Every week you can expose your blog article by submitting it to the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival. That is a new link back to your story every week that you post one (or more). For consumers, the carnival is a plethora of great new real estate market reports from around the country.
The Sixth edition of the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival has just been posted. Each time we have assembled some of the best real estate market reports from all over the United States (and this week beyond!).
This is the ninth of a series of blogs that are hosted at different sites each week, thus sending links back to the real estate blogging community from all over the internet. Thus far, the first nine carnivals have been a great success and many new links back to a bunch of AR bloggers have been created.
If you missed any of the past Blog Carnivals, you can catch them here:
We have been watching inventories continue to rise in the residential real estate market for a very long time, going back to 2005. The Tallahassee Real Estate Blog has been instructing readers that the first sign of change in the housing market should be noted when inventory levels begin to fall on a long-term trend. I can say, with cautious optimism, that we are starting to see our long-term trend move to falling inventories in the Tallahassee real estate market.
Tallahassee Housing Inventory Falls On Short Term Trend
The thirty day trend is a look at what we have been seeing, on average, during the past thirty days. On average, the Tallahassee real estate market has seen more than four homes per day (NET) leave the market over the past thirty days. That means the number of homes for sale in Tallahassee is roughly 130 fewer homes today than it was at this time last month.
Long Term Trend Positive For Tallahassee Home Inventory
Just as the thirty day trend is positive, the 180 day trend is also showing a reduction of Tallahassee homes for sale. The 180 day trend is showing 2.5 fewer homes for sale in Tallahassee each day, meaning that over the past 6 months, the inventory of homes has fallen by 450 homes!
Home Selling Success Rates In Tallahassee Starting To Fall
Part of the reduction in home inventories is due to an increase in home selling success rates. The following graph measures the trend of homes sold versus homes listed for sale each day. What we are looking for is the direction of the trend line, as opposed to the absolute value at any given point.
Using the graph above, we can see the all the trends were near the upper thirties (34% - 40%) when our measurement began in mid-June of this year. Sales success rates rose up around the 45% range (meaning 45% of the homes listed were selling) by the end of August, but we are now seeing that number begin to decline.
I suspect when we observe this graph near the end of February, the trends will be in the low thirties again. Whether or not this fall is enough to turn around the inventory reduction remains to be seen. Stay tuned to the Tallahassee real estate blog for updates, or you can check our regularly updated “Market Bulletin” for charts, graphs, and analysis of the Tallahassee real estate market.
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to myblog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
The past six days have seen more visitors to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog than any other similar period of time in our real estate blog’s short life. I suspect that since we are facing the largest financial crisis this country has seen since the Great Depression, people want to know what is really going on, and in simple, non-political terms.
Today’s blog is the third part of our investigation into the $700B bailout that our Federal Government has been exploring. Just as a review, we have already covered
So today, we’ll try to understand why nothing has been passed and what the current edition of the new plan is trying to accomplish.
If you recall from the initial blog in this series, Bailing Out The Banks? Actually Bailing Out America!, the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog headed down this road as a result of reading a great letter written by Jay Hill - Tallahassee Commercial Mortgage Lender, just 4 days ago. Well, Jay is at it again and has written a follow-up letter due to his frustration with the entire mess. And for those of you who missed the first blog written on the $700B Bailout, I want to reiterate that I respect Jay’s intellect and insight in the money markets and I think our readers have much to gain from his view.
Political Posturing Is Slowing The $700B Bailout
The first thing that I sensed when reading Jay’s most recent letter was his frustration at the political posturing that is occurring. He feels that we are in dire need for a solution and too many politicians are more focused on their careers than on fixing the problem. Jay’s recommendation for the name of the new plan should be the “I Have to Get Re-Elected and I Am Not Going To Stick My Neck Out Plan.”
The Original $700B Bailout Plan
The original plan was devised by Hank Paulsen (Federal Reserve Chairman). Mr. Paulsen estimated that $700B was the right amount of infusion (it would take a few PhD holders to write a series of blogs to explain how the exact figure was determined) to offset the new estimate of loan defaults that will be plaguing our financial markets over the next few years.
The $700B Bailout Was Designed to Kill 3 Birds With 1 Stone
Save - But Not Reward - The Wall Street Buzzard The $700B bailout would provide liquidity to the credit markets which would provide cash to cover/issue lines of credit for payroll, thus saving many of the Wall Street Giants that have been going under. This would not be “giving them” anything, rather the government would be buying these pools of loans for forty cents (or less) on the dollar. This infusion keeps the Wall Street Buzzards alive, but punishes them will huge losses for playing the Subprime game.
