Jeff 's Blog

Why you should share Knowledge even when they dont get it

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 08:47:27 -0500

I sometimes feel like I am wasting time with some of the newer members of our chosen profession, but I remember my newer days and take a deep breath and help them as I was helped, here is why
the concept for the frustration is known as.....

neko ni koban - literally "gold coins to a cat" is an idiomatic Japanese proverb with the same meaning as "casting pearls before swine" (豚に真珠, which is a translation of "pearls before swine," is commonly used as well.)

SNIPPED synonyms

Perler for et svin Peerloer fur iet swine - Literally "Pearls for a swine", Danish and not so common expression. Basically means that you shouldn't do anything for people that they don't/might not appreciate.

The phrase pearls before swine itself has since become a common expression for putting things in front of people who don't appreciate their value, and there have been numerous uses of the title in popular culture; there is a Pearls Before Swine comic strip, a Pearls Before Swine psychedelic American folk band, and Pearls Before Swine is an alternate title for Kurt Vonnegut's novel God Bless You, Mr. Rosewater.

now that we have covered the obscure

While I've long understood the basis AND the frustration at its core, I also must recall my own swinish days on a personal basis and the core of THAT addiction while it lasted.

Knowing the difference by my defintion helps me continue to present my beliefs regardless of their relativity beyond my benefit/disadvantage.

Swine aren't necessarily ignorant, as they know their world well enough to survive to land at the butcher or predator's table. Pearls to swine haven't a shred of interest, as they won't hasten or delay the arrival at the unexpected but obvious-to-others "goal".

Now, since we ALL begin as swine, driven by instinct, swayed ONLY by education either forced or voluntarily accepted, whatever ratio of "left-behind" there are is a function of both systems of education on EACH individual's experience.

While all I might think I know is either valid or totally invalid, the differing outcomes are the effect of the WILLINGNESS on my part to present what I BELIEVE I know, then worry not at all if some or all don't subscribe to "my" way of making a path to wherever I believe "my" choice will take ME. It's the power of the INDIVIDUAL I protect most fervently, as that is the defining difference between the "goal" intended for us all and the better "goals" most desire, but few will sacrifice to achieve.

Pearls are cast, swine choose themselves in the "audience". CAST YOUR PEARLS on the basis of "knowledge hoarded is knowledge wasted", NOT for any other reason, and do NOT stop just because someone takes adversarial positions without due basis and valid PROOF of their pearl's validity. Where validity is found in adversarial positions which alter your outlook, YOU WIN THE PEARL by voluntary intake and future productive uses.

Other'n that, I have no knowledge of swine and their world, as I've done all possible to stay distant after gaining some distance through consumption of PEARLS thrown voluntarily in my path long ago (and recently as well).

Ben Franklin said something to the effect: "A Man who pours his treasure into his mind will NEVER be poor." He'd been a swine in his past, too, but broke the habit and did alright for himself thereafter.

I never discount opinions which are validated by facts presented (without "careful selection of fact") - it's where I gathered the useful PEARLS from in the majority, and it's how I divided the wheat from the chaff found littering life's path. All opinions have opportunity to be found incorrect in unknown futures, but SOME are wrong due to unseen change, others are simple errors from lack of due diligence - a common human trait of huge price, but absolutely NO value.

Be careful who you play with

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Thu, 01 Nov 2007 08:46:30 -0500

As to interest in RE's rewards/punishments on the broader scale of humanity.... Most in this biz never quite understand there are only THREE types of folks on this planet:

1. Real Estate Investors (lotsa playahs, few players). These folks know almost NOTHING else outside the effective data and trends of a VERY complex and fiscally/physically dangerous investment world. Failures are EXPECTED, survived, learned from, then recovered from if they are HOOKED on the biz for real. They're often poor, but seldom broke, as they save some portion of any success in reserve for the NEXT FAILURE, which will happen if they stay in the game long enough.

2. Non-RE/Fiscal-word-employed Homeowners drawn to second-property investment by GREED or by WANT, seldom by true NEED. These folks CAN be educated to succeed to some degree, but rare are those otherwise-careered folks able or truly willing to put in the time and effort to keep from stepping off a cliff in RE over a couple cycles. The hardest part of educating these folks is the BUY NOW part when prices are crashing, followed by the second-toughest part - SELL RIGHT NOW when the market's screaming insanely upward. Once they've missed either cycle ONCE, they too-often give up in disgust and settle in for a "normal" life of non-RE outcomes. Nothing wrong with these folks, but they can eat your time if you expect more interest and action than you'll get from the majority.

3. Those to whom YOUR daily stumbles/successes somehow become important to measure THEIR lives by. They'll never achieve, they'll drag down everyone around them over time and they'll likely die alone or live & die sordid lives while tied to someone EXACTLY like them.

