I've done some digging in the Naples Real Estate Market to try to find out what is really going on with Short Sales & REO's as it relates to the following questions.

• Is there another wave coming through & if so when and how small or big will it be?
• How many seller's are still in trouble or behind on their mortgage payment?

Here's what I found at the end of all the digging. First to clarify the process, an LP (Lis Pendens) is filled once your 3 mortgage payments behind then later an FJ (Final Judgment) which states when the bank is going to sell at public auction or become an REO which then a CT (Certificate of Title) will be issued. Now based on that info here's the numbers behind the questions I have.

Here's the number of Certificate of Titles issued in each year.

• 2006 had 87 CT
• 2007 had 677 CT
• 2008 had 2,388 CT
• 2009 has 2,613 CT not including this month

Now here's the Lis Pendens that have been filed in each year.

• 2006 had 1,246 LP
• 2007 had 4,078 LP
• 2008 had 8,793 LP
• 2009 has 8,540 LP not including this month

Here's what it all means, the pre-foreclosure process on average takes 18 months to foreclose and some up to 24 months so that means 2006 and 2007 LP's most likely became REO's in 2008 & 2009 based on the CT numbers. So that first wave that came through for the most part was only 2006 & 2007 LP's. So in 2010 we'll see most of 2008 LP's become REO's and 2011 will be 2009 LP's.

So get prepared now because there's another wave coming, either get on or get out of the way the next years are going to be whatever you make it. Goodluck & stay positive, hmmm... now where did i leave my surfboard at...

We are finally under 10,000 active listings in Naples current total as of May 8th 2009 is 9,784 listings. What you might find interesting is how those listings break down.

• 81.5% of all listings are Regular Deals (though we know probably half of those listings are over priced)
• 16% of all listings are Potential Short Sales
• 2.5% are REO’s Bank Owned Properties (I thought that number would be higher)

I’m sure all of you have felt the market has changed for the better since March 2009 a lot of multiple offers going on out there making it harder to secure the deal. Here’s some stats that show just exactly what’s been going on since the beginning of 2009.

• January had 4,131 new listings and 541 sold that’s 13%
• February had 3,266 new listings and 625 sold that’s 19%
• March had 3,705 new listings and 904 sold that’s 24%
• April had 2,920 new listings and 970 sold that’s 33%

FYI- so far these first 8 days in May has shown no slow down currently 972 new listings and 299 sold that’s 31%

2nd FYI- To put the under 10,000 listings in perspective Naples was as high as 15,000 listings just over 18 months ago.

P.S. Keep doing what you have to do to get that next sale and Happy Mother’s Day to all MOMS!!!

Here's 2 bar graphs of Pending Sales in the last 12 months as well as Pending Sales per quarter over the last 4 years.  As you can see over the past 3 months there has been an increase of 36%  26%  &  37% respectively over the previous month in Pending Sales.

•·         If you compare 1^st qtr 2009 to 1^st qtr 2008 we are up 59%

•·         Compared to 1^st qtr 2007 we're up 64%

•·         This quarters 3,600 Pending Sales are in between the Pending Sales of 2^nd & 3^rd qtr of 2005 when homes were selling like hotcakes.

Share this info and buyer's it's time to get off the fence or miss out on your oppurtunity to own property in beautiful SWFLA...  Also based on last year's trend this 2^nd quarter 2009 will increase more than this 1^st quarter, possibly hitting over 4,000 pending sales so get out there and make sure you grab a piece of paradise.

FORECLOSURES

There could be new meaning to "home for the holidays." Gov. Crist said Monday he's considering a temporary freeze on housing foreclosures in Florida to provide some holiday relief from housing and financial turmoil.

Read the full story:

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n1-112508.cfm

DEVELOPERS

Saying they've been labeled "toxic" by lenders, Florida's home builders are upset over the way lending institutions are using the $700 billion bailout fund that Congress and President Bush approved in October. They say the money isn't being passed along to the slumping construction industry.

Read the full story:

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n4-112508.cfm

REAL ESTATE ECONOMY

"October was the height of the economic crisis, and the shock factor for consumers has not yet been fully reflected in home sales," NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said on Friday at NAR's convention in Orlando. But Yun notes that some of the hardest-hit areas of the country, including Florida, show "consistent, solid gains" in pending home sales.

Read the full story:

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n2-111008.cfm

BUYERS & SELLERS

NAR released its latest consumer survey of home buyers and sellers. A key finding: First-time buyers have risen in market share, and they plan to own their homes longer than buyers in the past.

