This fellow probably saved more people than anyone else on earth in the entire human history.
By proxy, he very likely saved US in the process.
Nobody in America or Europe knew he existed except those who opposed him long ago, and oppose his effects yet today in the guise of "environmental causes".
His long-lasting effects are evidence that some few Nobel Peace Prize Awardees actually earned the honor for their outcomes, not their "theories". Unfortunately, examples of his sort are in the minority in recent times.
During the Depression (the last one, not this one) he worked for the CCC, one of the many starvation-wages "Gov't Relief" program FDR put in place after he taxed the employers out of business.
While working in the CCC, Mr. Borlaug learned a lot about people who are starving, lessons learned from that era were put to use throughout the rest of his productive life.
He never quite understood why they were starving in the first place, but was a scientist and an activist of sorts, the causes of humankind's self-destructive ways weren't his bag.
Something's changing in FC/Shrt/Std ratios, some regions seeing some relief, others seeing more pain. Lee County's showing more pain (+4%) in the broad view.
South Cape Coral stands out clearly as a "pain center" in this view, North Cape shows a significant "relief center". LA in broad spectrum is beginning to move from painful to somewhat-relieved, with plenty of room for improvement. UEP areas where the future improved show less FC/Shrt %, though that may well be either temporary or my own wishful thinking. The longer view will tell the story more clearly..
INVENTORY vs. DEMAND - it'll end up being the driving force as usual.. "Usual" would be better than the calamity of our recent "Usual", but every day brings a whole new "Normal" these days.
We'll look forward to the newest "Normal" being something we can remember was a good time to be alive. If Mr/s. DEMAND doesn't die, Mr/s. Inventory will require a higher paycheck sooner or later. Mr/s. Inventory has reduced from 11,400 in Nov '08 to 10,800 today against a flood of 14,000 Mr/s Demands, all of whom have found themselves Owners and are spending their Cost Of Living in Lee County now (or their Tenants are).
The not-so-good news? We're probably going to have to learn to fly by OJT.
The nice part? This is when this SHOULD happen in a "balanced" cyclical tourist-driven market. Last year was a shock to many, expected by few, received by all regardless of expectations. It's why we call it "The Fall Season" in my world.
I'd expect these views to bring something like $120k avg / $81k Median as these come to closing (Sale$ vs. PDG @ List$).
MTD September Avg Sale$ is $126k/$85k, with about half of September on the books. That's UP from Aug ($122k/$83k), subject to change without prior notice (lag). :)
Double the REAL CASH money supply, fix the Banks, break the rest of the "little people" world by default. The Banks will multiply that cash by at least 10 times, likely borrowed @ 0% and "loaned" to the Treasury through T-Bills @ 2.5+% in 12-120 month laddered terms. The good news in that data? FRB doesn't dare raise the base interest rates while these run their course, since it would squeeze the Banks all over again.
Note the BANKS still have the majority of the cash injections, but have dropped about $110B of it in TWO MONTHS with no positive results. Don't worry about the Banks, though - they'll be fine no matter what they do next.
Note also only .5T is listed as "Borrowed" - the rest of the gift is PREFERRED STOCK, so it doesn't have to be listed as debt, just a "liability".
the money supply has went from 1.2 trillion to 1.6 trillion under Mr. Obama's watch. And since it is being handed to the banks, give it a multiplier of 10:1
There are three things that I can see happening:
1. Simple inflation 2. dollar collapse within the next 90 days and spiral into hyper inflation 3. Both of the choices may and probably will occur. Devaluation has already occurred in the now-factual doubling of the base currency, though its "formal" effect is staved off by fear in gov'ts outside our borders as well as inside our borders.
Can this trend go on for long (years) without effect? No
Do those who did it know the effect? Yes - the caving to the GS-built Treasury Chief(s) was a serious mistake, though "The Plan" was not the worst of the possible plans available. That "The Plan" was subterfuge is now historically factual - the REAL plan is now obvious and should be criminally prosecuted for its fraudulent and damaging realities. That won't happen.