Crossing the lines between the three with unrealistic expectations is a recipe for disaster, but a meal far too many have tried to enjoy in good times. The after-dinner celbratory gatherings can quickly turn into rope-fests, though all the playahs in the good times were EXPERTS 'til the cash-calls overcame the cash-on-hand. Then SOMEBODY has to hang, and the FIRST victim is generally the Suited Dude who "got me into this mess by controlling my mind".

Don't be him - INTERVIEW closely those who desire a seat at the table, ensure they can hang through tough times and have done so in the past without moaning. The end DOES justify the means if the valleys don't kill off the players before PAYDAY rolls around again as it always has..

Most amateur RE "expert investors" remind me of the 3rd week of a month in the Military. Those with money make LOTS of money by lending theirs to those who won't have any by FRIDAY next. Those who can't make a month's pay last a month HATE the others, but seldom speak ill of them 'til the hanging rope is over the limb when payday won't cover the loans from last week.

Don't be him, either I've been both, but not in recent times, nor EVER in the RE/Mtg periods of life.

we have estimated that $500 million has been generated within the top 50k blogs in 2006.

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 19:26:06 -0500

These guys are making Millions blogging! How much have we made????? LOL

http://chitika.com/blog/?p=253

Chitika has taken the first step to estimate the revenue in the blogosphere. In our Blog Dollars Study we have estimated that $500 million has been generated within the top 50k blogs in 2006.

Jump in on the active discussion now on TechCrunch, your feedback is highly encouraged!

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Am I an investor or speculator?

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 17:29:50 -0500

Am I an investor or speculator?
The path to wealth comes down to doing the right thing for the right reasons. The first question to ask yourself. Am I an investor or speculator? You should never be a speculator.
There are two times not to speculate. When you can afford to and when you can't.
Speculation is gambling pure and simple. Cognizant Real Estate Investors use competent analysis to take the speculation out of the deal. You should invest with a margin of safety. The key to this is knowing what questions to ask. This is a very detail oriented game. By not asking the right question's you put yourself at risk. Thorough due diligence is the order of the day.
Emotion is your enemy. Logic and numbers are your best friend. When ever, I get excited about a deal. I take a step back. Emotion will cause you to out step your business plan causing you to fail. The market is driven by 2 basic emotions Pessimism and Optimism. More on that later.
By speculation you put yourself and your investment at risk. The Foreclosure wave of 2006 and 2007 are a result of over speculation and bad market timing. These people will live to fight another day, no matter how bad is seems during the process.
Real world example here: Two very successful investors in South West Florida. Bought a house. Got a great deal. They should have called the county to check for code violations. Turns out the house was scheduled for demolition. In the end they bought a really expensive lot in a bad neiborhood. Always check with code enforcement.
I recently made a mistake of calling the wrong code enforcement agency. Got a clean bill of health. Bought the house. We got tied up for 6 months with code violations. We bought the house with a clear exit. We had a signed contract for the resale. The code violations slowed the rehab down so much we had to scrap that exit. Once we are done rebuilding the house, we will see what the market has for us. Should have read the bottom of the tax bill better!
Here is a short list of questions to ask
1. Are there open code liens
2. Does the owner have clear title to sell
3. Is this property going to be insurable
4. Is the property able to obtain conventional financing
5. Is the market, stable? Declining? Upward trending?
6. Am I competing with production builders for buyers?
7. Do I have an accurate walk thru inspection with proper rehab estimates?
8. If the house is in foreclosure, is there a sale date set?
9. How much is this house worth? Really Worth? In some markets sellers are forced to give concessions to sell the house. These concessions are built into the purchase price. Subtract these from the purchase price to find the "true" price. Do not be fooled into thinking that 70,000 sale was a true sale. That investor could have netted 60,000 after closing costs and down payment assistance. 10,000 might be your projected profit. In that case you got out of bed for the knowledge. Knowledge is great, profits are better. Check your comps. Sellers and agents will try and provide you with comps to help you make the choice. Get a second opinion. Love everyone, trust no one.
10. What is the average "days on the market" (DOM) for this property? Always factor in holding time.
11. Last but not least what is my exit? What are you going to do with it? In the good old days we just bought houses. We would then figure out what to do with them. Please don't do this. Walk in the closing table, with a primary exit, and if that does not work this is what I will do.
When it comes to question asking, ask people who do not expect to profit from your purchase. Never ask the barber if you need a haircut. Unless you are planning on getting one.
Every Investor should have a "Power Team". This should consist of a Real Estate Agent, Mortgage Banker and a Mortgage Broker (they live in different worlds, trust me I have been both), Appraiser, Title Company, Home Inspector with Contracting experience, Insurance agent, attorney, CPA and last but not least handyman/General Contractor. These peoples job is to save you from yourself!

Real estate investing has been made very complicated

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 17:28:33 -0500

Real estate investing has been made very complicated. People have done this to sell information products. I am not knocking information products. They have helped me along the way. Never has any one product held the path to wealth. Really and truly, real estate investing is a game; some people play the game better than others. The key to success is actually playing the game. If you do not have a team on the field. You will never get a chance to score.