Establish A Floor - The Real Estate Penguin The problem with the penguin is that no matter how hard he tries, he just can’t get off the ground. This part of the plan would have brought a floor to the “fire sale” mode in which the banks are currently operating in an effort to move these properties off their balance sheets. Remember, if the Federal Government owns the pool of loans, it can set the sales price of the foreclosed ones to a point that helps stabilize the market.
Assist In A Work-Out Plan - The Homeowner Turkey All of the homeowners who are currently in the process of foreclosure would be given time (freeze the foreclosure) to establish a work-out plan. While it is certain that some of the loans in foreclosure might be due to ill-advised loans, there are still many more that can be modified under a different, but fair structure, that would allow the homeowner to save their home.
The $700B Bailout Is For John Q. Citizen
This is an important time in our country’s history. Our politicians have to take a “commercial time out” from their routine of posturing and picture taking and actually sit down and work together to straighten this whole thing out.
The media calls the whole mess a “Bailout for Wall Street,” but we are soon to find that this is fact is a “Bailout for the U.S. Economy.” When people start to lose their jobs because no credit is available for payroll, it will be too late to save them. John Q. Citizen needs this bailout way more than a few fat-cats on Wall Street. Remember, a billionaire who loses millions of dollars can still buy groceries tomorrow, but is the same true for our average American who loses his or her job?
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to myblog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
Yesterday’s real estate blog article on the $700B Government bailout of the financial markets created some good discussion. The article focused on why it was critical to the United States that we do the bailout, but it did not go into great detail as to how we ended up in this position. There has been a great cartoon-style presentation roaming around the email system for the past year that does a humorously great job explaining how we got here. It is unsigned, so we will just give credit to “Author Unknown.”
Please note that this cartoon does an excellent job of explaining how we got to this point, but some of the language used in the cartoon is vulgar and offensive to some readers. If you are highly sensitive to offensive language, I would recommend that you do not move forward, but if you can handle a few bad words, then you should click-through to the actual real estate blog site so that you can enjoy the long, but excellent cartoon and summary.
Today’s Tallahassee real estate blog is going to be completely different than most our readers have come to expect. I will summarize a letter that I received from Jay Hill of Hill Commercial Capital, explaining in layman’s terms why the big bailout had to occur. I respect Jay’s intellect and insight in the money markets and I think our readers have much to gain from his view.
There Is More Than One Type Of Bank
In order to understand the mess the credit markets are in, one must understand how the tier of banks exist in our country. They are:
Commercial Banks - These are the large banks that work by taking deposits from consumers and converting them into loans with interest as profit plus a reward to the depositors. Such banks include Credit Suisse, Key Bank, and the Royal Bank of Canada.
Investment Banks - These are the large “Wall Street” banks that you hear and read about in the financial news all of the time. They are banks like Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers, and JP Morgan. They most often work as an intermediary between buyers and sellers of stocks and bonds.
Mortgage Banks - These are the banks that originates, sells and services mortgage loans. Such banks include Countrywide, Washington Mutual, IndyMac, and Wells Fargo.
Local and Regional Banks - These are the commercial banks that exist more on “Main Street” than on “Wall Street.” In Tallahassee, you might know these as BB&T, FMB, Wakulla Bank, Superior Bank and Prime Meridian, to name a few. They will not be any part of the “Bailout,” but they certainly should be (as you will later see).
The Chronology Of The Banking System Failure
Commercial and Investment Banks urged Mortgage Banks to make home loans - The top tier of banks (the Commercial and Investment Banks) enticed the lower tier banks to generate more home loans. In some cases, they were even providing the capital for them to make the home loans.
Residential Mortgage Backed Securities (RMBS) were created To Send Money From Commercial and Investment Banks to Mortgage Banks - In order to facilitate greater mortgage market investment, the Commercial and Investment banks created RMBS to broaden the range of potential investors of mortgage pools by increasing the capital available to GNMA, FHLMC, FNMA.
Tranches were introduced and categorized by risk, reducing origination liability - RMBS pools together mortgages and separates them into short, medium and long term positions (called tranches). Tranches are set up to pay different rates of interest depending upon their maturity and structure.
