Yesterday, several mortgage lenders issued three separate "rate sheets" in response to the changing mortgage market. 

It was the fourth time in the last 6 trading days that mortgage lenders issued multiple rate sheets in a day, and continued the trend that started in mid-January.

The yo-yo nature of mortgage rates underscores the importance of making mortgage rate comparisons within a limited time frame. 

Multiple quotes should be gathered with an hour of each other and, even then, it's prudent to ask your lender: "Has there been a mortgage rate reprice in the last hour?"

The current market volatility is in contrast to the "normal" environment of one-rate-sheet-per-day to which mortgage rate shoppers have been accustomed.  But with the changing economy, we all have to adapt.

Mortgage rate quotes from this morning won't necessarily be valid this afternoon so if you're in the market for a home loan, be sure to do your shopping in a limited timeframe and don't forget to ask about the reprice.

(Image courtesy: City of Peterborough)

 

Overall, getting a mortgage approval from a bank is more difficult than in months past and the tightening trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of the credit cycle.

Four times annually, the Federal Reserve surveys 84 different banks about general banking conditions.

One of the survey questions asks about current mortgage lending standards and whether they are loosening or tightening.

The chart at right is from the April 2008 survey and it illustrates what we already know: It's getting tougher and tougher to get approved for a home loan.

Some of the areas in which mortgage guidelines are tightening are well-known:

  • More thorough income documentation
  • Higher credit score requirements
  • More "money in the bank" post-closing

Some areas are less well-known:

  • More scrutiny of prior delinquencies
  • Strict review of appraised values

Overall, getting a mortgage approval from a bank is more difficult than in months past and the tightening trend is expected to continue throughout the rest of the credit cycle.

No "class" of buyers is immune, either -- not even the "prime" ones.

Home prices may fall going forward but stricter mortgage guidelines means that fewer home buyers will be able to take advantage.  If you're unsure about your credit profile, check with your loan officer to see how additional restrictions could impact your ability to purchase (and finance!) a home.

(Image courtesy: Federal Reserve)

 

 

Free credit reports are useful for identifying identity theft and reviewing active accounts but do very little to help a potential creditor gauge your creditworthiness

The ubiquity of "free" credit reporting services like FreeCreditReport.com, TrueCredit.com, and AnnualCreditReport.com have helped breed a new generation of credit-aware Americans.

Because credit ratings have more importance to everyday life than in years past, this is a welcome development.  For example:

  • Lenders use credit ratings to determine borrowing rates
  • Insurers use credit ratings to determine premiums
  • Employers use credit ratings to make hiring decision

Unfortunately for Americans, though, not all credit reports are created equal.  And when it comes to actually applying for credit in the form of a new credit card or mortgage, the free reports are worth precisely what they cost.

This is one reason why home buyers should have their credit reviewed by a mortgage lender as soon as possible in the home buying process -- the free reports offered by the major credit bureaus may be misleading and incomplete.

Free credit reports are useful for identifying identity theft and reviewing active accounts but do very little to help a potential creditor gauge your creditworthiness. 

As the chart shows us, each industry's creditors has a way they like to do business and that way is the "standard" way.

(Image courtesy: The Wall Street Journal)

 

RealtyTrac released Q1 2008 foreclosure statistics and the data follows an interesting statistical phenomenon most commonly known as the "80/20 Rule".

The 80/20 Rule states that 80 percent of the effects come from 20 percent of the causes.

In this case, 80 percent of bank repossessions in the first three months of 2008 came from 20 percent of the states in the union.

Accounting for 156,463 repossessed homes nationwide:

  1. California (40,023 homes)
  2. Texas (14,935 homes)
  3. Michigan (12,016 homes)
  4. Ohio (10,299 homes)
  5. Florida (10,185 homes)
  6. Georgia (8,265 homes)
  7. Arizona (7,956 homes)
  8. Colorado (7,022 homes)
  9. Tennessee (4,533 homes)
  10. Indiana (4,446 homes)
  11. Illinois (4,216 homes)

Overall, 0.55 percent of homes were repossessed by banks in the first quarter.

 

The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from its two-day meeting at 2:15 P.M. ET today. 

Markets expect the Fed to lower the Fed Funds Rate by 0.250 percent in its press release but it's not what the Fed does that matters to economy right now. 

It's what the Fed says.

If the Fed states that future rate cuts are needed to stabilize the economy, mortgage rates should rise because rate cuts tend to create inflation.  Inflation is the enemy of mortgage rates.

By contrast, if the Fed states that it will "pause" before making additional rate cuts (or hikes), mortgage rates should fall.

We'll dissect the message in full late this afternoon but the most important message to remember is this:

The Federal Reserve does not directly control mortgage rates. 

The Fed only controls the Fed Funds Rate, the interest rate on a very specific type of loan made from one bank to another.  The Fed Funds Rate, however, is directly related to a consumer-focused interest rate called Prime Rate.

Prime Rate is the basis of interest rates on credit cards and home equity lines of credit.

If the Federal Open Market Committee votes to lower the Fed Funds Rate by a quarter-percent, it means that the interest rate on Americans' collective credit card and home equity line debt will fall by a quarter-percent, too.

