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home sales: Was the December Sales Surge an Aberration or a Trend? - 01/24/11 03:56 PM
 
New numbers reported on CNBC call into question whether the December sales surge of 12.3% was the beginning of an upwards trend for housing or just an aberration, fed by the delays created by the robo-signing controversy and the subsequent reviewing of foreclosure documents.  An article from Diana Olick reports that distressed sales may have comprised as much as 47% of all home sales in December.  And while an increase in sales is welcome, if half is comprised of foreclosures and short sales, especially those previously delayed, then, it may not be indicative of a new and sustainable trend.
 
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home sales: Some Good and Bad News on the Mortgage Interest Deduction - 01/23/11 02:22 PM
 
Much has been said recently about the possibility of eliminating or modifying the amount of mortgage interest homeowners can deduct from their taxable income; however, new information has come to light that may alter the picture.  Here’s some good and bad news on the mortgage interest deduction.
 
An article in the LA Times reports that estimates released by the Joint Committee on Taxation show that the deduction will produce revenue losses significantly less ($88 billion over the next 3 years) than previously estimated; and the reason is both good and bad news.  It seems that declining home prices and … (37 comments)

home sales: Home Sales Slide as Inventory Grows - 11/23/10 02:00 PM
Home Sales Slide as Inventory Grows
According to a report released by the NAR, October existing home sales fell by 2.2%, following an increase of 10% in September. Annualized sales numbers came in near expectations at a rate of 4.43 million. Year-over-year sales are down by more than 25%.
 
While economists and others try to put a positive spin on these numbers, blaming tight credit, the foreclosure moratorium or the end of the homebuyer tax credit; the reality is that the housing market has yet to stabilize or begin a recovery. Many look only at the current inventory of existing … (10 comments)

home sales: An Interesting Look at August Existing Home Inventory - 09/23/10 06:04 PM
As always, Calculated Risk has provided us with an easy to interpret visual of existing home inventory. While inventory declined slightly from July, the more troubling fact is that inventory increased 1.5% year-over-year.  Now that we're entering the fall sales season, we can expect high inventory to place downward pressure on prices.
 
And, as I pointed out in my Predictions Post, “Only a small fraction of loans in default are self-curing today, providing a “shadow inventory” of up to 7 million homes.” Add those into the mix and you have continued bad news for home sellers.
 
A quick … (2 comments)

home sales: Are Homes β€œOn Sale?” - 09/19/10 03:12 PM
In a recent post on Forbes.com, blogger Stephane Fitch describes what he calls, "The Worrisome Rise in Discounted Listings," a reported increase in the number of sellers reducing their prices. And with more than one-fourth of homeowners having taken at least one price reduction, the effects of the weakening market seem apparent.
 
The post describes how some areas in California, once thought to have stabilized, are now seeing further reductions in prices. And while the markdowns may be good news for buyers, they reflect continued weakness in the housing market and the potential for further declines.
 
The Housing Guru: … (12 comments)

home sales: Mixed Results from the Home buyer Tax Credit - 04/27/10 12:49 PM
According to an article in the NY Times, the results of the home buyer tax credit seem to be mixed at best. With the door closing on the credit—buyers must have a viable contract by April 30 and must close by June 30—some areas have seen a recent surge in sales. But many have questioned the cost of the program and whether or not the billions spent might have been more effective if applied to other areas. Most experts agree that the majority of the money has gone to taxpayers who would have purchased anyway.
Read the remainder of the post … (5 comments)

home sales: Repeat Buyer Tax Credit Offering Little Stimulus To Market - 02/28/10 08:44 PM
An article on Yahoo Finance provides yet another example of why artificial attempts to stimulate the housing market are a bad idea. When offered on a grand scale, as in the easy money of the last decade, they only serve to create bubble markets which at some point must collapse. And we’ve all experienced the disasters created by the bursting of such bubbles. And when the offer is more limited, as in the First Time Buyer Tax Credit or Cash for Clunkers, they do little more than “steal” future sales.
 
According to the article, Realtors® around the country are reporting … (11 comments)

home sales: Six Reasons Why the Housing Market Peaks Can Not Return - 02/25/10 03:01 PM
Recent conflicting reports about the housing market and whether or not it is truly in recovery have left consumers as well as those in the real estate business more than a bit confused; those whose business plan is dependent upon a full or quick recovery should proceed with caution. I believe the housing market is far from recovered, and, in fact, will not return to the levels of the past decade for many years—if ever. I see six reasons why the housing market peaks can not return, that it will never regain its past “glory days.”
 
● Robust home sales … (184 comments)

 

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