Rating Agencies rated each Tranch, but based ratings on faulty logic - In order to create these tranches, rating agencies used 1990s housing data to predict loan defaults. The best quality loans (where borrower had a greater likelihood of repaying the loan) received the highest ratings, while the opposite end of the spectrum received the lowest ratings.
Booming Mortgage Business lead to competitive pressures creating “crazy” loans -The additional liquidity provided by RMBS created a market frenzy, introducing loans that had not previously existed. Loans requiring little or no documentation were created, as were loans with teaser rates that doubled or more after a year. As lending standards dropped to satisfy a hungrier RMBS pool, the credit ratings formula based upon 1990s default rates, was not adjusted. This means that the inevitable increase of defaults from new “junk” loans was never priced into the market.
Commercial and Investment Banks were also buying Commercial Mortgaged Backed Securities (CMBS) “Conduit Loans” in the commercial real estate industry. These were similar to RMBS, but lent on a much tighter lending guidelines -Ironically, the CMBS market saw little, if any, of the crazy junk loans that sprouted up in the RBMS market. Unfortunately, when the market started seeing the default rates rise in the residential mortgage market, the tremors were felt in the commercial markets.
Lack of Control in the Ratings and Valuation Process Create A Self-Corrupting Market - The loan ratings were not adjust to keep up with the new loan products. Higher default rates should have been incorporated into the valuation process of the newly originated loans, but instead, historical data provided by the Commercial and Investment Banks were used by the rating agencies as “sufficient” data. Jay Hill used the analogy of the students writing the test for which the teachers would grade them as an expression of how broken the credit rating system was.
Mortgage Banks Ignore Obvious Signs Of Trouble and continue originating new loans - Because the RMBS process created such great liquidity, Mortgage Banks continued to write new loans as fast as they could. Banks like IndyMac, Coutrywide and Washington Mutual knew they were going to sell the originated loans as quickly as they could write them, therefore lending standards were ignored. Since everybody was certain the newly written loans would be purchased, they had no fear of holding loans that they could not sell.
RMBS freezes, locking up the entire credit pipeline -Finally, when the losses were too staggering for the RMBS market to consume, it completely froze. The Mortgage Banks with loans to sell no longer had buyers. The liquidity from the RMBS was no longer available and banks such as Coutnrywide, Washington Mutual and IndyMac literally ran out of money.
The $700 Billion Bailout Is required to free-up capital for the commercial lines which run this country
It’s not just home mortgages that are frozen. The U.S. trades on credit. The CMBS markets have been slowed and they help finance business credit lines. The reason why this Bailout has to happen is that it is not just bad mortgage lending that is seized up… it’s also lines of credit for businesses, major manufacturers’ lines of credit that they use to operate on a daily basis, borrowing and paying up and down lines to transact business every day. On a large scale, that’s Ford Motor Company’s payroll that comes in on lines of credit to cover the individual payroll of the workers. If that market tightens any further and seizes up, it will have an unmanageable trickle-down effect to the pocket book of every individual. It’s going to seize up the ability of the major manufacturers, the major employers, to function on a day-to-day basis. Retailers use those lines of credit to buy goods from wholesalers. They buy all of their goods on credit! You see, it’s not “Bailing Out The Banks” it is “Bailing Out America.“
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to myblog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
This is the final “installment” on a three part blog series that was dedicated to predicting home sales in the real estate market for 2009 and beyond. Readers have provided great feedback and it has been a good discussion.
Population and Home Sales Correlation
Only time will tell if there truly is a measurable correlation between homes sales and population. Again, we must believe that in most cases, heavily populated areas will have more home sales than less populated areas. By tracking this ratio over time, we can create a graph that is similar to this:
In this graph, we show peaks and valleys that are caused by the “Outside Influencers” discussed in the previous posts about predicting housing supply.The peaks and valleys get worked back towards the expected value as the market adjusts to those new conditions. For example, if interest rates shot up to 15%, home sales would drop immediately. But over time, home values would drop until home sales returned to the activity level that is “expected” for that population.
I appreciate all the feedback we received, both in comments on this blog as well as emails and phone calls. I would encourage all readers to “click through” to the actual blog and leave their comments and suggestions there so as to stimulate even more discussion.
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to myblog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
Having posted my real estate blog article on predicting future home sales, I am encouraged to see the great feedback that readers are providing. For the most part, it appears that readers accept the notion that homes sales correlate to population and population change. However, there are some great points made by readers which challenge the veracity of the model. So today we’ll take a look at the feedback and see if we can’t further the discussion / exploration of a model that will help us anticipate the number of home sales in Tallahassee for the coming years.