 

Subprime mortgages have now been credited for bankrupting well over 110 lenders and seriously damaging operations at many major mortgage firms. They've reportedly wiped out 5 hedge funds, tens of thousands of jobs, and have led to millions of foreclosures with millions more on the way. And, as if that weren't enough, subprime mortgages are also blamed for massive volatility in the stock, bond, credit, futures, and real estate markets here in the US and around the globe. Some say losses in the mortgage securities market alone could reach hundreds of billions of dollars this year.

This means that, for any Americans looking to buy, sell, or refinance a home, they are confronting a very different market from the one that existed just 6-12 months ago.

How did this happen?
The recent real estate boom was fueled by a period of record home appreciation and historically low interest rates. Banks, in order to compete, loosened guidelines and began offering more funding to more borrowers through riskier, non-conforming or "exotic" mortgages.

These ideal lending conditions persisted for several years, supported by high demand, historical real estate data, home prices, and massive trading volume/profits on mortgage-backed securities and other financial instruments on Wall Street.

Then, in 2006, a slowdown in real estate led to a deterioration of home values, an increase in inventories, and ultimately to today's tightening of credit guidelines, leaving many investors unable to sell or refinance out of their existing positions. Many Americans who had tapped into their equity were suddenly tapped-out and overextended as home values fell. Foreclosures followed in record numbers and a re-valuation of mortgage bonds and other financial instruments created the credit/liquidity domino effect we're now experiencing.

Unfortunately, it may get a worse before it gets better. According to the latest estimates, over 2 million subprime and Alt-A adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) holders will face payment increases of up to 30%-100% when their loans reset in the next 2 to 18 months. These loans make up less than 40% of the total mortgage market, but the negative effects, as we have seen, of increased foreclosure activity can have a ripple effect throughout the industry and around the globe.

What does this mean to you and your mortgage?

Sellers: If you're planning on selling your home, be prepared for an even smaller pool of qualified buyers. While some experts predict a settling of this credit crisis over the coming year, tightened credit guidelines and diminishing mortgage products could knock out as many as 15%-30% of potential qualified buyers. Now is not the time to sit and wait for the best possible price. Have a serious talk with your real estate agent. Having experienced buying/selling transactions in your area, he or she can help you price your home accordingly. He or she can also help ensure that your buyers are pre-approved and stay pre-approved throughout the entire transaction.

Buyers: Get pre-approved by your mortgage professional. While there are a lot of great deals out there, getting credit is becoming tougher and tougher, and it's taking longer and longer to complete a transaction. Remember, what you qualify for today could change tomorrow in a volatile market. For those looking to refinance, keep this in mind. There is no time to delay! Communicate with your lender. Don't do anything that could negatively affect your credit, and make sure you get all your documentation in on time.

ARMs Borrowers: If your ARM is scheduled to reset in the next 2-18 months, you need to schedule an appointment with a mortgage professional right away. Whether your ARM is subprime, Alt-A, or even if you have a pre-payment penalty, don't let a default or foreclosure situation sneak up on you. Did you know that your monthly payments can increase anywhere from 30% to 100% once your loan resets? At the very least, give yourself the peace of mind of knowing what your adjusted payment will be.

Borrowers with less-than-perfect credit: Each week it seems lenders are shedding more and more mortgage products. Many lenders have stopped offering No-Doc loans and are reducing all forms of Stated-Income loans. While it might be challenging, borrowers with credit issues need to see a loan expert. Often they have credit repair resources and other strategies to help you reach your financial goals.

There's an important concept to embrace: all markets, while cyclical in nature, are self-correcting, be it credit, real estate, stocks, or bonds. For the last 6 or 7 years, real estate was booming and riding high. The correction we're experiencing now - while it seems harsh and could get much worse - is, in a sense, "natural" and directly related to the extremely loose guidelines and perhaps overzealous lending and leveraging during the boom cycle.

Finally: Purchasing or refinancing a home is one of the largest financial commitments you will make in your lifetime. This is one of the reasons choosing an experienced and professional mortgage consultant is so important. During your life, you will only think about home financing a few times. We think about it every day. It is our profession and our passion and we are ready to work for you to help you achieve the plans and dreams you have envisioned for your future.

Whether you are buying or refinancing a home in the East Valley (Gilbert, Chandler, Mesa, Queen Creek), West Valley (Surprise, Goodyear, Glendale), Phoenix or Scottsdale, it's a big step!  You can trust us to find the loan program that's best for you.

Today, we see a mortgage, more than ever, not as a mortgage loan once was, but instead as a financial instrument that must be integrated into your long and short-term financial plan. Our goal is to help you create a mortgage strategy that builds wealth for your family.

Our Team is committed, qualified and equipped to help you, your friends and family, or clients navigate today's mortgage and credit marketplace.  We are a Mortgage Banker offering FHA / VA / and Conventional Financing. 

 

More than 130 million Americans will receive tax rebates this year as part of Congress' $168 billion economic stimulus package. 

Payments begin in about two weeks and range from $600 for individuals to $1,200 for couples, plus an additional $300 per child.

