In the child’s fairy tale, in order to save  their lives the tailor’s convinced the King they were weaving his clothes from Gold, of course they could not do that, yet none of the Kings advisors dare mention he had no clothes. When the king went out through  the kingdom in his woven gold clothes that did not exist, it was a child that did have the blinded eyes of bending down to power, that he exclaimed “the king has no clothes”.  So it with housing, the peak was in 2005 we are now in the eight year from the peak.  Single family permits, starts and sales are between  67 to 69% below the peak  and 42 to 49% below the fifty year average. Since I would take the child’s view, I believe the king has no clothes any industry that is running that far below the fifty year average is not recovering and has serious structural problems  yet kings without clothes can proclaim that we are in Camelot and it never rains during the day. ……………………………………………………. Thoughts to ponder

Headline from CNN January 27th 2013

 

Housing to drive economic growth (finally!)

 

By Chris Isidore @CNNMoneyJanuary 27, 2013: 5:33 PM ET

 

actual total for year permit issued   start of construction
    multi single   multi single single sales 
2012: Year to Date 813.4 514.4   780.0 535.5 367
2011: Year to Date 624.1 418.5   608.8 430.6 306
year over year + or  - 30.33% 22.92%   28.12% 24.36% 19.93%

  permits issued       permits issued total
  one unit structure       includes multi family
permits issued actual 12 month totals 514.4     813.4  
             
peak year   1682     2219  
permits % drop from peak   69%     63%
50 year average   911     1383  
permits % drop from 50 year   44%     41%
             
movement up from Bottom 353 46%   522 56%
             
  housing started       starts total  
  one unit structure       includes multi family
starts  actual 12 month totals 535.5     780  
             
peak year   1611     2357  
starts % drop from peak   67%     67%
50 year average   1056     1481  
starts % drop from 50 year   49%     47%
             
movement up from Bottom 360 49%   520 50%
             
             
  housing sales          
  one unit structure          
new single family sales 367        
             
peak year July 2005   1283        
sales % drop from peak   71%      
48 year average from 1963 628        
sales % drop from 48 year average   42%      
Bottom August 2010          
movement up from Bottom 278 32%      

 

Howard Sumner

Howard Sumner Real Estate

http://www.Realestatemontana.com

 

 

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