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perfomance by price range - 08/30/10 01:44 PM
time to revisit the performance of the market by price range to get a grasp of how this year is doing as compared to the past. some interesting facts to ponder . the real one is the fact that sales are 44% lower than 2006 the peak year.
TAX CREDIT REPEAT ? - 08/30/10 12:50 PM
HOUSING IS SOLVED BY JOBS NOT TAX CREDITS. ALL TAX CREDITS DO IS REWARD SOMEONE FOR DOING WHAT THEY WOULD HAVE DONE ANYWAY. AND THE STUPIDITY GOES ON AND ON No Decision on Reviving Homebuyer Credit: Donovan
Published: August 29, 2010 WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Obama administration has not decided whether it should resurrect a popular tax credit for first-time homebuyers, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan said on Sunday. "It's too early to say whether the tax credit will be revived," Donovan said in an interview on CNN's "State of the Union" program. He (1 comments)
delay does not stop decline - 08/27/10 09:08 AM
To regain health unfortunately the fever must break. In housing that means delinquent loans must be foreclosed on and the properties sold. The information below reminds me of the old adage " you can fool some of the people some of the time but you can't fool all the people all the time" the market as whole understands the delaying tactic only prolongs the soft market, and individuals respond according by delaying taking action and the spiral continues to decline regardless of the wizards behind the curtain in OZ. "The industry as a whole got into a panic mode and was (1 comments)
market absorption and trends - 08/27/10 08:47 AM
The time it takes for inventory to be absorbed by the market place is an indicator of overall activity and along with that the relationship of pending sales and expired/withdrawn tells us what to expect in terms of activity. From my perspective on the market, the graph really says two things, at current inventory levels and purchasers entering the market place, it will take approximately 2200 homes on the market to produce 1054 closed transaction. Yet that is really an over estimation of the strength of the market due to the tax credit availability for 133 days of the 252 days (0 comments)
recovery timing and problems - 08/26/10 04:05 PM
All the issues communicated below will be solved by one of two methods #1 our country starts to produce jobs or #2 the number of properties foreclosed on finally goes thru the 13.4 million properties mentioned with negative or near negative equity or to turn the looking glass around, take the homes already foreclosed on yet not yet sold add them to the mix and you come up with a total distressed property total of over 15 million homes when you realize that number then you clearly see the solution needs #1 instead of #2 and even at that with a (0 comments)
are we headed in the same direction - 08/26/10 09:54 AM
Below is a graph of the relationship of new home sales to existing sales as you can generally a pretty close relationship. A fairly large gap has developed during this period of economic upheaval. Hopefully existing sales do not fall to what would be the "normal" relationship with new home sales. Yet with the unemployment levels where they are and the direction of both existing sales and new home construction sales both headed in the same direction it does not paint a pretty picture. I would think in terms of new home construction the fall is logically over since at this (2 comments)
new home sales - 08/25/10 12:14 PM
new home sales hit another record low. it makes me belive that the powers that be do not undertsand what drives housing ad that driver is jobs. with anualized rate of 276,000 homes sales that is an 80.2% from the peak and a 59.47% drop from 47 year average.
seriously deliquent loans - 08/25/10 08:57 AM
here is a sampling from the federal reserve of different counties around the state and around the united sates Mortgage delinquency rates 90 days or more Nationally 5.7% Cascade 1.8% Lewis and Clark 2.0% Silver bow 2.0% Yellowstone county 2.2% Gallatin 3.3% Missoula 3.3% Ravalli 3.9% Lake 4.3% Flathead 5.1% Las Vegas 16.1% Miami 23.2% Phoenix 11.1% Los Angeles 10% Denver 5.2% Boise 5.1% Spokane 2.9% (0 comments)
national sales for july - 08/24/10 09:56 AM
By the time you read this the July sales figures for housing may have been released. I would expect as ugly as they will be, and how far off the "consensus" will be, the stock market will respond in kind. This is a sampling of mls sales data from around the country all the year of year for July all are negative and you thought 2009 was ugly. Until the powers that be figure out employment is the key to economic growth, and not government jobs, look forward to mired swamp with more foreclosures and price drops.
active to pending ratio - 08/24/10 09:53 AM
The relationship of inventory to pending sales is paramount to the health of any business to much inventory and to little sales carrying cost become to much of a burden, inventory becomes out of date. Sooooooo the solution is discount the inventory to make attractive to buy. Well folks that is the direction we are headed in Yellowstone county. You can see the peak at the end of april and the tax credit the realation of inventory to pending sales peaked at 40% meaing you would expect 400 pending sales per 1000 listings that ratio is now 20% which does not (0 comments)
inventory continues to climb - 08/23/10 09:36 AM
below is a chart showing the inventory trend. although inventory tend climb through about this time of year, yjis is not the trend we would pefer to see. inventory is now 25% higher than a year ago at this time
single family building - 08/17/10 11:16 AM
here are two graphs from the federal reserve showing both permits and single family starts. the numbers are as follows the annualized starts for june 432k which is down 76.79% from the peak and down 53.49% from the five year average and up 19 .33% from the bottom. it is obvious we have a long way to go to solve the housing issue . the solution is employment everything else will follow.
