howard sumner: Market Update at a Glance November 2013 - 12/07/13 11:13 AM
“Looking Back”
 
I am going to do two things month, which will make this a long report overall. First I will look at the changes form November 2012 to November 2013, then second I will go back and look at 2006 (the peak year in residential sales) and compare to 2013 to see how we have done.  In single family permits we see the fourth  year over year monthly decrease (permits down 13% from November 2012,  total single family permits still have a gain of 17% for the year, as a comparison in march 2013 permits were up 66% year … (2 comments)

howard sumner: New Construction Nationally - 12/04/13 02:23 PM
 
When our friends in Washington D.C. shutdown, it meant that some data was not collected. Primarily it effected starts not permit and sales, well that is not quite true, the data below is for October. Sales were not released until December which is a month later than it would normally be and both September and October were released at the same time. The question that comes to my mind is if  you were use to making $100,000 per year for the last 50 years and  had weathered the recession and now were making $68,000 a year would say you had … (1 comments)

howard sumner: NEW CONSTRUCTION BILLINGS MONTANA - 12/02/13 11:01 AM
 
THIS TIME OF YEAR I START ASKING MYSELF QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MARKET PLACE AND THE ANSWERS I ALWAYS FIND INTERESTING
 
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN BILLINGS AREA
 
WHEN LOOKING HOW WELL OR POOR WE ARE DOING THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT THE SEGMENT.
 
#1 COMPARING NUMBER OF SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS ISSUES
 
#2 COMPARING SINGLE FAMILY PERMITS PLUS DUPLEX PERMITS MULTIPLIED BY 2 FOR LIVING UNITS
 
#3 COMPARING TOTAL DOLLAR VALUE OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#4 COMPARING POPULATION TO TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
#5 COMPARING EMPLOYMENT TOTAL OF PERMITS ISSUED
 
 
 
MY … (0 comments)

howard sumner: County employment Montana - 11/24/13 09:42 AM
 
Since our friends in Washington D.C. decided to shut down for a while. Employment numbers have not been published for a couple months for Montana. Always good to see what is happening with employment since more people working means,  in all likely hood, more homes will be sold. Although not a direct correlation employment is a good predictor, since it is impossible now to qualify for a loan without income.
 
 
 
 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at glance october 2013 - 11/05/13 06:19 PM
 
October 31st 2013
 
“Market Qualifiers”
 
One  theme that I always carry with me about the real estate market or the economy in general is the qualifier to any analysis I do is “ unless our friends in Washington D.C. do something stupid all bets are off” we have now been through a period where I believe the comment applies in spades. So why are the actions or more appropriately inactions of our friends a concern here in paradise where we live? First when people get nervous or are unsure what is occurring they hesitate or hold back.   In … (0 comments)

howard sumner: Have new financing rules affected the market - 10/19/13 10:55 AM
 
You would assume if the price of something dropped that was desirable to purchase that sales of that product would increase. Then why in the housing market would number and percentage of the market drop in the lower price ranges if it cost about 18.5% less to buy today than it did in 2007?
 

 

 

 
 
 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at glance spetmebr 2013 Billings Montana - 10/10/13 11:31 AM
 
Market update at glance
 
September 30th 2013
 
The last quarter shuffle
 
Three Quarters of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last Quarter of the year,   what behavior might we expect from the market place. Typically the market slows in the last quarter inventory normally shrinks and sales slow as we head into the holidays, usually the real noticeable shift comes in the second week of November just before thanks giving.                                                                                                            In single family permits we see the second year over year monthly decrease (permits down 28% from September 2012, yet total single … (1 comments)

howard sumner: Market update at glance august 2013 - 09/10/13 07:03 AM
Market update at glance
August 31st 2013
Trends are they my friend?
Two thirds of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last third of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. In single family permits we see the first year over year monthly decrease (permits down 21% from august 2012, yet total single family permits still up 33% for the year. The increase in residential unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 21% year over year, the absorption rate shows an decrease of 2% year over … (0 comments)

howard sumner: THE DEATH OF MANUFACTURED (MOBILE) HOMES? - 09/09/13 08:52 AM
SINCE 2000 THROUGH 2012 PLACEMENT OF MOBILE HOMES HAS DROPPED 81.14%, SO A NATURAL QUESTION IS  WHERE DID THOSE PERSON GO TO LIVE?

Source:  These data are produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau from a  survey sponsored by the U.S. Department of                    Housing and Urban Development.
 
 
THEY MUST NOT BE BUYING NEW HOMES SINCE THE RATE OF NEW HOMES SALES HAS DROPPED 50% SINCE 2000.
INTERESTING THOUGHT TO PONDER

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AND THE POPULATION HAS INCREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 36,000,000 MILLION PEOPLE OR … (2 comments)

howard sumner: Housing brain teaser - 08/23/13 09:43 AM
ONE WOULD THINK THAT AS YOU INCREASED THE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN AREA, DEMAND FOR HOUSING SHOULD INCREASE, THE OTHER THOUGHT THAT COMES TO MIND IF YOU MADE HOUSING LESS EXPENSIVE TO PURCHASE IN RELATION TO INCOME, MORE BUYERS WOULD BE IN THE MARKET PLACE
SO THE THOUGHT TO PONDER…………………..
ARE THE ABOVE TWO THOUGHTS WRONG OR IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE HOUSING MARKET?




