand the value of blogging. In addition to my Active Rain blogging, I've been working very closely with the folks over at the Free Blog Factory in creating fully customized wordpress blogs and wanted to showcase another blog we just published at http://www.ShortSaleHomesLasVegas.com on behalf of Las Vegas short sale specialist Joe Samples of REMAX Benchmark Realty.

I was hoping you can take a look at the site and send me your feedback on what you think of the wordpress blog.

There are many blogging platforms out there, but in my experience, I really like the Wordpress interface because it's so easy to integrate targeted posts and pages with social media platforms. Add video, widgets, plug-ins, or just about any imaginable way to make your content more readable. Plus the search engines seem to like wordpress blogs alot too.

The admin section of ShortSaleHomesLasVegas.com allows the ability to change the look and feel of the site, the page names, the way the content is displayed, the graphics attached to the post, the posts themselves all from a single click of the mouse. The interface is incredibly intuitive and even a real estate agent with absolutely no knowledge of technology can position his/her site as the industry expert - and look that way too!

This site has customized pages targeting short sale buyers and short sale sellers by showcasing a variety of short sale properties on the Las Vegas MLS, plus links to related short sale articles and even original short sale content written by Mr. Samples himself. The backoffice makes for easy graphic uploads, so you can attach a picture (or pictures) to whatever post you want to make very easily. In addition, the navigation bar on the right has links to social media sites, a quick property search based on category criteria, and a tag cloud indicating what the most popular search terms on the website are.

There's no doubt blogging on Active Rain is huge for search engine results! But adding an outside blog can only help your internet exposure. Joe's blog benefits short sale buyers and short sale sellers. Why don't you set up one for yourself as well by getting started here. Oh, and by the way, did I mention it was free?

McIntosh Commercial Bank has lost so much money on loans that, by one measure, it was financially the weakest of Georgia's roughly 300 banks. So rather than look within for insights as to why the bank has failed miserably, representatives are actually complaining that federal regulators were being overzealous in closing banks.

Here's probably a more realistic explanation: they loaned too much money to developers, builders, and buyers and when the market tanked, so did they - just like countless others.

Greed causes the downfall of many. And it seems blame is very commonplace when things go wrong.

Do newspapers, TV, and the media in general report what's REALLY going on in the news, specifically commercial real estate? It's hard to believe what you read some times when the authors of these newsworthy pieces are clearly misssing out on key signals and indicators that portend exactly the opposite of what they're saying.

Take today's story in the Las Vegas Review Journal, "Commercial real estate prices reaching one third 2007 levels". Here's a few talking points from the article:

• "I think we're pretty close to the bottom because once a bank gets a property back, you can't go any lower than that"
• "The most common trend in the industrial market continues to be the lasting expectation among buyers and tenants for reduced sales prices and lease rates"
• "Both residential and commercial transactions are slowly starting to pick up compared with the last couple of years"
• "The ones that take the jump now are poised to make the most profit when things turn around."
• "There continues to be strong demand for quality properties."
• "We're getting a lot of activity, which is going in the right direction"

Remember these comments were taken directly from a major media outlet, not from an agent's website or someone's real estate blog. Let's analyze each point a bit further:

"I think we're pretty close to the bottom because once a bank gets a property back, you can't go any lower than that" - Oh we can, and we will. If you think the commercial market is bad now, wait until the end of the year when the banks move from their current "denial" state into "acceptance" of the problem and start taking massive action to unload properties.

"The most common trend in the industrial market continues to be the lasting expectation among buyers and tenants for reduced sales prices and lease rates" - The most common trend is ALL of real estate is that the prices will continue to fall until job growth prospects get better. The focus should be on job creation - until that happens, the real estate market will continue to fall. And I don't see it happening (for real at least, although you can probably find examples of news articles massaging the facts to make it seem so in the short term.

"Both residential and commercial transactions are slowly starting to pick up compared with the last couple of years" - the key words here are "the last couple of years", which were lousy. Comparing something negative to something even more negative makes your negatively seem less negative.

