DECEMBER 31ST 2015 “LOOKING BACK, end of the year 2015 report” December’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”. The end of DECEMBER 2015 numbers, closed sales up +5%, pending sales up +21 %, inventory up +1%, and interest rates up +3% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines will end this month (December) would be my prediction, which is what happened. All things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015. As of the end of the week of January 8th the rig count in North … (1 comments)
real estate: Through the looking glass - Alice in the wonderland of Housing
- 08/23/15 11:55 PM
Through the looking glass - Alice in the wonderland of Housing What follow is an analysis of Yellowstone County and the housing market to see if we can discern where it might head over the next couple of years by understanding income and household growth to see if we are in “balance” or has there been more housing produced than what is needed by growth or has pricing outpaced income. Two things that are important to know 2006 was the year in which the greatest number of residential properties were sold in the mls and 2013 was the (I think) the bottom of … (3 comments)
I think I will start Januarys market update with the same quote as Decembers, In the immortal words attributed to Yogi Berra "It's Hard to Make Predictions, Especially about the Future". I think that best describes 2015 Market. At the end of January 2015, closed sales down -9%, pending sales down -1%, inventory down -3%, and interest rates down-17% from the year earlier. As of the end of the week of February 3rd the rig count in North Dakota is down 36 … (1 comments)
real estate: Market Update at a Glance July 2014
- 08/20/14 02:51 AM
JULY 31ST 2014 “SECOND HALF IS WHERE THE GAME IS WON?” Two Months of summer gone, second half of the year beginning, so which way will be the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, July 2014 essentially matched last year in homes closed, 188 closed in 2013, 187 reported so far in July 2014. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 1194 through July as compared to 1268 in 2013, a 6% decline, so the market is creeping on matching 2013, one factor that stumped us all, is interest rate, the 10 year treasury, is actually … (1 comments)
real estate: Is renting cheaper than buying in Billings montana?
- 08/03/14 11:14 PM
Since there seems to be a lot of press about how it may be better to rent than buy a home, I thought I would compare current asking price for renting different types of homes Yellowstone county to the same basic description of the selling price of a home and the payment needed to own that home. The monthly home payment is figured at 100% financing with a FHA at 4.12% 30 year loan, using 26% for taxes and insurance . The asking price for rents comes from my weekly survey of rental availability. Through this weekend that would be over … (1 comments)
real estate: Market Update at a Glance May 2014
- 06/07/14 06:56 AM
“Winter of discontent and other Myths” Safely into late spring and the beginning of summer, worth one last time to ask how much winter effected the direction of the market. First let’s look at closed transactions, May 2014 continued with fewer homes closed. Number of closed sales in Yellowstone County are 716 as compared to 788 in 2013, a 9% decline, so in June sales would need to increase approximately 29% above June 2013 to reach the same midyear units closed and put 2014 on track to match 2013, an unlikely event, when May had close to perfect weather and … (0 comments)
real estate: Does it "cost" More to buy a home today?
- 05/12/14 02:16 AM
When I review the market in Yellowstone county I always try and think of different ways to look at what happens both long term and short term. With that in mind it prompted me to ask the subject line question. And there are many ways to answer the question, your point of view may determine your answer. Let’s look at the information on Yellowstone county since 2006, since it was the peak year in sales and we have not reached that level again and most probably will not reach that level of unit sales in 2014 either.
First let just … (29 comments)
real estate: national new home constructions 2013 end of year
- 01/27/14 04:30 AM
End of the year new home sales released today. So a great time to look back and ask the perianal question “Has single family new construction nationally recovered?”
You would think that after eight years from the peak that would be an irrelevant question at this point, unfortunately not. Since 2005 which was the peak in the building cycle interest rate has dropped -37.12% from 6.33% average in 2005 to 3.98% average for 2013. In any “normal” economy (whatever that is now) that type of shift would have home sales explode. Yet from 2005 that peak year we see … (0 comments)
One theme that I always carry with me about the real estate market or the economy in general is the qualifier to any analysis I do is “ unless our friends in Washington D.C. do something stupid all bets are off” we have now been through a period where I believe the comment applies in spades. So why are the actions or more appropriately inactions of our friends a concern here in paradise where we live? First when people get nervous or are unsure what is occurring they hesitate or hold back. In … (0 comments)
real estate: Have new financing rules affected the market
- 10/19/13 03:55 AM
You would assume if the price of something dropped that was desirable to purchase that sales of that product would increase. Then why in the housing market would number and percentage of the market drop in the lower price ranges if it cost about 18.5% less to buy today than it did in 2007?
