I'm not telling you anything new that you haven't heard already when I say; "When the market is on the rise, you'll realize that the market has passed the bottom".  Isn't that the truth.  All of the buyers that I'm working with are eagerly anticipating the bottom of the market.  As you have been told over and over, nobody can predict it.  In fact many are predicting the bottom is still far away. 

If you are someone that pays attention to the statistics on a weekly basis, you may identify tell tale trends that indicate a changing market. I have been tracking the number of active listings and pending sales weekly for South Lake Tahoe for the past two years.  What I have been seeing is a consistent trend that shows declining inventories and increasing sales.  If the market continues the trend this year, it could lead to a stabilization of the market.  You could conclude that stabilization usually proceeds a market upswing. If this is true, does this mean the bottom is here?

I'm not going to be so bold as to say that the bottom has arrived but I will say "I told you so" after the fact.  Kidding aside, what I can do is show you the statistics that have been tracking and you can draw your own conclusions.  I have started to chronicle the market activity on my web site only recently.  So have a look and click here! 

The stats that you'll be viewing is data that has been taken from a very reliable and accurate source which is the local Multiple Listing Service of the South Tahoe Association Of Realtors. 

Forclosures continue to rise, developers stop building, banks tighten money, oil prices threatening to exceed $100 per barrel, home values continue to drop and now Recession is becoming the top of the news.  If things weren't bad enough, it could still get worse.  Welcome to the new year, 2008.

In times like these most real estate agents would burry their heads in the sand.  Many agents have already picked up part time jobs or changed careers completely.  The question that remains is what are you going to do?  This is a question that I have already asked myself in 2005 when the market started turning.  The fact that I'm still in the business may tell you the decision that I had made. 

What I realized is that opportunity is knocking!  If I can find a way to thrive in this market, then by the time the market turns around, I will be in even better position.    What most people forget is that there is always opportunity.  How do you think rich people become successful?  It's not because they caught the wave in a nick of time.  Rather, they created the wave.  The difference between being successful or a failure could be explained like this.  Are you content to ride the coat tails of others or are you going to tailor your own coat tails?  I'm making mine and so can you!  Make 2008 your best year ever!

In today's real estate market, there are incredible opportunities for buyers.  In some areas of South Lake Tahoe we are seeing values that we haven't seen in years.  Prices are more affordable and reminiscent of 2004.  For example, I just sold a 2000SF home on an acre of land for only $400,000.  At the peak of the market boom, buyers wouldn't have never thought of offering anything less than $570,000.  It was originally priced at $565,500 and over a period of 4 months the price was gradually reduced to $429,900.  At that price, it finally awakened the buyers and multiple offers were submitted.  The buyers' cautious and conservative bidding yielded a big gain for one of them.

Where are the buyers?  The conditions are ripe for buying with low interest rates, a large selection, and lower prices.  Yet the market still seems sluggish.  It seems that buyers have lost their appetite.  Even though the table is served with piles of delicious food, the seats are nearly empty.  For the few that are seated at the table, the feast begins.

Maybe we need to put it in perspective.  After all, the boom years had brought an abnormal volume of activity which surpassed unprecedented levels.  It lasted so long that it had seemed normal.  There are a variety of conditions that may explain the slow down.  Failing subprime lenders has created tighter lending practices which has reduced the number of qualified buyers.  Foreclosures continue to increase and add to the oversupply.  Consumer confidence is down due to an ailing housing market.  Both buyers and lenders are concerned that a continued decline in value could result in the evaporation of most or all of a down payment.  Fear is the markets worse enemy and it is preventing a healthy balance.

The truth needs to be told.  The market is cyclical and it will rise again.  If you look at it over time the average price continues to rise.   The buyers looking for short term gains are being short sighted.  Real estate has always been a long term investment and always will be.  With an abundance of homes to choose from, now is the time to find the right home.  Of course there are those looking for the perfect trifecta which includes the perfect home, for the perfect price with the perfect interest rate.   This usually results in the perfect loser.  It isn't easy..... being perfect!

The overall market in South Lake Tahoe is relatively stable.  It was surprising to find that our inventories did not exceed last year's peak.  This could be attributed to healthy activity within both the high and low end of the market. This was clearly evident this past year when a three of my clients tried making offers on well priced properties.  In both cases we found ourselves bidding against multiple offers.  The other buyers were not bashful to overbid.  Consequently, my clients were not as exuberant and we did succumb to the competition. 

The price range between $500,000 and a million is a much different market.  It is very sluggish with few sales and a huge selection.  The buyers are scarce.  This might have something to do with the interest rates.  This price band usually means that a buyer must apply for a jumbo loan.  The 80-10-10's are no longer available and no document loans are gone as well.  Buyers are now faced with more conventional type financing and this has reduced the buyers appetite. 

All of this has left more sellers in anxiety.  New construction can be had a bargain prices.  Builders have to make a choice between no profit or a loss.  There are approximately 40 new construction homes on the market and winter will only exasperate the problem.  While most buyers are choosing the affordable, a few are discovering the incredible deals.  If you are looking for the best buys in Tahoe, pay more and realize greater values!