Super Insight Into Tallahassee Real Estate
We received some great feedback from yesterdays real estate blog and I strongly recommend you review the feedback. Much of it was as insightful as anything that I have posted. Here are a few snippets that I will focus upon today:
Lending Restrictions Will Affect Real Estate Sales
From Dave: “One thing that I think is important to investigate is your “control” group of the 1990s. In your summary paragraph, you suggested that this group (1990s) may not be indicative of “normal”. Personally, I believe that in the next few years lending restrictions and tightening credit could cause a buyer squeeze that is vastly different than what the buyers of the “control” group experienced.“
From Steve #2: “I noticed that the period above the trend line for the discretionary purchasers also coincides with the period where interest rates were low. To graph that would be difficult, because you’d need an inverse of interest rate to make it work.“
Both Dave and Steve make great points. Using the 1990s as the control group was arbitrary, but it was also my only option. Accurate data on home sales is not available for years prior to 1991 (to my knowledge). However, if this model were maintained and updated for the next 50 years, the “expected home sales ratio” would continually adjust and would be accurate.
Steve’s point about the higher activity of discretionary purchasers during great interest rate cycles is supported in this model. When I covered the concept of “Outside Influencers,” mortgage interest rates was high on that list. This is normal and this is why we see peaks and valleys in the discretionary buying cycle.
Tallahassee Real Estate Is A Local Market
From Steve #1: “we have to throw out the old paradigm that “all real estate is local.” That paradigm worked well in the days before NINJA loans and subprime securitization. Now, the macro environment will have a much bigger effect on our local market than ever before.“
From Chuck: “I think another 10 years of sales/census data would be helpful…27 years, versus 17 years…although one could make a case for the current crissis and subsequent Fed remedies being “new and different”. Here’s a question for you: I was once taught that RE tends to have 7 year cycles…it would seem to fit with your graph somewhat…what do you think?“
From Steve #1: “The Mainstream Media will flood us with constant and relentless negative stories about real estate for years to come. This is bound to influence prospective buyers - especially first-time homebuyers. There is already a negative perception growing about real estate; imagine what it will be like after reading two more years about poor, hapless victims facing foreclosure after their jobs got outsourced to a Third-World country.“
As usual, Steve #1 brings some strong insight to this discussion. But rather than refuting the model, again I see these points supporting the outside influencers. Tallahassee’s housing market, like all others, is made up of owner-occupied homes and rentals. The reason that we say that real estate is local is because the owner-occupied portion of our market is more than 1/2 the homes. Of the tenant properties in town, many of them are owned by local investors.
But Steve is right, more and more of the investment money streaming into the Tallahassee real estate market is coming from well outside of here. To say the real estate is purely “local” would be wrong and the investment side of the business is becoming less and less local each year. So how does this affect the model….. not at all. If the population is growing, more homes will sell. More tenants or more owner occupants will be entering the market. If the population is shrinking, I believe the opposite is true.
Employment Opportunities Affect Tallahassee Population
From Steve #1: “Florida’s economy is going to be really hurt by this downturn. The State will lose millions in both property tax revenues and sales tax revenues. We all know what happens in Tallahassee when the State loses significant amounts of revenues. Tallahassee’s unemployment rate is great right now, but I don’t think that will continue. I’m already hearing about some downsizing.“
Again, Steve makes an observation with which I completely agree, our economy is getting crunched by this downturn. If the downturn leads to unemployment as Steve suggests, then I believe lost jobs will reduce our rate of population growth (and maybe lead to population reduction). This is also fundamentally supported by the model.
Visit The Tallahassee Real Estate Blog Tomorrow
Please read tomorrow’s conclusion to this great topic. Due to time constraints, I will have to finish it tomorrow. Any feedback posted here that is relevant will be covered tomorrow, so please comment below.
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to myblog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
Today is the big day. Today, in this real estate blog, I reveal my “prediction” for the real estate market in the coming years. I invite your criticism, support, arguments, and/or feedback in any capacity. You see, I have developed a theory that there is a measurable correlation between population and home sales, and that both can be measured and the results used as a “guide” to determine the direction that the real estate market is seeking.
Real Estate Theory Assumptions
There is a measurable correlation between home sales and population size
In every commodities market (in this case real estate) buyers fall into one of two categories, discretionary and non-discretionary.