Three Quarters of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last Quarter of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. Typically the market slows in the last quarter inventory normally shrinks and sales slow as we head into the holidays, usually the real noticeable shift comes in the second week of November just before thanks giving. In single family permits we see the second year over year monthly decrease (permits down 28% from September 2012, yet total single … (1 comments)
real estate: Market update at glance august 2013
- 09/10/13 12:03 AM
Market update at glance August 31st 2013 Trends are they my friend? Two thirds of the year over, the residential market in Billings entering the last third of the year, what behavior might we expect from the market place. In single family permits we see the first year over year monthly decrease (permits down 21% from august 2012, yet total single family permits still up 33% for the year. The increase in residential unit sales is up 10% year over year, the decrease in market time is 21% year over year, the absorption rate shows an decrease of 2% year over … (0 comments)
Source: These data are produced by the U.S. Commerce Department's Census Bureau from a survey sponsored by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.
THEY MUST NOT BE BUYING NEW HOMES SINCE THE RATE OF NEW HOMES SALES HAS DROPPED 50% SINCE 2000. INTERESTING THOUGHT TO PONDER
<!--[if gte vml 1]><v:shape id="Picture_x0020_2" o:spid="_x0000_i1026" type="#_x0000_t75" alt="" style='width:717pt;height:311.5pt'> <v:imagedata src="file:///C:\Users\SUMNER~1\AppData\Local\Temp\msohtmlclip1\01\clip_image003.png" o:href="cid:image007.png@01CEAD35.B90E30F0"/> </v:shape><![endif]--><!--[if !vml]--><!--[endif]--> AND THE POPULATION HAS INCREASED BY APPROXIMATELY 36,000,000 MILLION PEOPLE OR … (2 comments)
real estate: Housing brain teaser
- 08/23/13 02:43 AM
ONE WOULD THINK THAT AS YOU INCREASED THE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT IN AREA, DEMAND FOR HOUSING SHOULD INCREASE, THE OTHER THOUGHT THAT COMES TO MIND IF YOU MADE HOUSING LESS EXPENSIVE TO PURCHASE IN RELATION TO INCOME, MORE BUYERS WOULD BE IN THE MARKET PLACE SO THE THOUGHT TO PONDER………………….. ARE THE ABOVE TWO THOUGHTS WRONG OR IS THERE SOMETHING ELSE GOING ON IN THE HOUSING MARKET?
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real estate: New construction Nationaly
- 08/18/13 02:13 AM
A broken record maybe, yet when I look at new construction nationally, I ask myself if I had lost 44 to 32% of my ability to walk from an accident, would I consider myself recovered, that’s how much construction is off from the 50 year average. I would venture not a stellar performance, this is most probably driven by the fact, in the prime home buying segment 25 to 54 year olds, nationally their employment is still 6 million fewer working than when we began this economic event.
… (1 comments)
real estate: Market update at glance thru july 31st 2013
- 08/07/13 08:27 AM
Cycle, cycle, cycle The Second half of the year has begun and the residential market in Billings enters its normal second half of the year behaviour. While we see year over year increases we see month to month decreases. The increase in in unit sales is up 10% year over year while the month over month saw a 6.5% decline, the decrease in market time is 22% year over year, the absorption rate shows an increase of 4% y o y and an increase of 4% month over month, the increase in pending sales is a positive 9% y o y … (0 comments)
real estate: Judging the market over time
- 07/30/13 07:33 AM
Real-estate values are influenced by several factors, income growth population growth employment growth and interest rate. When looking at Yellowstone County and the current price movements and whether the appreciation is solid or sordid, looking at the underlying factors might lead to a conclusion First is income #1 since 2001 the median family is 34.67% higher Yellowstone County is 51.44% higher
Second is employment #1 since 2001 the Number employed is 18.74% higher
Third is Population #1 since 2001 the population is 18.01% higher, which translates into a need for a total of 9,909 … (0 comments)
real estate: Home Ownership Sales and Rents?
- 07/18/13 10:48 PM
Thought to ponder as we progress down the road, in the second quarter of 2004 home ownership rate peaked at 69.2% dropping to 65% in the first quarter of 2013. What opportunities and challenges does that present in the housing market . In May 2013 existing home sales were seasonally adjusted rate to be 5,180,000 the peak was 2005 at 7,076,000, so sales are still, nationally 26.79% off the peak. How does this affect your view of probably total sales nationwide as interest rates rise and what happens to rents?
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real estate: National new home starts and permits through june 2013
- 07/17/13 12:54 AM
New numbers released this morning , what do the tea leaves say to you. Both from the peak and the 50 year averages still off by major/recession/depression depending on how you want to define, though impressive number bounce from the bottom no doubt, So the thought to ponder ………….. is if rates go back to 2006 which averaged 6.4% for a 30 year instead of todays 4.07% average for June which direction does the new home business head
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real estate: Market update at glance June 30th 2013
- 07/11/13 10:31 PM
Market update at glance June 30th 2013 The first half of the year is over and if it were a football game the residential market in Billings would be leading 21 to zero. The increase in in unit sales is up 9% year over year, the decrease in market time is 20% year over year, the absorption rate shows a decrease of 6% , the increase in pending sales is a positive 24%, the market velocity is a decreasing increase year over year in closed sales, this is a positive within the market. The reason for its positive effect is the … (0 comments)
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