Here is the whole game in a nutshell. Buy Low, sell high, and spend less money that you make! There you have it now go forth in the world and get rich. Remember your humble benefactor in the end. Investing techniques can be quite complicated. The basic concept is real simple. Every deal should pass the test. I thing you should grasp the basic concepts of investing and trust the nuances to skilled educated people if possible. The right attorney, CPA, Appraiser and/or Real Estate Agent are worth their weight in gold. Problem is most people go to the expert looking for them to confirm what they already think. I have had to go back to the advisors with the "I know ,you were right, I was wrong ,now get me out of this mess". Humble will be often served to you learn to listen to the right people.

Here is a word people seldom use in real estate. Intrinsic.

Intrinsic describes a characteristic or property of some thing or action which is essential and specific to that thing or action, and which is wholly independent of any other object, action or consequence. A characteristic which is not essential or inherent is extrinsic.

to apply this into RE
you should buy cash flowing properties, even if thats not the exit, what if the exit goes away?
why would you buy a property for 280,000 that rents for 1200 a month,
I seen hundreds do this, they thought, due to the misleading of the service providers, that the real estate market was an endless gravy train
so in the end you have negitive cash flow
why would you take the chance of buying that?

See if your deal fits into that word. At the height of the Real Estate Mania in Florida. North Cape Coral Houses were selling for 280,000.00. These same houses rented for 1200.00 a month. Not a very good investment. These prices were driven by speculation, pure and simple. Speculators work of the greater fool theory. You buy something assuming the greater fool will show up and write you a check for your basis plus a nice profit. It happens, that happened a lot in 2004 thru 2006 in American Real Estate. The key is not to be the last speculator. He is the one holding the bag. Not a fun place to be.
An example. I bought a house from a friend. It was rented to a non-profit company. The rent was 1650 a month. The payment was about 800 a month. Pretty good rental! One night, one of the tenants fell asleep with a cigarette in hand. The house caught fire and burnt down. No one was hurt. With the way the Fl market is and was. The replacement to build was quite high. I had the property insured to 152,000. I owed 96,000. So after the positive cash flow of 12 months. I got a check for 56,000 thousand dollars. By having a chip I the game I was in a position for something to happen.

Defaults Causing Liquidity Issues

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 17:25:33 -0500

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7c453090-7ff7-11dc-b075-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Quote:
Poor quarterly results from banks across the US over the past two weeks suggest credit problems once confined to high-risk mortgage borrowers are spreading across the consumer landscape, posing new risks to the economy and weighing heavily on the markets.

US banks have raised reserves for loan losses by at least $6bn over the second quarter and by even larger amounts from last year, indicating financial executives believe consumers will be increasingly unable to make payments on a variety of loans.

Banks are adding to reserves not just for defaults on mortgages, but also on home equity loans, car loans and credit cards.

"What started out merely as a subprime problem has expanded more broadly in the mortgage space and problems are getting worse at a faster pace than many had expected," said Michael Mayo, Deutsche Bank analyst.

as people default they let it all go

its will be a great time to buy cheap assets
here is the troubling part
Quote:
"There has been a fast sea-change in thinking," said Rick Klingman, interest rate trader at BNP Paribas. "Stocks are showing some real concern about bank earnings and there are worries about credit in general."

I think these guys send out warning shots before the it hits the fan or maybe just the smart investors know the right signs and jump
but I think this is a sign

Trying to plug a hole in a dam that is about to break is always a fruitless activity.

Increased reserves were mandated after the S&L crash. It was still pennies against dollars loaned
_________________
Jeff Tumbarello

H. G. Wells - "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."

what side of the compound interest equation are you

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 17:20:54 -0500

this is the aftermath of a mania, emotionally. We have went from euphoria, optimism and a positive view of risk. To socially and fiscally conservative as the backlash to the previous times. Everyone views anyone as a snake oil salesman. In this type of social mood. Distrust, fear and such. The funny part these are the same people everyone was hinging on their every word during the mania.

The problem 90 percent of the world faces is they want luxury items and for people to view them as successful. They just choose not to do the things to make this happen. So they artificially do it with debt. Which once you go down that road its hard to go back. That's why the people pushing the speculation type RE Deals did so well. People feel they deserve free money. I know many people who looked at these deals as a way of getting out of debt. Now its financial Armageddon for them.

The level of Leverage in relation to Level of savings in this Country scare me a bit right now. My 3 children have more in savings than most people I know. We only allow them to spend half of their birthday money and other funds they get, the other half goes in the Bank.

The basic principal my grandfather taught me is that one thing defines who you are and where you are in society!

what side of the compound interest equation are you, giving or receiving?

Some Thoughts On RE Investing

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 17:18:38 -0500

The Goal: J Paul Getty - "If you can count your money, you don't have a billion dollars."

The Method: Vince Lombardi - "The price of success is hard work, dedication to the job at hand, and the determination that whether we win or lose, we have applied the best of ourselves to the task at hand."