Not everyone is eligible for a full rebate, however.

For single filers earning more than $75,000 and joint filers earning more than $150,000, the tax rebate is reduced by $50 for each $1,000 of income beyond the limits. 

An individual with no children, therefore, will not receive a tax rebate if income exceeds $87,000 annually.   The IRS provides a tax rebate calculator that can help make sense of the math.

For tax filers using direct deposit, the rebates will be paid based on the last two digits of the social security number:

  • SSN ending in 00-20 will arrive May 2
  • SSN ending in 21-75 will arrive May 9
  • SSN ending in 76-99 will arrive May 16

For tax filers using paper checks instead of direct deposit, payouts begin a little bit later on May 16 and extend through mid-July.  The IRS makes the exact dates known on its Web site.

For late income tax filers, the IRS send rebate checks about two weeks after the returns are processed, but not before the regularly scheduled date.

 

 

 

Every two years, the Jump$tart Coalition issues a "personal finance" exam to high school seniors.

The test highlights the importance of personal financial literacy among America's youth and comes at an especially important juncture. 

Many experts -- including Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke -- believe that basic financial knowledge is essential for (and lacking in) teenagers.  Jump$tart's exam did little to disprove this.

This year, 12th graders answered 48.3% correct on average and posted the lowest scores since Jump$tart first issued the test in 1996.

A sample question from the 31-question test:

Which of the following types of investment would best protect the purchasing power of a family's savings in the event of a sudden increase in inflation?

  1. A twenty-five year corporate bond
  2. A house financed with a fixed-rate mortgage
  3. A 10-year bond issued by a corporation
  4. A certificate of deposit at a bank

Find out the answer to the sample questions and 30 other questions by taking the complete Jump$tart Personal Financial Literacy test for yourself online.

The average adult scores 68%.

 

 

 

The national distribution of credit scores

Getting approved for a conforming home loan is now tougher than before. 

Again.

As home loan defaults mount, government-sponsored financier Fannie Mae has imposed new guidelines on what it will lend and to whom, highlighting the need for a strong credit profile and a downpayment.

In other words, Fannie Mae is outright declining mortgage applicants whose credit is weak and whose payment history shows signs of trouble.  But, it's not just the "fringe" borrowers that are finding it harder to get a mortgage. 

Buyers with strong credit profiles are being hit by new changes, too.

One such change says that owners of second homes must now have a 10 percent equity position in their homes; 15 percent if the property is in a "declining market". 

This is up from 5 and 10 percent, respectively, and represents a growing trend to make homeowners have a "stake" in their own homes.  Downpayment requirements are higher for all mortgage products, in general.

Fannie Mae's changes are the third set of restrictions imposed since December 2007 and more tightening is expected over the next few months.  That makes now a compelling time to buy a home -- borrowing money will be more restrictive (and more costly) later.

If you are actively shopping for homes and have not been pre-qualified in the last few weeks, reach out to your loan officer and get checked against the latest set of mortgage guidelines. 

It's better to know today than after you make an offer.

(Image courtesy: myFico.com)

 

 

 

In three weeks, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet again and markets anticipate another cut to the Fed Funds Rate. 

Based on data compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland at the close of business yesterday, traders put the probabilities of the Fed's next move at:

  • 62 percent chance that the Fed Funds Rate falls to 2.000%
  • 36 percent chance that the Fed Funds Rate falls to 1.750%

Currently, the Fed Funds Rate is 2.250%.

Cuts to the Fed Funds Rate are meant to stimulate the economy by lowering borrowing costs for banks, businesses, and consumers.  When less money is spent on interest payments, more money is available for goods and services and that tends propels the economy forward.

Cuts to the Fed Funds Rate, however, do not equal cuts to mortgage rates. 

Mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage bonds and -- although it exerts an influence -- the Federal Reserve does not set the prices for mortgage bonds any more than it sets the price for other investments such as stocks or mutual funds.

Since September 2007, the Federal Reserve has lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 3 percent.  Over the same period of time, conforming mortgage rates have been mostly unchanged.

 

 
 
Loan Officer: Jeff Underwood (AmeriFirst Financial, Inc. BK#0013635)
Jeff Underwood
Gilbert, AZ
More about me…
AmeriFirst Financial, Inc. BK#0013635

Office Phone: (480) 344-1911
Cell Phone: (480) 452-5626
Email Me
My blog contains updated information on personal finance and mortgages. My passion is to keep consumers and other professionals on the cutting edge of changes in the credit and lending industries.

Links

Tags (Tag Cloud)

Archives

RSS 2.0 Feed for this blog
ATOM 1.0 Feed for this blog

Find AZ real estate agents and Gilbert real estate here on ActiveRain.
Disclaimer: ActiveRain Corp. does not necessarily endorse the real estate agents, loan officers and brokers listed on this site. These real estate profiles, blogs and blog entries are provided here as a courtesy to our visitors to help them make an informed decision when buying or selling a house. ActiveRain Corp. takes no responsibility for the content in these profiles, that are written by the members of this community.
© 2007 ActiveRain Corp. All Rights Reserved