Outside influencers make the market imperfect, but the market will always seek to return to “normal,” which is defined as the expected ratio between home sales and population.
Correlation Between Home Sales And Population Size
Common sense tells us that markets that have more people should also have more home sales. Therefore, if a market has 1,000,000 people residing in it, then it will most likely see more home sales than a market which hosts a population of 100,000.
With this in mind, I decided to run a comparison of the number of homes sold and population size for the 1990s in the Tallahassee real estate market. I found there was an apparent “norm” of about 2% (meaning the number of homes sold each year could be expressed as 2% of the market population). So if the Tallahassee real estate market has 250,000 residents, we should, on average, expect about 5,000 home sales.
Discretionary Versus Non-Discretionary Buyers
For the purpose of this theory, I am going to place all potential home buyers into one of two groups:
Discretionary buyers do not have to buy. They buy a home in Tallahassee because they want to move. They are motivated by value and purchase only when they want to purchase.
Non-discretionary buyers need to buy. They have a life event that will cause them to move (relocation, job change, less income, etc.). Whether these “buyers” buy or rent, they fill the same position … they are a home consumer. If they choose to rent, somebody else is buying the home and leasing it to them.
Outside Influencers Make The Real Estate Market Imperfect
Simply put, we know that no math formula will tell us exactly how many homes will sell each year. There are too many variables (interest rates, loan programs, housing supply, consumer confidence, other commodity strengths, jobs, economy, etc.) that play a large part in how the housing market does on a year-to-year basis. But over time, this theory assumes that the market will seek to come back to “normal,” which in the case of Tallahassee is the 2% of the population level.
The Geeky Math Graph Of Tallahassee Real Estate
Now that I have covered the basic rules of this theory, let’s graph them and try to see where the Tallahassee real estate market should be heading.
The Six Keys to Understanding The Tallahassee Real Estate Market Graph
Looking at the horizontal axis, we see the dates run from 1991 (actual figures) to 2011 (projected figures).
The population is represented by the dark blue fill and displayed on the right vertical axis. While all years are estimates from the U.S. census, the 2008-2011 still have to be verified in during the 2010 census. Many people are projecting an upwards adjustment to our population figures, which would result in an upward estimate of home sales using this model (theory).
Non-discretionary buyers are an estimated amount each year and are represented in bright red of each vertical measurement.
Discretionary buyers are an estimated amount each year and are represented in maroon of each vertical measurement.
Total buyers are the combination of the bright red and maroon bars. For the years 1991 through 2007, these are real, measured figures. For 2008, I have annualized the January through August actual figures and this final number should be pretty close to what occurs in the Tallahassee housing market.
The pink line represents the amount of home sales (total buyers) that the market “expected” each year, based upon the 2% of population equation. Since the market population is growing, we anticipate that over time, home sales will grow as well.
Why Tallahassee Home Sales Will Be Low For Three More Years
If you have followed the assumptions laid out up to this point and you have studied the Tallahassee real estate graph above, then you can see that we have spent many years (6) with more home sales than the model expects. As a matter of fact, the years 2001 through 2006 created an “over balance” of 8,612 home sales that now must be absorbed by the market.
Discretionary buyers were out in full force during the 2001 through 2006 years, and I suspect they will be fairly dormant until 2012. I suspect that we will see less than 3,600 home sales in Tallahassee each year from 2008 through 2011, and just over 4,000 home sales in 2012.
If the outside influencers spark our market, then the recovery will be less severe, but will take significantly longer. If there is any accuracy to this model, then the market needs to absorb the additional 8,612 home sales. Since most markets “over react,” I suspect this will occur over the next three years.
What Will Happen To Home Values In Tallahassee
If you are a regular visitor to this blog, then you are aware that home prices have declined in Tallahassee over the past few years. The “average home price” has remained fairly stable, but we have demonstrated that while the price is the same, the actual “average home” has changed. Buyers are buying more home for the same money.
We track the inventory of homes for sale in Tallahassee every day on our Tallahassee Real Estate Market Bulletin. By paying attention to the inventory levels, our readers will know when the market turns from a Buyers market to a Sellers market, and when we should expect to see home values rise again.
If you are a home owner who needs to sell, price your wisely. If you do not need to sell, take your home off the market until conditions are more favorable. Again, you can know when this occurs by following our Real Estate Market Bulletin.