 The Secret to Success is inside yourself.

 Become a Critical thinker

 Do not take Facts on "Faith"

 Develop Discipline and Courage

Real Estate is not a Commodity Trading or

A Get Rich Quick Scheme

It's a business

You are choosing to be in the business of Real Estate Investing

First take stock in what tools you have to offer

1. Cash

2. Credit

3. Time

4. Know how

Find what you do not have, network, network and network some more, here, at a reia meeting, in the gym, everywhere you go

Note-if you drawn to RE Investing due to trying to get your income on par with your spending habits, think again, 2 wise men once said

Charles A. Jaffe - "It's not your salary that makes you rich, it's your spending habits."

Edward Gibbon - "I am indeed rich, since my income is superior to my expense, and my expense is equal to my wishes."

It boils down to

Buy low and sell high~~or cash flow high

And last but not least do not spend all the money

Next Decide who you are and what you will do

The best way to start is to take your own house ( that you own, if you are renting , your own house is the best place to start) draw a circle that is 10 minutes driving distance from that point

Map every

1. FSBO

2. Foreclosure

3. Realtor Listing

4. Find who the top agents are in that market, get to know them

5. SALES!!!

6. Expired MLS listings

7. Other investors working your market, run then thru public records, steal their great idea's ignore the bad ones, they will probably not know they are bad idea's though, if they are successful bird do for them

8. Run down houses

9. Probates

10. Krispy Kreme Donuts~~ you have to compile data somewhere?

Once you are an expert on that market make sure you factored in the below tenets

The three phases of RE DEALS

1. Acquisition

2. Holding

3. Disposition

Account for all pitfalls related to the above

And Based upon the 4 tools decide to wholesale, retail, buy and rent, buy fix and rent

DON'T spend the grocery money! Invest what you can afford to lose

Next and most Important, become a critical thinker

No Matter how careful you are. You can not Eliminate Risk

An Intelligent RE Investor Insists upon a

" Margin Of Safety"

Do Not over pay.

No matter how exciting the Investment is

OR the PERSON selling it to you is.

Investors

Thru sound Analysis Investors acquire undervalued assets. Investors then return the asset to its true value. This is done thru thorough analysis that promises "Safety of Principal" and an adequate return.

Speculators:

Operations not meeting these requirements are speculating, Speculating is gambling

A lot of Speculators in 2004 thru 2006, Bought at market value with the expectations that market value would still rise

Many are still holding the bag

The Two Times You should not Speculate

1. When you can not afford to

2. When you can afford

With that said now on to the right mindset

The empirical method is generally characterized by the collection of a large amount of data before much speculation as to their significance, or without much idea of what to expect, and is to be contrasted with more theoretical methods in which the collection of empirical data is guided largely by preliminary theoretical exploration of what to expect. The empirical method is necessary in entering hitherto completely unexplored fields, and becomes less purely empirical as the acquired mastery of the field increases. Successful use of an exclusively empirical method demands a higher degree of intuitive ability in the practitioner.[1]

Use this idea above to combat

Another wise man said

Will Rogers - "An economist's guess is liable to be as good as anybody else's."

In psychology and cognitive science, confirmation bias is a tendency to search for or interpret new information in a way that confirms one's preconceptions and avoid information and interpretations which contradict prior beliefs. It is a type of cognitive bias and represents an error of inductive inference, or as a form of selection bias toward confirmation of the hypothesis under study or disconfirmation of an alternative hypothesis.

Confirmation bias is an area of interest in the teaching of critical thinking as the skill is misused if rigorous critical scrutiny is applied only to evidence challenging a preconceived idea but not to evidence supporting the same preconception.[1]

We tend to cripple ourselves with" what we think we know" instead of what the market is telling us

Go forth and Get "Rich":

If this helped

I Want Half!

Make the checks payable to a LLC I have "cash":

I leave you with

Henry David Thoreau - "Dreams are the touchstones of our character."

Eleanor Roosevelt - "The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams."

H. G. Wells - "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."

Jeff Tumbarello is a Real Estate Investor, Speaker and Loan Originator with Union Savings Bank. In 2003 Jeff and 3 other SWFL RE Investors Founded the South West Florida Real Estate Investment Assoc. This now has over 400 members. He has materially participated in rental properties, waterfront spec homes and buy & flip transactions. Jeff has originated over 1,000 mortgage loans. Jeff is also veteran of the USMC and served in Dessert Shield and Dessert Storm as an Infantryman with First Battalion Third Marines. Jeff is from Stuart Florida. Jeff is married to Cristina and has 3 children ages 10, 8 and 6. Jeff is currently working with Union Savings Bank and buying cash flow properties in Central Ohio. Jeff is available for speaking engagements about Union Savings Bank Products, Real Estate Investing and Marketing for Real Estate Pro's and investors

for more info Email jtumbarello@usavingsbank.com

Guess who is Bailing out CFC? We ARE!