Is/was there another way? Yes - GENTLY putting cash in the hands of the consumer and its employers would lessen the effect of a fiscal reset which HAD to happen once the Gov't forced Lenders to lend to those who simply could never repay. The Lenders took full advantage of the requirements, blowing a reduction in profit into a debacle of lost capital never before seen on earth. Pre-WWII Germany came close, but theirs was immediately inflationary without controls in place to stave off our outcome. By the way, Pre-WWII Germany was the BEST example of Keynesian Theory put in motion - it failed beyond belief in record time, bringing Germany to no other choice but expansive MILITARY budgets with the attendant military action to support the whole notion of fiscal expansion by Government spending (Keynes, pure and simple).
Essentially, we've now doubled base money (cash or its real equivalent), which will be multiplied/monetized at today's favored multiple - something like 30+ times. The effect on M2 and the now-unreported M3 will be pure disaster at some date in the future, but they'll stave off the damage as long as THEY NEED US AS CUSTOMERS - not a day beyond.
South America, India and Africa are being groomed for expansion at high speed. This will be a race to the finish line, we're in the lead as "economic serfs" by at least a neck, but losing ground fast against external nations chock-full of new customers for non-US goods.
USEFUL Hard assets and CASH - as always, these last longer than other "investments" in a true Depression. Gold is NOT a useful hard asset unless the bearer can escape to some place where it can be converted to useful currency. FDR knew that, his rendering of gold as ILLEGAL for personal ownership put the kibosh on all the "Hoarders" in June, 1933. History's clear, but few will even take the time to read it, fewer yet would believe that could happen again. NONE of those can say why they think it wouldn't happen, as they all have plans to flee with bags of gold, though they only hold CERTIFICATES which say they "own" some. That'll be darkly humorous if "The Real Crash" comes as it does - "Without Warning", though the bells ring for years prior to its arrival.
Other'n that, I don't know much about it.. I know this: This cannot continue for as long as most believe it might. The lag from action to effect in Government-driven fiscal policy is 9-18 months, can be "deferred" to 24 months at the most.
We're ticking past 10 today (from Oct 2008 - the first BLAST of capital into the vaults of Banks and NOT lent for productive economic support)...
In Q2, the ending cash was $2B against $118B in Deposits..
Banks should be awash in cash (the big ones are, but it's locked down), Suntrust is BLEEDING it at 50% erosion in a single quarter.
I actually thought Friday might be "The Day" for Suntrust, but I don't think Ms. Bair has the money to swallow one that size right now. There are worse smaller Banks by the ton, she seems to be "saving" them by selling them off to mid-sized outfits & taking the hit for the downside for the moment.
Balance Sheet (SCARY Stuff in Q2 vs Q1 Cash). Looks like they issued/sold $2B in stock in the last Qtr (Add'l Paid in Capital) and paid off $1B Preferred. They also reduced Performing Loans by $4B and paid down debt similarly (maturing notes, perhaps?). Of all the oddities, the CASH position is the most insane:
EOQ3 just a few days out now - national "pundits" already warning of its results, but money is steadily pouring into the stock markets in a reverse of the trend of just a week ago. This might be the first year Q3 takes priority over Q2 in the financial world.
While the rest of the world crashes, we are increasing in sales! This data is a courtesy of one of our Corp Sponsors. All of our Corp Sponsors can be found at http://www.swflreia.com/businessdirectory.html If you are an investor these are the people you should be doing business with. If you have a service to offer investors, you should be a Corp Sponsor of the SWFL REIA Lee County
Lee County SFR Sales August 2008: 710
Lee County SFR Sales August 2007: 424
Active listings Lee County 11567
We absorbed 6% of the Inventory
73 Percent Increase Month over Month in Sales
Lehigh Acres
Lehigh Acres August 2008: 124
Lehigh Acres August 2007: 61
Active Listings Lehigh Acres 2730
We absorbed 5% of the Inventory
103 percent increase Month over Month in Sales
Cape Coral
Cape Coral August 2008: 378
Cape Coral August 2007: 184
Active listings in Cape Coral 4293
We absorbed 9% of the Inventory
105% Increase Month over Month in Sales
Fort Myers
Fort Myers August 2008: 113
Fort Myers August 2007: 132
Active listings Fort Myers 2803
We absorbed 4% of the Inventory
Final Notes
Sales are up Year over Year.
