howard sumner: Home Ownership Sales and Rents? - 07/19/13 05:48 AM
Thought to ponder as we progress down the road,  in the second quarter of 2004 home ownership rate peaked at 69.2% dropping  to 65% in the first quarter of 2013. What opportunities and challenges does that present in the housing market . In May 2013 existing home sales were seasonally adjusted rate to be 5,180,000 the peak was 2005 at 7,076,000, so sales are still, nationally 26.79% off the peak. How does this affect your view of probably total sales nationwide as interest rates rise and what happens to rents?

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howard sumner: National new home starts and permits through june 2013 - 07/17/13 07:54 AM
New numbers released this morning , what do the tea leaves say to you. Both from the peak and the 50 year averages still off by major/recession/depression depending on how you want to define, though impressive number bounce from the bottom no doubt,
So the thought to ponder ………….. is if rates go back to 2006 which averaged 6.4% for a 30 year instead of todays 4.07% average for June which direction does the new home business  head
 
 

 


 

 

 

 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at glance June 30th 2013 - 07/12/13 05:31 AM
Market update at glance
June 30th 2013
The first half of the year is over and if it were a football game the residential market in Billings would be leading 21 to zero. The increase in in unit sales is up 9% year over year, the decrease in market time is 20% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 6% , the increase in pending sales is a positive  24%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is a positive  within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the … (0 comments)

howard sumner: market update at glance May 31st 2013 - 06/22/13 07:54 AM
Market update at glance
May 31th 2013
Encore, Encore is the usual audience response for an outstanding performance at the theater.  I believe as I review the performance of the market for the first five months of 2013 that should be our response to the behavior of the market so far. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 18% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 17% , the increase in pending sales is a positive  17%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year … (0 comments)

howard sumner: Market update at glance thru April 2013 - 05/05/13 12:27 PM
Market update at glance
April 30th 2013
As I sit and review the performance of the market for the first four months of 2013, the increase in in unit sales is outstanding, the decrease in market time is phenomenal, the increase in pending sales is a positive trend, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is one of the most positive actions within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the increase in unit sales becomes a sustainable momentum and not a setup for a bad stumble. The other positive from the … (0 comments)

howard sumner: National housing permits and starts - 04/16/13 06:55 AM
The thought to ponder……. Impressive bounce from the bottom, yet housing is still 30 to 41% off the 50 year averages, and 56 to 65% off from the peaks, really cause for celebration?
That would put the dow in the 10,360 to 5,180 range who would be celebrating then?
 
 
 
 
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howard sumner: Market update at a Glance Through Marhc 31st 2013 - 04/14/13 05:51 AM
All roads lead to positive trends in the Single family real estate market. Yellowstone County has now has had year over year increase in number of sales since February 2012, 13 months in a row. Every category of measurement shows improvement. So what drives the positive trends, employment growth, population growth, and the Federal Reserve’s unwavering commitment to push and keep mortgage rates low. A quick comparison on the power of that policy, at current interest rates (3.57%) the approximate monthly payment with taxes and insurance at the average sales price home is just $1,286 per month, use the average interest … (1 comments)

howard sumner: Market trend question - 04/08/13 08:34 AM
Does history indicate the future and can we project past norms to discern future trends?
Lots of different ways to look at the both the residential sales price market and the price of rentals and their relationship to each other
The 1st graph shows the price differential between purchasing a home at the then current interest rate and price and renting an apartment in the Billings area
The 2nd graph shows the payment trend at the sales price and interest rate at each year
The 3rd graph shows average and median sales prices for each year
The 4th graph shows the … (1 comments)

howard sumner: ownership vs. recovery - 03/20/13 08:22 AM
 
Thought to ponder from peak ownership rate, to today the ownership rate has dropped 3%, based on the time before the explosion in housing it was holding about another 2% lower than it is today. Based sales and on the information below is the glass half empty or half full or is it as full as it most probably going to get nationwide?

 
30 year pi median sales price 1985  $932---30 year pi median sales price 2013  $1094
median earnings 1985 $17,88 44.79% of the income to  qualify for the payment
median earnings 2013 $39,936 85.18% of the … (1 comments)

howard sumner: Market update at glance Feburary 2013 - 03/10/13 05:42 PM


Market at a Glance February 2013

 

We are now two months into the year and the good numbers continue to roll through the housing market here in Yellowstone Count, Inventory lower by 18%, pending sales up by 16%, closed sales up by 24%, new home permits up 61% all outstanding performance for the residential market. The driver for most of this outstanding performance comes from three things interest rate and jobs and population growth.   First let’s talk about interest rates, the Federal Reserve through  buying mortgages and not selling any of previous mortgages has managed to … (0 comments)

howard sumner: Billings Single Family permits vs. nationally - 03/01/13 07:01 AM
What does recovery in single family new construction look like?
When you listen to press you would think that single family new construction Nationally had recovered and is humming along. So I thought it might be useful to see visual as well as number wise where single family new home has been, where it is, then look at the Billings market and compare.
1st the graph below shows Nationally single family permits since January 1st 2005, was the peak year in single family permits nationally.
#1 the peak was September of 2005, the single family permits were issued at the rate … (0 comments)

howard sumner: New construction for January Nationally - 02/28/13 03:30 PM
New construction for January Nationally
The box below is basically comparing January of 2012 to January of 2013. The new construction market shows improvements straight across the board which is a positive, as always when you are comparing smaller numbers the percentage increase show as huge move. Permits issued show a more positive outlook than the actually starts.
 