Read the full story:

http://www.floridarealtors.org/NewsAndEvents/n4-111008.cfm

Below are my answers to questions from Laura Layden reporter for The Naples Daily News that she asked me about the Golden Gate Estates real estate market. Article will appear in the paper at a later date which i'll pass on to you when i know it's available.

•1.       Foreclosure judgments i feel are affecting sales positively because thus far in the last 12 months there has been a total of 1,993 single family homes sold in Naples, 349 of them have been in Golden Gate Estates that's 17.5% of all sales in Naples.  Of the 349 homes sold in the Estates 48% of them are in the $100,000 to $199,999 range.

•2.       Primarily most sales have been Bank Owned Foreclosures/Real Estate Owned (REO's)  or regular deals where the seller has owned the home for a five or more years and is in good position to sell because they didn't take out equity in their home during that time.  Some Short Sales have been selling but not as much as Bank Owned Foreclosures because the time frame to close Short Sales is much longer.  I have notice though in the last couple months banks are working quicker on Short Sales and are starting to close them.  In fact I'm part of a Short Sale Team at VIP Realty Group, INC. in which we're positioning ourselves to close more and more of these potential Short Sales.

•3.   For the 3^rd quarter of 2008 the median price in the Estates is at $160,000. In the 3^rd quarter of 2007 it was $333,500 and $370,000 in 2006. Median price means half of the homes sold for more than that price and the other half sold for less than that price. 

•4.       The reason there's so many foreclosures in the Estates is because during the boom years that was the last area of affordable Single Family Homes in Naples, matter of fact I was getting buyers that were squeezed out of Miami and into Golden Gate Estate homes. Those that couldn't get a home in the Estates decided to relocate to Cape Coral & Lehigh Acres where currently there's high foreclosure rates as well.

•5.       The Estates currently have 1,068 homes for sale and new listings have been up and down all year long but in the last 3 months have been trending down.  Compared to July 2008 new listings are down 23% and compared to October 2007 listings are down 12%.  All great signs for the Estates and here's why if you compare September 2008 to the same time a year ago Pending Sales are up 500% from 14 pending to 84 pending, Closed sales are up 185% from 14 sales to 43 closed sales and the Median Price has dropped 42% from $275,000 to $160,000.

Again all great signs showing now's the time to buy...

Fellow Realtors,

I had some additional questions so I dug further and this is what I found... 

Question 1- What is the breakdown of the type of homes sold during the last 12 months?

·         45% were Single Family Homes

·         43% were Condos (low, mid & high rise)

·         10.5% were Attached & Detached Villas

·         1.5% were Manufactured

Question 2- What's the breakdown of the type of homes sold within the range of $150K to $399K?

·         42% were Single Family Homes

·         45% were Condos (low, mid & high rise)

·         13% were Attached & Detached Villas

Question 3- How do these closed sales in the last 12 months compare to sales 24 months & 36 months ago?

·         Compared to 24 months ago we are UP 10% (4,384 closed sales to 3,981 closed sales)

·         Compared to 36 months ago we are down 14% (4,384 closed sales from 5,096 closed sales)

·         Average the 2 cycles, the downturn 24 months ago and the boom 36 months ago and you get 4,538 avg. closed sales compared to the last 12 months we're only down 3.4%

·         This shows us the sales are there we of course have to work twice as hard for them to get the same amount of income because the median price has dropped about 40% but hey at least the sales transactions are there you just got to go in there and get some.

Hello fellow Realtors, I was doing some real estate homework and thought I'd pass on this info to the rest of you.  You can use it to narrow down price range to market to or even price range of which homes to do an Open House in.

•·         In Naples last 12 months 4,384 homes sold 10,268 homes currently active

•·         68% of sold homes are in the $100K to $499K

•·         Narrowed down further 50% of sold homes are in the $150K to $399K

•·         The top 2 selling price ranges are $200K to $249K and $300K to $399K accounting for 27% of all sold homes

Out of the 4,384 homes sold 47% were cash transactions, 45% were conventional, 4% FHA and 4% other/owner/VA

P.S. Hope you can all use the info and have a great weekend, Tony...

Tony Perez

VIP Realty Group, INC.

239-850-1168  (Direct)

239-437-7512  (Fax)

My Real Estate Blog

www.TonyPerez.VIPrealty.com      

Below is the market report for Naples Single Family Homes and as you can see by the charts below new listings are down 3% which helps lower supply. Sold listings are still trending up ever so slightly this month and the median prices of those sold are up 2% to $259,000. Median price means half of the homes sold for more than $259,000 and the other half sold for less than that price. Another great sign was that pending sales are up 16% and with new listings down that means slowly but surely we're starting to go through the high inventory of homes on the market.