Corp. Sellers still dominate the market.
Lehigh Acres seems to have found pricing desirable to buyers.
The high foreclosure areas are the leading edge of increasing sales due to the inventory available.
Short sales are still not prevalently closing
21 SFR closed in 2007
98 SFR closed in 2008
5407 Active Short Sale Listings Currently.
North Fort Myers seems to not be affected as much by Foreclosures. East of Slater road looks pretty much the same pre-2005.
Charts and Graphs will be posted later today in the Members section at http:www.swflreia.com Prepared by Cristina Tumbarello, Realtor she can be reached at cristina.tumbarello@yahoo.com
Update from the August data: 686 of the Lis Pendens filed had a homestead exemption present
Notes: · I was quoted heavily in the Media last month as to the one month drop in filings, the rest of the quote was let's wait till the end of Oct. 08 to call the trend based upon that drop. · What Happened to the Fannie and Freddie Lis Pendens filings? They have 2 each? I have double checked my work on this. If I have an error on this I will correct..... · We had an early month surge in per day filings with a drop off at the end of the month. · Deeds transferred dropped. Expect many of the open cases to be resolved as the Clerk of the Courts is streamlining the process. · The trend appears to have not abated. It has bounced up and down from month to month for the last year. · If you are looking for hope, the per diem filings trended down as the month went on. From the first two weeks, I was extrapolating a 2800 plus month in filings.
SWFL REIA members have access to a detailed report with counts, charts and graphs in the members section of the website For membership info Click Here
Complied and analyzed by: Jeff Tumbarello, Director, SWFL REIA Got questions? Email me. Need more info? You can hire us to perform studies like this at the objects of your choosing. Email me at jeff@swflreia.com
While the rest of the world crashes, we are increasing in sales! This data is a courtesy of one of our Corp Sponsors. All of our Corp Sponsors can be found at http://www.swflreia.com/businessdirectory.html If you are an investor these are the people you should be doing business with. If you have a service to offer investors, you should be a Corp Sponsor of the SWFL REIA Lee County
Lee County SFR Sales August 2008: 710
Lee County SFR Sales August 2007: 424
Active listings Lee County 11567
We absorbed 6% of the Inventory
73 Percent Increase Month over Month in Sales
Lehigh Acres
Lehigh Acres August 2008: 124
Lehigh Acres August 2007: 61
Active Listings Lehigh Acres 2730
We absorbed 5% of the Inventory
103 percent increase Month over Month in Sales
Cape Coral
Cape Coral August 2008: 378
Cape Coral August 2007: 184
Active listings in Cape Coral 4293
We absorbed 9% of the Inventory
105% Increase Month over Month in Sales
Fort Myers
Fort Myers August 2008: 113
Fort Myers August 2007: 132
Active listings Fort Myers 2803
We absorbed 4% of the Inventory
Final Notes
Sales are up Year over Year.
Corp. Sellers still dominate the market.
Lehigh Acres seems to have found pricing desirable to buyers.
The high foreclosure areas are the leading edge of increasing sales due to the inventory available.
Short sales are still not prevalently closing
21 SFR closed in 2007
98 SFR closed in 2008
5407 Active Short Sale Listings Currently.
North Fort Myers seems to not be affected as much by Foreclosures. East of Slater road looks pretty much the same pre-2005.
Charts and Graphs will be posted later today in the Members section at http:www.swflreia.com Prepared by Cristina Tumbarello, Realtor she can be reached at cristina.tumbarello@yahoo.com
On September 5, 2008, Silver State Bank, Henderson, NV was closed by the Nevada Financial Institutions Division and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) was named Receiver. No advance notice is given to the public when a financial institution is closed.