 
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howard sumner: Market update at glance January 2013 - 02/06/13 04:10 PM
Market update at glance
January 2013
As I sit and review the performance of the market for January and all of 2012, the increase in in unit sales is outstanding, the decrease in market time is phenomenal, the increase in pending sales is a positive trend, yet then I get to price movement and scratch my head. The normal expectation would be with the type of increase in demand indicated by unit sales, the market should experience pretty dynamitic pricing pressure, yet when you look at the pricing data, that does come through the market. So the question becomes, will the … (0 comments)

howard sumner: rental market year review video - 01/28/13 10:07 AM

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howard sumner: The King has no clothes - 01/28/13 05:40 AM
In the child’s fairy tale, in order to save  their lives the tailor’s convinced the King they were weaving his clothes from Gold, of course they could not do that, yet none of the Kings advisors dare mention he had no clothes. When the king went out through  the kingdom in his woven gold clothes that did not exist, it was a child that did have the blinded eyes of bending down to power, that he exclaimed “the king has no clothes”.  So it with housing, the peak was in 2005 we are now in the eight year from the peak. … (3 comments)

howard sumner: Power on interest rates on Purchasing - 01/27/13 11:14 AM
The power of interest rates on purchasing
When looking at today’s market concerning interest rates the best perspective is look at the economy in the recent past. Since the economic events of 2008 the Federal Reserve has committed to driving interest rates down to spur sales in the housing sector and the economy in general.
In 2007 the interest rate average for the year was 6.34% for a thirty year mortgage, fast forward to 2012 the average for the year was 3.66% or a drop of 42.27%. comparing the median sales over that same period of time the median sales price … (1 comments)

howard sumner: simpler home office deduction - 01/23/13 05:59 AM
The IRS today announced a simplified option that many owners of home-based businesses and some home-based workers may use to figure their deductions for the business use of their homes. In tax year 2010, the most recent year for which figures are available, nearly 3.4 million taxpayers claimed deductions for business use of a home (commonly referred to as the home office deduction).
The new optional deduction, capped at $1,500 per year based on $5 a square foot for up to 300 square feet, will reduce the paperwork and recordkeeping burden on small businesses by an estimated 1.6 million hours annually. … (0 comments)

howard sumner: year end rental market report - 01/20/13 03:10 PM
Year end rental market report
this INFORMATION is a composite of over 15,400 SEPARATE ads in 2012 and over 87,000 in the last five years.
#1 about 13% fewer units advertised for rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011
#2 about 5% increase in pricing in APARTMENTS for rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011
#3 about 3% increase in pricing in HOMES FOR rent 2012 COMPARED to 2011
#4 the home rental market FOR a three bedroom with GARAGE INDICATES it is cheaper to own than rent. THE AVERAGE RENTAL CHARGE is $1,257 for a three BEDROOM home with a garage.  the AVERAGE MONTHLY … (2 comments)

howard sumner: Yellowstone County looking 10 years back - 01/09/13 07:02 AM
Thought it might be fun to do the ten year comparison for Yellowstone county home sales
Soooooooo I thought let’s compare today to ten years ago to today and see what we shall see
#1 Population               2002        132,165         vs.     2012     51,814               an increase of  14.86%
#2 employment            2002        71,690           vs.     2012     78,672              An increase of  9.73%
#3 interest rates           2002       6.54%            vs.     2012      3.66%               a decrease of  44%
#4 Average Wage         2002       $28,535        vs.     2012       $41,532           an increase of  45.54%
#5 Consumer  CPI         2002       177.7             vs.     2012      231.325            an increase of  30%
#6 Sales Price … (0 comments)

howard sumner: BABY BOOMERS AND OTHER MYTHS - 01/08/13 10:37 AM
 
RECENTLY WAS READING AN ANALYSIS OF WHAT IS TRANSPIRING IN THE LABOR FORCE ON ONE OF THE GREAT TENANTS THE REASON THE NUMBER OF “NOT IN THE LABOR FORCE IS GROWING IS BABY BOOMERS ARE RETIRING AND LEAVING THE WORK FORCE NOT THAT PEOPLE ARE GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK. IF PEOPLE WERE GIVING UP LOOKING FOR WORK THAT WOULD MEAN THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS MUCH HIGHER . Not that I am doubting Thomas, yet I wanted to look the information up myself to make sure that i was not passing along :”bad “ information .
 
so lets look … (0 comments)

 
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Howard Sumner

Your Real Estate Source, Your Results Solution!!

Billings, MT

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Howard Sumner Real Estate

Address: 404 north 31st street, suite 130, billings, mt, 59101

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