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unemployment and home sales: What’s the Significance of Predicting a Housing Bottom? - 07/08/11 03:14 PM
With almost 25 million unemployed or underemployed and with consumer confidence feeble at best, what’s the significance of predicting a housing bottom?  Will it mean that home prices have stabilized and that the housing crisis and recession are over?  Does calling a bottom mean those who have been “fence-sitting” will be rushing out to write purchase agreements?  We have to look no further than recent sales activity to see that consumers won’t be enticed into purchasing by pronouncements. 
 
But some financial “experts” have recently stated that housing has finally reached its bottom, that the price declines we’ve seen during … (35 comments)

unemployment and home sales: Jobs Growth and a Housing Market Recovery Are Still Years Away - 01/08/11 05:19 PM
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, speaking before the Senate Budget Committee, stated that “. . . it could take four to five more years for the job market to normalize fully.”  Despite reports of unemployment falling by more than 500,000 to 9.4% in the most recent data from the Labor Department, the jobless rate continues to plague the housing recovery.  And a little digging into the numbers shows that about 400,000 job seekers simply gave up their search.
 
And while the lower unemployment rate created a temporary media buzz, the underlying data gives cause for concern.  With 103,000 nonfarm payroll … (12 comments)

unemployment and home sales: Unemployment and Why Housing Continues to Struggle - 12/03/10 01:36 PM
Unemployment and Why Housing Continues to Struggle
Each month when the Labor Department releases the statistics on unemployment and job creations, the numbers often do little more than confuse. Some months it looks as if they’re improving and others they seem to reflect a recession that won’t leave.
 
The employment numbers as reported often have little significance in the short-term, as they do sometimes fluctuate wildly; and they don’t always paint an accurate picture. For instance, while this month’s report showed an increase in the unemployment number from 9.6% to 9.8%, it only includes those who are actively seeking jobs. … (14 comments)

unemployment and home sales: The Unemployment Numbers in Context - 10/07/10 04:55 PM
The Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its weekly unemployment claims report showing a better than expected drop in total claims; however, I think it’s important that we put the unemployment numbers in context. While new claims fell for the fourth time in the past five weeks, the overall trend is far from indicating a recovery.
 
A quick look at the graph from Calculated Risk of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary (JOLTS) shows how closely “total separations,” the red line, and “hires,” the blue line, are tracking each other. With millions of unemployed and underemployed, and with approximately … (15 comments)

unemployment and home sales: Let’s Call It Like It Is—It’s Not A Recovery - 02/18/10 08:22 AM
Following its most recent meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has issued a statement of its projections about the economy, but instead of “sugar coating” or garbling the message, let’s call it like it is—it’s not a recovery. Chairman Bernanke had already warned us to expect a “jobless recovery,” but exactly what is that? Isn’t that just another way of saying, no recovery? Those without jobs or who are bringing home smaller paychecks or whose employment remains precarious, would have difficulty agreeing that their financial picture is recovering.
 
For those of us in real estate related businesses, the FOMC … (16 comments)

unemployment and home sales: What Do The Employment Statistics Really Mean? - 01/09/10 09:22 AM
Okay, we’ve heard that the jobless rate increased in December, but what do the employment statistics really mean? Friday’s employment report indicated that nonfarm payrolls fell by 85,000 workers, with total job losses for 2009 standing at more than 4 million. Additionally, the report indicated that the November number had been revised to show a gain of 4,000 jobs. Some reports seem to place a positive spin on the numbers, pointing out that the overall unemployment rate failed to climb above 10%, and that December was the fifth consecutive month that hiring at temporary help services has increased.
 
So, what … (20 comments)

unemployment and home sales: The Effect Of Unemployment Upon Housing For 2010 - 10/02/09 07:34 AM
For the eighth consecutive month, year over year job losses have increased in all 372 U.S. metropolitan areas, and many are concerned about the effect of unemployment upon housing for 2010. How do job losses relate to the recovery and, more importantly, to the coming year? As a lagging indicator, employment is said to follow the economy, so it’s logical that we not expect joblessness to decline until the economy is improving. However, while employment may follow economic trends, it is an important indicator of what we can expect in the short term; and the relationship to the housing market is … (96 comments)

 

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