 
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howard sumner: New construction Nationaly - 08/18/13 09:13 AM
A broken record maybe, yet when I look at new construction nationally, I ask myself if I had lost  44 to 32% of my ability to walk from an accident, would I consider myself recovered, that’s how much construction is off from the 50 year average. I would venture not a stellar performance, this is most probably driven by the fact, in the prime home buying segment  25 to 54 year olds, nationally their employment is still 6 million fewer working than when we began this economic event.
 
 
 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at glance thru july 31st 2013 - 08/07/13 03:27 PM
Cycle, cycle, cycle
The Second half of the year has begun and the residential market in Billings enters its normal second half of the year behaviour. While we see year over year increases we see month to month decreases. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year while the month over month saw a 6.5% decline, the decrease in market time is 22% year over year, the absorption rate shows an increase of 4% y o y  and an increase of 4% month over month, the increase in pending sales is a positive  9% y o y … (0 comments)

howard sumner: Judging the market over time - 07/30/13 02:33 PM
Real-estate values are influenced by several factors, income growth population growth employment growth and interest rate. When looking at Yellowstone County and the current price movements and whether the appreciation is solid or sordid, looking at the underlying factors might lead to a conclusion
First is income
#1 since 2001 the median family is 34.67% higher 
Yellowstone County is 51.44% higher

 
Second is employment
#1 since 2001 the Number employed is 18.74% higher 

 
Third is Population
#1 since 2001 the population is 18.01% higher, which translates into a need for a total of 9,909 … (0 comments)

howard sumner: Home Ownership Sales and Rents? - 07/19/13 05:48 AM
Thought to ponder as we progress down the road,  in the second quarter of 2004 home ownership rate peaked at 69.2% dropping  to 65% in the first quarter of 2013. What opportunities and challenges does that present in the housing market . In May 2013 existing home sales were seasonally adjusted rate to be 5,180,000 the peak was 2005 at 7,076,000, so sales are still, nationally 26.79% off the peak. How does this affect your view of probably total sales nationwide as interest rates rise and what happens to rents?

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howard sumner: National new home starts and permits through june 2013 - 07/17/13 07:54 AM
New numbers released this morning , what do the tea leaves say to you. Both from the peak and the 50 year averages still off by major/recession/depression depending on how you want to define, though impressive number bounce from the bottom no doubt,
So the thought to ponder ………….. is if rates go back to 2006 which averaged 6.4% for a 30 year instead of todays 4.07% average for June which direction does the new home business  head
 
 

 


 

 

 

 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at glance June 30th 2013 - 07/12/13 05:31 AM
Market update at glance
June 30th 2013
The first half of the year is over and if it were a football game the residential market in Billings would be leading 21 to zero. The increase in in unit sales is up 9% year over year, the decrease in market time is 20% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 6% , the increase in pending sales is a positive  24%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is a positive  within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the … (0 comments)

howard sumner: market update at glance May 31st 2013 - 06/22/13 07:54 AM
Market update at glance
May 31th 2013
Encore, Encore is the usual audience response for an outstanding performance at the theater.  I believe as I review the performance of the market for the first five months of 2013 that should be our response to the behavior of the market so far. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 18% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 17% , the increase in pending sales is a positive  17%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year … (0 comments)

howard sumner: Market update at glance thru April 2013 - 05/05/13 12:27 PM
Market update at glance
April 30th 2013
As I sit and review the performance of the market for the first four months of 2013, the increase in in unit sales is outstanding, the decrease in market time is phenomenal, the increase in pending sales is a positive trend, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is one of the most positive actions within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the increase in unit sales becomes a sustainable momentum and not a setup for a bad stumble. The other positive from the … (0 comments)

howard sumner: National housing permits and starts - 04/16/13 06:55 AM
The thought to ponder……. Impressive bounce from the bottom, yet housing is still 30 to 41% off the 50 year averages, and 56 to 65% off from the peaks, really cause for celebration?
That would put the dow in the 10,360 to 5,180 range who would be celebrating then?
 
 
 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at a Glance Through Marhc 31st 2013 - 04/14/13 05:51 AM
All roads lead to positive trends in the Single family real estate market. Yellowstone County has now has had year over year increase in number of sales since February 2012, 13 months in a row. Every category of measurement shows improvement. So what drives the positive trends, employment growth, population growth, and the Federal Reserve’s unwavering commitment to push and keep mortgage rates low. A quick comparison on the power of that policy, at current interest rates (3.57%) the approximate monthly payment with taxes and insurance at the average sales price home is just $1,286 per month, use the average interest … (1 comments)

 
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Howard Sumner

Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!

Billings, MT

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Howard Sumner Real Estate

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