"The ones that take the jump now are poised to make the most profit when things turn around." - this statement is the single-most exact reason people hate real estate agents. And for obvioius reasons. When Starbucks tells you their coffee is great, watch out.

"There continues to be strong demand for quality properties." - Strong demand? I don't see it. Maybe in other markets, but since this article was written for a Las Vegas paper, I'm assuming they're referencing the Las Vegas market, where the exact opposite seems to be the case. Just look around you if you're a local.

We're getting a lot of activity, which is going in the right direction" - Trust me, the only activity people are seeing are investors looking for an unrealistic "steal", then looking to steal the steal. There's certainly a lot of activity there.

Here's the tough love folks: if you're looking to invest in commercial real estate, take my advice and WAIT. WAIT WAIT WAIT. It's going to get worse short-term. There will be great opportunities for profits in the future and we're currently paving the ground with that at www.CommercialREOs.com, but only when the time is right. It's not now. Turn off the TV and stop reading the newspapers with all those stories written by those with agendas.

You know why people hate real estate agents? Because there's a perceived notion out there that real estate agents are all after the commission without regard to whether or not the purchase (or sale) is right for the CLIENT.

I want to share with you an email I just received that drives home exactly that. (I took out any references to the sender, or the company name that sent out this doozy):

There has never been a better time for business owners to purchase the commercial property their businesses occupy. It's a fact, and I'll tell you why. 

The 20-year fixed interest rate on commercial loans projects continues to be historically low -- the effective rate for May is 5.52%. And that's fixed for 20 years! On top of that, the continued elimination of most up-front fees makes a commercial loan an unbeatable alternative to conventional financing . . . and a no-brainer for any business owner who recognizes the wealth-creating power of commercial property ownership. 

The Experts in commercial property financing (that's us) make the purchasing process easy and simple because it's ALL we do. If you're the least bit interested in owning your commercial property, call me today

Is this guy doing ANY market research? Probably not - he just wants a deal. The fact is all RELIABLE DATA and market forecasting point to exactly the opposite - there's a perfect storm brewing in commercial real estate and if you think the residential foreclosure market got hit hard, just you wait.

"a no-brainer for any business owner who recognizes the wealth-creating power of commercial property ownership"?!?!?  This must be a joke, right? It used to be "don't wait to buy real estate, buy real estate and wait". Not anymore. You'll be turning cartwheels of joy if you just wait around and get ready to pounce when the timing's right - but that time's certainly not now.

Lately, I've heard rumblings that we're actually entering into an economic "recovery". With high unemployment and massive household debt, that's hard to believe. Remember, many people have financed their expensive lifestyles and the bills are coming due. Financial services, home-building, auto workers, even lawyers, brokers and other traditionally well-compensated fields are feeling the brunt.

Here's the mission statement for why we're in for a rough stretch of commercial real estate: everyone borrowed too much!

Not painting a pretty picture as well is the long-term impact of colossal government spending and national debt which has yet to be felt. Jobs just cannot be created fast enough to fill the gaping holes in commercial real estate debt-service. In fact, you can make a case for the first time in quite a long time, American's standard of living may have begun to fall - low wages, shrinking insurance benefits, bankrupt pension plans, and how about that 401K for retirement?

Where will the new high-paying employment options to stir recovery be? Here's a few:

• Technology: engineers and scientists still will be highly desired as new high-tech products can increase sales to global markets.
  
  
• Healthcare: as the population ages, we'll continue to see demand for medical services, doctors, nurses, therapists, caregivers, etc.
  
  
• Education: if there's one area that's in desperate need of qualified individuals it's the teaching industry, especially for education targeting engineers, scientists, and doctors for jobs leading to innovations in their particular field of study.
  
  
• Housing: as long as the U.S. population continues to grow (which it will), homebuilders will eventually recover as all these people still need places to live.
  
  
• Wealth Management: We'll eventually have to pay the bills for all the borrowing that's been done.
  

The problem is that there aren't many good paying jobs around right now and the only way out of a doomed commercial real estate market is job creation. Even those with the most rosy-colored glasses point to an overall gloom and predict a prolonged slow recovery process. I don't think we're there just yet.