All insured non-brokered deposit accounts have been transferred to Nevada State Bank, Las Vegas, NV ("assuming institution") and will be available immediately. Nevada State Bank entered into a separate agreement to sell the Arizona branches of Silver State Bank to its affiliate National Bank of Arizona. On Monday, the former Silver State Bank locations will reopen as branches of Nevada State Bank in Nevada and as branches of National Bank of Arizona in Arizona.
The U.S. government's planned takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac came together hurriedly after advisers poring over the companies' books for the Treasury Department concluded that Freddie's accounting methods had overstated its capital cushion, according to regulatory officials briefed on the matter.
The proposal to place both mortgage giants, which own or back $5.3 trillion in mortgages, into a government-run conservatorship also grew out of deep concern among foreign investors that the companies' debt might not be repaid. **meaning we do not not want chinese to sell all those treasury nots because we allowed their money to get lost. I am told but have not verified that some pension funds are deep into Fannie and Freddie as well. JT **
The big question now is whether the U.S. government's move to take over Fannie and Freddie will restore investor confidence in the nation's credit markets, help stabilize the stock market and keep loans flowing to creditworthy borrowers.
Fannie and Freddie, by buying mortgages, provide American banks and other financial institutions with fresh money to make new loans, **(I thought they already had money, ours? :) **) a vital lubricant for the housing and credit markets.
Sept. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson decided to take control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac after a review found the beleaguered mortgage-finance companies used accounting methods that inflated their capital,**( Sheila Bair seems to be having the same issue, JT)** according to people with knowledge of the decision.
House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said in an interview yesterday. The government would make periodic capital injections by buying convertible preferred shares or warrants, ***meaning, we will be paid first if we can not save this thing***
Holders of the companies' common and preferred stock are ``very unlikely to come out of this at all happy,'' and the chief executive officers will be forced out, Frank said. Senior and subordinated debt holders will likely be protected, said other people who were briefed on the plan. ***they will wipe those people out to cover the losses, JT**
Why are we having all of these problems? These guys sold the income for fee's. Now they have to make up for the losses with a fractionalized reserve system in place. If you WERE a share holding in Fannie and Freddie, run along and enjoy the beating. Take note of what got you here.
Number of deeds conveyed by the clerk of the court via foreclosure action 1210 Number of Mortgage related Lis Pendens 2156 The trend is changing. The deeds being conveyed is starting to gain momentum. Notes Lis Pendens Filings • We had a reduction from July to August. The key to watch is the next 2 months • September is the last month of QTR 3. The Filings have showed a pattern of a month increase and a 2 month decrease followed by another increase. Another factor there might be pressure to show an improvement in QTR 4 for Year End numbers. • I would wait to pass judgment on the filings trending down until September and October are in books. • The homestead percentage from July was updated. The Lis Pendens filings where a homestead exception are trending down by percentage. One reason for this is the lenders willingness to work out a modification with HOMEOWNERS Notes Deeds Conveyed • The lenders taking back deeds this month are the primary drivers of REO sales within the Market • Expect more downward price pressure in high foreclosure markets where there is proportionately lower sales activity. IE Lehigh Acres • The count of deeds jumped dramatically. This is due to the court system streaming things a few months back. • The good news is the REO's are what the market wants. • More good news, some lenders are choosing to rent versus sell. • Hat tip to Charlie Green and his staff as well as the judicial side. There does not appear to be a staffing up from recent years. They are handling hugely exponentially growing work load SWFL REIA members have access to an 11 page report with detailed charts and graphs. This available thru our password protected member's pages on http://www.swflreia.com . You can also purchase the report for $19.99 if you are not a member. Email jeff@swflreia.com for more details or call 239 247 5061 For membership info Do you have more Questions? • You can email at jeff@swflreia.com • Or call 239 671 8248 • If you wish to have more in depth data and analyses, please email or call with your requirements to get a quote.
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