What Is Your Prediction For Tallahassee Home Sales?
So I’ve laid all my cards on the table. This will be available on this site for many years to come and you will be able to refer back to it to congratulate me (or mock me). But I want to know what you think too! Is my model realistic? Too simplistic? Did I leave too many factors out? Are my assumptions bogus (for example, I’m using the 1990s as my control set, what if that decade was really good or really bad?). Please comment below and let me know!
As a reminder for those who subscribe to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog by email, some embedded pictures and videos might not be appearing in your email and you might need to click the title header to go to your browser where all will be visible. Additionally, if you would like to respond (leave a comment) to this article, you will need to “click through” to the blog site to post your feedback.
If you like this Article then please subscribe to myblog through a full RSS feed, or you can . You will be able to stay informed about the happenings in the Tallahassee Real Estate Market. You can also subscribe to this blog and have it delivered by Email.
Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
Having just experienced the toughest year in real estate brokerage since before 1991, my thoughts have already turned to 2009 and beyond, wondering what the future has in store for this battered real estate market. As the eternal optimist, an old, favorite John Dryden quotes comes to mind “Fight on, my merry men all, I’m a little wounded, but I am not slain; I will lay me down for to bleed a while, Then I’ll rise and fight with you again.“
Home Sales Down To Levels Lower Than 1991
While home prices have remained relatively strong, the number of home sales in Tallahassee has dropped to a level not seen since prior to 1991. Why is 1991 my “beginning point?” That is the year that I entered the Tallahassee real estate market and therefore do not have data prior to that point.
With the number of homes sales in Tallahassee dropping so severely, one might wonder how the average sales price continues to remain so stable. For those of you who visit here often, you already know my thoughts on that. In a nutshell, buyers still have the means (stable jobs and low interest rates) to pay the same for a home, they are merely buying “more home” rather than pay less for the same home. The average home today, while similar in price to the average home two years ago, is a bigger home. Home prices are dropping, and I have presented proof that Tallahassee home prices are dropping in a previous blog.
The Future Of The Tallahassee Real Estate Market
So we have reviewed the fact that the number of home sales has dropped and home prices have dropped, but what do we have in store for us in the coming years? When is this market going to turn? What will 2009 - 2011 look like in the Tallahassee real estate market? Well …
I Am Looking For Reader Feedback
I want to know what you think. For the most part, you either live or own property in Tallahassee, or you are highly interested in real estate for you to be reading this blog. Give us some feedback in the comments below (if you are an email subscriber, click through to the blog to post your feedback) and tell us what you think the market will do. Will unit sales be stronger? Will home prices continue to drop? And here is why I want to see your comments today….
Tallahassee Real Estate Market Prediction 2009-2011
Tomorrow will be the “Mack-Daddy” Blog Of The Year. I will provide a thesis and quantitative support for where I see the market heading over the next three years. It will surprise you. It will astound you. You absolutely must tune in to tomorrow’s real estate blog to find out about the future of the Tallahassee real estate market.
Happy Birthday Bubba
He might be Dr. Bo Manausa to you, but he’s always been “Bubba” to me! If you happen to be in Baton Rouge, LA and bump into my brother Bo, please wish him a “Happy Birthday.” He turned 29 years-young today!
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Joe Manausa is a real estate investor and the Broker and Co-Owner of Century 21 First Realty. He can be reached via e-mail through the Tallahassee Real Estate Website or catch his latest writings on the Tallahassee Florida Real Estate Blog , or by calling (850) 386-2001.
Every week you can expose your blog article by submitting it to the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival. That is a new link back to your story every week that you post one (or more). For consumers, the carnival is a plethora of great new real estate market reports from around the country.
The Sixth edition of the Real Estate Market Reports Blog Carnival has just been posted. Each time we have assembled some of the best real estate market reports from all over the United States (and this week beyond!).
This is the sixth of a series of blogs that are hosted at different sites each week, thus sending links back to the real estate blogging community from all over the internet. Thus far, the first six carnivals have been a great success and many new links back to a bunch of AR bloggers have been created.
If you missed any of the past Blog Carnivals, you can catch them here:
The past six days have seen more visitors to the Tallahassee Real Estate Blog than any other similar period of time in our real estate blog’s short life. I suspect that since we are facing the largest financial crisis this country has seen since the Great Depression, people want to know what is really going on, and in simple, non-political terms.
Having posted my 