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Tue, 23 Oct 2007 17:08:31 -0500

At first glance you would think they are doing something to help, they are dumping their bad paper on the GSA's

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=agNUe.4oR6mc&refer=worldwide

Quote:

Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Countrywide Financial Corp., the biggest U.S. mortgage lender, will make it easier for customers to keep their homes by changing the terms on $16 billion of adjustable-rate mortgages.

About 52,000 customers with subprime loans can refinance into prime or government-backed mortgages through next year, the Calabasas, California-based company said today in a statement. Such loans usually have lower rates. Another 30,000 who may miss payments, or are already late, will get more affordable terms

.

This is a drop in the bucket, look at the numbers

Quote:

``Countrywide's announcement to modify some loans is a welcome, if late, decision,'' Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd said in a statement. ``However, this problem reaches far beyond the 82,000 borrowers they have agreed to assist.''

About 100,000 U.S. subprime mortgages per month will reset to higher rates for the first time during the next two years, according to analysts at UBS AG.

Thank You! Mrs Tavakoli, the truth shall set us free

Quote:

Countrywide's program shifts shaky loans to the public sector by transferring mortgages to government-backed lenders such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, said Janet Tavakoli, president of Tavakoli Structured Finance Inc., a Chicago consulting firm.
``I don't see why Fannie and Freddie are bailing out Countrywide, which needs to own up to the magnitude of the problem,'' Tavakoli said. ``None of us wants to see disaster in the housing market, but these losses should be pushed back to investors and those who are holding the mortgages.''

If we stole like this on a local level, the boys would come calling with a warrant
_________________
Jeff Tumbarello

H. G. Wells - "Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe."

I think emotion has more to do with Real Estate than supply and demand ever will

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 12:07:37 -0500

I think emotion has more to do with Real Estate than supply and demand ever will
in 2005 we were buying houses when we should not have been
in 2007 we should be buying houses and we are not why is that....Socioeconomics
I quote
Socioeconomics typically analyze both the social impacts of economic activity and economic impacts of social activity. In many cases, however, socioeconomists focus on the social impact of some sort of economic change. Such changes might include a closing factory, market manipulation, the signing of international trade treaties, new natural gas regulation, etc. Such social effects can be wide-ranging in size, anywhere from local effects on a small community to changes to an entire society.

many times we fool ourselves with numbers, Gaussian "bell curve type" number models were used to predict, the market to keep rolling in 2005

Guess what it did not happen
why...
a change ion the social mood
in 2005 risk was the catch word, now its fear
pop culture has a lot to do with this, they also feed these trends, look at the movies and music
Dark and scary right now, because....that's what we want
we need to stop blaming the "flippers" agents, mortgage broker, builders, its more the times that caught up, than misdeeds
There were plenty of misdeeds to go around though

More quotes of wisdom
Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance because they do not believe in the possibility of predicting future financial prices. The efficient market theory suggests that financial prices often exhibit random walk behavior and thus can not be predicted with consistency. Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it often remains difficult, if not impossible, to pre-determine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance can often become much cheaper afterwards before either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.

some more to ponder
In finance, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects. Professor Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business developed EMH as an academic concept of study through his published Ph.D. thesis in the early 1960s at the same school.
The efficient market hypothesis states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.

funny part about most of these quotes, these schools of thought. They come from outside the business world
Those than can do, those that can't teach

Harvey McKay's three secrets to success

1. Never give up!

2. Never give up!

3. Never give up!

See, I've got positive input on this subject!

I think emotion has more to do with Real Estate than supply and demand ever will

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 11:48:00 -0500

I think emotion has more to do with Real Estate than supply and demand ever will

in 2005 we were buying houses when we should not have been

in 2007 we should be buying houses and we are not why is that....Socioeconomics

I quote

Socioeconomics typically analyze both the social impacts of economic activity and economic impacts of social activity. In many cases, however, socioeconomists focus on the social impact of some sort of economic change. Such changes might include a closing factory, market manipulation, the signing of international trade treaties, new natural gas regulation, etc. Such social effects can be wide-ranging in size, anywhere from local effects on a small community to changes to an entire society.

many times we fool ourselves with numbers, Gaussian "bell curve type" number models were used to predict, the market to keep rolling in 2005

Guess what it did not happen

why...

a change ion the social mood

in 2005 risk was the catch word, now its fear

pop culture has a lot to do with this, they also feed these trends, look at the movies and music

Dark and scary right now, because....that's what we want

we need to stop blaming the "flippers" agents, mortgage broker, builders, its more the times that caught up, than misdeeds

There were plenty of misdeeds to go around though

More quotes of wisdom

Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance because they do not believe in the possibility of predicting future financial prices. The efficient market theory suggests that financial prices often exhibit random walk behavior and thus can not be predicted with consistency. Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it often remains difficult, if not impossible, to pre-determine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance can often become much cheaper afterwards before either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.

some more to ponder

In finance, the efficient market hypothesis (EMH) asserts that financial markets are "informationally efficient", or that prices on traded assets, e.g., stocks, bonds, or property, already reflect all known information and therefore are unbiased in the sense that they reflect the collective beliefs of all investors about future prospects. Professor Eugene Fama at the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business developed EMH as an academic concept of study through his published Ph.D. thesis in the early 1960s at the same school.