market performance caution infromation - 08/17/10 10:54 AM
There has been a fair amount of press lately about the "recovery" of the California real estate market a few thoughts to ponder about that train of thought Information from the Appraisal Institute's 16th Annual Summer conference on Thursday, July 29, 2010 The problem will vary by region, but referring to Riverside County in Southern California, Norris presented some pretty alarming statistics:
Many borrowers haven't made a payment in more than two years and have yet to receive a Notice of Default. Think extend and pretend about defaults
· 23% of prime borrowers are not making payments · 47% (1 comments)
Update the combination of credit and down payment requirements for new borrowers.New borrowers seeking FHA-insured financing will be required to have a minimum FICO score of 580 to qualify for FHA's flagship 3.5 percent down payment program. New borrowers with credit scores of less than a 580 will be required to make a cash investment of at least 10 percent. Borrowers with credit scores of less than 500 will no longer qualify for an FHA-insured mortgage. Reduce allowable seller concessions from (0 comments)
price range by market share - 08/12/10 08:19 AM
some shifts with price ranges. the most interesting is the movement in the high end while the percentage is up back to the performance in 2008 the actual number of sales are half 2008. so what that indicates si a shift in the make up of the sales , some low registers are less in number allowing the higher end to show percentage gains in the market place. two graphs below the higher price registers of the maket and the lower hiogher price regiters graph
lower price register graph
fha under water refiance program - 08/10/10 10:51 AM
heres a letter from fha anoucning underwater refinancing TO: ALL APPROVED MORTGAGEES SUBJECT: FHA Refinance of Borrowers in Negative Equity Positions
On March 26, 2010, the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the Department of the Treasury (Treasury) announced enhancements to the existing Making Home Affordable Program (MHA) and Federal Housing Administration (FHA) refinance program that will give a greater number of responsible borrowers an opportunity to remain in their homes. These enhancements are designed to maintain homeownership by providing borrowers, who owe more on their mortgage than the value of their home, opportunities to refinance into (4 comments)
fannie mae and frediie mac inventorynumbeer below. are we not glad that government has solved all the problems The combined REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA increased by 13% in Q2 2010 from Q1 2010. The REO inventory (lender Real Estate Owned) increased 74% compared to Q2 2009 (year-over-year comparison). (0 comments)
makert stats thru july 2010 - 08/09/10 09:30 AM
THE NUMBERS FOR THE MARKET THROUGH THE END OF JULY ARE AN INTERESTING MIXTURE. SALES PRICE IS UP, ALTHOUGH LOOKS SUSPICIOUSLY LIKE MERELY A TAX CREDIT BOOST. MY BELIEF THE REAL; IS THE TALE OF THE TAPE IN THREE MEASUREMENTS: 1ST IS INVENTORY UP 13% FROM LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME, 2ND THE COMPARISON WITH PENDING SALES FROM LAST YEAR AT THIS TIME DOWN 21% AND THE THIRD MEASUREMENT IS ABSORPTION TIME UP TO 246 DAYS, NOT THE MEASUREMENT OF STRENGTH HOUSING IS LOOKING FOR. A VERY BRIGHT SPOT IN THE REPORT FOR JULY IS NEW SINGLE FAMILY STARTS UP FROM (0 comments)
active to pending ratio market finding it's footing - 08/07/10 12:25 PM
one key measurement i always use is the relationship between active listings to pending sales to gage the health of the overall market. the reason is inventory or sales under contract by and of them selves or neither good or bad it is there relationship that determines the strength of the market . as can be seen from the graph below the tax credit had a huge impact and since it has gone the market has changed significantly.
employment, housing money spent - 08/06/10 10:17 AM
The debate goes on whether the economy has improved, improving or falling back into a double dip recession. You can have an arcane discussion about growth and the effectiveness of the actions that have been taken orrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr you can look at the effectiveness of job growth. An important lesson I believe is that government does not create jobs, private industry creates jobs. You hire people when you believe you can make a profit from the labor they provide whether services, knowledge or production. Employment peaked in the United States in December of 2007 according to the bureau of labor statistics and (0 comments)
tax credits negative effect - 08/04/10 09:45 AM
Pretty graphic changes caused by the irrational use of a tax credit to pull buyers forward in their decision making process. Totally disrupted the sales market and now it will take longer to normalize. When you look at the graphic think about 4.25% to 4.5% 30 year loans, fifty year lows, and then ask yourself if anything has been accomplished with all the tax money spent when sales drop as the graph indicates. A few choice quotes from the chairman of Horton home builders "Frankly, I don't want the tax credits to be re-enacted or be re-created or extended," CEO Donald (36 comments)
negative equity - 08/01/10 08:01 PM
When trying to read the tea leaves of the direction and velocity of the housing issues out there, I ran across this piece of information. The untied states has approximately 112 million homes (census bureau 2008) at that time approximately 75 million were owner occupant and 42.7% had moved into their homes since 2000 which translates into about 32 million home owner. Logic tell us that this group is where the majority of the negative equity homeowners would be in this group of recent movers (purchased since 2000) while 19% of the total home owners would be underwater most probably 40+ (4 comments)
single faamily permits fro montana - 08/01/10 11:31 AM
more evidence of the the tax credit and the weakness of housing throughout the state, this is the number of single family permits issued around the state comparing Junes not the trend you would like to see and especially in June heading into the "normal" strength of the building season
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