Commercial foreclosures are looming in the future. Here's more bad news for commercial real estate owners: there's no demand for your product. Looking to increase cash flow to meet expensive debt service? Not a good bet. As tenants continue to downsize to cut costs, landlords are facing serious challenges as their stifling mortgage statements stare them in the face month after month. In today's marketplace, commercial real estate is seeing the following trends:

• Retailers are closing their weaker stores, and concentrating mainly on only the strongest of large shopping centers
• Apartment renters are doubling up or moving back in with their parents or siblings
• Office tenants want big accommodations in rents and concessions.
• Warehouses are suffering record vacancies.
• Hotels are seeing "below break-even" occupancies, as families are eliminating travel more and more as a means to curtail their spending.

It's not new construction that we'll need in the commercial real estate world. New demand must be the keyword for the commercial real estate world to weather the upcoming storms of commercial foreclosures and commercial reos. Remember that employment growth always follows the growth of the economy, and unfortunately, real estate is typically the last to see any improvement.

Well, unfortunately, according to the Emerging Trends, there really is no market to watch at this point. They are not bullish on any particular place. But they do say that investors tend to favor the following:

• Global gateway markets on the East and West coasts—featuring international airports, ports, and major commercial centers.
• Cities and urbanizing infill suburbs with 24-hour attributes—upscale, pedestrian-friendly neighborhoods; convenient office, retail, entertainment, and recreation districts; mass transit alternatives to driving; good schools (public and/or private); and relatively safe streets.
• Brainpower centers—places that offer a dynamic combination of colleges and universities, high-paying industries—high tech, biotech, finance, and health care (medical centers, drug companies)—and government offices.
• Barrier-to-entry markets where geographic constraints—rivers, lakes, oceans, and mountains—limit development and help control overbuilding.

And what do investors tend to shy away from these days? Try these attributes:

• Midwest manufacturing centers—automaker travail deflates interest to new lows;
• Secondary and tertiary cities—anywhere you can’t fly direct to from the global pathway centers;
• Hot-growth bubble-burst markets, which collapsed under plunging housing prices;
• Fringe areas—the exurbs and places with long car commutes or where getting a quart of milk means taking a 15- minute drive.

So where does Las Vegas rate in all of this? Like the military, don't ask - don't tell... But if you'd like to register at www.CommercialREOs.com for some nice timing plays when the time is right, please be our guest and do so.

Nobody likes to read government documents and reports. It's probably because they're all long, boring, drawn-out with pages and pages of fluff information that no one cares about. However, in the case of the 2010 Congressional Oversight Panel Report, I started reading the document, and I must say, the information contained is just plain shocking!

You thought it was bad now, their take on the commercial real estate marketing is downright frightening (and if history is any indication, usually correct!). Download the report (it's 190 pages!), but just read the Executive Summary. And make sure you're sitting down. Here's my favorite paragraph:

Between 2010 and 2014, about $1.4 trillion in commercial real estate loans will reach the end of their terms. Nearly half are at present “underwater” – that is, the borrower owes more than the underlying property is currently worth. Commercial property values have fallen more than 40 percent since the beginning of 2007. Increased vacancy rates, which now range from eight percent for multifamily housing to 18 percent for office buildings, and falling rents, which have declined 40 percent for office space and 33 percent for retail space, have exerted a powerful downward pressure on the value of commercial properties.

The largest commercial real estate loan losses are projected for 2011 and beyond; losses at banks alone could range as high as $200-$300 billion. The stress tests conducted last year for 19 major financial institutions examined their capital reserves only through the end of 2010. Even more significantly, small and mid-sized banks were never subjected to any exercise comparable to the stress tests, despite the fact that small and mid-sized banks are proportionately even more exposed than their larger counterparts to commercial real estate loan losses.

Put on your seat belt and get ready for an interesting 5 years regarding commercial foreclosures and commercial REOs. If you're direct to a lender or direct to an investment group, contact us at www.CommercialREOs.com and at least register on the site so when the time's right, perhaps we can make lemonade out of lemons.