The efficient market hypothesis states that it is not possible to consistently outperform the market by using any information that the market already knows, except through luck. Information or news in the EMH is defined as anything that may affect prices that is unknowable in the present and thus appears randomly in the future.

funny part about most of these quotes, these schools of thought. They come from outside the business world

Those than can do, those that can't teach

in the end I leave you with

Harvey McKay's three secrets to success

1. Never give up!

2. Never give up!

3. Never give up!

MAKE IT A GREAT DAY

Market Timing for 90 percent of us is Jibberish

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 10 Oct 2007 11:28:29 -0500

its a great time to buy a house you want to live in, they should buy the best house, that they cant not live without, that they an afford

timing the market is jibberish

a few local Gov. officials are asking me to share "my" data,Its much better than anything presented to them, I still have no idea, I have some thoughts, no clear idea

the greatest "quants" in the world cant do that

I have no problem with the above post as long as its and end user

Trying to speculate in this kind of market is like grabbing nickels from in front of the steam roller

Market timing is the strategy of making buy or sell decisions of financial assets (often stocks) by attempting to predict future market price movements. The prediction may be based on an outlook of market or economic conditions resulting from technical or fundamental analysis. This is an investment strategy based on the outlook for an aggregate market, rather than for a particular financial asset.

I leave you with

Whether market timing is ever a viable investment strategy is controversial. Some may consider market timing to be a form of gambling based on pure chance because they do not believe in the possibility of predicting future financial prices. The efficient market theory suggests that financial prices often exhibit random walk behavior and thus can not be predicted with consistency. Some consider market timing to be sensible in certain situations, such as an apparent bubble. However, because the economy is a complex system that contains many factors, even at times of significant market optimism or pessimism, it often remains difficult, if not impossible, to pre-determine the local maximum or minimum of future prices with any precision; a so-called bubble can last for many years before prices collapse. Likewise, a crash can persist for extended periods; stocks that appear to be "cheap" at a glance can often become much cheaper afterwards before either rebounding at some time in the future or heading toward bankruptcy.

hopefully this is not neko ni koban, bandar kya jaane adrak ka swad, "eşek hoşaftan ne anlar.." , duì niú tán qín , lol

FHA down payment update. This is important updated news!

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 13:48:20 -0500

Good Afternoon!

FHA down payment update. This is important updated news!

Effective October 31, 2007, HUD will prohibit the use or downpayment assistance programs that, in whole or in part, consists of funds provided by any of the following parties before, during, or after closing of the property sale: the seller, or any other person or entity that financially benefits from the transaction; or any third party or entity that is reimbursed directly or indirectly by the seller, or any other person or entity that financially benefits from the transaction. All down payment seller assisted programs except for Nehemiah apply to this ruling.

Additional notice on effective date: The effective date of this rule is October 31, 2007 . Therefore, in order for the HomeBuyer to use a gift that was derived from the seller, the HomeBuyer must have entered into a contract of sale (including any amendments to purchase price and said contract must be fully executed, i.e. offer and acceptance before that date.

Due to a settlement agreement entered into between the Nehemiah Progressive Housing Development Corporation and HUD in April 1998, resolving litigation between the two parties, the Nehemiah Program will be permitted until March 31, 2008.

Jeff Tumbarello
Union Savings Bank
jtumbarello@usavingsbank.com
614 849 2214

who are you?

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 09:17:55 -0500

I have been taught the following, my grandfather was big on this phrase

1. Common people talk about other people

2. Normal people talk about things

3. Great People talk about idea's

I guess I forgot sharks sell all the time!

where do you fit in? where do you want to fit in?

I believe this has something to do with the "law of attraction", this has been around for years, recently was bundled up with a little mysticism and a Australian Voice to form the secret, its been around for ever though, the old adage " birds of feather flock together" still rings true

The Americans with No Abilities Act (AWNAA) is being hailed as a major legislation

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Thu, 04 Oct 2007 09:12:46 -0500

WASHINGTON, DC - Congress is considering sweeping legislation, which provides new benefits for many Americans. The Americans with No Abilities Act (AWNAA) is being hailed as a major legislation by advocates of the millions of Americans who lack any real skills or ambition.

"Roughly 50 percent of Americans do not possess the competence and drive necessary to carve out a meaningful role for themselves in society,"
said Barbara Boxer. "We can no longer stand by and allow People of Inability to be ridiculed and passed over. With this legislation, employers will no longer be able to grant special favors to a small group of workers, simply because they do a better job, or have some idea of what they are doing."

The President pointed to the success of the US Postal Service, which has a long-standing policy of providing opportunity without regard to performance. Approximately 74 percent of postal employees lack job skills, making this agency the single largest US employer of Persons of Inability. The DMV also has a great record of hiring Persons of Inability (63%).

Private sector industries with good records of nondiscrimination against the Inept include retail sales (72%), the airline industry (68%), and home improvement "warehouse" stores (65%)

Under the Americans with No Abilities Act, more than 25 million "middle man"
positions will be created, with important-sounding titles but little real responsibility, thus providing an illusory sense of purpose and performance. Mandatory non-performance-based raises and promotions will be given, to guarantee upward mobility for even the most unremarkable employees. The legislation provides substantial tax breaks to corporations which maintain a significant level of Persons of Inability in middle positions, and gives a tax credit to small and medium businesses that agree to hire one clueless worker for every two talented hires.

Finally, the AWNA ACT contains tough new measures to make it more difficult to discriminate against the Non-abled, banning discriminatory interview questions such as, "Do you have any goals for the future?" or "Do you have any skills or experience which relate to this job?"

"As a Non-abled person, I can't be expected to keep up with people who have something going for them," said Mary Lou Gertz,
who lost her position as a lug-nut twister at the GM plant in Flint, MI due to her lack of notable job skills. "This new law should really help people like me." With the passage of this bill, Gertz and millions of other untalented citizens can finally see a light at the end of the tunnel. Said Senator Ted Kennedy; "It is our duty as lawmakers to provide each and every American citizen, regardless of his or her adequacy, with some sort of space to take up in this great nation. This is an issue I have long sought to exemplify and have dedicated my life to leading by example."

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:26:12 -0500

Enjoy the days - make of them what is allowed, play as hard as you work, don't forget to DO WHAT YOU WANT TO before it's too late even if you could later do it. Old folks who have money and no memories are pretty boring company, so that should NEVER be a goal.

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world, if only by a fraction. My "Heroes" wear the Unform of the USA, my mentors have been those whose lives have changed the world for the better. Be they good teachers, great Doctors, hard-working scientists, engineers, realtors, lenders, store owners, single Moms/Dads, if their lives somehow improved theirs AND others', I listen carefully to all they have to say.

Sua Sponte

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:25:56 -0500

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:25:47 -0500

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:25:37 -0500

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 16:25:28 -0500

Keep Your clients Informed......

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Wed, 03 Oct 2007 15:44:02 -0500

Keep Your clients Informed......
What Every Mortgage Applicant Should Know

1.   Thou shall not change jobs, become self-employed or quit your job.

2.   Thou shall not buy a car, truck or van (or you may be living in it.)

3.   Thou shall not use charge cards excessively or let your accounts fall behind.

4.   Thou shall not spend money you have set aside for closing.

5.   Thou shall not omit debts or liabilities from your loan application.

6.   Thou shall not buy furniture.

7.   Thou shall not originate any inquiries into your credit.

8.   Thou shall not make large deposits without first checking with your loan officer.

9.   Thou shall not change bank accounts.

10. Thou shall not co-sign on a loan for anyone.

For additional information, contact:

Jeff Tumbarello

Residential & Commercial Lending
614 849 2241

jtumbarello@usavingsbank.com

Who I am doesn't matter - it's who we BECOME that might one day improve the world

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 17:19:04 -0500

.50 percent rate cut, what did we get?

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Fri, 28 Sep 2007 12:13:01 -0500

.50 percent rate cut, what did we get?

Inquiring minds might be wondering what's changed since the 50 basis point cut by the Fed.

List of What's Changed

Perception has changed.
Any perception of the Fed as being concerned about inflation went out the window.
Any perception of the Fed as being concerned about the dollar went out the window.
Bulls are the happiest they have been in months.
The stock market is higher.
Gold is higher.
Oil is higher.
The Prime Rate dropped 50 basis points.

That's really about it. But what was the reason for the panic cut? Asset backed securities received no bids, the commercial paper market was in the dumps, and this all started with a mess in subprime mortgages that spread to mortgages in general, and foreclosures are now soaring. The jobs market is also very weak with huge mass layoffs by financial organizations.

List of What Hasn't Changed

Mortgage Rates. (Actually mortgage rates rose since last week as the chart below shows).
Auto Loan Rates. Nearly identical to last week.
Home Equity Loan Rates. Nearly identical to last week.
The outlook for jobs. (If anything the outlook is weaker judging from the Fed's panic.)
Credit Card Interest Rates.
The foreclosures outlook did not change. It is still bleak.

So did that 50 basis point cut help anyone? Yes, it helped (temporarily) those in the stock market. It helped (again temporarily) bail out Bernanke's banking buddies by providing more short term liquidity. It helped those short the dollar and long gold.

But did it do anything to address cash strapped consumers in way over their heads in houses they cannot afford? The answer to that is no.

After Greenspan joined Al Jazeera in his "it's about the OIL" statement,

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 17:51:22 -0500

After Greenspan joined Al Jazeera in his "it's about the OIL" statement, I just HAD to find out what might drive such a statement after complete SILENCE while the effort got underway...

Now, some linkage has to be utilized for this "conspiracy", but here goes:

Snippets from Wikipedia, but there are lots of resources otherwise:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alan_Greenspan#Greenspan_and_the_housing_bubble

"Career after the Fed
Greenspan now works as a private advisor making speeches and providing consulting for firms through his company, Greenspan Associates LLC. On May 16th 2007, Greenspan was hired as a special consultant by PIMCO and he will participate in Pimco's quarterly economic forums and speak privately with the bond manager about Fed interest rate policy."

Hmmmm - I just cannot remember Mr. Chairman warning of the recession while he was CREATING IT, but that's the MO I recall from the past :

"On February 26, 2007, Greenspan forecast a possible recession in the U.S. before or in early 2008.[41] Stabilizing corporate profits are said to have influenced his comments. The following day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 12,216.24 dropping by 416 points and losing 3.3% of its value, the worst one day loss since September 17, 2001, when the Dow Jones lost 684 points "

Now, PIMCO (owned by Allianz, a German Insurance Co) announces:
http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/HomePageAnnouncements/Mohamed+El-Erian+to+Rejoin+Firm.htm

El-Erian? Whozat? Why, the guy whose whole life began when he "rose through the ranks" at the IMF, of course. He just left Hahvahd's Fund Management after a whole 2 years of hedge fund/sub-prime debacles/OIL investments, etc. with decent results (wait for it - it'll come out AFTER he's clear). He's returning "home" to PIMCO to join many of his brethren in the fight for whichever side he's on. Mr. El-Erian consults to the Arab Banker Assn often - he's a HERO there, for good and known reasons.

It's about the OIL in the USA, Mr. Chairman? Although his book is in print, no corrections scheduled, he's publicly stated he was "misunderstood" though those and many other words are as clear as words can be. It's not all about the OIL to the USA, Mr. Chairman, but it's sure all about MONEY to Al and his minions, THEIR money, not ours. Nor is it about the future of OUR Nation in which he found fortune and fame. Loyalty to THIS Nation hasn't been in Mr. Chairman's goal set for decades now. As time flies on, I doubt his words bore inner iron even during the times when I respected Mr. Chairman for his loud and vehement calls for sanity in the Fed (before getting the job himself, of course).

Just review the FFR graphs from the moment he took the reins to the moment he handed them over - the evidence is there for all to see. Knee-jerk after knee-jerk does NOT create a trusted and balanced growth pattern, but that's Al's legacy, his book can't change the record except for those who will not know the truth. When FORCED to lower rates to sustainable levels, he did so to keep his job, but when any lame duck non-socialist is coming to the end of a term or likely to be next to the Presidency, WATCH OUT for Mr. Chairman and his world-view directions.

I believe Bonds of all sorts will suddenly find favor, and soon. Mr. Chairman has joined the enemy-within once again, because, to him, it's all about the OIL(money), you know. El-Erian will be interesting to watch as he returns "home" to PIMCO with Mr. Chairman firmly within his grasp. Note that nowhere on PIMCO's site will you find the news of Mr. Greenspan's alliance - not an accident nor a coincidence. Mr. Jamil Baz joined PIMCO last spring - a derivatives "expert" from Hahvad hissownself.

Enjoy the day - clarity of purpose has a way of becoming easier as time moves along. Stack your cash, diversify in Bank choices - the ride's getting more interesting by the day.

PS: There's no such thing as a conspiracy, so one shouldn't consider such laughable ideas seriously. There's no Mafia, either, but most capitalize the word for some reason or other

With Liquidity gone from the mortgage market

Jeff Tumbarello (Public Trust Mortagge Corp) — Thu, 27 Sep 2007 13:28:55 -0500

With Liquidity gone from the mortgage market, we will have to use our minds to get deals done, I ofer a little morsel below to start the thinking

Seller financing can refer to one of two things:

The seller can act as a bank and rather than receiving all or a portion of their equity at close, they can "lend" it to the buyer and receive a regular payment as agreed. They may receive no payments, interest only payments, principal only payments, or a combination. It could be an interest only loan, or an amortized loan. Additionally it could carry either a fixed rate interest payment or a variable rate. These will vary depending on the agreed upon terms of the contract between the buyer and the seller.
The seller can allow the buyer to "take over" the loan that he or she has in place. This can be done in two ways. The first way is called an "assumption", wherein the lender formally allows the buyer to assume the loan. This entails approval of the buyer's credit, and often a modification of existing loan terms. The other method is called a "subject to" where the lender is not contacted, and the buyer purchases the property "subject to" the existing financing. This can be financially risky in many ways, since many loans have acceleration clauses which permit the lender to call the loan due if the property is transferred. However, more often than not the lender will not exercise the "due on sale clause" if the payments are being made on the underlying mortgage(s). In the rare event that a lender does call the loan due then an investor could quickly sell the property or pay off the loan using any one of the various financing options available, some of which are described below.